Toxicant distributions and impact models in environmental risk analysis of waste sites

Myrkyllisten aineiden jakaumat ja vaikutusmallit jätealueiden ympäristöriskien analyysissä.

Ecological consequences of genetic modifications - an invasion analysis approach

Biological invasions are considered as one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, as they may lead to disruption and homogenization of natural communities, and in the worst case, to native species extinctions. The introduction of gene modified organisms (GMOs) to agricultural, fisheries and forestry practices brings them into contact with natural populations. GMOs may appear as new invasive species if they are able to (1) invade into natural habitats or (2) hybridize with their wild relatives. The benefits of GMOs, such as increased yield or decreased use of insecticides or herbicides in cultivation, may thus be reduced due the potential risks they may cause. A careful ecological risk analysis therefore has to precede any responsible GMO introduction. In this thesis I study ecological invasion in relation to GMOs, and what kind of consequences invasion may have in natural populations. A set of theoretical models that combine life-history evolution, population dynamics, and population genetics were developed for the hazard identification part of ecological risks assessment of GMOs. In addition, the potential benefits of GMOs in management of an invasive pest were analyzed. In the first study I showed that a population that is fluctuating due to scramble-type density dependence (due to, e.g., nutrient competition in plants) may be invaded by a population that is relatively more limited by a resource (e.g., light in plants) that is a cause of contest-type density dependence. This result emphasises the higher risk of invasion in unstable environments. The next two studies focused on escape of a growth hormone (GH) transgenic fish into a natural population. The results showed that previous models may have given too pessimistic a view of the so called Trojan gene -effect, where the invading genotype is harmful for the population as a whole. The previously suggested population extinctions did not occur in my studies, since the changes in mating preferences caused by the GH-fish were be ameliorated by decreased level of competition. The GH-invaders may also have to exceed a threshold density before invasion can be successful. I also showed that the prevalence of mature parr (aka. sneaker) strategy among GH-fish may have clear effect on invasion outcome. The fourth study assessed the risks and developed methods against the invasion of the Colorado Potato Beetle (CPB, Leptinotarsa decemlineata). I showed that the eradication of CPB is most important for the prevention of their establishment, but the cultivation of transgenic Bt-potato could also be effective. In general, my results emphasise that invasion of transgenic species or genotypes to be possible under certain realistic conditions and resulting in competitive exclusion, population decline through outbreeding depression and genotypic displacement of native species. Ecological risk assessment should regard the decline and displacement of the wild genotype by an introduced one as a consequence that is as serious as the population extinction. It will also be crucial to take into account different kinds of behavioural differences among species when assessing the possible hazards that GMOs may cause if escaped. The benefits found of GMO crops effectiveness in pest management may also be too optimistic since CPB may evolve resistance to Bt-toxin. The models in this thesis could be further applied in case specific risk assessment of GMOs by supplementing them with detailed data of the species biology, the effect of the transgene introduced to the species, and also the characteristics of the populations or the environments in the risk of being invaded.

Political Risk in Credit Evaluation: Empirical Studies and Survey Results

Financing trade between economic agents located in different countries is affected by many types of risks, resulting from incomplete information about the debtor, the problems of enforcing international contracts, or the prevalence of political and financial crises. Trade is important for economic development and the availability of trade finance is essential, especially for developing countries. Relatively few studies treat the topic of political risk, particularly in the context of international lending. This thesis explores new ground to identify links between political risk and international debt defaults. The core hypothesis of the study is that the default probability of debt increases with increasing political risk in the country of the borrower. The thesis consists of three essays that support the hypothesis from different angles of the credit evaluation process. The first essay takes the point of view of an international lender assessing the credit risk of a public borrower. The second investigates creditworthiness assessment of companies. The obtained results are substantiated in the third essay that deals with an extensive political risk survey among finance professionals in developing countries. The financial instruments of core interest are export credit guaranteed debt initiated between the Export Credit Agency of Finland and buyers in 145 countries between 1975 and 2006. Default events of the foreign credit counterparts are conditioned on country-specific macroeconomic variables, corporate-specific accounting information as well as political risk indicators from various international sources. Essay 1 examines debt issued to government controlled institutions and conditions public default events on traditional macroeconomic fundamentals, in addition to selected political and institutional risk factors. Confirming previous research, the study finds country indebtedness and the GDP growth rate to be significant indicators of public default. Further, it is shown that public defaults respond to various political risk factors. However, the impact of the risk varies between countries at different stages of economic development. Essay 2 proceeds by investigating political risk factors as conveivable drivers of corporate default and uses traditional accounting variables together with new political risk indicators in the credit evaluation of private debtors. The study finds links between corporate default and leverage, as well as between corporate default and the general investment climate and measeures of conflict in the debtor country. Essay 3 concludes the thesis by offering survey evidence on the impact of political risk on debt default, as perceived and experienced by 103 finance professionals in 38 developing countries. Taken together, the results of the thesis suggest that various forms of political risk are associated with international debt defaults and continue to pose great concerns for both international creditors and borrowers in developing countries. The study provides new insights on the importance of variable selection in country risk analysis, and shows how political risk is actually perceived and experienced in the riskier, often lower income countries of the global economy.

