Maximum Loss Calculation using Scenario Analysis, Heavy Tails and Implied Volatility Patterns

The objective of this paper is to improve option risk monitoring by examining the information content of implied volatility and by introducing the calculation of a single-sum expected risk exposure similar to the Value-at-Risk. The figure is calculated in two steps. First, there is a need to estimate the value of a portfolio of options for a number of different market scenarios, while the second step is to summarize the information content of the estimated scenarios into a single-sum risk measure. This involves the use of probability theory and return distributions, which confronts the user with the problems of non-normality in the return distribution of the underlying asset. Here the hyperbolic distribution is used to describe one alternative for dealing with heavy tails. Results indicate that the information content of implied volatility is useful when predicting future large returns in the underlying asset. Further, the hyperbolic distribution provides a good fit to historical returns enabling a more accurate definition of statistical intervals and extreme events.

Late Svecofennian leucogranites of southern Finland : Chronicles of an orogenic collapse

Leucogranite magmatism occurred in southern Finland during the later stages of the Paleoproterozoic Svecofennian orogeny. The leucogranites are considered to have formed from pre-existing crustal rocks that have undergone anatexis in the extensional stage of the orogeny, following continental collision and resultant crustal thickening. The leucogranites have been studied in the field using petrographic and mineralogical methods, elemental and isotope geochemistry on whole rocks and minerals, and U-Pb geochronology. On outcrop scale, these granites typically form heterogeneous, layered, sheet-like bodies that migmatize their country rocks. All of the leucogranites are peraluminous and rich in SiO2, but otherwise display significant geochemical variation. Their Nd isotope composition ranges from fairly juvenile to very unradiogenic, and the Hf isotope composition of their zircon shows a varying degree of mixing in the source, the zircon populations becoming more heterogeneous and generally less radiogenic towards the east. The leucogranites have been dated using U-Pb isotopic analyses, utilizing thermal ionization mass spectrometry, secondary ion mass spectrometry, and laser ablation multicollector ICP mass spectrometry on zircon and monazite. The results show that the granites were emplaced between 1.85 Ga and 1.79 Ga, which is a considerably longer period than has traditionally been perceived for these rocks. The rocks tend to become younger towards the east. Single crystal data also display a wide array of inherited zircons, especially in the eastern part of the leucogranite belt. The most common inherited age groups are ~2.8 2.5 Ga, ~2.1 2.1 Ga, and ~1.9 Ga. Magmatic zircon and monazite usually record similar ages for any one sample.Thermobarometric calculations indicate that the leucogranites in the Veikkola area of southcentral Finland were formed from relatively low-temperature melts, and emplaced at 17-25 km depth, i.e. at mid-crustal level. It is likely that these conditions apply to the Svecofennian leucogranites in general. Large differences in the Hf and Nd isotope compositions, emplacement ages, and distributions of inherited zircon ages show that these granites were formed from different types of source rocks, which probably included both sedimentary and igneous rocks.

