Bayesian fisheries stock assessment: integrating and updating knowledge

In this thesis the use of the Bayesian approach to statistical inference in fisheries stock assessment is studied. The work was conducted in collaboration of the Finnish Game and Fisheries Research Institute by using the problem of monitoring and prediction of the juvenile salmon population in the River Tornionjoki as an example application. The River Tornionjoki is the largest salmon river flowing into the Baltic Sea. This thesis tackles the issues of model formulation and model checking as well as computational problems related to Bayesian modelling in the context of fisheries stock assessment. Each article of the thesis provides a novel method either for extracting information from data obtained via a particular type of sampling system or for integrating the information about the fish stock from multiple sources in terms of a population dynamics model. Mark-recapture and removal sampling schemes and a random catch sampling method are covered for the estimation of the population size. In addition, a method for estimating the stock composition of a salmon catch based on DNA samples is also presented. For most of the articles, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation has been used as a tool to approximate the posterior distribution. Problems arising from the sampling method are also briefly discussed and potential solutions for these problems are proposed. Special emphasis in the discussion is given to the philosophical foundation of the Bayesian approach in the context of fisheries stock assessment. It is argued that the role of subjective prior knowledge needed in practically all parts of a Bayesian model should be recognized and consequently fully utilised in the process of model formulation.

Food intake, growth and social interactions of signal crayfish, Pacifastacus leniusculus (Dana)

The knowledge about the optimal rearing conditions, such as water temperature and quality, photoperiod and density, with the understanding of animal nutritional requirements forms the basis of economically stable aquaculture for freshwater crayfish. However, the shift from a natural environment to effective culture conditions induces several changes, not only at the population level, but also at the individual level. The social contacts between conspecifics increase with increasing animal density. The competition for limited resources (e.g. food, shelter, mates) is more severe with the presence of agonistic behaviour and may lead to unequal distribution of these. The objectives of this study were to: 1) study the distribution of a common food resource between communally reared signal crayfish (Pacifastacus leniusculus) and to assign potential feeding hierarchy on the basis of individual food intake measurements, 2) explore the possibilities of size distribution manipulations to affect population dynamics and food intake to improve growth and survival in culture and 3) study the effect of food ration and spatial distribution on food intake and to explore the effect of temperature and food ration on growth and body composition of freshwater crayfish. The feeding ranks between animals were assigned with a new method for individual food intake measurement of communally reared crayfish. This technique has a high feasibility and a great potential to be applied in crayfish aquaculture studies. In this study, signal crayfish showed high size-related variability in food consumption both among individuals within a group (inter-individual) and within individual day-to-day variation (intra-individual). Increased competition for food led to an unequal distribution of this resource and this may be a reason for large growth differences between animals. The consumption was significantly higher when reared individually in comparison with communal housing. These results suggest that communally housed crayfish form a feeding hierarchy and that the animal size is the major factor controlling the position in this hierarchy. The optimisation of the social environment ( social conditions ) was evaluated in this study as a new approach to crayfish aquaculture. The results showed that the absence of conspecifics (individual rearing vs. communal housing) affects growth rate, food intake and the proportion of injured animals, whereas size variation between animals influences the number and duration of agonistic encounters. In addition, animal size had a strong influence on the fighting success of signal crayfish reared in a social milieu with a wide size variation of conspecifics. Larger individuals initiated and won most of the competitions, which suggests size-based social hierarchy of P. leniusculus. This is further supported by the fact that the length and weight gain of smaller animals increased after size grading, maybe because of a better access to the food resource due to diminished social pressure. However, the high dominance index was not based on size under conditions of limited size variation, e.g. those characteristic of restocked natural populations and aquaculture, indicating the important role of behaviour on social hierarchy.

