Community forestry and environmental literacy in northern Thailand : Towards collaborative natural resource management and conservation

Conservation and sustainable management of tropical forests needs a holistic approach: in addition to ecological concerns, socio-economic issues including cultural aspects must be taken into consideration. An ability to adapt practices is a key to successful collaborative natural resource management. Achieving this requires local participation and understanding of local conceptions of the environment. This study examined these issues in the context of northern Thailand. Northern uplands are the home of much of the remaining natural forest in Thailand and several ethnic minority groups commonly referred to as hill tribes. The overall purpose of this study was to grasp a regional view of an ethnically diverse forested area and to elicit prospects to develop community forestry for conservation purposes and for securing people s livelihood. Conservation was a central goal of management as the forests in the area were largely designated as protected. The aim was to study local perceptions, objectives, values and practices of forest management, under the umbrella of the concept environmental literacy, as well as the effects of forest policy on community management goals and activities. Environmental literacy refers to holistic understanding of the environment. It was used as a tool to examine people s views, interests, knowledge and motivation associated to forests. The material for this study was gathered in six villages in Chiang Mai Province. Three minority groups were included in the study, the Karen, Hmong and Lawa, and also the Thai. Household and focus group interviews were conducted in the villages. In addition, officials at district, regional and national levels, workers of non-governmental organisations, and academics were interviewed, and some data were gathered from the students of a local school. The results showed that motivation for protecting the forests existed among each ethnic group studied. This was a result of culture and traditions evolved in the forest environment but also of a need to adapt to a changed situation and environment and to outside pressures. The consequences of deforestation were widely agreed on in the villages, and the impact of socio-economic changes on the forests and livelihood was also recognised. The forest was regarded as a source of livelihood providing land, products and services essential to the people inhabiting rural uplands. Traditions, fire control, cooperation, reforestation, separation of protected and utilisable areas, and rules were viewed as central for conservation. For the villagers, however, conservation meant sustainable use, whereas the government has tended to prefer strict restrictions on forest resource use. Thus, conflicts had arisen. Between communities, cooperation was more dominant than conflict. The results indicated that the heterogeneity of forest dwellers, although it has to be recognised, should not be overemphasised: ethnic diversity can be considered as no major obstacle for successful community forestry. Collaborative management is particularly important in protected areas in order to meet the conservation goals while providing opportunities for livelihood. Forest management needs more positive incentives and increased dialogue.

Human genetic variation in the Baltic Sea region: Features of population history and natural selection

In this thesis, the genetic variation of human populations from the Baltic Sea region was studied in order to elucidate population history as well as evolutionary adaptation in this region. The study provided novel understanding of how the complex population level processes of migration, genetic drift, and natural selection have shaped genetic variation in North European populations. Results from genome-wide, mitochondrial DNA and Y-chromosomal analyses suggested that the genetic background of the populations of the Baltic Sea region lies predominantly in Continental Europe, which is consistent with earlier studies and archaeological evidence. The late settlement of Fennoscandia after the Ice Age and the subsequent small population size have led to pronounced genetic drift, especially in Finland and Karelia but also in Sweden, evident especially in genome-wide and Y-chromosomal analyses. Consequently, these populations show striking genetic differentiation, as opposed to much more homogeneous pattern of variation in Central European populations. Additionally, the eastern side of the Baltic Sea was observed to have experienced eastern influence in the genome-wide data as well as in mitochondrial DNA and Y-chromosomal variation – consistent with linguistic connections. However, Slavic influence in the Baltic Sea populations appears minor on genetic level. While the genetic diversity of the Finnish population overall was low, genome-wide and Y-chromosomal results showed pronounced regional differences. The genetic distance between Western and Eastern Finland was larger than for many geographically distant population pairs, and provinces also showed genetic differences. This is probably mainly due to the late settlement of Eastern Finland and local isolation, although differences in ancestral migration waves may contribute to this, too. In contrast, mitochondrial DNA and Y-chromosomal analyses of the contemporary Swedish population revealed a much less pronounced population structure and a fusion of the traces of ancient admixture, genetic drift, and recent immigration. Genome-wide datasets also provide a resource for studying the adaptive evolution of human populations. This study revealed tens of loci with strong signs of recent positive selection in Northern Europe. These results provide interesting targets for future research on evolutionary adaptation, and may be important for understanding the background of disease-causing variants in human populations.

