Reduced visual function and its association with physical functioning in the Finnish adult population : Prevalence, causes, and need for eye care services

The purpose of this study was to estimate the prevalence and distribution of reduced visual acuity, major chronic eye diseases, and subsequent need for eye care services in the Finnish adult population comprising persons aged 30 years and older. In addition, we analyzed the effect of decreased vision on functioning and need for assistance using the World Health Organization’s (WHO) International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health (ICF) as a framework. The study was based on the Health 2000 health examination survey, a nationally representative population-based comprehensive survey of health and functional capacity carried out in 2000 to 2001 in Finland. The study sample representing the Finnish population aged 30 years and older was drawn by a two-stage stratified cluster sampling. The Health 2000 survey included a home interview and a comprehensive health examination conducted at a nearby screening center. If the invited participants did not attend, an abridged examination was conducted at home or in an institution. Based on our finding in participants, the great majority (96%) of Finnish adults had at least moderate visual acuity (VA ≥ 0.5) with current refraction correction, if any. However, in the age group 75–84 years the prevalence decreased to 81%, and after 85 years to 46%. In the population aged 30 years and older, the prevalence of habitual visual impairment (VA ≤ 0.25) was 1.6%, and 0.5% were blind (VA < 0.1). The prevalence of visual impairment increased significantly with age (p < 0.001), and after the age of 65 years the increase was sharp. Visual impairment was equally common for both sexes (OR 1.20, 95% CI 0.82 – 1.74). Based on self-reported and/or register-based data, the estimated total prevalences of cataract, glaucoma, age-related maculopathy (ARM), and diabetic retinopathy (DR) in the study population were 10%, 5%, 4%, and 1%, respectively. The prevalence of all of these chronic eye diseases increased with age (p < 0.001). Cataract and glaucoma were more common in women than in men (OR 1.55, 95% CI 1.26 – 1.91 and OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.24 – 1.98, respectively). The most prevalent eye diseases in people with visual impairment (VA ≤ 0.25) were ARM (37%), unoperated cataract (27%), glaucoma (22%), and DR (7%). One-half (58%) of visually impaired people had had a vision examination during the past five years, and 79% had received some vision rehabilitation services, mainly in the form of spectacles (70%). Only one-third (31%) had received formal low vision rehabilitation (i.e., fitting of low vision aids, receiving patient education, training for orientation and mobility, training for activities of daily living (ADL), or consultation with a social worker). People with low vision (VA 0.1 – 0.25) were less likely to have received formal low vision rehabilitation, magnifying glasses, or other low vision aids than blind people (VA < 0.1). Furthermore, low cognitive capacity and living in an institution were associated with limited use of vision rehabilitation services. Of the visually impaired living in the community, 71% reported a need for assistance and 24% had an unmet need for assistance in everyday activities. Prevalence of ADL, instrumental activities of daily living (IADL), and mobility increased with decreasing VA (p < 0.001). Visually impaired persons (VA ≤ 0.25) were four times more likely to have ADL disabilities than those with good VA (VA ≥ 0.8) after adjustment for sociodemographic and behavioral factors and chronic conditions (OR 4.36, 95% CI 2.44 – 7.78). Limitations in IADL and measured mobility were five times as likely (OR 4.82, 95% CI 2.38 – 9.76 and OR 5.37, 95% CI 2.44 – 7.78, respectively) and self-reported mobility limitations were three times as likely (OR 3.07, 95% CI 1.67 – 9.63) as in persons with good VA. The high prevalence of age-related eye diseases and subsequent visual impairment in the fastest growing segment of the population will result in a substantial increase in the demand for eye care services in the future. Many of the visually impaired, especially older persons with decreased cognitive capacity or living in an institution, have not had a recent vision examination and lack adequate low vision rehabilitation. This highlights the need for regular evaluation of visual function in the elderly and an active dissemination of information about rehabilitation services. Decreased VA is strongly associated with functional limitations, and even a slight decrease in VA was found to be associated with limited functioning. Thus, continuous efforts are needed to identify and treat eye diseases to maintain patients’ quality of life and to alleviate the social and economic burden of serious eye diseases.

