85 resultados para Econometric methods
Resumo:
Two methods of pre-harvest inventory were designed and tested on three cutting sites containing a total of 197 500 m3 of wood. These sites were located on flat-ground boreal forests located in northwestern Quebec. Both methods studied involved scaling of trees harvested to clear the road path one year (or more) prior to harvest of adjacent cut-blocks. The first method (ROAD) considers the total road right-of-way volume divided by the total road area cleared. The resulting volume per hectare is then multiplied by the total cut-block area scheduled for harvest during the following year to obtain the total estimated cutting volume. The second method (STRATIFIED) also involves scaling of trees cleared from the road. However, in STRATIFIED, log scaling data are stratified by forest stand location. A volume per hectare is calculated for each stretch of road that crosses a single forest stand. This volume per hectare is then multiplied by the remaining area of the same forest stand scheduled for harvest one year later. The sum of all resulting estimated volumes per stand gives the total estimated cutting-volume for all cut-blocks adjacent to the studied road. A third method (MNR) was also used to estimate cut-volumes of the sites studied. This method represents the actual existing technique for estimating cutting volume in the province of Quebec. It involves summing the cut volume for all forest stands. The cut volume is estimated by multiplying the area of each stand by its estimated volume per hectare obtained from standard stock tables provided by the governement. The resulting total estimated volume per cut-block for all three methods was then compared with the actual measured cut-block volume (MEASURED). This analysis revealed a significant difference between MEASURED and MNR methods with the MNR volume estimate being 30 % higher than MEASURED. However, no significant difference from MEASURED was observed for volume estimates for the ROAD and STRATIFIED methods which respectively had estimated cutting volumes 19 % and 5 % lower than MEASURED. Thus the ROAD and STRATIFIED methods are good ways to estimate cut-block volumes after road right-of-way harvest for conditions similar to those examined in this study.
Resumo:
This thesis report attempts to improve the models for predicting forest stand structure for practical use, e.g. forest management planning (FMP) purposes in Finland. Comparisons were made between Weibull and Johnson s SB distribution and alternative regression estimation methods. Data used for preliminary studies was local but the final models were based on representative data. Models were validated mainly in terms of bias and RMSE in the main stand characteristics (e.g. volume) using independent data. The bivariate SBB distribution model was used to mimic realistic variations in tree dimensions by including within-diameter-class height variation. Using the traditional method, diameter distribution with the expected height resulted in reduced height variation, whereas the alternative bivariate method utilized the error-term of the height model. The lack of models for FMP was covered to some extent by the models for peatland and juvenile stands. The validation of these models showed that the more sophisticated regression estimation methods provided slightly improved accuracy. A flexible prediction and application for stand structure consisted of seemingly unrelated regression models for eight stand characteristics, the parameters of three optional distributions and Näslund s height curve. The cross-model covariance structure was used for linear prediction application, in which the expected values of the models were calibrated with the known stand characteristics. This provided a framework to validate the optional distributions and the optional set of stand characteristics. Height distribution is recommended for the earliest state of stands because of its continuous feature. From the mean height of about 4 m, Weibull dbh-frequency distribution is recommended in young stands if the input variables consist of arithmetic stand characteristics. In advanced stands, basal area-dbh distribution models are recommended. Näslund s height curve proved useful. Some efficient transformations of stand characteristics are introduced, e.g. the shape index, which combined the basal area, the stem number and the median diameter. Shape index enabled SB model for peatland stands to detect large variation in stand densities. This model also demonstrated reasonable behaviour for stands in mineral soils.