Marking one-summer old whitefish with fluorescent pigment spraying method and results of whitefish stockings in the Gulf of Bothnia

Anadromous whitefish is one of the most important fish species in the Finnish coastal fisheries in the Gulf fo Bothnia. To compensate the lost reproduction due to river damming and to support the fisheries, several million one-summer old whitefish are released yearly into the Gulf of Bothnia. Since there are naturally reproducing whitefish in the Gulf as well, and the wild and stocked fish can not be separated in the catch, stocking impact can only be estimated by marking the stocked fish. Due to the small size and large number of released whitefish, the scattered fishery and large area where the whitefish migrate, most of the traditionally used fish marking methods were either unsuitable (e.g. Carlin-tags) or proved to be too expensive (e.g. coded wire tags). Fluorescent pigment spraying method offers a fast and cost-effective method to mass-mark young fish. However, the results are not always satisfactory due to low long-time retention of the marks in some species. The method has to be tested and proper marking conditions and methods determined for each species. This thesis is based on work that was accomplished while developing the fluorescent pigment spraying method for marking one-summer old whitefish fingerlings, and it draws together the results of mass-marking whitefish fingerlings that were released in the Gulf of Bothnia. Fluorescent pigment spraying method is suitable for one-summer old whitefish larger than 8 cm total length. The water temperature during the marking should not exceed 10o C. Suitable spraying pressure is 6 bars measured in the compressor outlet, and the distance of the spraying gun nozzle should be ca 20 cm from the fish. Under such conditions, the marking results in long-term retention of the mark with low or no mortality. The stress level of the fish (measured as muscle water content) rises during the marking procedure, but if the fish are allowed to recover after marking, the overall stress level remains within the limits observed in normal fish handling during the capture-loading-transport-stocking procedure. The marked whitefish fingerlings are released into the sea at larger size and later in the season than the wild whitefish. However, the stocked individuals migrate to the southern feeding grounds in a similar pattern to the wild ones. The catch produced by whitefish stocking in the Gulf of Bothnia varied between released fingerling groups, but was within the limits reported elsewhere in Finland. The releases in the southern Bothnian Bay resulted in a larger catch than those made in the northern Bothnian Bay. The size of the released fingerlings seemed to have some effect on survival of the fish during the first winter in the sea. However, when the different marking groups were compared, the mean fingerling size was not related to stocking success.

From the river to the open sea - a critical life phase of young Atlantic salmon migrating from the Simojoki river

Long-term monitoring data collected from wild smolts of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) in the Simojoki river, northern Finland, were used in studying the relationships between the smolt size and age, smolt and postsmolt migration, environmental conditions and postsmolt survival. The onset of the smolt run was significantly dependent on the rising water temperature and decreasing discharge of the river in the spring. The mean length of smolts migrating early in the season was commonly higher and the mean age always older than among smolts migrating later. Many of the smolts migrating early in the season and almost all smolts migrating later had started their new growth in spring in the river before their sea entry. Among postsmolts, the time required for emigration from the estuary was dependent on the sea surface temperature (SST) off the river, being significantly shorter in years with warm than cold sea temperatures. After leaving the estuary, the postsmolts migrated southwards along the eastern coast of the northern Gulf of Bothnia, the geographical distribution of the tag recoveries coinciding with the warm thermal zone in spring in the coastal area. After arriving in the southern Gulf of Bothnia in late summer the postsmolts mostly migrated near the western coast, reaching the Baltic Main Basin in late autumn. Until the early 1990s there was only a weak positive association between smolt length and postsmolt survival. However, following a subsequent decrease in the mean smolt size, a significant positive dependence was observed between smolt size and the reported recapture rate of tagged salmon. The differences in recapture rates between smolts tagged during the first and second half of the annual migration season were insignificant, indicating that the seasonal variation in smolt size and age seem to be too small to affect survival. Among the climatic factors examined, the summer SST in the Gulf of Bothnia was most clearly related to the survival of the wild postsmolts. Postsmolt survival appeared to be highest in years when the SST in June in the Bothnian Bay varied between 9 and 12 ºC. In addition, the survival of wild postsmolts showed a significant positive dependence on the SST in July in the Bothnian Sea, but not on the abundance of the prey fish (0+ herring, Clupea harengus and sprat, Sprattus sprattus) in the Bothnian Sea and in the Baltic Main Basin. The results suggest, that if the incidence of extreme weather conditions were to increase due to climatic changes, it would probably reduce the postsmolt survival of wild salmon populations. For improving the performance of hatchery-reared smolts, it could be useful to examine opportunities to produce smolts that are in their smolt traits and abilities more similar to the wild smolts described in this thesis.