Traditionally Protected Forests´ Role within Transforming Natural Resource Management Regimes in Taita Hills, Kenya

In Taita Hills, south-eastern Kenya, remnants of indigenous mountain rainforests play a crucial role as water towers and socio-cultural sites. They are pressurized due to poverty, shortage of cultivable land and the fading of traditional knowledge. This study examines the traditional ecological knowledge of Taitas and the ways it may be applied within transforming natural resource management regimes. I have analyzed some justifications for and hindrances to ethnodevelopment and participatory forest management in light of recently renewed Kenyan forest policies. Mixed methods were applied by combining an ethnographic approach with participatory GIS. I learned about traditionally protected forests and their ecological and cultural status through a seek out the expert method and with remote sensing data and tools. My informants were: 107 household interviewees, 257 focus group participants, 73 key informants and 87 common informants in participatory mapping. Religious leaders and state officials shared their knowledge for this study. I have gained a better understanding of the traditionally protected forests and sites through examining their ecological characteristics and relation to social dynamics, by evaluating their strengths and hindrances as sites for conservation of cultural and biological diversity. My results show that, these sites are important components of a complex socio-ecological system, which has symbolical status and sacred and mystical elements within it, that contributes to the connectivity of remnant forests in the agroforestry dominated landscape. Altogether, 255 plant species and 220 uses were recognized by the tradition experts, whereas 161 species with 108 beneficial uses were listed by farmers. Out of the traditionally protected forests studied 47 % were on private land and 23% on community land, leaving 9% within state forest reserves. A paradigm shift in conservation is needed; the conservation area approach is not functional for private lands or areas trusted upon communities. The role of traditionally protected forests in community-based forest management is, however, paradoxal, since communal approaches suggests equal participation of people, whereas management of these sites has traditionally been the duty of solely accredited experts in the village. As modernization has gathered pace such experts have become fewer. Sacredness clearly contributes but, it does not equal conservation. Various social, political and economic arrangements further affect the integrity of traditionally protected forests and sites, control of witchcraft being one of them. My results suggest that the Taita have a rich traditional ecological knowledge base, which should be more determinately integrated into the natural resource management planning processes.

Reconstructions of past climates from documentary and natural sources in Finland since the 18th century

In this paper both documentary and natural proxy data have been used to improve the accuracy of palaeoclimatic knowledge in Finland since the 18th century. Early meteorological observations from Turku (1748-1800) were analyzed first as a potential source of climate variability. The reliability of the calculated mean temperatures was evaluated by comparing them with those of contemporary temperature records from Stockholm, St. Petersburg and Uppsala. The resulting monthly, seasonal and yearly mean temperatures from 1748 to 1800 were compared with the present day mean values (1961-1990): the comparison suggests that the winters of the period 1749-1800 were 0.8 ºC colder than today, while the summers were 0.4 ºC warmer. Over the same period, springs were 0.9 ºC and autumns 0.1 ºC colder than today. Despite their uncertainties when compared with modern meteorological data, early temperature measurements offer direct and daily information about the weather for all months of the year, in contrast with other proxies. Secondly, early meteorological observations from Tornio (1737-1749) and Ylitornio (1792-1838) were used to study the temporal behaviour of the climate-tree growth relationship during the past three centuries in northern Finland. Analyses showed that the correlations between ring widths and mid-summer (July) temperatures did not vary significantly as a function of time. Early (June) and late summer (August) mean temperatures were secondary to mid-summer temperatures in controlling the radial growth. According the dataset used, there was no clear signature of temporally reduced sensitivity of Scots pine ring widths to mid-summer temperatures over the periods of early and modern meteorological observations. Thirdly, plant phenological data with tree-rings from south-west Finland since 1750 were examined as a palaeoclimate indicator. The information from the fragmentary, partly overlapping, partly nonsystematically biased plant phenological records of 14 different phenomena were combined into one continuous time series of phenological indices. The indices were found to be reliable indicators of the February to June temperature variations. In contrast, there was no correlation between the phenological indices and the precipitation data. Moreover, the correlations between the studied tree-rings and spring temperatures varied as a function of time and hence, their use in palaeoclimate reconstruction is questionable. The use of present tree-ring datasets for palaeoclimate purposes may become possible after the application of more sophisticated calibration methods. Climate variability since the 18th century is perhaps best seen in the fourth paper study of the multiproxy spring temperature reconstruction of south-west Finland. With the help of transfer functions, an attempt has been made to utilize both documentary and natural proxies. The reconstruction was verified with statistics showing a high degree of validity between the reconstructed and observed temperatures. According to the proxies and modern meteorological observations from Turku, springs have become warmer and have featured a warming trend since around the 1850s. Over the period of 1750 to around 1850, springs featured larger multidecadal low-frequency variability, as well as a smaller range of annual temperature variations. The coldest springtimes occurred around the 1840s and 1850s and the first decade of the 19th century. Particularly warm periods occurred in the 1760s, 1790s, 1820s, 1930s, 1970s and from 1987 onwards, although in this period cold springs occurred, such as the springs of 1994 and 1996. On the basis of the available material, long-term temperature changes have been related to changes in the atmospheric circulation, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (February-June).

