Kohti hyvää suometsien hoitoa : harvennusten ja kunnostusojitusten vaikutus ojitusaluemänniköiden puuntuotokseen ja metsänkasvatuksen taloustulokseen

This thesis examines the impacts of silvicultural activities on productivity and financial returns of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stands on drained peatlands in Finland. The effects of ditch network maintenance operations (DNM) and thinnings, with different timings and intensities, were studied. Based on stand development simulations, the best regimes for different types of stands according to site type, climatic area, and stand silvicultural status were defined from the viewpoint of both wood production and financial profitability. Certain aspects affecting the management outcomes, such as the timing of the first thinning, were examined using data from thinning experiments. Long-term predictions of the impacts of different management regimes were carried out by simulating the development of well-representative model-stands which were composed from appropriate inventory data sets. The MOTTI stand simulator used to perform the simulations enables the predictions by utilizing specific models for drained peatland stands. In addition to natural stand dynamics, these models describe the effects of silvicultural treatments on the development of a given stand. The mean annual increment of merchantable wood (MAImerch) was used as the measure of wood productivity, and the financial feasibility of the regimes was compared using net present value (NPV) analysis. Silvicultural treatments, when applied to appropriately match stand condition, increased both the productivity and financial returns of stand management. Applying DNM resulted in a small increase in MAImerch. When thinning was introduced along with DNM, their combined effect on wood productivity was considerable. According to current operational practices, DNM is generally combined with thinning. In some cases, e.g., in sites of low productivity, the need for DNM may become apparent prior to the thinning stage. As for profitability, thinnings proved to be crucial. The regimes with heavy and late thinnings were generally more profitable than those with normal thinnings. Further, early thinning (relative to stand volume) lacked appeal when seeking a financially profitable removal from the first thinning. In young stands with an initially poor silvicultural condition, however, applying even a low-yielding first thinning considerably increased the NPV when compared to a regime with no thinning at all. Generally, the regimes resulting in the best profitability included heavier thinnings and fewer DNM and thinning treatments than did the regimes resulting in the best yield results. This study demonstrates considerable potential for profitable wood production-oriented management in pine stands on drained peatlands despite their challenging circumstances and long rotations. The results can be used for defining new and more site-specific silvicultural guidelines for various types of drained, pine-dominated peatland stands within the entire range of boreal conditions.

Uncertainty in forest simulators and forest planning systems

The forest simulator is a computerized model for predicting forest growth and future development as well as effects of forest harvests and treatments. The forest planning system is a decision support tool, usually including a forest simulator and an optimisation model, for finding the optimal forest management actions. The information produced by forest simulators and forest planning systems is used for various analytical purposes and in support of decision making. However, the quality and reliability of this information can often be questioned. Natural variation in forest growth and estimation errors in forest inventory, among other things, cause uncertainty in predictions of forest growth and development. This uncertainty stemming from different sources has various undesirable effects. In many cases outcomes of decisions based on uncertain information are something else than desired. The objective of this thesis was to study various sources of uncertainty and their effects in forest simulators and forest planning systems. The study focused on three notable sources of uncertainty: errors in forest growth predictions, errors in forest inventory data, and stochastic fluctuation of timber assortment prices. Effects of uncertainty were studied using two types of forest growth models, individual tree-level models and stand-level models, and with various error simulation methods. New method for simulating more realistic forest inventory errors was introduced and tested. Also, three notable sources of uncertainty were combined and their joint effects on stand-level net present value estimates were simulated. According to the results, the various sources of uncertainty can have distinct effects in different forest growth simulators. The new forest inventory error simulation method proved to produce more realistic errors. The analysis on the joint effects of various sources of uncertainty provided interesting knowledge about uncertainty in forest simulators.