Excimer laser refractive surgery : corneal wound healing and clinical results

Although the first procedure in a seeing human eye using excimer laser was reported in 1988 (McDonald et al. 1989, O'Connor et al. 2006) just three studies (Kymionis et al. 2007, O'Connor et al. 2006, Rajan et al. 2004) with a follow-up over ten years had been published when this thesis was started. The present thesis aims to investigate 1) the long-term outcomes of excimer laser refractive surgery performed for myopia and/or astigmatism by photorefractive keratectomy (PRK) and laser-in situ- keratomileusis (LASIK), 2) the possible differences in postoperative outcomes and complications when moderate-to-high astigmatism is treated with PRK or LASIK, 3) the presence of irregular astigmatism that depend exclusively on the corneal epithelium, and 4) the role of corneal nerve recovery in corneal wound healing in PRK enhancement. Our results revealed that in long-term the number of eyes that achieved uncorrected visual acuity (UCVA)≤0.0 and ≤0.5 (logMAR) was higher after PRK than after LASIK. Postoperative stability was slightly better after PRK than after LASIK. In LASIK treated eyes the incidence of myopic regression was more pronounced when the intended correction was over >6.0 D and in patients aged <30 years.Yet the intended corrections in our study were higher for LASIK than for PRK eyes. No differences were found in percentages of eyes with best corrected visual acuity (BCVA) or loss of two or more lines of visual acuity between PRK and LASIK in the long-term. The postoperative long-term outcomes of PRK with two different delivery systems broad beam and scanning laser were compared and revealed no differences. Postoperative outcomes of moderate-to-high astigmatism yielded better results in terms of UCVA and less compromise or loss of two more lines of BCVA after LASIK that after PRK.Similar stability for both procedures was revealed. Vector analysis showed that LASIK outcomes tended to be more accurate than PRK outcomes, yet no statistically differences were found. Irregular astigmatism secondary to recurrent corneal erosion due to map-dot-fingerprint was successfully treated with phototherapeutic keratectomy (PTK). Preoperative videokeratographies (VK) showed irregular astigmatism. However, postoperatively, all eyes showed a regular pattern. No correlation was found between pre- and postoperative VK patterns. Postoperative outcomes of late PRK in eyes originally subjected to LASIK showed that all (7/7) eyes achieved UCVA ≤0.5 at last follow-up (range 3 — 11 months), and no eye lost lines of BCVA. Postoperatively all eyes developed and initial mild haze (0.5 — 1) into the first month. Yet, at last follow-up 5/7 eyes showed a haze of 0.5 and this was no longer evident in 2/7 eyes. Based on these results, we demonstrated that the long-term outcomes after PRK and LASIK were safe and efficient, with similar stability for both procedures. The PRK outcomes were similar when treated by broad-beam or scanning slit laser. LASIK was better than PRK to correct moderate-to-high astigmatism, yet both procedures showed a tendency of undercorrection. Irregular astigmatism was proven to be able to depend exclusively from the corneal epithelium. If this kind of astigmatism is present in the cornea and a customized PRK/LASIK correction is done based on wavefront measurements an irregular astigmatism may be produced rather than treated. Corneal sensory nerve recovery should have an important role in the modulation of the corneal wound healing and post-operative anterior stromal scarring. PRK enhancement may be an option in eyes with previous LASIK after a sufficient time interval that in at least 2 years.

Evil Gods and Reckless Saviours : Adaptation and Appropriation in Late Twentieth Century Jesus-Novels

Late twentieth century Jesus-novels search after a completely new picture of Jesus. Novels written for instance by Norman Mailer, José Saramago, Michèle Roberts, Marianne Fredriksson, and Ki Longfellow provide an inversive revision of the canonic Gospels. They read the New Testament in terms of the present age. In their adaptation the story turns often into a critique of the whole Christian history. The investigated contrast-novels end up with an appropriation that is based on prototypical rewriting. They aim at the rehabilitation of Judas, and some of them make Mary Magdalane the key figure of Christianity. Saramago describes God as a blood thirsty tyrant, and Mailer makes God combat with the Devil in a manichean sense as with an equal. Such ideas are familiar both from poststructuralist philosophy and post-metaphysical death-of-God theology. The main result of the intertextual analysis is that these scholars have adopted Nietzschean ideas in their writing. Quite unlike earlier Jesus-novels, these more recent novels present a revision that produces discontinuity with the original source text, the New Testament. The intertextual strategy is based on contradiction. The reader wittnesses contesting and challenging, the authors attack Biblical beliefs and attempt to dissolve Christian doctrines. An attack on Biblical slave morality and violent concept of God deprives Jesus of his Jewish Messianic identity, makes Old Testament law a contradiction of life, calls sacrificial soteriology a violent pattern supporting oppression, and presents God as a cruel monster who enslaves people under his commandments and wishes their death. The new Jesus-figure contests Mosaic Law, despises orthodox Judaism, abandons Jewish customs and even questions Old Testament monotheism. In result, the novels intentionally transfer Jesus out of Judaism. Furthermore, Jewish faith appears in a negative light. Such an intertextual move is not open anti-Semitism but it cannot avoid attacking Jewish worship. Why? One reason that explains these attitudes is that Western culture still carries anti-Judaic attitudes beneath the surface covered with sentiments of equality and tolerance. Despite the evident post-holocaust consciousness present in the novels, they actually adopt an arrogant and ironical refutation of Jewish beliefs and Old Testament faith. In these novels, Jesus is made a complete opposite and antithesis to Judaism. Key words: Jesus-novel, intertextuality, adaptation, slave morality, Nietzsche, theodicy, patriarchy.

