Modeling Asymmetries in Financial Data with Multiplicative Error Models

This thesis addresses modeling of financial time series, especially stock market returns and daily price ranges. Modeling data of this kind can be approached with so-called multiplicative error models (MEM). These models nest several well known time series models such as GARCH, ACD and CARR models. They are able to capture many well established features of financial time series including volatility clustering and leptokurtosis. In contrast to these phenomena, different kinds of asymmetries have received relatively little attention in the existing literature. In this thesis asymmetries arise from various sources. They are observed in both conditional and unconditional distributions, for variables with non-negative values and for variables that have values on the real line. In the multivariate context asymmetries can be observed in the marginal distributions as well as in the relationships of the variables modeled. New methods for all these cases are proposed. Chapter 2 considers GARCH models and modeling of returns of two stock market indices. The chapter introduces the so-called generalized hyperbolic (GH) GARCH model to account for asymmetries in both conditional and unconditional distribution. In particular, two special cases of the GARCH-GH model which describe the data most accurately are proposed. They are found to improve the fit of the model when compared to symmetric GARCH models. The advantages of accounting for asymmetries are also observed through Value-at-Risk applications. Both theoretical and empirical contributions are provided in Chapter 3 of the thesis. In this chapter the so-called mixture conditional autoregressive range (MCARR) model is introduced, examined and applied to daily price ranges of the Hang Seng Index. The conditions for the strict and weak stationarity of the model as well as an expression for the autocorrelation function are obtained by writing the MCARR model as a first order autoregressive process with random coefficients. The chapter also introduces inverse gamma (IG) distribution to CARR models. The advantages of CARR-IG and MCARR-IG specifications over conventional CARR models are found in the empirical application both in- and out-of-sample. Chapter 4 discusses the simultaneous modeling of absolute returns and daily price ranges. In this part of the thesis a vector multiplicative error model (VMEM) with asymmetric Gumbel copula is found to provide substantial benefits over the existing VMEM models based on elliptical copulas. The proposed specification is able to capture the highly asymmetric dependence of the modeled variables thereby improving the performance of the model considerably. The economic significance of the results obtained is established when the information content of the volatility forecasts derived is examined.

Data-assimilaatiomenetelmistä ja niiden soveltamisesta ROSE-kemiakuljetusmalllin

Data-assimilaatio on tekniikka, jossa havaintoja yhdistetään dynaamisiin numeerisiin malleihin tarkoituksena tuottaa optimaalista esitystä esimerkiksi ilmankehän muuttuvasta tilasta. Data-assimilaatiota käytetään muun muassa operaativisessa sään ennustamisessa. Tässä työssä esitellään eri data-assimilaatiomenetelmiä, jotka jakautuvat pääpiirteittäin Kalmanin suotimiin ja variaatioanaalisiin menetelmiin. Lisäksi esitellään erilaisia data-assimilaatiossa tarvittavia apuvälineitä kuten optimointimenetelmiä. Eri data-assimilaatiomenetelmien toimintaa havainnollistetaan esimerkkien avulla. Tässä työssä data-assimilaatiota sovelletaan muun muassa Lorenz95-malliin. Käytännön data-assimilaatio-ongelmana on GOMOS-instrumentista saatavan otsonin assimiloiminen käyttäen hyväksi ROSE-kemiakuljetusmallia.

Nashin tasapainon löytämisen laskennallinen vaativuus

Tässä tutkielmassa käsitellään approksimatiivisen Nashin tasapainon löytämisongelmaa laskennallisen vaativuuden kannalta. Vaikka Nashin tasapainon tiedetään olevan aina olemassa, on tasapainon löytäminen osoittautunut vaikeaksi ongelmaksi. Approksimatiivisen Nashin tasapainon löytämisongelma on PPAD-ongelmaluokan täydellinen ongelma. PPAD-luokkaan kuuluvat sellaiset etsintäongelmat, joissa etsittävän ratkaisun olemassaolo seuraa suunnattujen graafien pariteettiargumentista. Suunnattujen graafien pariteettiargumentti toteaa, että jos graafin jokaisen solmun lähtö- ja tuloasteet ovat korkeintaan yksi ja graafissa on tunnettu lähdesolmu, niin graafissa on myös nielusolmu tai toinen lähdesolmu. PPAD-täydellisyyden takia on luultavaa, ettei approksimatiivista Nashin tasapainoa voi löytää polynomisessa ajassa. Tässä kirjoituksessa esitetään uudelleenmuotoiltu ja tarkennettu versio approksimatiivisen Nashin tasapainon löytämisongelman PPAD-vaikeustodistuksesta. Lisäksi esitetään todistus ongelman kuulumiselle luokkaan PPAD. Vastaavaa todistusta ei löydy kirjallisuudesta, vaikka approksimatiivisen Nashin tasapainon löytämisongelman kuuluminen luokkaan PPAD mainitaan.

