Climate forcing on avian life history

In the 21st century, human-induced global climate change has been highlighted as one of the most serious threats to ecosystems worldwide. According to global climate scenarios, the mean temperature in Finland is expected to increase by 1.8 4.0°C by the end of the century. The regional and seasonal change in temperature has predicted to be spatially and temporally asymmetric, where the High-Arctic and Antarctic areas and winter and spring seasons have been projected to face the highest temperature increase. To understand how species respond to the ongoing climate change, we need to study how climate affects species in different phases of their life cycle. The impact of climate on breeding and migration of eight large-sized bird species was studied in this thesis, taking food availability into account. The findings show that climatic variables have considerable impact on the life-history traits of large-sized birds in northern Europe. The magnitude of climatic effects on migration and breeding was comparable with that of food supply, conventionally regarded as the main factor affecting these life-history traits. Based on the results of this thesis and the current climate scenarios, the following not mutually exclusive responses are possible in the near future. Firstly, asymmetric climate change may result in a mistiming of breeding because mild winters and early spring may lead to earlier breeding, whereas offspring are hatching into colder conditions which elevate mortality. Secondly, climate induced responses can differ between species with different breeding tactics (income vs. capital breeding), so that especially capital breeders can gain advantage on global warming as they can sustain higher energy resources. Thirdly, increasing precipitation has the potential to reduce the breeding success of many species by exposing nestlings to more severe post-hatching conditions and hampering the hunting conditions of parents. Fourthly, decreasing ice cover and earlier ice-break in the Baltic Sea will allow earlier spring migration in waterfowl. In eiders, this can potentially lead to more productive breeding. Fifthly, warming temperatures can favour parents preparing for breeding and increase nestling survival. Lastly, the climate-induced phenological changes in life history events will likely continue. Furthermore, interactions between climate and food resources can be complex and interact with each other. Eiders provide an illustrative example of this complexity, being caught in the crossfire between more benign ice conditions and lower salinity negatively affecting their prime food resource. The general conclusion is that climate is controlling not only the phenology of the species but also their reproductive output, thus affecting the entire population dynamics.

Prevalence and determinants of respiratory symptoms, asthma, chronic bronchitis and allergic sensitization in Helsinki : A comparison between Finland, Sweden and Estonia. The FinEsS studies - Helsinki I