Late-industrial sawmill customers.

The methods of secondary wood processing are assumed to evolve over time and to affect the requirements set for the wood material and its suppliers. The study aimed at analysing the industrial operating modes applied by joinery and furniture manufacturers as sawnwood users. Industrial operating mode was defined as a pattern of important decisions and actions taken by a company which describes the company's level of adjustment in the late-industrial transition. A non-probabilistic sample of 127 companies was interviewed, including companies from Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, and Finland. Fifty-two of the firms were furniture manufacturers and the other 75 were producing windows and doors. Variables related to business philosophy, production operations, and supplier choice criteria were measured and used as a basis for a customer typology; variables related to wood usage and perceived sawmill performance were measured to be used to profile the customer types. Factor analysis was used to determine the latent dimensions of industrial operating mode. Canonical correlations analysis was applied in developing the final base for classifying the observations. Non-hierarchical cluster analysis was employed to build a five-group typology of secondary wood processing firms; these ranged from traditional mass producers to late-industrial flexible manufacturers. There is a clear connection between the amount of late-industrial elements in a company and the share of special and customised sawnwood it uses. Those joinery or furniture manufacturers that are more late-industrial also are likely to use more component-type wood material and to appreciate customer-oriented technical precision. The results show that the change is towards the use of late-industrial sawnwood materials and late-industrial supplier relationships.

Late Pleistocene and Holocene environmental evolution of the Murchisonfjorden area, Nordaustlandet, Svalbard

The purpose of this study was to establish the palaeoenvironmental conditions during the late Quaternary in Murchisonfjorden, Nordaustlandet, based on foraminiferal assemblage compositions, and to determine the onset and termination of the Weichselian glaciations. The foraminiferal assemblage compositions were studied in marine sediments from three different archives, from sections next to the present shoreline in the Bay of Isvika, from a core in the Bay of Isvika and from a core from Lake Einstaken. OSL and AMS 14C age determinations were performed on samples from the three archives, and the results show deposition of marine sediments during ice-free periods of the Early Weichselian, the Middle Weichselian and the Late Weichselian, as well as during the Holocene in the investigated area. Marine sediments from the Early and Middle Weichselian were sampled from isostatically uplifted sections along the present shoreline.Sediments from the transition from the Late Weichselian to early Holocene time intervals were found in the bottom of the core from Lake Einstaken. Holocene sediments were investigated in the sections and in the core from the Bay of Isvika. The marine sediments from the sections are comprised of five benthic foraminiferal assemblages. The Early Weichselian is represented by two foraminiferal assemblages, the Middle Weichselian, the early and the late Holocene each by one. All five foraminiferal assemblages were deposited in glacier-distal shallow-water environments, which had a connection to the open ocean. Changes in the composition of the assemblages can be ascribed to differences in the bottom-water currents and changes in the salinity. The Middle Weichselian assemblage is of special importance, because it is the first foraminiferal assemblage to be described from this time interval from Svalbard. Four benthic foraminiferal assemblages were deposited shortly before the marine to lacustrine transition at the boundary between the Late Weichselian and Holocene in Lake Einstaken. The foraminiferal assemblages show a change from a high-arctic, normal marine shallow-water environment to an even shallower environment with highly fluctuating salinity. The analyses of the core from 100 m water depth in the Bay of Isvika resulted in the determination of four foraminiferal assemblages. These indicated changes from a glacier-proximal environment during deglaciation, to a more glacier-distal environment during the Early Holocene. This was followed by a period with a marked change to a considerably cooler environment and finally to a closed fjord environment in the middle and late Holocene times. Additional sedimentological analyses of the marine and glacially derived sediments from the uplifted sections, as well as observations of multiple striae on the bedrock, observations of deeply weathered bedrock and findings of tills interlayered with marine sediments complete the investigations in the study area. They indicate weak glacial erosion in the study area. It can be concluded that marine deposition occurred in the investigated area during three time intervals in the Weichselian and during most of the Holocene. The foraminiferal assemblages in the Holocene are characterized by a transition from glacier-proximal to glacier-distal faunas. The palaeogeographical change from an open fjord to a closed fjord environment is a result of the isostatic uplift of the area after the LGM and is clearly reflected in the foraminiferal assemblages. Another influencing factor on the foraminiferal assemblage composition are changes in the inflow of warmer Atlantic waters to the study area.