Tietokoneavusteinen arviointi kurssilla Diskreetin matematiikan perusteet

Matematiikan opetuksen kehittämiseen korkeakoulutasolla on monia tapoja. Tavoitteena on parantaa opiskelijoiden opiskelukokemuksia, jotta he oppisivat paremmin. Oppimisen arvioinnin on todettu vaikuttavan oppimiseen merkittävästi. Arviointi tapahtuu yleensä sen perusteella, kuinka hyvin opiskelija menestyy kokeissa. Näihin kokeisiin liittyy kuitenkin useita ongelmia; ne koostuvat usein muutamasta tehtävästä, eivätkä siten kata koko koealuetta. Lisäksi perinteinen koetilanne on kaukana siitä ympäristöstä, jossa opittuja taitoja on tarkoitus käyttää. Tässä työssä tutkittiin Aalto-yliopiston Teknillisen korkeakoulun kurssin Diskreetin matematiikan perusteet (DMP) arviointikäytännön uudistamista. Kurssi toteutettiin sulautuvan oppimisen mallin mukaisesti osin verkossa. Arvioinnissa painotettiin jatkuvaa harjoitustehtävien tekemistä ja suurin osa näistä tehtävistä toteutetiin tietokoneavusteisina verkkotehtävinä. Käytössä oli automaattisen tarkistamisen mahdollistava STACK-järjestelmä. Työ jakaantui kahteen osaan: arvioinnissa käytettävien STACK-tehtävien laatimiseen ja empiiriseen osuuteen, jossa tutkittiin kurssin onnistumista. Tutkimuksessa keskityttiin toisaalta siihen, miten käytetty arviointimenetelmä toimi ja toisaalta siihen, millaiseksi opiskelijat menetelmän kokivat. Kurssia varten toteutettiin yhteensä 67 STACK-tehtävää, joista 46 oli käytössä kurssilla. Lisäksi kurssilla oli 26 perinteistä kirjallista tehtävää. Käytetyn arviointimenetelmän toimivuutta tutkittiin vertaamalla kurssin tuloksia vuosien 2008 ja 2009 DMP-kurssien tuloksiin. Vertailun perusteella huomattiin, että opiskelijat olivat vuonna 2010 ratkaisseet selvästi enemmän harjoitustehtäviä kuin edellisinä vuosina. Myös arvosanan 0 prosentuaalinen osuus suhteessa kaikkiin annettuihin arvosanoihin pieneni. Opiskelijoiden kokemuksien tutkimista varten laadittiin kurssikokemuskysely. Kyselyssä esitettiin väittämiä liittyen STACK-tehtävien laatuun, tavoitteiden ja vaatimusten selkeyteen, arvioinnin asianmukaisuuteen, työmäärän asianmukaisuuteen, opiskelijoiden sitoutuneisuuteen, käytännön järjestelyihin ja sulautuvaan oppimiseen liittyen. Tulokset olivat erittäin positiivisia. Kaikenkaikkiaan kokeilukurssi sujui hyvin; arvointimenetelmä toimi ja opiskelijat olivat tyytyväisiä. Vertailun ja kyselyn perusteella tärkeimmiksi kehityksen kohteiksi nousivat STACK-tehtävien automaattinen palaute, perinteisten tehtävien pisteyttäminen ja jako perinteisten tehtävien ja STACK-tehtävien välillä.

