Modelling and Forecasting Property Rents and Returns (summary section only)

Recently, focus of real estate investment has expanded from the building-specific level to the aggregate portfolio level. The portfolio perspective requires investment analysis for real estate which is comparable with that of other asset classes, such as stocks and bonds. Thus, despite its distinctive features, such as heterogeneity, high unit value, illiquidity and the use of valuations to measure performance, real estate should not be considered in isolation. This means that techniques which are widely used for other assets classes can also be applied to real estate. An important part of investment strategies which support decisions on multi-asset portfolios is identifying the fundamentals of movements in property rents and returns, and predicting them on the basis of these fundamentals. The main objective of this thesis is to find the key drivers and the best methods for modelling and forecasting property rents and returns in markets which have experienced structural changes. The Finnish property market, which is a small European market with structural changes and limited property data, is used as a case study. The findings in the thesis show that is it possible to use modern econometric tools for modelling and forecasting property markets. The thesis consists of an introduction part and four essays. Essays 1 and 3 model Helsinki office rents and returns, and assess the suitability of alternative techniques for forecasting these series. Simple time series techniques are able to account for structural changes in the way markets operate, and thus provide the best forecasting tool. Theory-based econometric models, in particular error correction models, which are constrained by long-run information, are better for explaining past movements in rents and returns than for predicting their future movements. Essay 2 proceeds by examining the key drivers of rent movements for several property types in a number of Finnish property markets. The essay shows that commercial rents in local markets can be modelled using national macroeconomic variables and a panel approach. Finally, Essay 4 investigates whether forecasting models can be improved by accounting for asymmetric responses of office returns to the business cycle. The essay finds that the forecast performance of time series models can be improved by introducing asymmetries, and the improvement is sufficient to justify the extra computational time and effort associated with the application of these techniques.

Constructing a Community : Myths and Realities of the Open Development Model

The open development model of software production has been characterized as the future model of knowledge production and distributed work. Open development model refers to publicly available source code ensured by an open source license, and the extensive and varied distributed participation of volunteers enabled by the Internet. Contemporary spokesmen of open source communities and academics view open source development as a new form of volunteer work activity characterized by hacker ethic and bazaar governance . The development of the Linux operating system is perhaps the best know example of such an open source project. It started as an effort by a user-developer and grew quickly into a large project with hundreds of user-developer as contributors. However, in hybrids , in which firms participate in open source projects oriented towards end-users, it seems that most users do not write code. The OpenOffice.org project, initiated by Sun Microsystems, in this study represents such a project. In addition, the Finnish public sector ICT decision-making concerning open source use is studied. The purpose is to explore the assumptions, theories and myths related to the open development model by analysing the discursive construction of the OpenOffice.org community: its developers, users and management. The qualitative study aims at shedding light on the dynamics and challenges of community construction and maintenance, and related power relations in hybrid open source, by asking two main research questions: How is the structure and membership constellation of the community, specifically the relation between developers and users linguistically constructed in hybrid open development? What characterizes Internet-mediated virtual communities and how can they be defined? How do they differ from hierarchical forms of knowledge production on one hand and from traditional volunteer communities on the other? The study utilizes sociological, psychological and anthropological concepts of community for understanding the connection between the real and the imaginary in so-called virtual open source communities. Intermediary methodological and analytical concepts are borrowed from discourse and rhetorical theories. A discursive-rhetorical approach is offered as a methodological toolkit for studying texts and writing in Internet communities. The empirical chapters approach the problem of community and its membership from four complementary points of views. The data comprises mailing list discussion, personal interviews, web page writings, email exchanges, field notes and other historical documents. The four viewpoints are: 1) the community as conceived by volunteers 2) the individual contributor s attachment to the project 3) public sector organizations as users of open source 4) the community as articulated by the community manager. I arrive at four conclusions concerning my empirical studies (1-4) and two general conclusions (5-6). 1) Sun Microsystems and OpenOffice.org Groupware volunteers failed in developing necessary and sufficient open code and open dialogue to ensure collaboration thus splitting the Groupware community into volunteers we and the firm them . 2) Instead of separating intrinsic and extrinsic motivations, I find that volunteers unique patterns of motivations are tied to changing objects and personal histories prior and during participation in the OpenOffice.org Lingucomponent project. Rather than seeing volunteers as a unified community, they can be better understood as independent entrepreneurs in search of a collaborative community . The boundaries between work and hobby are blurred and shifting, thus questioning the usefulness of the concept of volunteer . 3) The public sector ICT discourse portrays a dilemma and tension between the freedom to choose, use and develop one s desktop in the spirit of open source on one hand and the striving for better desktop control and maintenance by IT staff and user advocates, on the other. The link between the global OpenOffice.org community and the local end-user practices are weak and mediated by the problematic IT staff-(end)user relationship. 4) Authoring community can be seen as a new hybrid open source community-type of managerial practice. The ambiguous concept of community is a powerful strategic tool for orienting towards multiple real and imaginary audiences as evidenced in the global membership rhetoric. 5) The changing and contradictory discourses of this study show a change in the conceptual system and developer-user relationship of the open development model. This change is characterized as a movement from hacker ethic and bazaar governance to more professionally and strategically regulated community. 6) Community is simultaneously real and imagined, and can be characterized as a runaway community . Discursive-action can be seen as a specific type of online open source engagement. Hierarchies and structures are created through discursive acts. Key words: Open Source Software, open development model, community, motivation, discourse, rhetoric, developer, user, end-user