Microsite occupancy and spatial structure of regeneration in three late-successional Norway spruce forests in northern Europe

A comparison of microsite occupancy and the spatial structure of regeneration in three areas of late-successional Norway spruce dominated forest. Pallas-Ylläs is understood to have been influenced only by small-scale disturbance; Dvina-Pinega has had sporadic larger-scale disturbances; Kazkim has been affected by fire. All spruce and birch trees with diameter at breast height (DBH) ?10 cm were mapped in five stands on 40 m x 400 m transects, and those with DBH < 10 cm on 2 or 4 m x 400 m subplots. Microsite type was inventoried at 1m intervals along the centre line and for each tree with DBH < 10 cm. At all study areas small seedlings (h < 0.3 m, DBH < 10 cm) preferentially occupied disturbed microsites. In contrast, spruce saplings (h ? 1.3 m, DBH <10 cm) at all study areas showed less, or no, preference. At Pallas-Ylläs spruce seedlings (h < 1.3 m, DBH < 10 cm) and saplings (h ? 1.3 m, DBH < 10 cm) exhibited spatial correlation at scales from 32-52 m. At Dvina-Pinega saplings of both spruce and birch exhibited spatial correlation at scales from 32-81 m. At Kazkim spatial correlation of seedlings and saplings of both species was exhibited over variable distances. No spatial cross-correlation was found between overstorey basal area (DBH ? 10 cm) and regeneration (h ? 1.3 m, DBH < 10 cm) at any study area. The results confirm the importance of disturbed microsites for seedling establishment, but suggest that undisturbed microsites may sometimes be more advantageous for long-term tree survival. The regeneration gap concept may not be useful in describing the regeneration dynamics of late-successional boreal forests.

Critical leg ischaemia with tissue loss : a challenge for the vascular surgeon

There is a widespread reporting habit of combining the outcomes for patients with rest pain (Fontaine III) and tissue loss (Fontaine IV) under the single category of critical leg ischaemia (CLI). This study focused on patients with ischaemic tissue loss treated with infrainguinal bypass surgery (IBS). All patients included in the study were treated at Helsinki University Central Hospital in 2000-2007. First, ulcer healing time after IBS and factors influencing healing time were prospectively assessed in 2 studies including 148 and 110 patients, respectively. Second,the results of redo IBS were retrospectively evaluated in 593 patients undergoing primary IBS for CLI with tissue loss . Third,long-term outcome were retrospectively analysed in 636 patients who underwent IBS for CLI with tissue loss . Fourth, the outcome of IBS was retrospectively compared with endovascular treatment (PTA) of the infrapopliteal arteries in 1023 CLI patients. Fifth, the influence multidrug resistant Pseudomans aeruginosa (MDR Pa) bacteria contamination in CLI patients treated with IBS was retropectively assessed. Sixty-four patients with positive MDR Pa -culture were matched with 64 MDR Pa - negative controls. Complete ulcer healing rate, including the ischemic ulcers and incisional wounds, was 40% at 6 months after IBS and 75% at one year. Diabetes was a risk factor for prolonged complete ulcer healing time. Ischaemic tissue lesions located in mid-and hindfoot healed poorly. At one year after IBS 50% of the patients were alive with salvaged leg and completely healed ulcers. The absence of gap between tertiary graft patency and leg salvage rates indicates the importance of a patent infrainguinal graft to save a leg with ischaemic tissue loss. Long-term survival for patients with ischaemic tissue loss was poor, 38% at 5 years. Only 30% of the patients were alive without amputation at 5 years. Several of the patient comorbidities increased independently the mortality risk; coronary artery disease, renal insufficiency, chronic obstructive lung disease and high age. When both PTA and bypass is feasible, infrapopliteal PTA as a first-line strategy is expected to achieve similar long-term results to bypass surgery in CLI when redo surgery is actively utilized. MDR Pa in a patient with CLI should be considered as a serious event with increased risk of early major amputation or death. Conclusion: Despite a successful infrainguinal bypass healing of the ischaemic ulcers and incisional wounds ulcer healing is a slow process especially in diabetics. Bypass surgery and PTA improve the outcome of the ischaemic leg but the mortality rate of the patients is high due to their severe comorbidities.