Conjunctival Melanoma in Finland 1967-2000: a population-based study

Eighty-five new cases of conjunctival melanoma (CM) were diagnosed in Finland between 1967 and 2000. The annual crude incidence of CM was 0.51 per million inhabitants. The average age-adjusted incidence of 0.54 doubled during the study period, analogous to the increase in the incidence of cutaneous malignant melanoma during this period, suggesting a possible role for ultraviolet radiation in its pathogenesis. Nonlimbal tumors were more likely than limbal ones to recur and they were associated with decreased survival. Increasing tumor thickness and recurrence of the primary tumor were other clinical factors related to death from CM. The histopathologic specimens of 85 patients with CM melanoma were studied for cell type, mitotic count, tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes and macrophages, mean vascular density, extravascular matrix loops and networks, and mean diameter of the ten largest nucleoli (MLN). The absence of epithelioid cells, increasing mitotic count and small MLN were associated with shorter time to recurrence according to the Cox univariate regression. None of the histopathologic variables was associated with mortality from CM. Four (5%) patients had a CM limited to the cornea without evidence of a tumor other than primary acquired melanosis of the conjunctiva. Because there are no melanocytes in the cornea, the origin of these melanomas most likely is the limbal conjunctiva. All four corneally displaced CM were limited to the epithelium, and none of the patients developed metastases. An anatomic sub-classification based on my patients and world literature was developed for corneally displaced CM. In 20 patients the metastatic pattern could be determined. Ten patients had initial systemic metastases detected, nine had initial regional metastases, and in one case the two types were detected simultaneously. The patients most likely to develop either type of initial metastases were those with nonlimbal conjunctival melanoma, those with a primary tumor more than 2 mm thick, and those with a recurrent conjunctival melanoma. Approximately two thirds of the patients had limbal CM, a location associated with good prognosis. One third, however, had a primary CM originating outside the limbus. In these patients the chance of developing local recurrences as well as systemic metastases was significantly higher than in patients with limbal CM. Each recurrence accompanies an increased risk of developing metastases, and recurrences contribute to death along with increasing tumor thickness and nonlimbal tumor location. In my data, an equal number of patients with initial locoregional and systemic metastasis existed. Patients with limbal primary tumors less than 2 mm in thickness rarely experienced metastases, unless the tumor recurred. Consequently, the patients most likely to benefit from sentinel lymph node biopsy are those who have nonlimbal tumors, CM that are over 2 mm thick, or recurrent CM. The histopathology of CM differs from that of uveal melanoma. Microvascular factors did not prove to be of prognostic importance, possibly due to the fact that CM at least as often disseminates first to the regional lymph nodes, unlike uveal melanoma that almost always disseminates hematogenously.

Assessment of Risk for Type 1 Diabetes in Children of Affected Families and in the General Population : Role of Immunological and Metabolic Markers

Background and aims. Type 1 diabetes (T1D), an autoimmune disease in which the insulin producing beta cells are gradually destroyed, is preceded by a prodromal phase characterized by appearance of diabetes-associated autoantibodies in circulation. Both the timing of the appearance of autoantibodies and their quality have been used in the prediction of T1D among first-degree relatives of diabetic patients (FDRs). So far, no general strategies for identifying individuals at increased disease risk in the general population have been established, although the majority of new cases originate in this population. The current work aimed at assessing the predictive role of diabetes-associated immunologic and metabolic risk factors in the general population, and comparing these factors with data obtained from studies on FDRs. Subjects and methods. Study subjects in the current work were subcohorts of participants of the Childhood Diabetes in Finland Study (DiMe; n=755), the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study (LASERI; n=3475), and the Finnish Type 1 Diabetes Prediction and Prevention Study (DIPP) Study subjects (n=7410). These children were observed for signs of beta-cell autoimmunity and progression to T1D, and the results obtained were compared between the FDRs and the general population cohorts. --- Results and conclusions. By combining HLA and autoantibody screening, T1D risks similar to those reported for autoantibody-positive FDRs are observed in the pediatric general population. Progression rate to T1D is high in genetically susceptible children with persistent multipositivity. Measurement of IAA affinity failed in stratifying the risk assessment in young IAA-positive children with HLA-conferred disease susceptibility, among whom affinity of IAA did not increase during the prediabetic period. Young age at seroconversion, increased weight-for-height, decreased early insulin response, and increased IAA and IA-2A levels predict T1D in young children with genetic disease susceptibility and signs of advanced beta-cell autoimmunity. Since the incidence of T1D continues to increase, efforts aimed at preventing T1D are important, and reliable disease prediction is needed both for intervention trials and for effective and safe preventive therapies in the future. Our observations confirmed that combined HLA-based screening and regular autoantibody measurements reveal similar disease risks in pediatric general population as those seen in prediabetic FDRs, and that risk assessment can be stratified further by studying glucose metabolism of prediabetic subjects. As these screening efforts are feasible in practice, the knowledge now obtained can be exploited while designing intervention trials aimed at secondary prevention of T1D.