Causes and consequences of variation in nestling immune function

Defence against pathogens is a vital need of all living organisms that has led to the evolution of complex immune mechanisms. However, although immunocompetence the ability to resist pathogens and control infection has in recent decades become a focus for research in evolutionary ecology, the variation in immune function observed in natural populations is relatively little understood. This thesis examines sources of this variation (environmental, genetic and maternal effects) during the nestling stage and its fitness consequences in wild populations of passerines: the blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus) and the collared flycatcher (Ficedula albicollis). A developing organism may face a dilemma as to whether to allocate limited resources to growth or to immune defences. The optimal level of investment in immunity is shaped inherently by specific requirements of the environment. If the probability of contracting infection is low, maintaining high growth rates even at the expense of immune function may be advantageous for nestlings, as body mass is usually a good predictor of post-fledging survival. In experiments with blue tits and haematophagous hen fleas (Ceratophyllus gallinae) using two methods, methionine supplementation (to manipulate nestlings resource allocation to cellular immune function) and food supplementation (to increase resource availability), I confirmed that there is a trade-off between growth and immunity and that the abundance of ectoparasites is an environmental factor affecting allocation of resources to immune function. A cross-fostering experiment also revealed that environmental heterogeneity in terms of abundance of ectoparasites may contribute to maintaining additive genetic variation in immunity and other traits. Animal model analysis of extensive data collected from the population of collared flycatchers on Gotland (Sweden) allowed examination of the narrow-sense heritability of PHA-response the most commonly used index of cellular immunocompetence in avian studies. PHA-response is not heritable in this population, but is subject to a non-heritable origin (presumably maternal) effect. However, experimental manipulation of yolk androgen levels indicates that the mechanism of the maternal effect in PHA-response is not in ovo deposition of androgens. The relationship between PHA-response and recruitment was studied for over 1300 collared flycatcher nestlings. Multivariate selection analysis shows that it is body mass, not PHA-response, that is under direct selection. PHA-response appears to be related to recruitment because of its positive relationship with body mass. These results imply that either PHA-response fails to capture the immune mechanisms that are relevant for defence against pathogens encountered by fledglings or that the selection pressure from parasites is not as strong as commonly assumed.

Primary Dislocation of the Patella : A Clinical Study

A total of 177 patients with primary dislocation of the patella (PDP) were admitted to two trauma centers in Helsinki, Finland during 1991 to 1992. The inclusion criteria were: 1. Acute (≤14 days old) first-time lateral dislocation of the patella. 2. No previous knee operations or major knee injuries. 3. No ligament injuries to be repaired. 4. No osteochondral fractures requiring fixation. 50 patients were excluded. 30 of these excluded patients would have met the inclusion criteria, 19 patients received treatment by consultants not involved in the study, 7 refused to participate and 4 had an erroneous randomization. 127 patients including, 82 females, were then randomized to have either tailor-made operative procedure (group O) or conservative treatment (group C). The aftercare was similar for both groups. The mean age of the patients was 20 (9-47) years. All patients were subjected to analysis of trauma history (starting position and knee movement during the dislocation), examination under anesthesia (EUA) and arthroscopy. 70 patients (52 females) were randomized by their odd year of birth to operative group O and 57 patients (30 females) by their even year of birth to conservative group C. The diagnosis of PDP was based on locked dislocation in 68 patients, on dislocatability in EUA in 47 patients, and on subluxation in EUA combined with typical intra-articular lesions in 12 patients. In group O, 63 patients had exploration of the injuries on the medial side of the knee and tailor made reconstruction added with lateral release in 54 cases. The medial injury was operated by suturing in 39 patients, by duplication in 18 patients and by additional augmentation of the medial patellofemoral ligament (MPFL) with adductor magnus tenodesis in 6 patients. 7 patients, without locking in trauma history and only subluxation in EUA had only lateral release for realignment. In adductor magnus tenodesis the proximal end of the distal tendinous part was rerouted to the upper medial border of the patella. In the conservative group C, the treatment was adjusted to the extent of patellar displacement in EUA. Patients with dislocation in EUA had 3 weeks’ immobilization with the knee in slight flexion. Mobilization was started with a soft patellar stabilizing orthosis (PSO) used for additional three weeks. The patients with subluxation in EUA wore an orthosis for six weeks. The aftercare was similar in group O. The outcome was similar in both groups. After an average of 25 (20-45) months´ follow-up, the subjective result was better in group C in respect of the mean Hughston VAS knee score (87 for group O and 90 for group C, p=0.04, visual analog scale), but similar in terms of the patient’s own overall opinion and the mean Lysholm II knee score. Recurrent instability episodes occurred in 18 patients in group O and in 20 patients in group C. After an average of 7 (6-9) years´ follow-up, the groups did not show statistical difference either in respect of the patient’s own overall opinion, or the mean Hughston VAS and Kujala knee scores. The proportions of stable patellae was 25/70 (36%) in group O and 17/57 (30%) in group O (p=0.5). In a multivariate risk analysis, there was a correlation between low Kujala score (<90) as dependent parameter and female gender (OR: 3.5; 95% CI: 1.4-9.0), and loose body on primary radiographs (OR: 4.1; 95% CI: 1.2-15). Recurrent instability correlated with young age at the time of PDP (OR: 0.9; 95% CI: 0.8-1.0/year). Girls with open tibial apophysis had the worst prognosis for instability (88%; 95% CI: 77-98). The most common mechanisms in trauma history of the patients were movement to flexion from a straight start (78%) and movement to extension from a well-bent start (8%). Spontaneous relocation of the patella had taken place in 13/39 of girls, in 11/21 of boys, in 26/42 of women and in 17/24 of men with skeletal maturity of the tibia. The dislocation in EUA was non-rotating in 96/126 patients followed by outward rotating dislocation in 14/126 patients. Operative treatment policy in PDP is not recommended. Locking tendency of the patella in PDP depended on the skeletal maturation. Recurrence rate after PDP was higher than expected.