"Oma entinen on palannut takaisin elämään" : Kuntoutuksen vaikuttavuus aikuisena kuuroutuneiden henkilöiden elämänhallintaan ja psykososiaaliseen hyvinvointiin

Objective The objective of this study was to learn about the psychosocial well-being and life management of Finnish adults with late deafness or hearing loss and to observe the effectiveness of the rehabilitation courses they participated in. Methods For my study I used indicators which were suitable for the evaluation of life management and psychosocial well-being of late-deafened adults. The first part of the study was conducted during 2009 as a questionnaire on three rehabilitation courses in Kopola, a course center of the Finnish Federation of Hard of Hearing. The follow-up study was done at the third period of the courses during 2009 2010. The questionnaire contained both open and structured questions. The questionnaire consisted of five areas concerning life management and psychosocial well-being: sense of coherence (life management), human relations and social support, mood, self-esteem and satisfaction with life. I also asked the participants to reflect on their experiences of group rehabilitation. Results and conclusions The participants consisted of seven women and three men. They were approximately 63 years old and were all retired. Loss of hearing was described to have affected their social life, free time, and in general made their lives more difficult. From the course the participants hoped to gain new skills such as signed speech and lip-reading, uplift their mood, accept their loss of hearing and experience peer support. After the courses they replied that they had more close relations with whom they also were a little more in contact with. More participants were satisfied with e.g. their ability to take care of themselves, their free time, financial situation, family life, mental resources and physical shape. Majority of the participants showed symptoms of depression when the courses started, but at the end of the courses these signs had moderated or disappeared for most of them. The participants felt that during the rehabilitation they had been heard, respected, accepted and been taken care of. The course provided the possibility for confiding, and the discussions gave the participants support and consolidation. In conclusion, the course affected positively on the acclimatization to the hearing loss and the empowerment of the participants. The results of this study can be utilized in disability services, the development of rehabilitation and in the social- and health services of senior citizens.

FGF signaling in neurogenesis and patterning of the developing midbrain and anterior hindbrain