Irritable bowel syndrome in the general population : epidemiology, comorbidity and societal costs

Background: Irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) is a common functional gastrointestinal (GI) disorder characterised by abdominal pain and abnormal bowel function. It is associated with a high rate of healthcare consumption and significant health care costs. The prevalence and economic burden of IBS in Finland has not been studied before. The aims of this study were to assess the prevalence of IBS according to various diagnostic criteria and to study the rates of psychiatric and somatic comorbidity in IBS. In addition, health care consumption and societal costs of IBS were to be evaluated. Methods: The study was a two-phase postal survey. Questionnaire I identifying IBS by Manning 2 (at least two of the six Manning symptoms), Manning 3 (at least three Manning symptoms), Rome I, and Rome II criteria, was mailed to a random sample of 5 000 working age subjects. It also covered extra-GI symptoms such as headache, back pain, and depression. Questionnaire II, covering rates of physician visits, and use of GI medication, was sent to subjects fulfilling Manning 2 or Rome II IBS criteria in Questionnaire I. Results: The response rate was 73% and 86% for questionnaires I and II. The prevalence of IBS was 15.9%, 9.6%, 5.6%, and 5.1% according to Manning 2, Manning 3, Rome I, and Rome II criteria. Of those meeting Rome II criteria, 97% also met Manning 2 criteria. Presence of severe abdominal pain was more often reported by subjects meeting either of the Rome criteria than those meeting either of the Manning criteria. Presence of depression, anxiety, and several somatic symptoms was more common among subjects meeting any IBS criterion than by controls. Of subjects with depressive symptoms, 11.6% met Rome II IBS criteria compared to 3.7% of those with no depressiveness. Subjects meeting any IBS criteria made more physician visits than controls. Intensity of GI symptoms and presence of dyspeptic symptoms were the strongest predictors of GI consultations. Presence of dyspeptic symptoms and a history of abdominal pain in childhood also predicted non-GI visits. Annual GI related individual costs were higher in the Rome II group (497 ) than in the Manning 2 group (295 ). Direct expenses of GI symptoms and non GI physician visits ranged between 98M for Rome II and 230M for Manning 2 criteria. Conclusions: The prevalence of IBS varies substantially depending on the criteria applied. Rome II criteria are more restrictive than Manning 2, and they identify an IBS population with more severe GI symptoms, more frequent health care use, and higher individual health care costs. Subjects with IBS demonstrate high rates of psychiatric and somatic comorbidity regardless of health care seeking status. Perceived symptom severity rather than psychiatric comorbidity predicts health care seeking for GI symptoms. IBS incurs considerable medical costs. The direct GI and non-GI costs are equivalent to up to 5% of outpatient health care and medicine costs in Finland. A more integral approach to IBS by physicians, accounting also for comorbid conditions, may produce a more favourable course in IBS patients and reduce health care expenditures.