Luokan P loogisesta karakterisoinnista

Deskriptiivisessä vaativuusteoriassa tutkitaan laskennan vaativuuteen liittyviä kysymyksiä logiikan työkalujen avulla. Tällöin käsitellään tilannetta, jossa laskennan syötteenä toimivat äärelliset mallit. Tässä kehyksessä erinäisiä vaativuusluokkia voidaan karakterisoida etsimällä logiikoita, joilla on kyseistä vaativuusluokkaa vastaava ilmaisuvoima. Klassiset esimerkit tällaisista tuloksista ovat Faginin esittämä epädeterministisen polynomiaalisen ajan karakterisaatio logiikan Σ_1^1 avulla ja Immermanin, Livchakin ja Vardin esittämä deterministisen polynomiaalisen ajan karakterisaatio ensimmäisen kertaluvun inflatorisen kiintopistelogiikan avulla. Tässä opinnäytetyössä tarkastellaan Gurevichin esittämää kysymystä polynomiaalisessa ajassa ratkeavien kielten luokan P vahvasta loogisesta karakterisaatiosta. Kyseinen kysymys on yksi äärellisen malliteorian haastavimpia ongelmia. Kysymyksen esittelyyn tarvittavan peruskoneiston läpikäynnin lisäksi tässä käsi- tellään myös sen yhteyksiä laskennan vaativuusteoriassa keskeiseen P-NP-ongelmaan. Gurevichin kysymyksestä voidaan esittää myös rajoitetumpia versioita, mikäli käsitellään tilannetta, jossa laskennan syötteenä voi olla vain kiinnitetyn malliluokan K malleja. Tällöin luokan P karakterisointi helpottuu, ainakin jos luokka K on riittävän suppea. Tässä opinnäytetyössä käydään läpi Grohen esittämä tulos siitä, että mikäli luokaksi K valitaan 3-yhtenäisten tasoverkkojen luokka, niin ensimmäisen kertaluvun inflatorinen kiintopistelogiikka karakterisoi polynomiaalisessa ajassa laskettavat kielet.

Computational Methods for Reconstruction and Analysis of Genome-Scale Metabolic Networks

Metabolism is the cellular subsystem responsible for generation of energy from nutrients and production of building blocks for larger macromolecules. Computational and statistical modeling of metabolism is vital to many disciplines including bioengineering, the study of diseases, drug target identification, and understanding the evolution of metabolism. In this thesis, we propose efficient computational methods for metabolic modeling. The techniques presented are targeted particularly at the analysis of large metabolic models encompassing the whole metabolism of one or several organisms. We concentrate on three major themes of metabolic modeling: metabolic pathway analysis, metabolic reconstruction and the study of evolution of metabolism. In the first part of this thesis, we study metabolic pathway analysis. We propose a novel modeling framework called gapless modeling to study biochemically viable metabolic networks and pathways. In addition, we investigate the utilization of atom-level information on metabolism to improve the quality of pathway analyses. We describe efficient algorithms for discovering both gapless and atom-level metabolic pathways, and conduct experiments with large-scale metabolic networks. The presented gapless approach offers a compromise in terms of complexity and feasibility between the previous graph-theoretic and stoichiometric approaches to metabolic modeling. Gapless pathway analysis shows that microbial metabolic networks are not as robust to random damage as suggested by previous studies. Furthermore the amino acid biosynthesis pathways of the fungal species Trichoderma reesei discovered from atom-level data are shown to closely correspond to those of Saccharomyces cerevisiae. In the second part, we propose computational methods for metabolic reconstruction in the gapless modeling framework. We study the task of reconstructing a metabolic network that does not suffer from connectivity problems. Such problems often limit the usability of reconstructed models, and typically require a significant amount of manual postprocessing. We formulate gapless metabolic reconstruction as an optimization problem and propose an efficient divide-and-conquer strategy to solve it with real-world instances. We also describe computational techniques for solving problems stemming from ambiguities in metabolite naming. These techniques have been implemented in a web-based sofware ReMatch intended for reconstruction of models for 13C metabolic flux analysis. In the third part, we extend our scope from single to multiple metabolic networks and propose an algorithm for inferring gapless metabolic networks of ancestral species from phylogenetic data. Experimenting with 16 fungal species, we show that the method is able to generate results that are easily interpretable and that provide hypotheses about the evolution of metabolism.