The Tourism-Development Nexus in Namibia : A Study on National Tourism Policy and Local Tourism Enterprises' Policy Knowledge

The tourism development nexus in southern Africa involves highly topical issues related to tourism planning, power relations, community participation, and natural resources. Namibia offers a particularly interesting context for the study of these issues due to its colonial legacy, vast tourism potential, recently adopted tourism policy and community-based approaches to tourism and natural resource management. This study is an interdisciplinary endeavour to analyse the role of tourism in Namibia s post-apartheid transformation process by focusing on Namibian tourism policy and local tourism enterprises' policy knowledge. Major attention is paid to how the tourism policy's national development objectives are understood and conceptualised by the representatives of different tourism enterprises and the ways in which they relate to the practical needs of the enterprises. Through such local policy knowledge the study explores various opportunities, challenges and constraints related to the promotion of tourism as a development strategy. The study utilises a political economy approach to tourism and development through three current and interrelated discourses which are relevant in the Namibian context. These are tourism, power and inequality, tourism and sustainable development, and tourism and poverty reduction. The qualitative research material was gathered in Namibia in 2006-2007 and 2008. This material consists of 34 semi-structured interviews in 16 tourism enterprises, including private trophy hunting farms and private lodges, small tour operators and community-based tourism enterprises. In addition, the research material consists of observations in the enterprises, and 37 informal and 23 expert interviews. The findings indicate that in the light of local tourism enterprises the tourism policy objectives appear more complex and ambiguous. Furthermore, they involve multiple meanings and interpretations which reflect the socio-economic stratification of the informants and Namibian society, together with the professional stratification of the tourism enterprises and restrictions on the capacity of tourism to address the development objectives. In the light of such findings it is obvious that aspects of power and inequality affect the tourism development nexus in Namibia. The study concludes that, as in the case of other southern African countries, in order to promote sustainable development and reduce poverty, Namibia should not only target tourism growth but pay attention to who benefits from that growth and how. From a political economy point of view, it is important that prevailing structural challenges are addressed equally in the planning of tourism, development and natural resource management. Such approach would help the Namibian majority to enjoy the benefits of increasing tourism in the country.