Coastal environmental gradients – Key to reproduction habitat mapping of freshwater fish in the Baltic Sea

Habitat requirements of fish are most strict during the early life stages, and the quality and quantity of reproduction habitats lays the basis for fish production. A considerable number of fish species in the northern Baltic Sea reproduce in the shallow coastal areas, which are also the most heavily exploited parts of the brackish marine area. However, the coastal fish reproduction habitats in the northern Baltic Sea are poorly known. The studies presented in this thesis focused on the influence of environmental conditions on the distribution of coastal reproduction habitats of freshwater fish. They were conducted in vegetated littoral zone along an exposure and salinity gradient extending from the innermost bays to the outer archipelago on the south-western and southern coasts of Finland, in the northern Baltic Sea. Special emphasis was placed on reed-covered Phragmites australis shores, which form a dominant vegetation type in several coastal archipelago areas. The main aims of this research were to (1) develop and test new survey and mapping methods, (2) investigate the environmental requirements that govern the reproduction of freshwater fish in the coastal area and (3) survey, map and model the distribution of the reproduction habitats of pike (Esox lucius) and roach (Rutilus rutilus). The white plate and scoop method with a standardized sampling time and effort was demonstrated to be a functional method for sampling the early life stages of fish in dense vegetation and shallow water. Reed-covered shores were shown to form especially important reproduction habitats for several freshwater fish species, such as pike, roach, other cyprinids and burbot, in the northern Baltic Sea. The reproduction habitats of pike were limited to sheltered reed- and moss-covered shores of the inner and middle archipelago, where suitable zooplankton prey were available and the influence of the open sea was low. The reproduction habitats of roach were even more limited and roach reproduction was successful only in the very sheltered reed-covered shores of the innermost bay areas, where salinity remained low (< 4‰) during the spawning season due to freshwater inflow. After identifying the critical factors restricting the reproduction of pike and roach, the spatial distribution of their reproduction habitats was successfully mapped and modelled along the environmental gradients using only a few environmental predictor variables. Reproduction habitat maps are a valuable tool promoting the sustainable use and management of exploited coastal areas and helping to maintain the sustainability of fish populations. However, the large environmental gradients and the extensiveness of the archipelago zone in the northern Baltic Sea demand an especially high spatial resolution of the coastal predictor variables. Therefore, the current lack of accurate large-scale, high-resolution spatial data gathered at exactly the right time is a considerable limitation for predictive modelling of shallow coastal waters.

Dynamics of Finnish starlings in 1951-2005 : from monitoring to population modelling