Molecular diagnosis of developmental disorders

ABSTRACT Idiopathic developmental disorders (DDs) affect ~1% of the population worldwide. This being a considerable amount, efforts are being made to elucidate the disease mechanisms. One or several genetic factors cause 30-40% of DDs, and only 10% are caused by environmental factors. The remaining 50% of DD patients go undiagnosed, mostly due to a lack of diagnostic techniques. The cause in most undiagnosed cases is though to be a genetic factor or a combination of genetic and environmental factors. Despite the surge of new technologies entering the market, their implementation into diagnostic laboratories is hampered by costs, lack of information about the expected diagnostic yield, and the wide range of selection. This study evaluates new microarray methods in diagnosing idiopathic DDs, providing information about their added diagnostic value. Study I analysed 150 patients by array comparative genomic hybridization (array CGH, 44K and 244K), with a subsequent 18% diagnostic yield. These results are supported by other studies, indicating an enourmous added diagnostic value of array CGH, compared with conventional cytogenetic analysis. Nevertheless, 80% of the patients remained undiagnosed in Study I. In an effort to diagnose more patients, in Study IV the resolution was increased from 8.9 Kb of the 244K CGH array to 0.7 Kb, by using a single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array. However, no additional pathogenic changes were detected in the 35 patients assessed, and thus, for diagnostic purposes, an array platform with ca 9 Kb resolution appears adequate. The recent vast increase in reports of detected aberrations and associated phenotypes has enabled characterization of several new syndromes first based on a common aberration and thereafter by delineation of common clinical characteristics. In Study II, a familial deletion at 9q22.2q22.32 with variable penetrance was described. Despite several reports of aberrations in the adjacent area at 9q associated with Gorlin syndrome, the patients in this family had a unique phenotype and did not present with the syndrome. In Study III, a familial duplication of chromosome 6p22.2 was described. The duplication caused increased expression of an important enzyme of the γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA) degradation pathway, causing oxidative stress of the brain, and thus, very likely, the mild mental retardation of these patients. These two case studies attempted to pinpoint candidate genes and to resolve the pathogenic mechanism causing the clinical characteristics of the patients. Presenting rare genetic and clinical findings to the international science and medical community enables interpretation of similar findings in other patients. The added value of molecular karyotyping in patients with idiopathic DD is evident. As a first line of testing, arrays with a median resolution of at least 9 Kb should be considered and further characterization of detected aberrations undertaken when possible. Diagnostic whole-exome sequencing may be the best option for patients who remain undiagnosed after high-resolution array analysis.