Land leasing, land degradation and agricultural productivity in Finland

This study analysed whether the land tenure insecurity problem has led to a decline in long-term land improvements (liming and phosphorus fertilization) under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and Nordic production conditions in European Union (EU) countries such as Finland. The results suggests that under traditional cash lease contracts, which are encouraged by the existing land leasing regulations and agricultural subsidy programs, the land tenure insecurity problem on leased land reduces land improvements that have a long pay-back period. In particular, soil pH was found to be significantly lower on land cultivated under a lease contract compared to land owned by the farmers themselves. The results also indicate that land improvements could not be reversed by land markets, because land owners would otherwise have carried out land improvements even if not farming by themselves. To reveal the causality between land tenure and land improvements, the dynamic optimisation problem was solved by a stochastic dynamic programming routine with known parameters for one-period returns and transition equations. The model parameters represented Finnish soil quality and production conditions. The decision rules were solved for alternative likelihood scenarios over the continuation of the fixed-term lease contract. The results suggest that as the probability of non-renewal of the lease contract increases, farmers quickly reduce investments in irreversible land improvements and, thereafter, yields gradually decline. The simulations highlighted the observed trends of a decline in land improvements on land parcels that are cultivated under lease contracts. Land tenure has resulted in the neglect of land improvement in Finland. This study aimed to analyze whether these challenges could be resolved by a tax policy that encourages land sales. Using Finnish data, real estate tax and a temporal relaxation on the taxation of capital gains showed some potential for the restructuring of land ownership. Potential sellers who could not be revealed by traditional logit models were identified with the latent class approach. Those landowners with an intention to sell even without a policy change were sensitive to temporal relaxation in the taxation of capital gains. In the long term, productivity and especially productivity growth are necessary conditions for the survival of farms and the food industry in Finland. Technical progress was found to drive the increase in productivity. The scale had only a moderate effect and for the whole study period (1976–2006) the effect was close to zero. Total factor productivity (TFP) increased, depending on the model, by 0.6–1.7% per year. The results demonstrated that the increase in productivity was hindered by the policy changes introduced in 1995. It is also evidenced that the increase in land leasing is connected to these policy changes. Land institutions and land tenure questions are essential in agricultural and rural policies on all levels, from local to international. Land ownership and land titles are commonly tied to fundamental political, economic and social questions. A fair resolution calls for innovative and new solutions both on national and international levels. However, this seems to be a problem when considering the application of EU regulations to member states inheriting divergent landownership structures and farming cultures. The contribution of this study is in describing the consequences of fitting EU agricultural policy to Finnish agricultural land tenure conditions and heritage.

Poverty and the Environment : Investment Poverty and the Role of Assets in Generating Welfare for Farmer Households in the Province of Herrera, Panama