Pharmacogenetics of SLCO1B1: Population genetics and effect on statins

Kohonneiden kolesterolipitoisuuksien alentamisessa käytettävien statiinien hyödyt sydän- ja verisuonisairauksien estossa on vahvasti osoitettu ja niiden käyttö on niin Suomessa kuin muuallakin maailmassa kasvanut voimakkaasti – Suomessa statiininkäyttäjiä on noin 600 000. Statiinilääkitys on pitkäaikaisessakin käytössä melko hyvin siedetty, mutta yleisimpinä haittavaikutuksina voi ilmetä lihasheikkoutta, -kipua ja -kramppeja, jotka voivat edetä jopa henkeä uhkaavaksi lihasvaurioksi. Lihashaittariski suurenee suhteessa statiiniannokseen ja plasman statiinipitoisuuksiin. Statiinien plasmapitoisuuksissa, tehossa ja haittavaikutusten ilmenemisessä on suuria potilaskohtaisia eroja. SLCO1B1-geenin koodaama OATP1B1-kuljetusproteiini kuljettaa monia elimistön omia aineita ja lääkeaineita verenkierrosta solukalvon läpi maksasoluun, mm. statiineja, joiden kolesterolia alentava vaikutus ja poistuminen elimistöstä tapahtuvat pääosin maksassa. Erään SLCO1B1-geenin nukleotidimuutoksen (c.521T>C) tiedetään heikentävän OATP1B1:n kuljetustehoa. Tässä väitöskirjatyössä selvitettiin SLCO1B1-geenin perinnöllistä muuntelua suomalaisilla ja eri väestöissä maailmanlaajuisesti. Lisäksi selvitettiin SLCO1B1:n muunnosten vaikutusta eri statiinien pitoisuuksiin (farmakokinetiikka) ja vaikutuksiin (farmakodynamiikka) sekä kolesteroliaineenvaihduntaan. Näihin tutkimuksiin valittiin SLCO1B1-genotyypin perusteella terveitä vapaaehtoisia koehenkilöitä, joille annettiin eri päivinä kerta-annos kutakin tutkittavaa statiinia: fluvastatiinia, pravastatiinia, simvastatiinia, rosuvastatiinia ja atorvastatiinia. Verinäytteistä määritettiin plasman statiinien ja niiden aineenvaihduntatuotteiden sekä kolesterolin ja sen muodostumista ja imeytymistä kuvaavien merkkiaineiden pitoisuuksia. Toiminnallisesti merkittävien SLCO1B1-geenimuunnosten esiintyvyydessä todettiin suuria eroja eri väestöjen välillä. Suomalaisilla SLCO1B1 c.521TC-genotyypin (geenimuunnos toisessa vastinkromosomissa) esiintyvyys oli noin 32 % ja SLCO1B1 c.521CC-genotyypin (geenimuunnos molemmissa vastinkromosomeissa) esiintyvyys noin 4 %. Globaalisti geenimuunnosten esiintyvyys korreloi maapallon leveyspiirien kanssa siten, että matalaan transportteriaktiivisuuteen johtavat muunnokset olivat yleisimpiä pohjoisessa ja korkeaan aktiivisuuteen johtavat päiväntasaajan lähellä asuvilla väestöillä. SLCO1B1-genotyypillä oli merkittävä vaikutus statiinien plasmapitoisuksiin lukuun ottamatta fluvastatiinia. Simvastatiinihapon plasmapitoisuudet olivat keskimäärin 220 %, atorvastatiinin 140 %, pravastatiinin 90 % ja rosuvastatiinin 70 % suuremmat c.521CC-genotyypin omaavilla koehenkilöillä verrattuna normaalin c.521TT-genotyypin omaaviin. Genotyypillä ei ollut merkittävää vaikutusta minkään statiinin tehoon tässä kerta-annostutkimuksessa, mutta geenimuunnoksen kantajilla perustason kolesterolisynteesinopeus oli suurempi. Tulokset osoittavat, että SLCO1B1 c.521T>C geenimuunnos on varsin yleinen suomalaisilla ja muilla ei-afrikkalaisilla väestöillä. Tämä geenimuunnos voi altistaa erityisesti simvastatiinin, mutta myös atorvastatiinin, pravastatiinin ja rosuvastatiinin, aiheuttamille lihashaitoille suurentamalla niiden plasmapitoisuuksia. SLCO1B1:n geenimuunnoksen testaamista voidaan tulevaisuudessa käyttää apuna valittaessa sopivaa statiinilääkitystä ja -annosta potilaalle, ja näin parantaa sekä statiinihoidon turvallisuutta että tehoa.

