Paradigms in Statistical Inference for Finite Populations; Up to the 1950s

Modern sample surveys started to spread after statistician at the U.S. Bureau of the Census in the 1940s had developed a sampling design for the Current Population Survey (CPS). A significant factor was also that digital computers became available for statisticians. In the beginning of 1950s, the theory was documented in textbooks on survey sampling. This thesis is about the development of the statistical inference for sample surveys. For the first time the idea of statistical inference was enunciated by a French scientist, P. S. Laplace. In 1781, he published a plan for a partial investigation in which he determined the sample size needed to reach the desired accuracy in estimation. The plan was based on Laplace s Principle of Inverse Probability and on his derivation of the Central Limit Theorem. They were published in a memoir in 1774 which is one of the origins of statistical inference. Laplace s inference model was based on Bernoulli trials and binominal probabilities. He assumed that populations were changing constantly. It was depicted by assuming a priori distributions for parameters. Laplace s inference model dominated statistical thinking for a century. Sample selection in Laplace s investigations was purposive. In 1894 in the International Statistical Institute meeting, Norwegian Anders Kiaer presented the idea of the Representative Method to draw samples. Its idea was that the sample would be a miniature of the population. It is still prevailing. The virtues of random sampling were known but practical problems of sample selection and data collection hindered its use. Arhtur Bowley realized the potentials of Kiaer s method and in the beginning of the 20th century carried out several surveys in the UK. He also developed the theory of statistical inference for finite populations. It was based on Laplace s inference model. R. A. Fisher contributions in the 1920 s constitute a watershed in the statistical science He revolutionized the theory of statistics. In addition, he introduced a new statistical inference model which is still the prevailing paradigm. The essential idea is to draw repeatedly samples from the same population and the assumption that population parameters are constants. Fisher s theory did not include a priori probabilities. Jerzy Neyman adopted Fisher s inference model and applied it to finite populations with the difference that Neyman s inference model does not include any assumptions of the distributions of the study variables. Applying Fisher s fiducial argument he developed the theory for confidence intervals. Neyman s last contribution to survey sampling presented a theory for double sampling. This gave the central idea for statisticians at the U.S. Census Bureau to develop the complex survey design for the CPS. Important criterion was to have a method in which the costs of data collection were acceptable, and which provided approximately equal interviewer workloads, besides sufficient accuracy in estimation.

Mid-urethral slings for treatment of stress urinary incontinence : long- and mid-term follow-up

Urinary incontinence is a common problem, affecting one third of the women at least at some time during their lives. The prevalence of urinary incontinence increases with advancing age, and the everyday impact of incontinence on women and on health services is enormous. Urinary incontinence is usually divided into three different subtypes, of which stress urinary incontinence (SUI) is the most common. Surgical treatment is often needed to cure SUI, and modern mid-urethral sling procedures give the possibility to cure this condition with a low risk of adverse events, a problem often associated with the so-called traditional incontinence operations. Life expectancy among women in Western countries has grown beyond 80 years of age. Long-term efficacy of treatment options for urinary incontinence therefore becomes an important issue in a world with limited eco-nomic resources. The purpose of the present study was to prospectively evaluate the long-term efficacy and safety of the first minimally invasive mid-urethral tape procedure, the Tension-free Vaginal Tape (TVT) procedure. The long-term (5-year) follow-up results of the TVT procedure as a repeat operation af-ter an unsuccessful mid-urethral tape operation were studied and the reasons for failure of the first operation were analyzed. Another purpose was to compare the original TVT procedure with a newer modification, the Tension-free Vaginal Tape Obturator (TVT-O) procedure within a multi-centre, randomized context in order to find out possible differences between these procedures re-garding efficacy and complications and the effects on symptoms of urgency. The first study of the present thesis is a prospective, Nordic, three-centre follow-up study of 90 women suffering from SUI, who were treated by means of the TVT procedure. The mean follow-up time was more than eleven years, and the study is the first to be published in connection with more than ten years of follow-up. The second study is a retrospective analysis of 26 women who were treated with a repeat TVT procedure after an unsuccessful primary mid-urethral tape procedure. The third and fourth studies concern 273 women in seven centres in Finland who were ran-domly assigned to the TVT and TVT-O procedures, the 3-year follow-up results of which are pre-sented in this thesis. After eleven years of follow-up, 90% of the women had a negative cough stress test result and a negative 24-h pad test result. The subjective cure rate measured as the women s global impression of cure was 77%, the rate of improvement 20%, and only 3% thought that the treatment had failed. No late-onset adverse effects were found. The repeat TVT procedure was successful in 75% of the cases when women who were cured and women who were significantly improved were included. The reasons for failure of the first operation could be separated into four different groups: tape material-related, operation technique-related, concomitant illness-related and a group with no identifiable reason. There were no intra-operative complications during the repeat operation. In the randomized trial comparing the TVT with the TVT-O procedure a cough stress test results were negative in 94.6% and 89.5% of the women in the two groups, respectively, after a 3-year follow-up period. There were no statistical differences in the cure rate or the rate of complications be-tween the two procedures. Symptoms of urgency were analyzed more closely and the main finding was that the prevalence of urgency symptoms decreased significantly after both mid-urethral sling procedures. The TVT operation was found to be an effective and safe procedure even after eleven years of follow-up. Long-term follow-up after a repeat TVT procedure revealed that the TVT procedure can well be considered after an unsuccessful mid-urethra tape procedure, because 75% of the patients showed significantly improvement of their incontinence. The TVT and TVT-O procedures showed no statistically significant differences in efficacy and rate of complications after three years of follow-up. In most cases these procedures alleviate preoperative symptoms of urgency and the risk of developing de novo urgency is low.