Statistical analysis of the associations of hereditary factors with the risk of Type 1 diabetes and Diabetic Nephropathy based on the familial data collected through ascertaiment from population-based registers

In genetic epidemiology, population-based disease registries are commonly used to collect genotype or other risk factor information concerning affected subjects and their relatives. This work presents two new approaches for the statistical inference of ascertained data: a conditional and full likelihood approaches for the disease with variable age at onset phenotype using familial data obtained from population-based registry of incident cases. The aim is to obtain statistically reliable estimates of the general population parameters. The statistical analysis of familial data with variable age at onset becomes more complicated when some of the study subjects are non-susceptible, that is to say these subjects never get the disease. A statistical model for a variable age at onset with long-term survivors is proposed for studies of familial aggregation, using latent variable approach, as well as for prospective studies of genetic association studies with candidate genes. In addition, we explore the possibility of a genetic explanation of the observed increase in the incidence of Type 1 diabetes (T1D) in Finland in recent decades and the hypothesis of non-Mendelian transmission of T1D associated genes. Both classical and Bayesian statistical inference were used in the modelling and estimation. Despite the fact that this work contains five studies with different statistical models, they all concern data obtained from nationwide registries of T1D and genetics of T1D. In the analyses of T1D data, non-Mendelian transmission of T1D susceptibility alleles was not observed. In addition, non-Mendelian transmission of T1D susceptibility genes did not make a plausible explanation for the increase in T1D incidence in Finland. Instead, the Human Leucocyte Antigen associations with T1D were confirmed in the population-based analysis, which combines T1D registry information, reference sample of healthy subjects and birth cohort information of the Finnish population. Finally, a substantial familial variation in the susceptibility of T1D nephropathy was observed. The presented studies show the benefits of sophisticated statistical modelling to explore risk factors for complex diseases.

Fatty acids, fibre, carotenoids and tocopherols in relation to glucose metabolism in subjects at high risk for type 2 diabetes : a cross-sectional analysis

Fatty acids, fibre, carotenoids and tocopherols in relation to glucose metabolism in subjects at high risk for type 2 diabetes a cross-sectional analysis Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a heterogeneous disorder of carbohydrate, lipid and protein metabolism, resulting from genetics, environmental influences and interactions between these. The disease is characterized by insulin resistance, β-cell dysfunction, hepatic glucose overproduction and disordered fat mobilization and storage. The literature on associations between dietary factors and glucose metabolism is inconsistent. One factor behind the discrepant results may be genetic heterogeneity of study populations. Data on nutrient-gene interactions in relation to glucose metabolism are scarce. Thus, investigating high-risk populations and exploring nutrient-gene interactions are essential for improving the understanding of T2D aetiology. Ideally, this information could help to develop prevention programmes that take into account the genetic predisposition to the disease. In this study, associations between measures of glucose metabolism predicting T2D and fatty acids, antioxidative nutrients and fibre were examined in a high-risk population, i.e., in non-diabetic relatives of affected patients. Interactions between the PPARG Pro12Ala polymorphism and fatty acids on glucose metabolism were taken into consideration. This common polymorphism plays an important role in the regulation of glucose metabolism. The inverse associations observed between dietary fibre and insulin resistance are consistent with the prevailing recommendations urging increased intake of fibre to prevent T2D. Beneficial associations observed between the intake of carotenoids and glucose levels stress that a high consumption of vegetables, fruits and berries rich in carotenoids might also play a role in the prevention of T2D. Whether tocopherols have an independent association with glucose metabolism remains questionable. Observed interactions between fatty acids and glucose metabolism suggest that a high intake of palmitic acid is associated with high fasting glucose levels mainly in female Ala allele carriers. Furthermore, the PPARG Pro12Ala polymorphism may modify the metabolic response to dietary marine fat. The beneficial associations of high intake of marine n 3 fatty acids with insulin resistance and glucose levels may be restricted to carriers of the Ala allele. The findings pertain to subjects with a family history of T2D, and the cross-sectional nature of the study precludes inferences about causality. Results nevertheless show that associations of dietary factors with glucose metabolism may be modulated by the genetic makeup of an individual. Additional research is warranted to elucidate the role of probably numerous nutrient-gene interactions, some of which may be sex-specific, in the aetiology of T2D.