Tukien tuotannosta irrottamisen vaikutukset viljan, naudanlihan ja sianlihan tarjontaan Suomessa

This research discusses decoupling CAP (Common Agricultural Policy) support and impacts which may occur on grain cultivation area and supply of beef and pork in Finland. The study presents the definitions and studies on decoupled agricultural subsidies, the development of supply of grain, beef and pork in Finland and changes in leading factors affecting supply between 1970 and 2005. Decoupling agricultural subsidies means that the linkage between subsidies and production levels is disconnected; subsidies do not affect the amount produced. The hypothesis is that decoupling will decrease the amounts produced in agriculture substantially. In the supply research, the econometric models which represent supply of agricultural products are estimated based on the data of prices and amounts produced. With estimated supply models, the impacts of changes in prices and public policies, can be forecasted according to supply of agricultural products. In this study, three regression models describing combined cultivation areas of rye, wheat, oats and barley, and the supply of beef and pork are estimated. Grain cultivation area and supply of beef are estimated based on data from 1970 to 2005 and supply of pork on data from 1995 to 2005. The dependencies in the model are postulated to be linear. The explanatory variables in the grain model were average return per hectare, agricultural subsidies, grain cultivation area in the previous year and the cost of fertilization. The explanatory variables in the beef model were the total return from markets and subsidies and the amount of beef production in the previous year. In the pork model the explanatory variables were the total return, the price of piglet, investment subsidies, trend of increasing productivity and the dummy variable of the last quarter of the year. The R-squared of model of grain cultivation area was 0,81, the model of beef supply 0,77 and the model of pork supply 0,82. Development of grain cultivation area and supply of beef and pork was estimated for 2006 - 2013 with this regression model. In the basic scenario, development of explanatory variables in 2006 - 2013 was postulated to be the same as they used to be in average in 1995 - 2005. After the basic scenario the impacts of decoupling CAP subsidies and domestic subsidies on cultivation area and supply were simulated. According to the results of the decoupling CAP subsidies scenario, grain cultivation area decreases from 1,12 million hectares in 2005 to 1,0 million hectares in 2013 and supply of beef from 88,8 million kilos in 2005 to 67,7 million kilos in 2013. Decoupling domestic and investment subsidies will decrease the supply of pork from 194 million kilos in 2005 to 187 million kilos in 2006. By 2013 the supply of pork grows into 203 million kilos.

Decomposition of Scots pine fine woody debris in boreal conditions

"Litter quality and environmental effects on Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) fine woody debris (FWD) decomposition were examined in three forestry-drained peatlands representing different site types along a climatic gradient from the north boreal (Northern Finland) to south (Southern Finland) and hemiboreal (Central Estonia) conditions. Decomposition (percent mass loss) of FWD with diameter <= 10 mm (twigs) and FWD with diameter > 10 mm (branches) was measured using the litter bag method over 1-4-year periods. Overall, decomposition rates increased from north to south, the rate constants (k values) varying from 0.128 to 0.188 year(-1) and from 0.066 to 0.127 year(-1) for twigs and branches, respectively. On average, twigs had lost 34%, 19% and 19%, and branches 25%, 17% and 11% of their initial mass after 2 years of decomposition at the hemiboreal, south boreal and north boreal sites, respectively. After 4 years at the south boreal site the values were 48% for twigs and 42% for branches. Based on earlier studies, we suggest that the decomposition rates that we determined may be used for estimating Scots pine FWD decomposition in the boreal zone, also in upland forests. Explanatory models accounted for 50.4% and 71.2% of the total variation in FWD decomposition rates when the first two and all years were considered, respectively. The variables most related to FWD decomposition included the initial ash, water extractives and Klason lignin content of litter, and cumulative site precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration. Simulations of inputs and decomposition of Scots pine FWD and needle litter in south boreal conditions over a 60-year period showed that 72 g m(-2) of organic matter from FWD vs. 365 g m(-2) from needles accumulated in the forest floor. The annual inputs varied from 5.7 to 15.6 g m(-2) and from 92 to 152 g m(-2) for FWD and needles, respectively. Each thinning caused an increase in FWD inputs, Up to 510 g m(-2), while the needle inputs did not change dramatically. Because the annual FWD inputs were lowered following the thinnings, the overall effect of thinnings on C accumulation from FWD was slightly negative. The contribution of FWD to soil C accumulation, relative to needle litter, seems to be rather minor in boreal Scots pine forests. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved."

Silva Fennica Vol. 19, 1985.

Julkaistu Silva Fennica Vol. 19(4) -numeron liitteenä.