Köyhiä maanviljelijöitä on usein syytetty kehitysmaiden ympäristöongelmista. On väitetty, että eloonjäämistaistelu pakottaa heidät käyttämään maata ja muita luonnonvaroja lyhytnäköisesti. Harva asiaa koskeva tutkimus on kuitenkaan tukenut tätä väitettä; perheiden köyhyyden astetta ja heidän aiheuttamaansa ympäristövaikutusta ei ole kyetty kytkemään toisiinsa. Selkeyttääkseen köyhyys-ympäristö –keskustelua, Thomas Reardon ja Steven Vosti kehittivät investointiköyhyyden käsitteen. Se tunnistaa sen kenties suuren joukon maanviljelijäperheitä, jotka eivät ole köyhiä perinteisten köyhyysmittareiden mukaan, mutta joiden hyvinvointi ei ole riittävästi köyhyysrajojen yläpuolella salliakseen perheen investoida kestävämpään maankäyttöön. Reardon ja Vosti korostivat myös omaisuuden vaikutusta perheiden hyvinvointiin, ja uskoivat sen vaikuttavan tuotanto- ja investointipäätöksiin. Tässä tutkimuksessa pyritään vastaamaan kahteen kysymykseen: Miten investointiköyhyyttä voidaan ymmärtää ja mitata? Ja, mikä on viljelijäperheiden omaisuuden hyvinvointia lisäävä vaikutus? Tätä tutkimusta varten haastateltiin 402 maanviljelijäperhettä Väli-Amerikassa, Panaman tasavallan Herreran läänissä. Näiden perheiden hyvinvointia mitattiin heidän kulutuksensa mukaan, ja paikalliset köyhyysrajat laskettiin paikallisen ruoan hinnan mukaan. Herrerassa ihminen tarvitsee keskimäärin 494 dollaria vuodessa saadakseen riittävän ravinnon, tai 876 dollaria vuodessa voidakseen ravinnon lisäksi kattaa muitakin välttämättömiä menoja. Ruoka- eli äärimmäisen köyhyyden rajan alle jäi 15,4% tutkituista perheistä, ja 33,6% oli jokseenkin köyhiä, eli saavutti kyllä riittävän ravitsemuksen, muttei kyennyt kustantamaan muita perustarpeitaan. Molempien köyhyysrajojen yläpuolelle ylsi siis 51% tutkituista perheistä. Näiden köyhyysryhmien välillä on merkittäviä eroavaisuuksia ei vain perheiden varallisuuden, tulojen ja investointistrategioiden välillä, mutta myös perheiden rakenteessa, elinympäristössä ja mahdollisuuksissa saada palveluja. Investointiköyhyyden mittaaminen osoittautui haastavaksi. Herrerassa viljelijät eivät tee investointeja puhtaasti ympäristönsuojeluun, eikä maankäytön kestävyyttä muutenkaan pystytty yhdistämään perheiden hyvinvoinnin tasoon. Siksi investointiköyhyyttä etsittiin sellaisena hyvinvoinnin tasona, jonka alapuolella elävien perheiden parissa tuottavat maanparannusinvestoinnit eivät enää ole suorassa suhteessa hyvinvointiin. Tällaisia investointeja ovat mm. istutetut aidat, lannoitus ja paranneltujen laiduntyyppien viljely. Havaittiin, että jos perheen hyvinvointi putoaa alle 1000 dollarin/henkilö/vuosi, tällaiset tuottavat maanparannusinvestoinnit muuttuvat erittäin harvinaisiksi. Investointiköyhyyden raja on siis noin kaksi kertaa riittävän ravitsemuksen hinta, ja sen ylitti 42,3% tutkituista perheistä. Heille on tyypillistä, että molemmat puolisot käyvät työssä, ovat korkeasti koulutettuja ja yhteisössään aktiivisia, maatila tuottaa paremmin, tilalla kasvatetaan vaativampia kasveja, ja että he ovat kerryttäneet enemmän omaisuutta kuin investointi-köyhyyden rajan alla elävät perheet. Tässä tutkimuksessa kyseenalaistettiin yleinen oletus, että omaisuudesta olisi poikkeuksetta hyötyä viljelijäperheelle. Niinpä omaisuuden vaikutusta perheiden hyvinvointiin tutkittiin selvittämällä, mitä reittejä pitkin perheiden omistama maa, karja, koulutus ja työikäiset perheenjäsenet voisivat lisätä perheen hyvinvointia. Näiden hyvinvointi-mekanismien ajateltiin myös riippuvan monista väliin tulevista tekijöistä. Esimerkiksi koulutus voisi lisätä hyvinvointia, jos sen avulla saataisiin paremmin palkattuja töitä tai perustettaisiin yritys; mutta näihin mekanismeihin saattaa vaikuttaa vaikkapa etäisyys kaupungeista tai se, omistaako perhe ajoneuvon. Köyhimpien perheiden parissa nimenomaan koulutus olikin ainoa tutkittu omaisuuden muoto, joka edisti perheen hyvinvointia, kun taas maasta, karjasta tai työvoimasta ei ollut apua köyhyydestä nousemiseen. Varakkaampien perheiden parissa sen sijaan korkeampaa hyvinvointia tuottivat koulutuksen lisäksi myös maa ja työvoima, joskin monesta väliin tulevasta muuttujasta, kuten tuotantopanoksista riippuen. Ei siis ole automaatiota, jolla omaisuus parantaisi perheiden hyvinvointia. Vaikka rikkailla onkin yleensä enemmän karjaa kuin köyhemmillä, ei tässä aineistossa löydetty yhtään mekanismia, jota kautta karjan määrä tuottaisi korkeampaa hyvinvointia viljelijäperheille. Omaisuuden keräämisen ja hyödyntämisen strategiat myös muuttuvat hyvinvoinnin kasvaessa ja niihin vaikuttavat monet ulkoiset tekijät. Ympäristön ja köyhyyden suhde on siis edelleen epäselvä. Köyhyyden voittaminen vaatii pitkällä tähtäimellä sitä, että viljelijäperheet nousisivat investointiköyhyyden rajan yläpuolelle. Näin heillä olisi varaa alkaa kartuttaa omaisuutta ja investoida kestävämpään maankäyttöön. Tällä hetkellä kuitenkin isolle osalle herreralaisia perheitä tuo raja on kaukana tavoittamattomissa. Miten päästä yli tuhannen dollarin kulutukseen perheenjäsentä kohden, mikäli elintaso ei yllä edes riittävään ravitsemukseen? Ja sittenkin, vaikka hyvinvointi kohenisi, ei ympäristön kannalta parannuksia ole välttämättä odotettavissa, mikäli karjalaumat kasvavat ja eroosioalttiit laitumet leviävät.