Merestä Metsäksi - yhteistoimintaverkostohankkeen sosiaaliset ja taloudelliset vaikutukset

The object of this study was to find out which factors made landowners interested in From Sea to Forest co-operation network. Co-operation networks protect biodiversity across boundaries and among groups of landowners with different kind of protection contracts. The social effects of From Sea to Forest - project are studied by analyzing the experience of co-operation and trust. Furthermore the possibility to influence decision making when choosing the pilot areas and doing the contracts was surveyed. Economical effects are estimated for those landowners, who signed a protection contract for ten years. The study is part of The Finnish Forest Research Institute s Ecological considerations in landscape-level collaborative planning of private forestry project. The material of the study comprises 13 interviews done in January 2006; seven interviewed were landowners and six forest professionals. The interviews were transcripted and analyzed with Atlas.ti programme. The economical effects were estimated with MOTTI forest simulation programme. From Sea to Forest project interested the landowners for similar reasons: the voluntariness of participation, compensation, fixed-term contracts and the possibility to protect forests so that the proprietary right remains. It was possible to form four different groups of interviewed landowners according to trust: networkers , opportunists , carefuls and selfemployed . Only in the group of opportunists the project created so much trust that a significant increase of interest to participate in the project was noticed. In all the other groups the project didn t create remarkable trust, so trust didn t have an effect on landowners decisions to participate. Other factors, like compensation and voluntariness were decisive for their interest to participate. From Sea to Forest project wasn t a network based on landowners co-operation, the communication was directly with the project worker. The effects on landowners income by signing a ten year ´Natural value trading´ -contract was analyzed by comparing the protection income with predicted forestry income in case that the protection contract wouldn t have been agreed on. For two landowners there was no suggested forestry work within ten years, so their protection income might be an additional income, if they decided to log their forests later. For three landowners delayed thinning of the sapling stand would cause income losses in the future, if they decided to move to active forestry after ten years of protection. For eight landowners the effect of protection is positive to income if they moved to active forestry after the ten years protection period. This occurred, because the tree stand is now mature for final felling on behalf of its age, but ten more years of growth increase the net present value. Longer term protection might diminish the net present value. The protection was profitable because hectare specific forestry income grew compared to forestry cutting plan income.

Energiapuuharvennus osana metsänkasvatusta ja ilmastonmuutoksen hillitsemistä

The aim of this study was to compare the differences between forest management incorporating energy wood thinning and forest management based on silvicultural recommendations (baseline). Energy wood thinning was substituted for young stand thinning and the first commercial thinning of industrial wood. The study was based on the forest stand data from Southern Finland, which were simulated by the MOTTI-simulator. The main interest was to find out the climatic benefits resulting from carbon sequestration and energy substitution. The value of energy wood was set to substitute it for coal as an alternative energy fuel (emission trade). Other political instruments (Kemera subsidies) were also analysed. The largest carbon dioxide emission reductions were achieved as a combination of carbon sequestration and energy substitution (on average, a 26-90 % increase in discounted present value in the beginning of rotation) compared to the baseline. Energy substitution increased emission reductions more effectively than carbon sequestration, when maintaining dense young stands. According to the study, energy wood thinning as a part of forest management was more profitable than the baseline when the value of carbon dioxide averaged more than 15 €/CO2 and other political subsidies were unchanged. Alternatively, the price of energy wood should on average exceed 21 €/m3 on the roadside in order to be profitable in the absence of political instruments. The most cost-efficient employment of energy wood thinning occured when the dominant height was 12 meters, when energy substitution was taken into account. According to alternative forest management, thinning of sapling stands could be done earlier or less intensely than thinning based on silvicultural recommendations and the present criteria of subsidies. Consequently, the first commercial thinning could be profitable to carry out either as harvesting of industrial wood or energy wood, or as integrated harvesting depending on the costs of the harvesting methods available and the price level of small-size industrial wood compared to energy wood.

Optimal Risk Adoption: A Real Options Approach

This study develops a real options approach for analyzing the optimal risk adoption policy in an environment where the adoption means a switch from one stochastic flow representation into another. We establish that increased volatility needs not decelerate investment, as predicted by the standard literature on real options, once the underlying volatility of the state is made endogenous. We prove that for a decision maker with a convex (concave) objective function, increased post-adoption volatility increases (decreases) the expected cumulative present value of the post-adoption profit flow, which consequently decreases (increases) the option value of waiting and, therefore, accelerates (decelerates) current investment.