Computational Methods for Detecting Large-Scale Chromosome Rearrangements in SNP Data

Large-scale chromosome rearrangements such as copy number variants (CNVs) and inversions encompass a considerable proportion of the genetic variation between human individuals. In a number of cases, they have been closely linked with various inheritable diseases. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are another large part of the genetic variance between individuals. They are also typically abundant and their measuring is straightforward and cheap. This thesis presents computational means of using SNPs to detect the presence of inversions and deletions, a particular variety of CNVs. Technically, the inversion-detection algorithm detects the suppressed recombination rate between inverted and non-inverted haplotype populations whereas the deletion-detection algorithm uses the EM-algorithm to estimate the haplotype frequencies of a window with and without a deletion haplotype. As a contribution to population biology, a coalescent simulator for simulating inversion polymorphisms has been developed. Coalescent simulation is a backward-in-time method of modelling population ancestry. Technically, the simulator also models multiple crossovers by using the Counting model as the chiasma interference model. Finally, this thesis includes an experimental section. The aforementioned methods were tested on synthetic data to evaluate their power and specificity. They were also applied to the HapMap Phase II and Phase III data sets, yielding a number of candidates for previously unknown inversions, deletions and also correctly detecting known such rearrangements.

Semantic Classes in Topic Detection and Tracking

Topic detection and tracking (TDT) is an area of information retrieval research the focus of which revolves around news events. The problems TDT deals with relate to segmenting news text into cohesive stories, detecting something new, previously unreported, tracking the development of a previously reported event, and grouping together news that discuss the same event. The performance of the traditional information retrieval techniques based on full-text similarity has remained inadequate for online production systems. It has been difficult to make the distinction between same and similar events. In this work, we explore ways of representing and comparing news documents in order to detect new events and track their development. First, however, we put forward a conceptual analysis of the notions of topic and event. The purpose is to clarify the terminology and align it with the process of news-making and the tradition of story-telling. Second, we present a framework for document similarity that is based on semantic classes, i.e., groups of words with similar meaning. We adopt people, organizations, and locations as semantic classes in addition to general terms. As each semantic class can be assigned its own similarity measure, document similarity can make use of ontologies, e.g., geographical taxonomies. The documents are compared class-wise, and the outcome is a weighted combination of class-wise similarities. Third, we incorporate temporal information into document similarity. We formalize the natural language temporal expressions occurring in the text, and use them to anchor the rest of the terms onto the time-line. Upon comparing documents for event-based similarity, we look not only at matching terms, but also how near their anchors are on the time-line. Fourth, we experiment with an adaptive variant of the semantic class similarity system. The news reflect changes in the real world, and in order to keep up, the system has to change its behavior based on the contents of the news stream. We put forward two strategies for rebuilding the topic representations and report experiment results. We run experiments with three annotated TDT corpora. The use of semantic classes increased the effectiveness of topic tracking by 10-30\% depending on the experimental setup. The gain in spotting new events remained lower, around 3-4\%. The anchoring the text to a time-line based on the temporal expressions gave a further 10\% increase the effectiveness of topic tracking. The gains in detecting new events, again, remained smaller. The adaptive systems did not improve the tracking results.

Multi-user resource-sharing problem for the Internet

In this thesis we study a series of multi-user resource-sharing problems for the Internet, which involve distribution of a common resource among participants of multi-user systems (servers or networks). We study concurrently accessible resources, which for end-users may be exclusively accessible or non-exclusively. For all kinds we suggest a separate algorithm or a modification of common reputation scheme. Every algorithm or method is studied from different perspectives: optimality of protocols, selfishness of end users, fairness of the protocol for end users. On the one hand the multifaceted analysis allows us to select the most suited protocols among a set of various available ones based on trade-offs of optima criteria. On the other hand, the future Internet predictions dictate new rules for the optimality we should take into account and new properties of the networks that cannot be neglected anymore. In this thesis we have studied new protocols for such resource-sharing problems as the backoff protocol, defense mechanisms against Denial-of-Service, fairness and confidentiality for users in overlay networks. For backoff protocol we present analysis of a general backoff scheme, where an optimization is applied to a general-view backoff function. It leads to an optimality condition for backoff protocols in both slot times and continuous time models. Additionally we present an extension for the backoff scheme in order to achieve fairness for the participants in an unfair environment, such as wireless signal strengths. Finally, for the backoff algorithm we suggest a reputation scheme that deals with misbehaving nodes. For the next problem -- denial-of-service attacks, we suggest two schemes that deal with the malicious behavior for two conditions: forged identities and unspoofed identities. For the first one we suggest a novel most-knocked-first-served algorithm, while for the latter we apply a reputation mechanism in order to restrict resource access for misbehaving nodes. Finally, we study the reputation scheme for the overlays and peer-to-peer networks, where resource is not placed on a common station, but spread across the network. The theoretical analysis suggests what behavior will be selected by the end station under such a reputation mechanism.