Resumo:
This thesis presents ab initio studies of two kinds of physical systems, quantum dots and bosons, using two program packages of which the bosonic one has mainly been developed by the author. The implemented models, \emph{i.e.}, configuration interaction (CI) and coupled cluster (CC) take the correlated motion of the particles into account, and provide a hierarchy of computational schemes, on top of which the exact solution, within the limit of the single-particle basis set, is obtained. The theory underlying the models is presented in some detail, in order to provide insight into the approximations made and the circumstances under which they hold. Some of the computational methods are also highlighted. In the final sections the results are summarized. The CI and CC calculations on multiexciton complexes in self-assembled semiconductor quantum dots are presented and compared, along with radiative and non-radiative transition rates. Full CI calculations on quantum rings and double quantum rings are also presented. In the latter case, experimental and theoretical results from the literature are re-examined and an alternative explanation for the reported photoluminescence spectra is found. The boson program is first applied on a fictitious model system consisting of bosonic electrons in a central Coulomb field for which CI at the singles and doubles level is found to account for almost all of the correlation energy. Finally, the boson program is employed to study Bose-Einstein condensates confined in different anisotropic trap potentials. The effects of the anisotropy on the relative correlation energy is examined, as well as the effect of varying the interaction potential.}
Resumo:
In order to evaluate the influence of ambient aerosol particles on cloud formation, climate and human health, detailed information about the concentration and composition of ambient aerosol particles is needed. The dura-tion of aerosol formation, growth and removal processes in the atmosphere range from minutes to hours, which highlights the need for high-time-resolution data in order to understand the underlying processes. This thesis focuses on characterization of ambient levels, size distributions and sources of water-soluble organic carbon (WSOC) in ambient aerosols. The results show that in the location of this study typically 50-60 % of organic carbon in fine particles is water-soluble. The amount of WSOC was observed to increase as aerosols age, likely due to further oxidation of organic compounds. In the boreal region the main sources of WSOC were biomass burning during the winter and secondary aerosol formation during the summer. WSOC was mainly attributed to a fine particle mode between 0.1 - 1 μm, although different size distributions were measured for different sources. The WSOC concentrations and size distributions had a clear seasonal variation. Another main focus of this thesis was to test and further develop the high-time-resolution methods for chemical characterization of ambient aerosol particles. The concentrations of the main chemical components (ions, OC, EC) of ambient aerosol particles were measured online during a year-long intensive measurement campaign conducted on the SMEAR III station in Southern Finland. The results were compared to the results of traditional filter collections in order to study sampling artifacts and limitations related to each method. To achieve better a time resolution for the WSOC and ion measurements, a particle-into-liquid sampler (PILS) was coupled with a total organic carbon analyzer (TOC) and two ion chromatographs (IC). The PILS-TOC-IC provided important data about diurnal variations and short-time plumes, which cannot be resolved from the filter samples. In summary, the measurements made for this thesis provide new information on the concentrations, size distribu-tions and sources of WSOC in ambient aerosol particles in the boreal region. The analytical and collection me-thods needed for the online characterization of aerosol chemical composition were further developed in order to provide more reliable high-time-resolution measurements.
Resumo:
Positron emission tomography (PET) is a molecular imaging technique that utilises radiopharmaceuticals (radiotracers) labelled with a positron-emitting radionuclide, such as fluorine-18 (18F). Development of a new radiotracer requires an appropriate radiosynthesis method: the most common of which with 18F is nucleophilic substitution with [18F]fluoride ion. The success of the labelling reaction is dependent on various factors such as the reactivity of [18F]fluoride, the structure of the target compound in addition to the chosen solvent. The overall radiosynthesis procedure must be optimised in terms of radiochemical yield and quality of the final product. Therefore, both quantitative and qualitative radioanalytical methods are essential in developing radiosynthesis methods. Furthermore, biological properties of the tracer candidate need to be evaluated by various pre-clinical studies in animal models. In this work, the feasibility of various nucleophilic 18F-fluorination strategies were studied and a labelling method for a novel radiotracer, N-3-[18F]fluoropropyl-2beta-carbomethoxy-3beta-4-fluorophenyl)nortropane ([18F]beta-CFT-FP), was optimised. The effect of solvent was studied by labelling a series of model compounds, 4-(R1-methyl)benzyl R2-benzoates. 18F-Fluorination reactions were carried out both in polar aprotic and protic solvents (tertiary alcohols). Assessment of the 18F-fluorinated products was studied by mass spectrometry (MS) in addition to conventional radiochromatographic methods, using radiosynthesis of 4-[18F]fluoro-N-[2-[1-(2-methoxyphenyl)-1-piperazinyl]ethyl-N-2-pyridinyl-benzamide (p-[18F]MPPF) as a model reaction. Labelling of [18F]beta-CFT-FP was studied using two 18F-fluoroalkylation reagents, [18F]fluoropropyl bromide and [18F]fluoropropyl tosylate, as well as by direct 18F-fluorination of sulfonate ester precursor. Subsequently, the suitability of [18F]beta-CFT-FP for imaging dopamine transporter (DAT) was evaluated by determining its biodistribution in rats. The results showed that protic solvents can be useful co-solvents in aliphatic 18F-fluorinations, especially in the labelling of sulfonate esters. Aromatic 18F-fluorination was not promoted in tert-alcohols. Sensitivity of the ion trap MS was sufficient for the qualitative analysis of the 18F-labelled products; p-[18F]MPPF was identified from the isolated product fraction with a mass-to-charge (m/z) ratio of 435 (i.e. protonated molecule [M+H]+). [18F]beta-CFT-FP was produced most efficiently via [18F]fluoropropyl tosylate, leading to sufficient radiochemical yield and specific radioactivity for PET studies. The ex vivo studies in rats showed fast kinetics as well as the specific uptake of [18F]beta-CFT-FP to the DAT rich brain regions. Thus, it was concluded that [18F]beta-CFT-FP has potential as a radiotracer for imaging DAT by PET.