Optimal management of conflicting species: Grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) and Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) in the Baltic Sea

The objective of this thesis is to examine the economic effects in the conflict between grey seal population and the salmon fishery in the Baltic Sea. We will formulate a bioeconomic model which provides new insights on the optimal management of Atlantic salmon with respect to the effects brought about by the grey seal population. As the catch losses caused by seals have an effect on salmon fishery in Baltic, we will study how seal population affects the present value of the salmon fishery. The study considers the Finnish coastal trap net fishery. The bioeconomic model considers a scenario of sole salmon fishery and a scenario of salmon fishery affected by the grey seal population. On the basis of these scenarios, a seal compensation scheme is introduced. We can observe a significant economic seal-induced effect on the salmon fishery. The results suggest that the present seal compensation scheme emploid by the Finnish government is suboptimal. This thesis is part of the TARMO –project, in which the conflict between grey seal population and salmon fishery is studied using the methods of environmental economics.

Optimal multispecies fishery management in the Baltic Sea: A bioeconomic analysis

The aim of the thesis is to assess the fishery of Baltic cod, herring and sprat by simulation over 50 years time period. We form a bioeconomic multispecies model for the species. We include species interactions into the model because especially cod and sprat stocks have significant effects on each other. We model the development of population dynamics, catches and profits of the fishery with current fishing mortalities, as well as with the optimal profit maximizing fishing mortalities. Thus, we see how the fishery would develop with current mortalities, and how the fishery should be developed in order to yield maximal profits. Especially cod stock has been quite low recently and by optimizing the fishing mortality it could get recovered. In addition, we assess what would happen to the fisheries of the species if more favourable environmental conditions for cod recruitment dominate in the Baltic Sea. The results may yield new information for the fisheries management. According to the results the fishery of Baltic cod, herring and sprat are not at the most profitable level. The fishing mortalities of each species should be lower in order to maximize the profits. By fishing mortality optimizing the net present value would be almost three times higher in the simulation period. The lower fishing mortality of cod would result in a cod stock recovery. If the environmental conditions in the Baltic Sea improved, cod stock would recover even without a decrease in the fishing mortality. Then the increased cod stock would restrict herring and sprat stock remarkably, and harvesting of these species would not be as profitable anymore.

Other Side of This Life : Death, Value, and Social Being in Thomas Pynchon's Fiction

This dissertation analyzes the interrelationship between death, the conditions of (wo)man s social being, and the notion of value as it emerges in the fiction of the American novelist Thomas Pynchon (1937 ). Pynchon s present work includes six novels V. (1963), The Crying of Lot 49 (1966), Gravity s Rainbow (1973), Vineland (1990), Mason & Dixon (1997), Against the Day (2006) and several short stories. Death constitues a central thematic in Pynchon s work, and it emerges through recurrent questions of mortality, suicide, mass destruction, sacrifice, afterlife, entropy, the relationship between the animate and the inanimate, and the limits of representation. In Pynchon, death is never a mere biological given (or event); it is always determined within a certain historical, cultural, and ideological context. Throughout his work, Pynchon questions the strict ontological separation of life and death by showing the relationship between this separation and social power. Conceptual divisions also reflect the relationship between society and its others, and death becomes that through which lines of social demarcation are articulated. Determined as a conceptual and social "other side", death in Pynchon forms a challenge to modern culture, and makes an unexpected return: the dead return to haunt the living, the inanimate and the animate fuse, and technoscientific attempts at overcoming and controlling death result in its re-emergence in mass destruction and ecological damage. The questioning of the ontological line also affects the structuration of Pynchon's prose, where the recurrent narrated and narrative desire to reach the limits of representation is openly associated with death. Textualized, death appears in Pynchon's writing as a sudden rupture within the textual functioning, when the "other side", that is, the bare materiality of the signifier is foregrounded. In this study, Pynchon s cultural criticism and his poetics come together, and I analyze the subversive role of death in his fiction through Jean Baudrillard s genealogy of the modern notion of death from L échange symbolique et la mort (1976). Baudrillard sees an intrinsic bond between the social repression of death in modernity and the emergence of modern political economy, and in his analysis economy and language appear as parallel systems for generating value (exchange value/ sign-value). For Baudrillard, the modern notion of death as negativity in relation to the positivity of life, and the fact that death cannot be given a proper meaning, betray an antagonistic relation between death and the notion of value. As a mode of negativity (that is, non-value), death becomes a moment of rupture in relation to value-based thinking in short, rationalism. Through this rupture emerges a form of thinking Baudrillard labels the symbolic, characterized by ambivalence and the subversion of conceptual opposites.