Farmland bird species have been declining in Europe. Many declines have coincided with general intensification of farming practices. In Finland, replacement of mixed farming, including rotational pastures, with specialized cultivation has been one of the most drastic changes from the 1960s to the 1990s. This kind of habitat deterioration limits the persistence of populations, as has been previously indicated from local populations. Integrated population monitoring, which gathers species-specific information of population size and demography, can be used to assess the response of a population to environment changes also at a large spatial scale. I targeted my analysis at the Finnish starling (Sturnus vulgaris). Starlings are common breeders in farmland habitats, but severe declines of local populations have been reported from Finland in the 1970s and 1980s and later from other parts of Europe. Habitat deterioration (replacement of pasture and grassland habitats with specialized cultivation areas) limits reproductive success of the species. I analysed regional population data in order to exemplify the importance of agricultural change to bird population dynamics. I used nestling ringing and nest-card data from 1951 to 2005 in order to quantify population trends and per capita reproductive success within several geographical regions (south/north and west/east aspects). I used matrix modelling, acknowledging age-specific survival and fecundity parameters and density-dependence, to model population dynamics. Finnish starlings declined by 80% from the end of the 1960s up to the end of the 1980s. The observed patterns and the model indicated that the population decline was due to the decline of the carrying capacity of farmland habitats. The decline was most severe in north Finland where populations largely become extinct. However, habitat deterioration was most severe in the southern breeding areas. The deteriorations in habitat quality decreased reproduction, which finally caused the decline. I suggest that poorly-productive northern populations have been partly maintained by immigration from the highly-productive southern populations. As the southern populations declined, ceasing emigration caused the population extinction in north. This phenomenon was explained with source sink population dynamics, which I structured and verified on the basis of a spatially explicit simulation model. I found that southern Finnish starling population exhibits ten-year cyclic regularity, a phenomenon that can be explained with delayed density-dependence in reproduction.

Effects of large-scale human land use on Capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus L.) populations in Finland

The Capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus L.) is often used as a focal species for landscape ecological studies: the minimum size for its lekking area is 300 ha, and the annual home range for an individual may cover 30 80 km2. In Finland, Capercaillie populations have decreased by approximately 40 85%, with the declines likely to have started in the 1940s. Although the declines have partly stabilized from the 1990s onwards, it is obvious that the negative population trend was at least partly caused by changes in human land use. The aim of this thesis was to study the connections between human land use and Capercaillie populations in Finland, using several spatial and temporal scales. First, the effect of forest age structure on Capercaillie population trends was studied in 18 forestry board districts in Finland, during 1965 1988. Second, the abundances of Capercaillie and Moose (Alces alces L.) were compared in terms of several land-use variables on a scale of 50 × 50 km grids and in five regions in Finland. Third, the effects of forest cover and fine-grain forest fragmentation on Capercaillie lekking area persistence were studied in three study locations in Finland, on 1000 and 3000 m spatial scales surrounding the leks. The analyses considering lekking areas were performed with two definitions for forest: > 60 and > 152 m3ha 1 of timber volume. The results show that patterns and processes at large spatial scales strongly influence Capercaillie in Finland. In particular, in southwestern and eastern Finland, high forest cover and low human impact were found to be beneficial for this species. Forest cover (> 60 m3ha 1 of timber) surrounding the lekking sites positively affected lekking area persistence only at the larger landscape scale (3000 m radius). The effects of older forest classes were hard to assess due to scarcity of older forests in several study areas. Young and middle-aged forest classes were common in the vicinity of areas with high Capercaillie abundances especially in northern Finland. The increase in the amount of younger forest classes did not provide a good explanation for Capercaillie population decline in 1965 1988. In addition, there was no significant connection between mature forests (> 152 m3ha 1 of timber) and lekking area persistence in Finland. It seems that in present-day Finnish landscapes, area covered with old forest is either too scarce to efficiently explain the abundance of Capercaillie and the persistence of the lekking areas, or the effect of forest age is only important when considering smaller spatial scales than the ones studied in this thesis. In conclusion, larger spatial scales should be considered for assessing the future Capercaillie management. According to the proposed multi-level planning, the first priority should be to secure the large, regional-scale forest cover, and the second priority should be to maintain fine-grained, heterogeneous structure within the separate forest patches. A management unit covering hundreds of hectares, or even tens or hundreds of square kilometers, should be covered, which requires regional-level land-use planning and co-operation between forest owners.

How Can Sustainable Agricultural Systems Promote Food Security in a Changing Climate?

A theoretical framework of the link between climate change, rural development, sustainable agriculture, poverty, and food security is presented. Some options to respond to climate change are described. Current knowledge and potential effects on agricultural productivity is discussed. Necessary conditions for successful adaptation includes secured property rights to land, institutions that make market access possible and credit possibilities. The options of mitigation and enhanced adaptive capacity and the requirements for their implementation are discussed.