DNA damage recognition in the normal epithelium of human prostate and seminal vesicles

Prostate cancer is one of the most prevalent cancer types in men. The development of prostate tumors is known to require androgen exposure, and several pathways governing cell growth are deregulated in prostate tumorigenesis. Recent genetic studies have revealed that complex gene fusions and copy - number alterations are frequent in prostate cancer, a unique feature among solid tumors. These chromosomal aberrations are though to arise as a consequence of faulty repair of DNA double strand breaks (DSB). Most repair mechanisms have been studied in detail in cancer cell lines, but how DNA damage is detected and repaired in normal differentiated human cells has not been widely addressed. The events leading to the gene fusions in prostate cancer are under rigorous studies, as they not only shed light on the basic pathobiologic mechanisms but may also produce molecular targets for prostate cancer treatment and prevention. Prostate and seminal vesicles are part of the male reproductive system. They share similar structure and function but differ dramatically in their cancer incidence. Approximately fifty primary seminal vesicle carcinomas have been reported worldwide. Surprisingly, only little is known on why seminal vesicles are resistant to neoplastic changes. As both tissues are androgen dependent, it is a mystery that androgen signaling would only lead to tumors in prostate tissue. In this work, we set up novel ex vivo human tissue culture models of prostate and seminal vesicles, and used them to study how DNA damage is recognized in normal epithelium. One of the major DNA - damage inducible pathways, mediated by the ATM kinase, was robustly activated in all main cell types of both tissues. Interestingly, we discovered that secretory epithelial cells had less histone variant H2A.X and after DNA damage lower levels of H2AX were phosphorylated on serine 139 (γH2AX) than in basal or stromal cells. γH2AX has been considered essential for efficient DSB repair, but as there were no significant differences in the γH2AX levels between the two tissues, it seems more likely that the role of γH2AX is less important in postmitotic cells. We also gained insight into the regulation of p53, an important transcription factor that protects genomic integrity via multiple mechanisms, in human tissues. DSBs did not lead to a pronounced activation of p53, but treatments causing transcriptional stress, on the other hand, were able to launch a notable p53 response in both tissue types. In general, ex vivo culturing of human tissues provided unique means to study differentiated cells in their relevant tissue context, and is suited for testing novel therapeutic drugs before clinical trials. In order to study how prostate and seminal vesicle epithelial cells are able to activate DNA damage induced cell cycle checkpoints, we used primary cultures of prostate and seminal vesicle epithelial cells. To our knowledge, we are the first to report isolation of human primary seminal vesicle cells. Surprisingly, human prostate epithelial cells did not activate cell cycle checkpoints after DSBs in part due to low levels of Wee1A, a kinase regulating CDK activity, while primary seminal vesicle epithelial cells possessed proficient cell cycle checkpoints and expressed high levels of Wee1A. Similarly, seminal vesicle cells showed a distinct activation of the p53 - pathway after DSBs that did not occur in prostate epithelial cells. This indicates that p53 protein function is under different control mechanisms in the two cell types, which together with proficient cell cycle checkpoints may be crucial in protecting seminal vesicles from endogenous and exogenous DNA damaging factors and, as a consequence, from carcinogenesis. These data indicate that two very similar organs of male reproductive system do not respond to DNA damage similarly. The differentiated, non - replicating cells of both tissues were able to recognize DSBs, but under proliferation human prostate epithelial cells had deficient activation of the DNA damage response. This suggests that prostate epithelium is most vulnerable to accumulating genomic aberrations under conditions where it needs to proliferate, for example after inflammatory cellular damage.

Sensitivity of wetland methane emissions to model assumptions: application and model testing against site observations

Abstract. Methane emissions from natural wetlands and rice paddies constitute a large proportion of atmospheric methane, but the magnitude and year-to-year variation of these methane sources is still unpredictable. Here we describe and evaluate the integration of a methane biogeochemical model (CLM4Me; Riley et al., 2011) into the Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4CN) in order to better explain spatial and temporal variations in methane emissions. We test new functions for soil pH and redox potential that impact microbial methane production in soils. We also constrain aerenchyma in plants in always-inundated areas in order to better represent wetland vegetation. Satellite inundated fraction is explicitly prescribed in the model because there are large differences between simulated fractional inundation and satellite observations. A rice paddy module is also incorporated into the model, where the fraction of land used for rice production is explicitly prescribed. The model is evaluated at the site level with vegetation cover and water table prescribed from measurements. Explicit site level evaluations of simulated methane emissions are quite different than evaluating the grid cell averaged emissions against available measurements. Using a baseline set of parameter values, our model-estimated average global wetland emissions for the period 1993–2004 were 256 Tg CH4 yr−1, and rice paddy emissions in the year 2000 were 42 Tg CH4 yr−1. Tropical wetlands contributed 201 Tg CH4 yr−1, or 78 % of the global wetland flux. Northern latitude (>50 N) systems contributed 12 Tg CH4 yr−1. We expect this latter number may be an underestimate due to the low high-latitude inundated area captured by satellites and unrealistically low high-latitude productivity and soil carbon predicted by CLM4. Sensitivity analysis showed a large range (150–346 Tg CH4 yr−1) in predicted global methane emissions. The large range was sensitive to: (1) the amount of methane transported through aerenchyma, (2) soil pH (± 100 Tg CH4 yr−1), and (3) redox inhibition (± 45 Tg CH4 yr−1).