Outcome of singleton pregnancy after assisted reproductive treatment

Singleton pregnancies achieved by means of assisted reproductive treatment (ART) are associated with increased obstetric and neonatal risks in comparison with spontaneously conceived singleton pregnancies. The impact of infertility- and treatment-related factors on these risks is not properly understood. In addition, the psychological effects of infertility and its treatment on the experience of pregnancy have scarcely been studied. Thus, the aim of the present study was to evaluate the importance of infertility- and treatment-related factors on prediction of pregnancy outcome, obstetric and neonatal risks, fear-of-childbirth and pregnancy-related anxiety. The subjects consisted of infertile women who achieved a singleton pregnancy by means of in vitro fertilisation (IVF) or intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI). The control groups comprised spontaneously conceiving women with singleton gestations. Early pregnancy outcome was assessed by means of assay of serum human chorionic gonadoptrophin (hCG) in single samples. Other outcome data were collected from patient records, national Health Registers and via prospective questionnaire surveys. Viable pregnancies were associated with significantly higher serum hCG levels 12 days after embryo transfer than non-viable pregnancies. Among singleton pregnancies, aetiological subgroup, treatment type or the number of transferred embryos did not impair the predictive value of single hCG assessment. According to the register-based data, age-, parity- and socioeconomic status- adjusted risks of gestational hypertension, preterm contractions and placenta praevia were more frequent in the ART pregnancies than in the control pregnancies. Significantly higher rates of induction of delivery and Caesarean section occurred in the ART group than in the control group. The risks of preterm birth and low birth weight (LBW) were increased after ART pregnancy. Duration or aetiology of infertility, treatment type (fresh or frozen IVF or ICSI) or rank of treatment did not contribute to the risks of preterm birth or LBW. In addition, the risks of preterm birth and LBW remained elevated in spite of of the number of transferred embryos. Although mean duration of pregnancy was shorter and mean birth weight lower in the ART pregnancies than in the control pregnancies, these differences were hardly of clinical significance. Fear-of-childbirth and pregnancy-related anxiety were equally common to women conceiving by means of ART, or spontaneously. Partnership of five to ten years appeared to be protective as regards severe fear-of-childbirth, whereas long preceding infertility (≥ seven years) had the opposite effect. In conclusion, an early hCG assessment maintained its good predictive value regardless of infertility- or patient-related factors. Further, we did not recognise any infertility- or patient-related factors that would expose infertile women to increased obstetric or neonatal risks. However, a long period of infertility was associated with severe fear-of-childbirth.

