Modeling and Forecasting Implied Volatility: Implications for Trading, Pricing, and Risk Management

Modeling and forecasting of implied volatility (IV) is important to both practitioners and academics, especially in trading, pricing, hedging, and risk management activities, all of which require an accurate volatility. However, it has become challenging since the 1987 stock market crash, as implied volatilities (IVs) recovered from stock index options present two patterns: volatility smirk(skew) and volatility term-structure, if the two are examined at the same time, presents a rich implied volatility surface (IVS). This implies that the assumptions behind the Black-Scholes (1973) model do not hold empirically, as asset prices are mostly influenced by many underlying risk factors. This thesis, consists of four essays, is modeling and forecasting implied volatility in the presence of options markets’ empirical regularities. The first essay is modeling the dynamics IVS, it extends the Dumas, Fleming and Whaley (DFW) (1998) framework; for instance, using moneyness in the implied forward price and OTM put-call options on the FTSE100 index, a nonlinear optimization is used to estimate different models and thereby produce rich, smooth IVSs. Here, the constant-volatility model fails to explain the variations in the rich IVS. Next, it is found that three factors can explain about 69-88% of the variance in the IVS. Of this, on average, 56% is explained by the level factor, 15% by the term-structure factor, and the additional 7% by the jump-fear factor. The second essay proposes a quantile regression model for modeling contemporaneous asymmetric return-volatility relationship, which is the generalization of Hibbert et al. (2008) model. The results show strong negative asymmetric return-volatility relationship at various quantiles of IV distributions, it is monotonically increasing when moving from the median quantile to the uppermost quantile (i.e., 95%); therefore, OLS underestimates this relationship at upper quantiles. Additionally, the asymmetric relationship is more pronounced with the smirk (skew) adjusted volatility index measure in comparison to the old volatility index measure. Nonetheless, the volatility indices are ranked in terms of asymmetric volatility as follows: VIX, VSTOXX, VDAX, and VXN. The third essay examines the information content of the new-VDAX volatility index to forecast daily Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimates and compares its VaR forecasts with the forecasts of the Filtered Historical Simulation and RiskMetrics. All daily VaR models are then backtested from 1992-2009 using unconditional, independence, conditional coverage, and quadratic-score tests. It is found that the VDAX subsumes almost all information required for the volatility of daily VaR forecasts for a portfolio of the DAX30 index; implied-VaR models outperform all other VaR models. The fourth essay models the risk factors driving the swaption IVs. It is found that three factors can explain 94-97% of the variation in each of the EUR, USD, and GBP swaption IVs. There are significant linkages across factors, and bi-directional causality is at work between the factors implied by EUR and USD swaption IVs. Furthermore, the factors implied by EUR and USD IVs respond to each others’ shocks; however, surprisingly, GBP does not affect them. Second, the string market model calibration results show it can efficiently reproduce (or forecast) the volatility surface for each of the swaptions markets.

Essays on Market Microstructure: Price Discovery and Informed Trading

Market microstructure is “the study of the trading mechanisms used for financial securities” (Hasbrouck (2007)). It seeks to understand the sources of value and reasons for trade, in a setting with different types of traders, and different private and public information sets. The actual mechanisms of trade are a continually changing object of study. These include continuous markets, auctions, limit order books, dealer markets, or combinations of these operating as a hybrid market. Microstructure also has to allow for the possibility of multiple prices. At any given time an investor may be faced with a multitude of different prices, depending on whether he or she is buying or selling, the quantity he or she wishes to trade, and the required speed for the trade. The price may also depend on the relationship that the trader has with potential counterparties. In this research, I touch upon all of the above issues. I do this by studying three specific areas, all of which have both practical and policy implications. First, I study the role of information in trading and pricing securities in markets with a heterogeneous population of traders, some of whom are informed and some not, and who trade for different private or public reasons. Second, I study the price discovery of stocks in a setting where they are simultaneously traded in more than one market. Third, I make a contribution to the ongoing discussion about market design, i.e. the question of which trading systems and ways of organizing trading are most efficient. A common characteristic throughout my thesis is the use of high frequency datasets, i.e. tick data. These datasets include all trades and quotes in a given security, rather than just the daily closing prices, as in traditional asset pricing literature. This thesis consists of four separate essays. In the first essay I study price discovery for European companies cross-listed in the United States. I also study explanatory variables for differences in price discovery. In my second essay I contribute to earlier research on two issues of broad interest in market microstructure: market transparency and informed trading. I examine the effects of a change to an anonymous market at the OMX Helsinki Stock Exchange. I broaden my focus slightly in the third essay, to include releases of macroeconomic data in the United States. I analyze the effect of these releases on European cross-listed stocks. The fourth and last essay examines the uses of standard methodologies of price discovery analysis in a novel way. Specifically, I study price discovery within one market, between local and foreign traders.