Cyclosporine population pharmacokinetics in pediatric renal transplant recipients

Cyclosporine is an immunosuppressant drug with a narrow therapeutic index and large variability in pharmacokinetics. To improve cyclosporine dose individualization in children, we used population pharmacokinetic modeling to study the effects of developmental, clinical, and genetic factors on cyclosporine pharmacokinetics in altogether 176 subjects (age range: 0.36–20.2 years) before and up to 16 years after renal transplantation. Pre-transplantation test doses of cyclosporine were given intravenously (3 mg/kg) and orally (10 mg/kg), on separate occasions, followed by blood sampling for 24 hours (n=175). After transplantation, in a total of 137 patients, cyclosporine concentration was quantified at trough, two hours post-dose, or with dose-interval curves. One-hundred-four of the studied patients were genotyped for 17 putatively functionally significant sequence variations in the ABCB1, SLCO1B1, ABCC2, CYP3A4, CYP3A5, and NR1I2 genes. Pharmacokinetic modeling was performed with the nonlinear mixed effects modeling computer program, NONMEM. A 3-compartment population pharmacokinetic model with first order absorption without lag-time was used to describe the data. The most important covariate affecting systemic clearance and distribution volume was allometrically scaled body weight i.e. body weight**3/4 for clearance and absolute body weight for volume of distribution. The clearance adjusted by absolute body weight declined with age and pre-pubertal children (< 8 years) had an approximately 25% higher clearance/body weight (L/h/kg) than did older children. Adjustment of clearance for allometric body weight removed its relationship to age after the first year of life. This finding is consistent with a gradual reduction in relative liver size towards adult values, and a relatively constant CYP3A content in the liver from about 6–12 months of age to adulthood. The other significant covariates affecting cyclosporine clearance and volume of distribution were hematocrit, plasma cholesterol, and serum creatinine, explaining up to 20%–30% of inter-individual differences before transplantation. After transplantation, their predictive role was smaller, as the variations in hematocrit, plasma cholesterol, and serum creatinine were also smaller. Before transplantation, no clinical or demographic covariates were found to affect oral bioavailability, and no systematic age-related changes in oral bioavailability were observed. After transplantation, older children receiving cyclosporine twice daily as the gelatine capsule microemulsion formulation had an about 1.25–1.3 times higher bioavailability than did the younger children receiving the liquid microemulsion formulation thrice daily. Moreover, cyclosporine oral bioavailability increased over 1.5-fold in the first month after transplantation, returning thereafter gradually to its initial value in 1–1.5 years. The largest cyclosporine doses were administered in the first 3–6 months after transplantation, and thereafter the single doses of cyclosporine were often smaller than 3 mg/kg. Thus, the results suggest that cyclosporine displays dose-dependent, saturable pre-systemic metabolism even at low single doses, whereas complete saturation of CYP3A4 and MDR1 (P-glycoprotein) renders cyclosporine pharmacokinetics dose-linear at higher doses. No significant associations were found between genetic polymorphisms and cyclosporine pharmacokinetics before transplantation in the whole population for which genetic data was available (n=104). However, in children older than eight years (n=22), heterozygous and homozygous carriers of the ABCB1 c.2677T or c.1236T alleles had an about 1.3 times or 1.6 times higher oral bioavailability, respectively, than did non-carriers. After transplantation, none of the ABCB1 SNPs or any other SNPs were found to be associated with cyclosporine clearance or oral bioavailability in the whole population, in the patients older than eight years, or in the patients younger than eight years. In the whole population, in those patients carrying the NR1I2 g.-25385C–g.-24381A–g.-205_-200GAGAAG–g.7635G–g.8055C haplotype, however, the bioavailability of cyclosporine was about one tenth lower, per allele, than in non-carriers. This effect was significant also in a subgroup of patients older than eight years. Furthermore, in patients carrying the NR1I2 g.-25385C–g.-24381A–g.-205_-200GAGAAG–g.7635G–g.8055T haplotype, the bioavailability was almost one fifth higher, per allele, than in non-carriers. It may be possible to improve individualization of cyclosporine dosing in children by accounting for the effects of developmental factors (body weight, liver size), time after transplantation, and cyclosporine dosing frequency/formulation. Further studies are required on the predictive value of genotyping for individualization of cyclosporine dosing in children.