Modeling and Forecasting Implied Volatility: Implications for Trading, Pricing, and Risk Management

Modeling and forecasting of implied volatility (IV) is important to both practitioners and academics, especially in trading, pricing, hedging, and risk management activities, all of which require an accurate volatility. However, it has become challenging since the 1987 stock market crash, as implied volatilities (IVs) recovered from stock index options present two patterns: volatility smirk(skew) and volatility term-structure, if the two are examined at the same time, presents a rich implied volatility surface (IVS). This implies that the assumptions behind the Black-Scholes (1973) model do not hold empirically, as asset prices are mostly influenced by many underlying risk factors. This thesis, consists of four essays, is modeling and forecasting implied volatility in the presence of options markets’ empirical regularities. The first essay is modeling the dynamics IVS, it extends the Dumas, Fleming and Whaley (DFW) (1998) framework; for instance, using moneyness in the implied forward price and OTM put-call options on the FTSE100 index, a nonlinear optimization is used to estimate different models and thereby produce rich, smooth IVSs. Here, the constant-volatility model fails to explain the variations in the rich IVS. Next, it is found that three factors can explain about 69-88% of the variance in the IVS. Of this, on average, 56% is explained by the level factor, 15% by the term-structure factor, and the additional 7% by the jump-fear factor. The second essay proposes a quantile regression model for modeling contemporaneous asymmetric return-volatility relationship, which is the generalization of Hibbert et al. (2008) model. The results show strong negative asymmetric return-volatility relationship at various quantiles of IV distributions, it is monotonically increasing when moving from the median quantile to the uppermost quantile (i.e., 95%); therefore, OLS underestimates this relationship at upper quantiles. Additionally, the asymmetric relationship is more pronounced with the smirk (skew) adjusted volatility index measure in comparison to the old volatility index measure. Nonetheless, the volatility indices are ranked in terms of asymmetric volatility as follows: VIX, VSTOXX, VDAX, and VXN. The third essay examines the information content of the new-VDAX volatility index to forecast daily Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimates and compares its VaR forecasts with the forecasts of the Filtered Historical Simulation and RiskMetrics. All daily VaR models are then backtested from 1992-2009 using unconditional, independence, conditional coverage, and quadratic-score tests. It is found that the VDAX subsumes almost all information required for the volatility of daily VaR forecasts for a portfolio of the DAX30 index; implied-VaR models outperform all other VaR models. The fourth essay models the risk factors driving the swaption IVs. It is found that three factors can explain 94-97% of the variation in each of the EUR, USD, and GBP swaption IVs. There are significant linkages across factors, and bi-directional causality is at work between the factors implied by EUR and USD swaption IVs. Furthermore, the factors implied by EUR and USD IVs respond to each others’ shocks; however, surprisingly, GBP does not affect them. Second, the string market model calibration results show it can efficiently reproduce (or forecast) the volatility surface for each of the swaptions markets.

Time and Location as Customer Perceived Value Drivers

Since the emergence of service marketing, the focus of service research has evolved. Currently the focus of research is shifting towards value co-created by the customer. Consequently, value creation is increasingly less fixed to a specific time or location controlled by the service provider. However, present service management models, although acknowledging customer participation and accessibility, have not considered the role of the empowered customer who may perform the service at various locations and time frames. The present study expands this scope and provides a framework for exploring customer perceived value from a temporal and spatial perspective. The framework is used to understand and analyse customer perceived value and to explore customer value profiles. It is proposed that customer perceived value can be conceptualised as a function of technical, functional, temporal and spatial value dimensions. These dimensions are suggested to have value-increasing and value-decreasing facets. This conceptualisation is empirically explored in an online banking context and it is shown that time and location are more important value dimensions relative to the technical and functional dimensions. The findings demonstrate that time and location are important not only in terms of having the possibility to choose when and where the service is performed. Customers also value an efficient and optimised use of time and a private and customised service location. The study demonstrates that time and location are not external elements that form the service context, but service value dimensions, in addition to the technical and functional dimensions. This thesis contributes to existing service management research through its framework for understanding temporal and spatial dimensions of perceived value. Practical implications of the study are that time and location need to be considered as service design elements in order to differentiate the service from other services and create additional value for customers. Also, because of increased customer control and the importance of time and location, it is increasingly relevant for service providers to provide a facilitating arena for customers to create value, rather than trying to control the value creation process. Kristina Heinonen is associated with CERS, the Center for Relationship Marketing and Service Management at the Swedish School of Economics and Business Administration

Shareholder/Stakeholder Value Management, Company Growth and

There has been considerable discussion in the literature about the relative merits of shareholder value management and stakeholder value management, but relatively little empirical research has been reported concerning the relationship between these types of management and financial performance. The present study puts forward a hypothesis that true shareholder value management also encompasses stakeholder value management. This combination of shareholder/stakeholder value management is hypothesised to be associated with superior financial performance and sales growth. Using a sample of chief financial officers' ratings of the contemporary management accounting techniques economic value added and the balanced scorecard to represent the two management types, the study found evidence in support of the hypothesis.