Short-term Price Behavior and the Effect of Foreign Investors in Finnish Equity Markets (summary section only)

As globalization and capital free movement has increased, so has interest in the effects of that global money flow, especially during financial crises. The concern has been that large global money flows will affect the pricing of small local markets by causing, in particular, overreaction. The purpose of this thesis is to contribute to the body of work concerning short-term under- and overreaction and the short-term effects of foreign investment flow in the small Finnish equity markets. This thesis also compares foreign execution return to domestic execution return. This study’s results indicate that short-term under- and overreaction occurs in domestic-buy portfolios (domestic net buying) rather than in foreign-buy portfolios. This under- and overreaction, however, is not economically meaningful after controlling for the bid-ask bounce effect. Based on this finding, one can conclude that foreign investors do not have a destabilizing effect in the short-term in the Finnish markets. Foreign activity affects short-term returns. When foreign investors are net buyers (sellers) there are positive (negative) market adjusted returns. Literature related to nationality and institutional effect leads us to expect these kind of results. These foreign flows are persistent at a 5 % to 21 % level and the persistence of foreign buy flow is higher than the foreign sell flow. Foreign daily trading execution is worse than domestic execution. Literature which quantifies foreign investors as liquidity demanders and literature related to front-running leads us to expect poorer foreign execution than domestic execution.

An Empirical Investigation of Value-at-Risk in Long and Short Trading Positions

This paper uses the Value-at-Risk approach to define the risk in both long and short trading positions. The investigation is done on some major market indices(Japanese, UK, German and US). The performance of models that takes into account skewness and fat-tails are compared to symmetric models in relation to both the specific model for estimating the variance, and the distribution of the variance estimate used as input in the VaR estimation. The results indicate that more flexible models not necessarily perform better in predicting the VaR forecast; the reason for this is most probably the complexity of these models. A general result is that different methods for estimating the variance are needed for different confidence levels of the VaR, and for the different indices. Also, different models are to be used for the left respectively the right tail of the distribution.

Activityscape Mapping: Consumer Activity Systems as Service Context

Activity systems are the cognitively linked groups of activities that consumers carry out as a part of their daily life. The aim of this paper is to investigate how consumers experience value through their activities, and how services fit into the context of activity systems. A new technique for illustrating consumers’ activity systems is introduced. The technique consists of identifying a consumer’s activities through an interview, then quantitatively measuring how the consumer evaluates the identified activities on three dimensions: Experienced benefits, sacrifices and frequency. This information is used to create a graphical representation of the consumer’s activity system, an “activityscape map”. Activity systems work as infrastructure for the individual consumer’s value experience. The paper contributes to value and service literature, where there currently are no clearly described standardized techniques for visually mapping out individual consumer activity. Existing approaches are service- or relationship focused, and are mostly used to identify activities, not to understand them. The activityscape representation provides an overview of consumers’ perceptions of their activity patterns and the position of one or several services in this pattern. Comparing different consumers’ activityscapes, it shows the differences between consumers' activity structures, and provides insight into how services are used to create value within them. The paper is conceptual; an empirical illustration is used to indicate the potential in further empirical studies. The technique can be used by businesses to understand contexts for service use, which may uncover potential for business reconfiguration and customer segmentation.

Chemicals risk modeling : toxic effect risks imposed on aquatic organisms by industrial activity

Yhteenveto: Kemikaalien teollisesta käsittelystä vesieliöille aiheutuvien riskien arviointi mallin avulla.