Transposable elements in a marginal plant population

Background
How new forms arise in nature has engaged evolutionary biologists since Darwin's seminal treatise on the origin of species. Transposable elements (TEs) may be among the most important internal sources for intraspecific variability. Thus, we aimed to explore the temporal dynamics of several TEs in individual genotypes from a small, marginal population of Aegilops speltoides. A diploid cross-pollinated grass species, it is a wild relative of the various wheat species known for their large genome sizes contributed by an extraordinary number of TEs, particularly long terminal repeat (LTR) retrotransposons. The population is characterized by high heteromorphy and possesses a wide spectrum of chromosomal abnormalities including supernumerary chromosomes, heterozygosity for translocations, and variability in the chromosomal position or number of 45S and 5S ribosomal DNA (rDNA) sites. We propose that variability on the morphological and chromosomal levels may be linked to variability at the molecular level and particularly in TE proliferation.

Results
Significant temporal fluctuation in the copy number of TEs was detected when processes that take place in small, marginal populations were simulated. It is known that under critical external conditions, outcrossing plants very often transit to self-pollination. Thus, three morphologically different genotypes with chromosomal aberrations were taken from a wild population of Ae. speltoides, and the dynamics of the TE complex traced through three rounds of selfing. It was discovered that: (i) various families of TEs vary tremendously in copy number between individuals from the same population and the selfed progenies; (ii) the fluctuations in copy number are TE-family specific; (iii) there is a great difference in TE copy number expansion or contraction between gametophytes and sporophytes; and (iv) a small percentage of TEs that increase in copy number can actually insert at novel locations and could serve as a bona fide mutagen.

Conclusions
We hypothesize that TE dynamics could promote or intensify morphological and karyotypical changes, some of which may be potentially important for the process of microevolution, and allow species with plastic genomes to survive as new forms or even species in times of rapid climatic change.

Accumulation of point mutations and reassortment of genomic RNA segments are involved in the microevolution of Puumala hantavirus in a bank vole (Myodes glareolus) population

"The genetic diversity of Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) was studied in a local population of its natural host, the bank vole (Myodes glareolus). The trapping area (2.5x2.5 km) at Konnevesi, Central Finland, included 14 trapping sites, at least 500 m apart; altogether, 147 voles were captured during May and October 2005. Partial sequences of the S, M and L viral genome segments were recovered from 40 animals. Seven, 12 and 17 variants were detected for the S, M and L sequences, respectively; these represent new wild-type PUUV strains that belong to the Finnish genetic lineage. The genetic diversity of PUUV strains from Konnevesi was 0.2-4.9% for the S segment, 0.2-4.8% for the M segment and 0.2-9.7% for the L segment. Most nucleotide substitutions were synonymous and most deduced amino acid substitutions were conservative, probably due to strong stabilizing selection operating at the protein level. Based on both sequence markers and phylogenetic clustering, the S, M and L sequences could be assigned to two groups, 'A' and 'B'. Notably, not all bank voles carried S, M and L sequences belonging to the same group, i.e. SAMALA or SBMBLB.. A substantial proportion (8/40, 20%) of the newly characterized PUUV strains possessed reassortant genomes such as SBMALA, SAMBLB or SBMALB. These results suggest that at least some of the PUUV reassortants are viable and can survive in the presence of their parental strains."

Analysis of Puumala hantavirus in a bank vole population in northern Finland: evidence for co-circulation of two genetic lineages and frequent reassortment between strains