IP Mobility in Wireless Operator Networks

Wireless network access is gaining increased heterogeneity in terms of the types of IP capable access technologies. The access network heterogeneity is an outcome of incremental and evolutionary approach of building new infrastructure. The recent success of multi-radio terminals drives both building a new infrastructure and implicit deployment of heterogeneous access networks. Typically there is no economical reason to replace the existing infrastructure when building a new one. The gradual migration phase usually takes several years. IP-based mobility across different access networks may involve both horizontal and vertical handovers. Depending on the networking environment, the mobile terminal may be attached to the network through multiple access technologies. Consequently, the terminal may send and receive packets through multiple networks simultaneously. This dissertation addresses the introduction of IP Mobility paradigm into the existing mobile operator network infrastructure that have not originally been designed for multi-access and IP Mobility. We propose a model for the future wireless networking and roaming architecture that does not require revolutionary technology changes and can be deployed without unnecessary complexity. The model proposes a clear separation of operator roles: (i) access operator, (ii) service operator, and (iii) inter-connection and roaming provider. The separation allows each type of an operator to have their own development path and business models without artificial bindings with each other. We also propose minimum requirements for the new model. We present the state of the art of IP Mobility. We also present results of standardization efforts in IP-based wireless architectures. Finally, we present experimentation results of IP-level mobility in various wireless operator deployments.

Computing the Stochastic Complexity of Simple Probabilistic Graphical Models

Minimum Description Length (MDL) is an information-theoretic principle that can be used for model selection and other statistical inference tasks. There are various ways to use the principle in practice. One theoretically valid way is to use the normalized maximum likelihood (NML) criterion. Due to computational difficulties, this approach has not been used very often. This thesis presents efficient floating-point algorithms that make it possible to compute the NML for multinomial, Naive Bayes and Bayesian forest models. None of the presented algorithms rely on asymptotic analysis and with the first two model classes we also discuss how to compute exact rational number solutions.

The Most Probable Bayesian Network and Beyond

This doctoral dissertation introduces an algorithm for constructing the most probable Bayesian network from data for small domains. The algorithm is used to show that a popular goodness criterion for the Bayesian networks has a severe sensitivity problem. The dissertation then proposes an information theoretic criterion that avoids the problem.

Computational Techniques for Haplotype Inference and for Local Alignment Significance

This thesis which consists of an introduction and four peer-reviewed original publications studies the problems of haplotype inference (haplotyping) and local alignment significance. The problems studied here belong to the broad area of bioinformatics and computational biology. The presented solutions are computationally fast and accurate, which makes them practical in high-throughput sequence data analysis. Haplotype inference is a computational problem where the goal is to estimate haplotypes from a sample of genotypes as accurately as possible. This problem is important as the direct measurement of haplotypes is difficult, whereas the genotypes are easier to quantify. Haplotypes are the key-players when studying for example the genetic causes of diseases. In this thesis, three methods are presented for the haplotype inference problem referred to as HaploParser, HIT, and BACH. HaploParser is based on a combinatorial mosaic model and hierarchical parsing that together mimic recombinations and point-mutations in a biologically plausible way. In this mosaic model, the current population is assumed to be evolved from a small founder population. Thus, the haplotypes of the current population are recombinations of the (implicit) founder haplotypes with some point--mutations. HIT (Haplotype Inference Technique) uses a hidden Markov model for haplotypes and efficient algorithms are presented to learn this model from genotype data. The model structure of HIT is analogous to the mosaic model of HaploParser with founder haplotypes. Therefore, it can be seen as a probabilistic model of recombinations and point-mutations. BACH (Bayesian Context-based Haplotyping) utilizes a context tree weighting algorithm to efficiently sum over all variable-length Markov chains to evaluate the posterior probability of a haplotype configuration. Algorithms are presented that find haplotype configurations with high posterior probability. BACH is the most accurate method presented in this thesis and has comparable performance to the best available software for haplotype inference. Local alignment significance is a computational problem where one is interested in whether the local similarities in two sequences are due to the fact that the sequences are related or just by chance. Similarity of sequences is measured by their best local alignment score and from that, a p-value is computed. This p-value is the probability of picking two sequences from the null model that have as good or better best local alignment score. Local alignment significance is used routinely for example in homology searches. In this thesis, a general framework is sketched that allows one to compute a tight upper bound for the p-value of a local pairwise alignment score. Unlike the previous methods, the presented framework is not affeced by so-called edge-effects and can handle gaps (deletions and insertions) without troublesome sampling and curve fitting.