Re-Conceptualizing Value-Creation From Industrial Business Logic to Service Business Logic

There is an urgent interest in marketing to move away from neo-classical value definitions suggesting that value creation is a process of exchanging goods for money. In the present paper, value creation is conceptualized as an integration of two distinct, yet closely coupled processes. First, actors co-create what this paper calls an underlying basis of value. This is done by interactively re-configuring resources. By relating and combining resources, activity sets, and risks across actor boundaries in novel ways actors create joint productivity gains – a concept very similar to density (Normann, 2001). Second, actors engage in a process of signification and evaluation. Signification implies co-constructing the meaning and worth of joint productivity gains co-created through interactive resource re-configuration, as well as sharing those gains through a pricing mechanism as value to involved actors. The conceptual framework highlights an all-important dynamics associated with ´value creation´ and ´value´ - a dynamics the paper claims has eluded past marketing research. The paper argues that the framework presented here is appropriate for the interactive service perspective, where value and value creation are not objectively given, but depend on the power of involved actors´ socially constructed frames to mobilize resources across actor boundaries in ways that ´enhance system well-being´ (Vargo et al., 2008). The paper contributes to research on Service Logic, Service-Dominant Logic, and Service Science.

Towards Service Logic: The Unique Contribution of Value Co-Creation

The underpinning logic of value co-creation in service logic is analysed. It is observed that three of the ten foundational premises of the so-called service-dominant logic are problematic and do not support an understanding of value-co-creation and creation that is meaningful for theoretical development and decision making in business and marketing practice. Without a thorough understanding of the interaction concept, the locus and nature of value co-creation cannot be identified. Based on the analysis in the present article it is observed that a unique contribution of a service perspective on business (service logic) is not that customers always are co-creators of value, but that under certain circumstances the service provider gets opportunities to co-create value together with its customers. Finally, the three problematic premises are reformulated accordingly.

Value of Image in Service

Purpose This paper takes a customer view on corporate image and value, and discusses the value of image in service. We propose a model depicting how the customer’s corporate brand image affects the customer’s value-in-use. Methodology/approach The paper represents conceptual development on customers’ value and image construction processes. By integrating ideas and elements from the current service and branding literature a model is proposed that extends current views on how value-in-use emerges. Findings From a current service perspective it is the customer who makes value assessments when experiencing service. Similarly, if branding is a concept used to denote the service provider’s intentions and attempts to create a corporate brand, image construction is the corresponding process where the customer constructs the corporate image. This image construction process is always present both in service interactions and in communication and has an effect on the customer’s value-in-use. We argue that two interrelated concepts are needed to capture corporate image construction and dynamics and value-in-use – the image-in-use and image heritage. Research implications The model integrates two different streams of research pointing to the need to consider traditional marketing communication and service interactions as inherently related to each other from the customer’s point of view. Additionally the model gives a platform for understanding how value-in-use emerges over time. New methodological approaches and techniques to capture image-in-use and image heritage and their interplay with value-in-use are needed. Practical implications The company may not be able to control the emergence of value-in-use but may influence it, not only in interactions with the customer but also with pure communication. Branding activities should therefore be considered related to service operations and service development. Additionally, practitioners would need to apply qualitative methods to understand the customer’s view on image and value-in-use. Originality/value The paper presents a novel approach for understanding and studying that the customer’s image of a company influences emergence of value-in-use. The model implies that the customer’s corporate image has a crucial role for experienced value-in-use.