The success of the diversified farm : resource-based view

Farms and rural areas have many specific valuable resources that can be used to create non-agricultural products and services. Most of the research regarding on-farm diversification has hitherto concentrated on business start-up or farm survival strategies. Resource allocation and also financial success have not been the primary focus of investigations as yet. In this study these specific topics were investigated i.e. resource allocation and also the financial success of diversified farms from a farm management perspective. The key question addressed in this dissertation, is how tangible and intangible resources of the diversified farm affect the financial success. This study’s theoretical background deals with resource-based theory, and also certain themes of the theory of learning organisation and other decision-making theories. Two datasets were utilised in this study. First, data were collected by postal survey in 2001 (n = 663). Second, data were collected in a follow-up survey in 2006 (n = 439). Data were analysed using multivariate data analyses and path analyses. The study results reveal that, diversified farms performed differently. Success and resources were linked. Professional and management skills affected other resources, and hence directly or indirectly influenced success per se. In the light of empirical analyses of this study, tangible and intangible resources owned by the diversified farm impacted on its financial success. The findings of this study underline the importance of skills and networks for entrepreneur(s). Practically speaking all respondents of this study used either agricultural resources for non-farm businesses or non-farm resources for agricultural enterprises. To share resources in this way was seen as a pragmatic opportunity recognised by farmers. One of the downsides of diversification might be the phenomenon of over-diversification, which can be defined as the situation in which a farm diversifies beyond its optimal limit. The empirical findings of this study reveal that capital and labour resource constrains did have adverse effects on financial success. The evidence indicates that farms that were capital and labour resource constrained in 2001 were still less profitable than their ‘no problems’ counterparts five years later.

Nitrous oxide emissions from selected natural and managed northern ecosystems

Microbial activity in soils is the main source of nitrous oxide (N2O) to the atmosphere. Nitrous oxide is a strong greenhouse gas in the troposphere and participates in ozone destructive reactions in the stratosphere. The constant increase in the atmospheric concentration, as well as uncertainties in the known sources and sinks of N2O underline the need to better understand the processes and pathways of N2O in terrestrial ecosystems. This study aimed at quantifying N2O emissions from soils in northern Europe and at investigating the processes and pathways of N2O from agricultural and forest ecosystems. Emissions were measured in forest ecosystems, agricultural soils and a landfill, using the soil gradient, chamber and eddy covariance methods. Processes responsible for N2O production, and the pathways of N2O from the soil to the atmosphere, were studied in the laboratory and in the field. These ecosystems were chosen for their potential importance to the national and global budget of N2O. Laboratory experiments with boreal agricultural soils revealed that N2O production increases drastically with soil moisture content, and that the contribution of the nitrification and denitrification processes to N2O emissions depends on soil type. Laboratory study with beech (Fagus sylvatica) seedlings demonstrated that trees can serve as conduits for N2O from the soil to the atmosphere. If this mechanism is important in forest ecosystems, the current emission estimates from forest soils may underestimate the total N2O emissions from forest ecosystems. Further field and laboratory studies are needed to evaluate the importance of this mechanism in forest ecosystems. The emissions of N2O from northern forest ecosystems and a municipal landfill were highly variable in time and space. The emissions of N2O from boreal upland forest soil were among the smallest reported in the world. Despite the low emission rates, the soil gradient method revealed a clear seasonal variation in N2O production. The organic topsoil was responsible for most of the N2O production and consumption in this forest soil. Emissions from the municipal landfill were one to two orders of magnitude higher than those from agricultural soils, which are the most important source of N2O to the atmosphere. Due to their small areal coverage, landfills only contribute minimally to national N2O emissions in Finland. The eddy covariance technique was demonstrated to be useful for measuring ecosystem-scale emissions of N2O in forest and landfill ecosystems. Overall, more measurements and integration between different measurement techniques are needed to capture the large variability in N2O emissions from natural and managed northern ecosystems.