Activityscape Mapping: Consumer Activity Systems as Service Context

Activity systems are the cognitively linked groups of activities that consumers carry out as a part of their daily life. The aim of this paper is to investigate how consumers experience value through their activities, and how services fit into the context of activity systems. A new technique for illustrating consumers’ activity systems is introduced. The technique consists of identifying a consumer’s activities through an interview, then quantitatively measuring how the consumer evaluates the identified activities on three dimensions: Experienced benefits, sacrifices and frequency. This information is used to create a graphical representation of the consumer’s activity system, an “activityscape map”. Activity systems work as infrastructure for the individual consumer’s value experience. The paper contributes to value and service literature, where there currently are no clearly described standardized techniques for visually mapping out individual consumer activity. Existing approaches are service- or relationship focused, and are mostly used to identify activities, not to understand them. The activityscape representation provides an overview of consumers’ perceptions of their activity patterns and the position of one or several services in this pattern. Comparing different consumers’ activityscapes, it shows the differences between consumers' activity structures, and provides insight into how services are used to create value within them. The paper is conceptual; an empirical illustration is used to indicate the potential in further empirical studies. The technique can be used by businesses to understand contexts for service use, which may uncover potential for business reconfiguration and customer segmentation.

Analysts' Accuracy of Estimation and the Relative Trading Volume

This study contributes to the neglect effect literature by looking at the relative trading volume in terms of value. The results for the Swedish market show a significant positive relationship between the accuracy of estimation and the relative trading volume. Market capitalisation and analyst coverage have in prior studies been used as proxies for neglect. These measures however, do not take into account the effort analysts put in when estimating corporate pre-tax profits. I also find evidence that the industry of the firm influence the accuracy of estimation. In addition, supporting earlier findings, loss making firms are associated with larger forecasting errors. Further, I find that the average forecast error increased in the year 2000 – in Sweden.

Identification of TGFβ signaling, p53, and actin stress fibers as targets of LKB1 tumor suppressor activity

Tumorigenesis is a consequence of inactivating mutations of tumor suppressor genes and activating mutations of proto-oncogenes. Most of the mutations compromise cell autonomous and non-autonomous restrains on cell proliferation by modulating kinase signal transduction pathways. LKB1 is a tumor suppressor kinase whose sporadic mutations are frequently found in non-small cell lung cancer and cervical cancer. Germ-line mutations in the LKB1 gene lead to Peutz-Jeghers syndrome with an increased risk of cancer and development of benign gastrointestinal hamartomatous polyps consisting of hyperproliferative epithelia and prominent stromal stalk composed of smooth muscle cell lineage cells. The tumor suppressive function of LKB1 is possibly mediated by 14 identified LKB1 substrate kinases, whose activation is dependent on the LKB1 kinase complex. The aim of my thesis was to identify cell signaling pathways crucial for tumor suppression by LKB1. Re-introduction of LKB1 expression in the melanoma cell line G361 induces cell cycle arrest. Here we demonstrated that restoring the cytoplasmic LKB1 was sufficient to induce the cell cycle arrest in a tumor suppressor p53 dependent manner. To address the role of LKB1 in gastrointestinal tumor suppression, Lkb1 was deleted specifically in SMC lineage in vivo, which was sufficient to cause Peutz-Jeghers syndrome type polyposis. Studies on primary myofibroblasts lacking Lkb1 suggest that the regulation of TGFβ signaling, actin stress fibers and smooth muscle cell lineage differentiation are candidate mechanisms for tumor suppression by LKB1 in the gastrointestinal stroma. Further studies with LKB1 substrate kinase NUAK2 in HeLa cells indicate that NUAK2 is part of a positive feedback loop by which NUAK2 expression promotes actin stress fiber formation and, reciprocally the induction of actin stress fibers promote NUAK2 expression. Findings in this thesis suggest that p53 and TGFβ signaling pathways are potential mediators of tumor suppression by LKB1. An indication of NUAK2 in the promotion of actin stress fibers suggests that NUAK2 is one possible mediator of LKB1 dependent TGFβ signaling and smooth muscle cell lineage differentiation.