Objectives: To assess the prevalence and risk factor profiles of respiratory symptoms, asthma and chronic bronchitis in Helsinki, and to compare these results with those for Sweden and Estonia. Other important aims were to evaluate the prevalence and determinants of type 1 sensitization in Helsinki. Materials and methods: This presentation is a part of a large epidemiological study in Finland, Estonia and Sweden (FinEsS). The first part of the study consisted of a postal questionnaire in 1995-1996 distributed to subjects in eight study centres. The study population in each centre was a population-based random sample designed to be representative of the general population. The original study sample in Helsinki consisted of 8000 subjects aged 20-69 years, 6062 (76%) of whom participated. Comparisons between countries were based on a narrower age group, 20-64 years, since 64 years was the upper age limit used in the original study in Estonia. Thus, altogether 58 661 subjects aged 20-64 years were invited to participate in Finland, Sweden and Estonia, and 44 483 (76%) did so. The second part of the study was a clinical study with a structured interview, lung function measurements and skin-prick tests with 15 common allergens. This thesis reports only the results of the prick tests in Helsinki. Of the 1200 subjects invited to participate in Helsinki, 643 (54%) consented. Skin-prick tests were performed on subjects ≤ 60 years of age; thus, a total of 498 tests were done. Results: In Helsinki, the prevalence of physician-diagnosed asthma was 6.6% and of physician-diagnosed chronic bronchitis 3.7% among subjects aged 20-69 years. Comparison of the results between Finland, Sweden and Estonia in subjects 20-64 years of age revealed the highest prevalence of physician-diagnosed asthma in Sweden, 7.8%, while the prevalence in Finland was 5.9% and in Estonia 2.0% (p<0.001). The prevalence of physician-diagnosed asthma among those aged 20-29 years was 7.9% in Stockholm, 6.3% in Helsinki and 2.8% in Tallinn. Asthma-related symptoms were most common in Estonia, and among those with typical asthma symptoms the diagnosis of asthma was least likely in Estonia. Physician-diagnosed chronic bronchitis was reported to be 10.7% in Estonia, 3.1% in Sweden and 2.9% in Finland among subjects aged 20-64 years (p<0.001). Among those aged 20-29 years, 7.6% in Tallinn reported physician-diagnosed chronic bronchitis, while the prevalence estimates were 1.4% in Stockholm and 1.3% in Helsinki. The prevalence of smoking was similar for women in all three countries, around 30%, but large differences in smoking habits were present among men; 60% of Estonian, 39% of Finnish and 28% of Swedish men smoked. Skin-prick tests in Helsinki revealed a high prevalence of sensitization, 46.9%. For subjects aged 26-39 years, the prevalence was highest, 56.8%, and 23.7% were sensitized to at least four allergens. The most common sensitizing allergen was the dog. Sensitization to multiple allergens was associated with a high prevalence of asthma and allergic rhinitis. Conclusions: Compared with earlier Finnish studies, a higher prevalence of asthma and a lower prevalence of chronic bronchitis were found in Helsinki. The prevalence of physician-diagnosed chronic bronchitis was low in Helsinki, with only one-fifth of subjects fulfilling the symptom criteria for chronic bronchitis reporting having a diagnosis of chronic bronchitis. The prevalences of asthma and chronic bronchitis were similar in Finland and Sweden, but in Estonia physician-diagnosed asthma was less common and physician-diagnosed chronic bronchitis more common, particularly among young subjects. Further analyses revealed that the diagnosis of asthma was favoured in Finland and Sweden, while the diagnosis of chronic bronchitis was more likely in Estonia for subjects with the same symptoms. Allergic sensitization was common in Helsinki. Our findings of multiple sensitization also speak in favour of evaluating the degree of sensitization when assessing allergies.

Probiotics in the prevention of clinical manifestations of common infectious diseases in children and in the elderly

Infectious diseases put an enormous burden on both children and the elderly in the forms of respiratory, gastrointestinal and oral infections. There is evidence suggesting that specific probiotics may be antagonistic to pathogens and may enhance the immune system, but the clinical evidence is still too sparce to make general conclusions on the disease-preventive effects of probiotics. This thesis, consisting of four independent, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trials, investigated whether Lactobacillus GG (LGG) or a specific probiotic combination containing LGG would reduce the risk of common infections or the prevalence of pathogens in healthy and infection-prone children and in independent and institutionalised elderly people. In healthy day-care children, the 7-month consumption of probiotic milk containing Lactobacillus GG appeared to postpone the first acute respiratory infection (ARI) by one week (p=0.03, adjusted p=0.16), and to reduce complicated infections (39% vs. 47%, p<0.05, adjusted p=0.13), as well as the need for antibiotic treatment (44% vs. 54%, p=0.03, adjusted p=0.08) and day-care absences (4.9 vs. 5.8 days, p=0.03, adjusted p=0.09) compared to the placebo milk. In infection-prone children, the 6-month consumption of a combination of four probiotic bacteria (LGG, L. rhamnosus LC705, Propionibacterium freudenreichii JS, Bifidobacterium breve 99) taken in capsules appeared to reduce recurrent ARIs (72% vs. 82%, p<0.05; adjusted p=0.06), and the effect was particularly noticeable in a subgroup of children with allergic diseases (12% vs. 33%, p=0.03), although no effect on the presence of nasopharyngeal rhinovirus or enterovirus was seen. The 5-month consumption of the same probiotic combination did not show any beneficial effects on the respiratory infections in frail, institutionalised elderly subjects. In healthy children receiving Lactobacillus GG, the reduction in complications resulted in a marginal reduction in the occurrence of acute otitis media (AOM) (31% vs. 39%, p=0.08; adjusted p=0.19), and the postponement of the first AOM episode by 12 days (p=0.04; adjusted p=0.09). However, in otitis-prone children, a probiotic combination did not reduce the occurrence of AOM or the total prevalence of common AOM pathogens (Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, Moraxella catarrhalis), except in the case of children with allergic diseases, in whom probiotics reduced recurrent AOM episodes (0% vs. 14%, p=0.03). In addition, interaction between probiotics and bacterial carriage was seen: probiot-ics reduced AOM in children who did not carry any bacterial pathogens (63% vs. 83%), but the effect was the reverse in children carrying bacteria in the nasopharynx (74% vs 62%) (p<0.05). Long-term probiotic treatment, either LGG given in milk to healthy children for 7 months or a combination of probiotics given in capsules to institutionalised elderly subjects for 5 months, did not reduce the occurrence of acute diarrhoea. However, when the probiotic combination (LGG, L. rhamnosus LC705, Propionibacterium JS) was given in cheese to independent elderly subjects for 4 months, the oral carriage of high Candida counts was reduced in the probiotic group vs. the placebo group (21% vs. 34%, p=0.01, adjusted p=0.004). The risk of hyposalivation was also reduced in the probiotic group (p=0.05). In conclusion, probiotics appear to slightly alleviate the severity of infections by postponing their appearance, by reducing complications and the need for antimicrobial treatments. In addition, they appear to prevent recurrent infections in certain subgroups of children, such as in infection-prone children with allergic diseases. Alleviating ARI by probiotics may lead to a marginal reduction in the occurrence of AOM in healthy children but not in infection-prone children with disturbed nasopharyngeal microbiota. On the basis of these results it could be supposed that Lactobacillus GG or a specific combination containing LGG are effective against viral but not against bacterial otitis, and the mechanism is probably mediated through the stimulation of the immune system. A specific probiotic combination does not reduce respiratory infections in frail elderly subjects. Acute diarrhoea, either in children or in the elderly, is not prevented by the continuous, long-term consumption of probiotics, but the consumption of a specific probiotic combination in a food matrix is beneficial to the oral health of the elderly, through the reduction of the carriage of Candida.