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This thesis studies the effect of income inequality on economic growth. This is done by analyzing panel data from several countries with both short and long time dimensions of the data. Two of the chapters study the direct effect of inequality on growth, and one chapter also looks at the possible indirect effect of inequality on growth by assessing the effect of inequality on savings. In Chapter two, the effect of inequality on growth is studied by using a panel of 70 countries and a new EHII2008 inequality measure. Chapter contributes on two problems that panel econometric studies on the economic effect of inequality have recently encountered: the comparability problem associated with the commonly used Deininger and Squire s Gini index, and the problem relating to the estimation of group-related elasticities in panel data. In this study, a simple way to 'bypass' vagueness related to the use of parametric methods to estimate group-related parameters is presented. The idea is to estimate the group-related elasticities implicitly using a set of group-related instrumental variables. The estimation results with new data and method indicate that the relationship between income inequality and growth is likely to be non-linear. Chapter three incorporates the EHII2.1 inequality measure and a panel with annual time series observations from 38 countries to test the existence of long-run equilibrium relation(s) between inequality and the level of GDP. Panel unit root tests indicate that both the logarithmic EHII2.1 inequality measure and the logarithmic GDP per capita series are I(1) nonstationary processes. They are also found to be cointegrated of order one, which implies that there is a long-run equilibrium relation between them. The long-run growth elasticity of inequality is found to be negative in the middle-income and rich economies, but the results for poor economies are inconclusive. In the fourth Chapter, macroeconomic data on nine developed economies spanning across four decades starting from the year 1960 is used to study the effect of the changes in the top income share to national and private savings. The income share of the top 1 % of population is used as proxy for the distribution of income. The effect of inequality on private savings is found to be positive in the Nordic and Central-European countries, but for the Anglo-Saxon countries the direction of the effect (positive vs. negative) remains somewhat ambiguous. Inequality is found to have an effect national savings only in the Nordic countries, where it is positive.
Resumo:
Pro gradu -tutkielman tavoite on mallintaa suomalaisten yksityismetsien raakapuun tarjontaa vuosien 1999-2009 puukauppa-aineistolla. Tutkielman tulos on raakapuun kantohinnasta ja muista tarpeellisista selittävistä muuttujista riippuva tarjonnan funktio kaikille käsitellyille raakapuulajeille. Tutkielman toimeksiantaa UPM-Kymmene Oyj. Tarkoitus on, että tarjontafunktioiden ja lopputuotteidensa kysynnän tuntemuksen avulla UPM-Kymmene voi tarkastella mahdollisuuksiaan puunhankintaan tulevaisuudessa. Tutkielma esittelee suomalaisen raakapuumarkkinan erityispiirteitä, metsäekonomista teoriaa raakapuun tarjonnasta sekä aihetta koskevien aiempien empiiristen tutkimusten tuloksia. Esittelyn perusteella löydetään kysymyksenasettelun kannalta hinnan lisäksi kiinnostavimmat muuttujat tarjonnan vaihtelun selittämiseen. Osoittautuu, että vaikka kysyntäfunktion olemassaolon taloustieteellinen perusteltavuus suomalaisella raakapuumarkkinalla on kyseenalainen, ostomäärän ja hinnan samanaikainen määräytyminen aiheuttaa aineistossa riippuvuutta tarjontamallien virhetermin ja selittävänä muuttujana käytettävän kantohinnan välillä. Tutkielma jatkuu simultaanisuusharhan, instrumenttimuuttujamenetelmän ja kaksivaiheisen pienimmän neliösumman menetelmän esittelyllä seuraten Hamiltonin kirjaa 77me Serres Analysis (1994) sekä Davidsonin ja MacKinnonin kirjaa Econometric Theory and Methods (2004). Tarkentuvaa estimaattoria varten tarvitaan instrumenttimuuttujia, jotka valitaan kunkin raakapuulajin mallille erikseen. Osassa tarjontamalleista havaitaan estimolntimenetelmän kannalta olennaista muuttujien epästationaarisuutta, joka perustellaan seurauksettomaksi soveltaen johtopäätöksiä Hsiaon artikkelista Statistical Properties of the Tvvo-Stage Least Squares Estimator Under Cointegration (1997). Diagnostisen tarkastelun jälkeen mallit todetaan