A new method for modulating the activity of parvalbumin-positive neurons and cerebellar Purkinje cells in vivo

Neurons can be divided into various classes according to their location, morphology, neurochemical identity and electrical properties. They form complex interconnected networks with precise roles for each cell type. GABAergic neurons expressing the calcium-binding protein parvalbumin (Pv) are mainly interneurons, which serve a coordinating function. Pv-cells modulate the activity of principal cells with high temporal precision. Abnormalities of Pv-interneuron activity in cortical areas have been linked to neuropsychiatric illnesses such as schizophrenia. Cerebellar Purkinje cells are known to be central to motor learning. They are the sole output from the layered cerebellar cortex to deep cerebellar nuclei. There are still many open questions about the precise role of Pv-neurons and Purkinje cells, many of which could be answered if one could achieve rapid, reversible cell-type specific modulation of the activity of these neurons and observe the subsequent changes at the whole-animal level. The aim of these studies was to develop a novel method for the modulation of Pv-neurons and Purkinje cells in vivo and to use this method to investigate the significance of inhibition in these neuronal types with a variety of behavioral experiments in addition to tissue autoradiography, electrophysiology and immunohistochemistry. The GABA(A) receptor γ2 subunit was ablated from Pv-neurons and Purkinje cells in four separate mouse lines. Pv-Δγ2 mice had wide-ranging behavioral alterations and increased GABA-insensitive binding indicative of an altered GABA(A) receptor composition, particularly in midbrain areas. PC-Δγ2 mice experienced little or no motor impairment despite the lack of inhibition in Purkinje cells. In Pv-Δγ2-partial rescue mice, a reversal of motor and cognitive deficits was observed in addition to restoration of the wild-type γ2F77 subunit to the reticular nucleus of thalamus and the cerebellar molecular layer. In PC-Δγ2-swap mice, zolpidem sensitivity was restored to Purkinje cells and the administration of systemic zolpidem evoked a transient motor impairment. On the basis of these results, it is concluded that this new method of cell-type specific modulation is a feasible way to modulate the activity of selected neuronal types. The importance of Purkinje cells to motor control supports previous studies, and the crucial involvement of Pv-neurons in a range of behavioral modalities is confirmed.

Learning Challenges in Biogas Production for Sustainability : An activity theoretical study of a network from a swine industry chain

