Maximum Loss Calculation using Scenario Analysis, Heavy Tails and Implied Volatility Patterns

The objective of this paper is to improve option risk monitoring by examining the information content of implied volatility and by introducing the calculation of a single-sum expected risk exposure similar to the Value-at-Risk. The figure is calculated in two steps. First, there is a need to estimate the value of a portfolio of options for a number of different market scenarios, while the second step is to summarize the information content of the estimated scenarios into a single-sum risk measure. This involves the use of probability theory and return distributions, which confronts the user with the problems of non-normality in the return distribution of the underlying asset. Here the hyperbolic distribution is used to describe one alternative for dealing with heavy tails. Results indicate that the information content of implied volatility is useful when predicting future large returns in the underlying asset. Further, the hyperbolic distribution provides a good fit to historical returns enabling a more accurate definition of statistical intervals and extreme events.

On ion escape from Venus

This doctoral thesis is about the solar wind influence on the atmosphere of the planet Venus. A numerical plasma simulation model was developed for the interaction between Venus and the solar wind to study the erosion of charged particles from the Venus upper atmosphere. The developed model is a hybrid simulation where ions are treated as particles and electrons are modelled as a fluid. The simulation was used to study the solar wind induced ion escape from Venus as observed by the European Space Agency's Venus Express and NASA's Pioneer Venus Orbiter spacecraft. Especially, observations made by the ASPERA-4 particle instrument onboard Venus Express were studied. The thesis consists of an introductory part and four peer-reviewed articles published in scientific journals. In the introduction Venus is presented as one of the terrestrial planets in the Solar System and the main findings of the work are discussed within the wider context of planetary physics. Venus is the closest neighbouring planet to the Earth and the most earthlike planet in its size and mass orbiting the Sun. Whereas the atmosphere of the Earth consists mainly of nitrogen and oxygen, Venus has a hot carbon dioxide atmosphere, which is dominated by the greenhouse effect. Venus has all of its water in the atmosphere, which is only a fraction of the Earth's total water supply. Since planets developed presumably in similar conditions in the young Solar System, why Venus and Earth became so different in many respects? One important feature of Venus is that the planet does not have an intrinsic magnetic field. This makes it possible for the solar wind, a continuous stream of charged particles from the Sun, to flow close to Venus and to pick up ions from the planet's upper atmosphere. The strong intrinsic magnetic field of the Earth dominates the terrestrial magnetosphere and deflects the solar wind flow far away from the atmosphere. The region around Venus where the planet's atmosphere interacts with the solar wind is called the plasma environment or the induced magnetosphere. Main findings of the work include new knowledge about the movement of escaping planetary ions in the Venusian induced magnetosphere. Further, the developed simulation model was used to study how the solar wind conditions affect the ion escape from Venus. Especially, the global three-dimensional structure of the Venusian particle and magnetic environment was studied. The results help to interpret spacecraft observations around the planet. Finally, several remaining questions were identified, which could potentially improve our knowledge of the Venus ion escape and guide the future development of planetary plasma simulations.

Direct detection of atmospheric particle formation using the Neutral cluster and Air Ion Spectrometer

Aerosol particles play an important role in the Earth s atmosphere and in the climate system: they scatter and absorb solar radiation, facilitate chemical processes, and serve as seeds for cloud formation. Secondary new particle formation (NPF) is a globally important source of these particles. Currently, the mechanisms of particle formation and the vapors participating in this process are, however, not truly understood. In order to fully explain atmospheric NPF and subsequent growth, we need to measure directly the very initial steps of the formation processes. This thesis investigates the possibility to study atmospheric particle formation using a recently developed Neutral cluster and Air Ion Spectrometer (NAIS). First, the NAIS was calibrated and intercompared, and found to be in good agreement with the reference instruments both in the laboratory and in the field. It was concluded that NAIS can be reliably used to measure small atmospheric ions and particles directly at the sizes where NPF begins. Second, several NAIS systems were deployed simultaneously at 12 European measurement sites to quantify the spatial and temporal distribution of particle formation events. The sites represented a variety of geographical and atmospheric conditions. The NPF events were detected using NAIS systems at all of the sites during the year-long measurement period. Various particle formation characteristics, such as formation and growth rates, were used as indicators of the relevant processes and participating compounds in the initial formation. In a case of parallel ion and neutral cluster measurements, we also estimated the relative contribution of ion-induced and neutral nucleation to the total particle formation. At most sites, the particle growth rate increased with the increasing particle size indicating that different condensing vapors are participating in the growth of different-sized particles. The results suggest that, in addition to sulfuric acid, organic vapors contribute to the initial steps of NPF and to the subsequent growth, not just later steps of the particle growth. As a significant new result, we found out that the total particle formation rate varied much more between the different sites than the formation rate of charged particles. The results infer that the ion-induced nucleation has a minor contribution to particle formation in the boundary layer in most of the environments. These results give tools to better quantify the aerosol source provided by secondary NPF in various environments. The particle formation characteristics determined in this thesis can be used in global models to assess NPF s climatic effects.

On the charging state of atmospheric aerosols and ion-induced nucleation

Floating in the air that surrounds us is a number of small particles, invisible to the human eye. The mixture of air and particles, liquid or solid, is called an aerosol. Aerosols have significant effects on air quality, visibility and health, and on the Earth's climate. Their effect on the Earth's climate is the least understood of climatically relevant effects. They can scatter the incoming radiation from the Sun, or they can act as seeds onto which cloud droplets are formed. Aerosol particles are created directly, by human activity or natural reasons such as breaking ocean waves or sandstorms. They can also be created indirectly as vapors or very small particles are emitted into the atmosphere and they combine to form small particles that later grow to reach climatically or health relevant sizes. The mechanisms through which those particles are formed is still under scientific discussion, even though this knowledge is crucial to make air quality or climate predictions, or to understand how aerosols will influence and will be influenced by the climate's feedback loops. One of the proposed mechanisms responsible for new particle formation is ion-induced nucleation. This mechanism is based on the idea that newly formed particles were ultimately formed around an electric charge. The amount of available charges in the atmosphere varies depending on radon concentrations in the soil and in the air, as well as incoming ionizing radiation from outer space. In this thesis, ion-induced nucleation is investigated through long-term measurements in two different environments: in the background site of Hyytiälä and in the urban site that is Helsinki. The main conclusion of this thesis is that ion-induced nucleation generally plays a minor role in new particle formation. The fraction of particles formed varies from day to day and from place to place. The relative importance of ion-induced nucleation, i.e. the fraction of particles formed through ion-induced nucleation, is bigger in cleaner areas where the absolute number of particles formed is smaller. Moreover, ion-induced nucleation contributes to a bigger fraction of particles on warmer days, when the sulfuric acid and water vapor saturation ratios are lower. This analysis will help to understand the feedbacks associated with climate change.