moitteettomiksi. Tulosten mukaan raakapuun tarjonnan hintajousto on korkeampi kuin esitellyissä aikaisemmissa empiirisissä tutkimuksissa. Lisäksi käsiteltyjen kuitupuulajien tarjontojen hintajoustot ovat tukkipuulajien joustoja korkeampia, mikä on metsänhoidollisin syin perusteltavaa. Tarjonta ei sen sijaan näytä juuri reagoineen käsitellylle aikajaksolle sattuneisiin veromuutoksiin. Osoittautuu myös, ettei tarjonta riipu voimakkaasti sijoitetun pääoman hinnasta eli korosta. Valtiotieteellisen tiedekunnan dekaani ja UPM-Kymmene sopivat vuonna 2009, että pro gradu -tutkielmasta säilytetään valtiotieteellisen tiedekunnan kirjastossa sensuroitua kappaletta, josta yksityiskohtaisimmat lopputulokset jätetään pois. Tämä tutkielman kappale on suppea, siten sivumäärältään tiivistelmäsivun tietoa lyhyempi.
Resumo:
Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and Streptococcus pneumoniae are major health problems worldwide, both found in symptomless carriage but also causing even life-threatening infections. The aim of this thesis was to characterise MRSA and S. pneumoniae in detail by using several molecular typing methods for various epidemiological purposes: clonality analysis, epidemiological surveillance, outbreak investigation, and virulence factor analysis. The characteristics of MRSA isolates from the strain collection of the Finnish National Infectious Disease Register (NIDR) and pneumococcal isolates collected from military recruits and children with acute otitis media (AOM) were analysed using various typing techniques. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing, pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE), multilocus sequence typing (MLST), spa typing, staphylococcal cassette chromosome mec (SCCmec) typing, and the detection of Panton-Valentine leukocidin (PVL) genes were performed for MRSA isolates. Pneumococcal isolates were analysed using antimicrobial susceptibility testing, serotyping, MLST, and by detecting pilus islet 1 (PI-1) and 2 (PI-2) genes. Several international community- and hospital-associated MRSA clones were recognised in Finland. The genetic diversity among MRSA FIN-4 isolates and among FIN-16 isolates was low. Overall, MRSA blood isolates from 1997 to 2006 were genetically diverse. spa typing was found to be a highly discriminatory, rapid and accurate typing method and it also qualifies as the primary typing method in countries with a long history of PFGE-based MRSA strain nomenclature. However, additional typing by another method, e.g. PFGE, is needed in certain situations to be able to provide adequate discrimination for epidemiological surveillance and outbreak investigation. An outbreak of pneumonia was associated with one pneumococcal strain among military recruits, previously healthy young men living in a crowded setting. The pneumococcal carriage rate after the outbreak was found to be exceptionally high. PI-1 genes were detected at a rather low prevalence among pneumococcal isolates from children with AOM. However, the study demonstrated that PI-1 has existed among pneumococcal isolates prior to pneumococcal conjugate vaccine and the increased antimicrobial resistance era. Moreover, PI-1 was found to associate with the serotype rather than the genotype. This study adds to our understanding of the molecular epidemiology of MRSA strains in Finland and the importance of an appropriate genotyping method to be able to perform high-level laboratory-based surveillance of MRSA. Epidemiological and molecular analyses of S. pneumoniae add to our knowledge of the characteristics of pneumococcal strains in Finland.
Resumo:
Finite-state methods have been adopted widely in computational morphology and related linguistic applications. To enable efficient development of finite-state based linguistic descriptions, these methods should be a freely available resource for academic language research and the language technology industry. The following needs can be identified: (i) a registry that maps the existing approaches, implementations and descriptions, (ii) managing the incompatibilities of the existing tools, (iii) increasing synergy and complementary functionality of the tools, (iv) persistent availability of the tools used to manipulate the archived descriptions, (v) an archive for free finite-state based tools and linguistic descriptions. Addressing these challenges contributes to building a common research infrastructure for advanced language technology.