Embryonic midbrain and hindbrain are structures which will give rise to brain stem and cerebellum in the adult vertebrates. Brain stem contains several nuclei which are essential for the regulation of movements and behavior. They include serotonin-producing neurons, which develop in the hindbrain, and dopamine-producing neurons in the ventral midbrain. Degeneration and malfunction of these neurons leads to various neurological disorders, including schizophrenia, depression, Alzheimer s, and Parkinson s disease. Thus, understanding their development is of high interest. During embryogenesis, a local signaling center called isthmic organizer regulates the development of midbrain and anterior hindbrain. It secretes peptides belonging to fibroblast growth factor (FGF) and Wingless/Int (Wnt) families. These factors bind to their receptors in the surrounding tissues, and activate various downstream signaling pathways which lead to alterations in gene expression. This in turn affects the various developmental processes in this region, such as proliferation, survival, patterning, and neuronal differentiation. In this study we have analyzed the role of FGFs in the development of midbrain and anterior hindbrain, by using mouse as a model organism. We show that FGF receptors cooperate to receive isthmic signals, and cell-autonomously promote cell survival, proliferation, and maintenance of neuronal progenitors. FGF signaling is required for the maintenance of Sox3 and Hes1 expression in progenitors, and Hes1 in turn suppresses the activity of proneural genes. Loss of Hes1 is correlated with increased cell cycle exit and premature neuronal differentiation. We further demonstrate that FGF8 protein forms an antero-posterior gradient in the basal lamina, and might enter the neuronal progenitors via their basal processes. We also analyze the impact of FGF signaling on the various neuronal nuclei in midbrain and hindbrain. Rostral serotonergic neurons appear to require high levels of FGF signaling in order to develop. In the absence of FGF signaling, these neurons are absent. We also show that embryonic meso-diencephalic dopaminergic domain consists of two populations in the anterior-posterior direction, and that these populations display different molecular profiles. The anterior diencephalic domain appears less dependent on isthmic FGFs, and lack several genes typical of midbrain dopaminergic neurons, such as Pitx3 and DAT. In Fgfr compound mutants, midbrain dopaminergic neurons begin to develop but soon adopt characteristics which highly resemble those of diencephalic dopaminergic precursors. Our results indicate that FGF signaling regulates patterning of these two domains cell-autonomously.

The Reception of the Maccabean Martyrs : Their Historiographical and Paradigmatic Functions in Antique and Late-antique Jewish and Christian Sources

The study attempts a reception-historical analysis of the Maccabean martyrs. The concept of reception has fundamentally to do with the re-use and interpretation of a text within new texts. In a religious tradition, certain elements become re-circulated and thus their reception may reflect the development of that particular tradition. The Maccabean martyrs first appear in 2 Maccabees. In my study, it is the Maccabean martyr figures who count as the received text; the focus is shifted from the interrelations between texts onto how the figures have been exploited in early Christian and Rabbinic sources. I have divided my sources into two categories and my analysis is in two parts. First, I analyze the reception of the Maccabean martyrs within Jewish and Christian historiographical sources, focusing on the role given to them in the depictions of the Maccabean Revolt (Chapter 3). I conclude that, within Jewish historiography, the martyrs are given roles, which vary between ultimate efficacy and marginal position with regard to making a historical difference. In Christian historiographical sources, the martyrs role grows in importance by time: however, it is not before a Christian cult of the Maccabean martyrs has been established, that the Christian historiographies consider them historically effective. After the first part, I move on to analyze the reception in sources, which make use of the Maccabean martyrs as paradigmatic figures (Chapter 4). I have suggested that the martyrs are paradigmatic in the context of martyrdom, persecution and destruction, on one hand, and in a homiletic context, inspiring religious celebration, on the other. I conclude that, as the figures are considered pre-Christian and biblical martyrs, they function well in terms of Christian martyrdom and have contributed to the development of its ideals. Furthermore, the presentation of the martyr figures in Rabbinic sources demonstrates how the notion of Jewish martyrdom arises from experiences of destruction and despair, not so much from heroic confession of faith in the face of persecution. Before the emergence of a Christian cult of the Maccabean martyrs, their identity is derived namely from their biblical position. Later on, in the homiletic context, their Jewish identity is debated and sometimes reconstructed as fundamentally Christian , despite of their Jewish origins. Similar debate about their identity is not found in the Rabbinic versions of their martyrdom and nothing there indicates a mutual debate between early Christians and Jews. A thematic comparison shows that the Rabbinic and Christian cases of reception are non-reliant on each other but also that they link to one another. Especially the scriptural connections, often made to the Maccabean mother, reveal the similarities. The results of the analyses confirm that the early history of Christianity and Rabbinic Judaism share, at least partly, the same religious environment and intertwining traditions, not only during the first century or two but until Late Antiquity and beyond. More likely, the reception of the Maccabean martyrs demonstrates that these religious traditions never ceased to influence one another.