"In this study, for the first time, two distinct genetic lineages of Puumala virus (PUUV) were found within a small sampling area and within a single host genetic lineage (Ural mtDNA) at Pallasjarvi, northern Finland. Lung tissue samples of 171 bank voles (Myodes glareolus) trapped in September 1998 were screened for the presence of PUUV nucleocapsid antigen and 25 were found to be positive. Partial sequences of the PUUV small (S), medium (M) and large (L) genome segments were recovered from these samples using RT-PCR. Phylogenetic analysis revealed two genetic groups of PUUV sequences that belonged to the Finnish and north Scandinavian lineages. This presented a unique opportunity to study inter-lineage reassortment in PUUV; indeed, 32% of the studied bank voles appeared to carry reassortant virus genomes. Thus, the frequency of inter-lineage reassortment in PUUV was comparable to that of intra-lineage reassortment observed previously (Razzauti, M., Plyusnina, A., Henttonen, H. & Plyusnin, A. (2008). J Gen Virol 89, 1649-1660). Of six possible reassortant S/M/L combinations, only two were found at Pallasjarvi and, notably, in all reassortants, both S and L segments originated from the same genetic lineage, suggesting a non-random pattern for the reassortment. These findings are discussed in connection to PUUV evolution in Fermoscandia."

Population projection for Namibia 2011-2020 - With an estimation of the impact of HIV/AIDS

This study presents a population projection for Namibia for years 2011–2020. In many countries of sub-Saharan Africa, including Namibia, the population growth is still continuing even though the fertility rates have declined. However, many of these countries suffer from a large HIV epidemic that is slowing down the population growth. In Namibia, the epidemic has been severe. Therefore, it is important to assess the effect of HIV/AIDS on the population of Namibia in the future. Demographic research on Namibia has not been very extensive, and data on population is not widely available. According to the studies made, fertility has been shown to be generally declining and mortality has been significantly increasing due to AIDS. Previous population projections predict population growth for Namibia in the near future, yet HIV/AIDS is affecting the future population developments. For the projection constructed in this study, data on population is taken from the two most recent censuses, from 1991 and 2001. Data on HIV is available from HIV Sentinel Surveys 1992–2008, which test pregnant women for HIV in antenatal clinics. Additional data are collected from different sources and recent studies. The projection is made with software (EPP and Spectrum) specially designed for developing countries with scarce data. The projection includes two main scenarios which have different assumptions concerning the development of the HIV epidemic. In addition, two hypothetical scenarios are made: the first considering the case where HIV epidemic would never have existed and the second considering the case where HIV treatment would never have existed. The results indicate population growth for Namibia. Population in the 2001 census was 1.83 million and is projected to result in 2.38/2.39 million in 2020 in the first two scenarios. Without HIV, population would be 2.61 million and without treatment 2.30 million in 2020. Urban population is growing faster than rural. Even though AIDS is increasing mortality, the past high fertility rates still keep young adult age groups quite large. The HIV epidemic shows to be slowing down, but it is still increasing the mortality of the working-aged population. The initiation of HIV treatment in 2004 in the public sector seems to have had an effect on many projected indicators, diminishing the impact of HIV on the population. For example, the rise of mortality is slowing down.

Population genetics of the invasive plant species Impatiens glandulifera in Southern Finland

Biological invasions affect biodiversity worldwide, and, consequently, the invaded ecosystems may suffer from significant losses in economic and cultural values. Impatiens glandulifera Royle (Balsaminaceae) is an invasive annual herb, native to the western Himalayas and introduced into Europe in the 19th century as a garden ornamental plant. The massive invasion of I. glandulifera is due to its high reproductive output, rapid growth and its ability to outcompete native species. In Finland, the first observations regarding the presence of I. glandulifera date from the year 1947, and today it is considered a serious problem in riparian habitats. The aim of this master’s thesis research is to reveal the population genetic structure of I. glandulifera in Finland and to find out whether there have been one or multiple invasions in Finland. The study focuses on investigating the origin of I. glandulifera in Southern Finland, by comparing plant samples from the Helsinki region with those from its native region and other regions of invasion. Samples from four populations in Helsinki and from the United Kingdom, Canada, India and Pakistan were collected and genotyped using 11 microsatellite markers. The genetic analyses were evaluated using the programs Arlequin and Structure. The results of the genetic analyses suggested that I. glandulifera has been introduced to Finland more than once. Multiple introductions are supported by the higher level of genetic diversity detected within and among Finnish populations than would be expected for a single introduction. Results of the Bayesian Structure analysis divided the four Finnish populations into four clusters. This geographical structure was further supported by pairwise Fst values among populations. The causes and potential consequences of such multiple introductions of I. glandulifera in Finland and further perspectives are discussed.