Questions to Artificial Nature: A Philosophical Study of Interdisciplinary Models and their Functions in Scientific Practice

This thesis presents an interdisciplinary analysis of how models and simulations function in the production of scientific knowledge. The work is informed by three scholarly traditions: studies on models and simulations in philosophy of science, so-called micro-sociological laboratory studies within science and technology studies, and cultural-historical activity theory. Methodologically, I adopt a naturalist epistemology and combine philosophical analysis with a qualitative, empirical case study of infectious-disease modelling. This study has a dual perspective throughout the analysis: it specifies the modelling practices and examines the models as objects of research. The research questions addressed in this study are: 1) How are models constructed and what functions do they have in the production of scientific knowledge? 2) What is interdisciplinarity in model construction? 3) How do models become a general research tool and why is this process problematic? The core argument is that the mediating models as investigative instruments (cf. Morgan and Morrison 1999) take questions as a starting point, and hence their construction is intentionally guided. This argument applies the interrogative model of inquiry (e.g., Sintonen 2005; Hintikka 1981), which conceives of all knowledge acquisition as process of seeking answers to questions. The first question addresses simulation models as Artificial Nature, which is manipulated in order to answer questions that initiated the model building. This account develops further the "epistemology of simulation" (cf. Winsberg 2003) by showing the interrelatedness of researchers and their objects in the process of modelling. The second question clarifies why interdisciplinary research collaboration is demanding and difficult to maintain. The nature of the impediments to disciplinary interaction are examined by introducing the idea of object-oriented interdisciplinarity, which provides an analytical framework to study the changes in the degree of interdisciplinarity, the tools and research practices developed to support the collaboration, and the mode of collaboration in relation to the historically mutable object of research. As my interest is in the models as interdisciplinary objects, the third research problem seeks to answer my question of how we might characterise these objects, what is typical for them, and what kind of changes happen in the process of modelling. Here I examine the tension between specified, question-oriented models and more general models, and suggest that the specified models form a group of their own. I call these Tailor-made models, in opposition to the process of building a simulation platform that aims at generalisability and utility for health-policy. This tension also underlines the challenge of applying research results (or methods and tools) to discuss and solve problems in decision-making processes.