This study is about the challenges of learning in the creation and implementation of new sustainable technologies. The system of biogas production in the Programme of Sustainable Swine Production (3S Programme) conducted by the Sadia food processing company in Santa Catarina State, Brazil, is used as a case example for exploring the challenges, possibilities and obstacles of learning in the use of biogas production as a way to increase the environmental sustainability of swine production. The aim is to contribute to the discussion about the possibilities of developing systems of biogas production for sustainability (BPfS). In the study I develop hypotheses concerning the central challenges and possibilities for developing systems of BPfS in three phases. First, I construct a model of the network of activities involved in the BP for sustainability in the case study. Next, I construct a) an idealised model of the historically evolved concepts of BPfS through an analysis of the development of forms of BP and b) a hypothesis of the current central contradictions within and between the activity systems involved in BP for sustainability in the case study. This hypothesis is further developed through two actual empirical analyses: an analysis of the actors senses in taking part in the system, and an analysis of the disturbance processes in the implementation and operation of the BP system in the 3S Programme. The historical analysis shows that BP for sustainability in the 3S Programme emerged as a feasible solution for the contradiction between environmental protection and concentration, intensification and specialisation in swine production. This contradiction created a threat to the supply of swine to the food processing company. In the food production activity, the contradiction was expressed as a contradiction between the desire of the company to become a sustainable company and the situation in the outsourced farms. For the swine producers the contradiction was expressed between the contradictory rules in which the market exerted pressure which pushed for continual increases in scale, specialisation and concentration to keep the production economically viable, while the environmental rules imposed a limit to this expansion. Although the observed disturbances in the biogas system seemed to be merely technical and localised within the farms, the analysis proposed that these disturbances were formed in and between the activity systems involved in the network of BPfS during the implementation. The disturbances observed could be explained by four contradictions: a) contradictions between the new, more expanded activity of sustainable swine production and the old activity, b) a contradiction between the concept of BP for carbon credits and BP for local use in the BPfS that was implemented, c) contradictions between the new UNFCCC1 methodology for applying for carbon credits and the small size of the farms, and d) between the technologies of biogas use and burning available in the market and the small size of the farms. The main finding of this study relates to the zone of proximal development (ZPD) of the BPfS in Sadia food production chain. The model is first developed as a general model of concepts of BPfS and further developed here to the specific case of the BPfS in the 3S Programme. The model is composed of two developmental dimensions: societal and functional integration. The dimension of societal integration refers to the level of integration with other activities outside the farm. At one extreme, biogas production is self-sufficient and highly independent and the products of BP are consumed within the farm, while at the other extreme BP is highly integrated in markets and networks of collaboration, and BP products are exchanged within the markets. The dimension of functional integration refers to the level of integration between products and production processes so that economies of scope can be achieved by combining several functions using the same utility. At one extreme, BP is specialised in only one product, which allows achieving economies of scale, while at the other extreme there is an integrated production in which several biogas products are produced in order to maximise the outcomes from the BP system. The analysis suggests that BP is moving towards a societal integration, towards the market and towards a functional integration in which several biogas products are combined. The model is a hypothesis to be further tested through interventions by collectively constructing the new proposed concept of BPfS. Another important contribution of this study refers to the concept of the learning challenge. Three central learning challenges for developing a sustainable system of BP in the 3S Programme were identified: 1) the development of cheaper and more practical technologies of burning and measuring the gas, as well as the reduction of costs of the process of certification, 2) the development of new ways of using biogas within farms, and 3) the creation of new local markets and networks for selling BP products. One general learning challenge is to find more varied and synergic ways of using BP products than solely for the production of carbon credits. Both the model of the ZPD of BPfS and the identified learning challenges could be used as learning tools to facilitate the development of biogas production systems. The proposed model of the ZPD could be used to analyse different types of agricultural activities that face a similar contradiction. The findings could be used in interventions to help actors to find their own expansive actions and developmental projects for change. Rather than proposing a standardised best concept of BPfS, the idea of these learning tools is to facilitate the analysis of local situations and to help actors to make their activities more sustainable.

Leisure-time physical activity, health related functioning and retirement : a prospective cohort study among middle-aged employees

Physical inactivity has become a major threat to public health worldwide. The Finnish health and welfare policies emphasize that the working population should maintain good health and functioning until their normal retirement age and remain in good health and independence later in life. Health behaviours like physical activity potentially play an important role in reaching this target as physical activity contributes to better physical fitness and to reduced risk of major chronic diseases. The aim of this study was to examine first whether the volume and intensity of leisure-time physical activity impacts on subsequent physical health functioning, sickness absence and disability retirement. The second aim was to examine changes in leisure-time physical activity of moderate and vigorous intensity after transition to retirement. This study is part of the ongoing Helsinki Health Study. The baseline data were collected by questionnaires in 2000 - 02 among the employees of the City of Helsinki aged 40 to 60. The follow-up survey data were collected in 2007. Data on sickness absence were obtained from the employer s (City of Helsinki) sickness absence registers and pension data were obtained from the Finnish Centre for Pensions. Leisure-time physical activity was measured in four grades of intensity and classified according to physical activity recommendations considering both the volume and intensity of physical activity. Statistical techniques including analysis of covariance, logistic regression, Cox proportional hazards models and Poisson regression were used. Employees who were vigorously active during leisure time especially had better physical health functioning than those physically inactive. High physical activity in particular contributed to the maintenance of good physical health functioning. High physical activity also reduced the risk of subsequent sickness absences as well as the risk of all-cause disability retirement and retirement due to musculoskeletal and mental causes. Among those transferred to old-age retirement moderate-intensity leisure-time physical activity increased on average by more than half an hour per week and in addition the occurrence of physical inactivity reduced. Such changes were not observed among those remained employed and those transferred to disability retirement. This prospective cohort study provided novel results on the effects of leisure-time physical activity on health related functioning and changes in leisure-time physical activity after retirement. Although the benefits of moderate-intensity physical activity for health are well known these results suggest the importance of vigorous physical activity for subsequent health related functioning. Thus vigorous physical activity to enhance fitness should be given more emphasis from a public health perspective. In addition, physical activity should be encouraged among those who are about to retire.