Methods for Answer Extraction in Textual Question Answering

In this thesis we present and evaluate two pattern matching based methods for answer extraction in textual question answering systems. A textual question answering system is a system that seeks answers to natural language questions from unstructured text. Textual question answering systems are an important research problem because as the amount of natural language text in digital format grows all the time, the need for novel methods for pinpointing important knowledge from the vast textual databases becomes more and more urgent. We concentrate on developing methods for the automatic creation of answer extraction patterns. A new type of extraction pattern is developed also. The pattern matching based approach chosen is interesting because of its language and application independence. The answer extraction methods are developed in the framework of our own question answering system. Publicly available datasets in English are used as training and evaluation data for the methods. The techniques developed are based on the well known methods of sequence alignment and hierarchical clustering. The similarity metric used is based on edit distance. The main conclusions of the research are that answer extraction patterns consisting of the most important words of the question and of the following information extracted from the answer context: plain words, part-of-speech tags, punctuation marks and capitalization patterns, can be used in the answer extraction module of a question answering system. This type of patterns and the two new methods for generating answer extraction patterns provide average results when compared to those produced by other systems using the same dataset. However, most answer extraction methods in the question answering systems tested with the same dataset are both hand crafted and based on a system-specific and fine-grained question classification. The the new methods developed in this thesis require no manual creation of answer extraction patterns. As a source of knowledge, they require a dataset of sample questions and answers, as well as a set of text documents that contain answers to most of the questions. The question classification used in the training data is a standard one and provided already in the publicly available data.

Algorithms for 13C metabolic flux analysis

The metabolism of an organism consists of a network of biochemical reactions that transform small molecules, or metabolites, into others in order to produce energy and building blocks for essential macromolecules. The goal of metabolic flux analysis is to uncover the rates, or the fluxes, of those biochemical reactions. In a steady state, the sum of the fluxes that produce an internal metabolite is equal to the sum of the fluxes that consume the same molecule. Thus the steady state imposes linear balance constraints to the fluxes. In general, the balance constraints imposed by the steady state are not sufficient to uncover all the fluxes of a metabolic network. The fluxes through cycles and alternative pathways between the same source and target metabolites remain unknown. More information about the fluxes can be obtained from isotopic labelling experiments, where a cell population is fed with labelled nutrients, such as glucose that contains 13C atoms. Labels are then transferred by biochemical reactions to other metabolites. The relative abundances of different labelling patterns in internal metabolites depend on the fluxes of pathways producing them. Thus, the relative abundances of different labelling patterns contain information about the fluxes that cannot be uncovered from the balance constraints derived from the steady state. The field of research that estimates the fluxes utilizing the measured constraints to the relative abundances of different labelling patterns induced by 13C labelled nutrients is called 13C metabolic flux analysis. There exist two approaches of 13C metabolic flux analysis. In the optimization approach, a non-linear optimization task, where candidate fluxes are iteratively generated until they fit to the measured abundances of different labelling patterns, is constructed. In the direct approach, linear balance constraints given by the steady state are augmented with linear constraints derived from the abundances of different labelling patterns of metabolites. Thus, mathematically involved non-linear optimization methods that can get stuck to the local optima can be avoided. On the other hand, the direct approach may require more measurement data than the optimization approach to obtain the same flux information. Furthermore, the optimization framework can easily be applied regardless of the labelling measurement technology and with all network topologies. In this thesis we present a formal computational framework for direct 13C metabolic flux analysis. The aim of our study is to construct as many linear constraints to the fluxes from the 13C labelling measurements using only computational methods that avoid non-linear techniques and are independent from the type of measurement data, the labelling of external nutrients and the topology of the metabolic network. The presented framework is the first representative of the direct approach for 13C metabolic flux analysis that is free from restricting assumptions made about these parameters.In our framework, measurement data is first propagated from the measured metabolites to other metabolites. The propagation is facilitated by the flow analysis of metabolite fragments in the network. Then new linear constraints to the fluxes are derived from the propagated data by applying the techniques of linear algebra.Based on the results of the fragment flow analysis, we also present an experiment planning method that selects sets of metabolites whose relative abundances of different labelling patterns are most useful for 13C metabolic flux analysis. Furthermore, we give computational tools to process raw 13C labelling data produced by tandem mass spectrometry to a form suitable for 13C metabolic flux analysis.