Agricultural expansion and climate change in the Taita Hills, Kenya: an assessment of potential environmental impacts

The indigenous cloud forests in the Taita Hills have suffered substantial degradation for several centuries due to agricultural expansion. Currently, only 1% of the original forested area remains preserved in this region. Furthermore, climate change imposes an imminent threat for local economy and environmental sustainability. In such circumstances, elaborating tools to conciliate socioeconomic growth and natural resources conservation is an enormous challenge. This dissertation tackles essential aspects for understanding the ongoing agricultural activities in the Taita Hills and their potential environmental consequences in the future. Initially, alternative methods were designed to improve our understanding of the ongoing agricultural activities. Namely, methods for agricultural survey planning and to estimate evapotranspiration were evaluated, taking into account a number of limitations regarding data and resources availability. Next, this dissertation evaluates how upcoming agricultural expansion, together with climate change, will affect the natural resources in the Taita Hills up to the year 2030. The driving forces of agricultural expansion in the region were identified as aiming to delineate future landscape scenarios and evaluate potential impacts from the soil and water conservation point of view. In order to investigate these issues and answer the research questions, this dissertation combined state of the art modelling tools with renowned statistical methods. The results indicate that, if current trends persist, agricultural areas will occupy roughly 60% of the study area by 2030. Although the simulated land use changes will certainly increase soil erosion figures, new croplands are likely to come up predominantly in the lowlands, which comprise areas with lower soil erosion potential. By 2030, rainfall erosivity is likely to increase during April and November due to climate change. Finally, this thesis addressed the potential impacts of agricultural expansion and climate changes on Irrigation Water Requirements (IWR), which is considered another major issue in the context of the relations between land use and climate. Although the simulations indicate that climate change will likely increase annual volumes of rainfall during the following decades, IWR will continue to increase due to agricultural expansion. By 2030, new cropland areas may cause an increase of approximately 40% in the annual volume of water necessary for irrigation.

Numeroiden harhaa vai toteutuksen työkaluja? -indikaattorien käyttö maatalouden ympäristöpoliittisessa suunnittelussa

This research focused on indicators with the aim of recognizing the main characters of this particular tool. The planning and use of Finnish sustainability indicators for natural resource management was examined as well as the experiences about the international sets of agri-environmental indicators were described. In both cases, the actual utilization of information was found to be quite minimal. Indicators have succeeded in bringing more of environmental information into the processes of decision making, but information has not been directly shifted into the actions of natural resource management. The concept of technical use of indicators was presented and considered as a possible explanation for the failures of information transfer and communication. Traditionally indicators have been used in order to recognize and describe the performance of certain system; to provide clear operative message for the actors. In policy planning, the situation is essentially different. We may lack both the jointly shared and accepted objectives of development as well the reliable and representative methods for measuring the issue under attention. Therefore, the technical orientation of using indicators may cause several problems at the policy forum. The study identified the risks of 1) reduced informative basis of decision-making, 2) narrowed approach of interpreting the data, 3) the focus on the issues that already are best documented and provides the most representative data series, and 4) the risks of losing the systemic viewpoints while focusing on measurable details of the system. Technical use of indicators may also result the excessive focus on information while being detached from the actions. With sustainability indicators, the major emphasis was indeed paid with producing information while the reality of agricultural practices was left mostly unaffected. Therefore, the essential process of social learning, where actions and producing of relevant information are alternating was neither realized. This study underlines the complexity of information transfer, mutual communication and the learning of new practices. Besides the information and measurable number people also need personal experiences and interesting stories, which make them to understand the meaning of information in their own lives. Particularly important this is for thechildren, who are studying for to be the future decision-makers of food system; in production as well as the in consumption of food. Numbers will be useful tools of management as soon there exists the awareness of the direction, where to strive for.