Methods and applications for improving parameter prediction models for stand structures in Finland

This thesis report attempts to improve the models for predicting forest stand structure for practical use, e.g. forest management planning (FMP) purposes in Finland. Comparisons were made between Weibull and Johnson s SB distribution and alternative regression estimation methods. Data used for preliminary studies was local but the final models were based on representative data. Models were validated mainly in terms of bias and RMSE in the main stand characteristics (e.g. volume) using independent data. The bivariate SBB distribution model was used to mimic realistic variations in tree dimensions by including within-diameter-class height variation. Using the traditional method, diameter distribution with the expected height resulted in reduced height variation, whereas the alternative bivariate method utilized the error-term of the height model. The lack of models for FMP was covered to some extent by the models for peatland and juvenile stands. The validation of these models showed that the more sophisticated regression estimation methods provided slightly improved accuracy. A flexible prediction and application for stand structure consisted of seemingly unrelated regression models for eight stand characteristics, the parameters of three optional distributions and Näslund s height curve. The cross-model covariance structure was used for linear prediction application, in which the expected values of the models were calibrated with the known stand characteristics. This provided a framework to validate the optional distributions and the optional set of stand characteristics. Height distribution is recommended for the earliest state of stands because of its continuous feature. From the mean height of about 4 m, Weibull dbh-frequency distribution is recommended in young stands if the input variables consist of arithmetic stand characteristics. In advanced stands, basal area-dbh distribution models are recommended. Näslund s height curve proved useful. Some efficient transformations of stand characteristics are introduced, e.g. the shape index, which combined the basal area, the stem number and the median diameter. Shape index enabled SB model for peatland stands to detect large variation in stand densities. This model also demonstrated reasonable behaviour for stands in mineral soils.

Metsän erirakenteisuutta edistävien hakkuiden kannattavuustarkastelu metsäaluetasolla

Tutkimuksessa vertailtiin metsän erirakenteisuutta edistävien poimintahakkuiden ja pienaukkohakkuiden kannattavuutta metsänhoitosuositusten mukaiseen metsänkasvatukseen Keski-Suomessa. Poimintahakkuut ja pienaukkohakkuut ovat menetelmiä, joilla voidaan lisätä luonnonmetsän häiriödynamiikan mukaista pienipiirteistä elinympäristöjen vaihtelua ja siksi ne sopivat etenkin erityiskohteisiin monimuotoisuuden, maiseman tai metsien monikäytön vuoksi. Ne johtavat yleensä vähitellen eri-ikäisrakenteiseen metsään, jossa puuston läpimittaluokkajakauma muistuttaa käänteistä J-kirjainta. Eri-ikäisrakenteisen metsänkäsittelyn taloudellista kannattavuutta puoltavat uudistumiskustannusten poisjäänti ja tukkipuihin painottuvat säännöllisin väliajoin toteutuvat hakkuut. Menetelmän soveltumista Suomen olosuhteisiin pidetään kuitenkin epävarmana. Tässä tutkimuksessa tarkasteltiin tasaikäisrakenteisen metsän muuttamista eri-ikäisrakenteiseksi 40 vuoden siirtymäaikana Metsähallituksen hallinnoimassa Isojäven ympäristöarvometsässä Kuhmoisissa. Tutkimusaineisto koostui 405 kuusivaltaisesta tasaikäisestä kuviosta, joiden pinta-alasta metsämaata on 636 hehtaaria. Metsän kehitystä simuloitiin puutason kasvumalleja käyttäen ja käsittelytoimenpiteet simuloitiin viisivuotiskausittain SIMO-metsäsuunnitteluohjelmistolla. Simulointien avulla selvitettiin jokaisen käsittelyskenaarion hakkuumäärät puutavaralajeittain, diskontatut kassavirrat ja puustopääoman muutos tarkasteluajanjakson aikana. Puunkorjuun yksikkökustannusten laskennan apuna käytettiin automatisoitua seurantajärjestelmää, jossa metsäkoneisiin asennettuilla matkapuhelimilla kerättiin MobiDoc2-sovelluksella metsäkoneiden käytöstä kiihtyvyystiedot, GPS-paikkatiedot ja syötetiedot. Lopulta jokaiselle käsittelyskenaariolle laskettiin metsän puuntuotannollista arvoa kuvaavalla tuottoarvon yhtälöllä nettonykyarvot, josta vähennettiin diskontatut puunkorjuun kustannukset. Tutkimuksen tulosten mukaan poimintahakkuun NPV oli 3 prosentin korkokannalla noin 91 % (7420 €/ha) ja pienaukkohakkuiden noin 99 % (8076 €/ha) metsänhoitosuositusten mukaisesta käsittelystä (8176 €/ha). Komparatiivinen statiikka osoitti, että korkokannan kasvattaminen 5 prosenttiin ei olennaisesti lisännyt nettonykyarvojen eroja. Poimintahakkuiden puunkorjuun yksikkökustannukset olivat 0,8 €/m3 harvennushakkuita pienemmät ja 7,2 €/m3 uudistushakkuita suuremmat. Pienaukkohakkuiden yksikkökustannukset olivat 0,7 €/m3 uudistushakkuita suuremmat.Tulosten perusteella on väistämätöntä että siirtymävaihe tasaikäisrakenteisesta eri-ikäisrakenteiseksi metsäksi aiheuttaa taloudellisia tappioita siitäkin huolimatta, että hakkuut ovat voimakkaita ja tehdään varttuneeseen kasvatusmetsään. Tappion määrä on metsän peitteisyyden ylläpidosta aiheutuva vaihtoehtoiskustannus.

Noninvasive biomarkers for early smoking related lung disease

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a slowly progressive disease characterized by airway inflammation and largely irreversible airflow limitation. One major risk factor for COPD is cigarette smoking. Since the inflammatory process starts many years prior to the onset of clinical symptoms and still continues after smoking cessation, there is an urgent need to find simple non-invasive biomarkers that can be used in the early diagnosis of COPD and which could help in predicting the disease progression. The first aim of the present study was to evaluate the involvement of different oxidative/nitrosative stress markers, matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) and their tissue inhibitor-1 (TIMP-1) in smokers and in COPD. Elevated numbers of inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS), nitrotyrosine, myeloperoxidase (MPO) and 4-hydroxy-2-nonenal (4-HNE) positive cells and increased levels of 8-isoprostane and lactoferrin were found in sputum of non-symptomatic smokers compared to non-smokers, and especially in subjects with stable mild to moderate COPD, and they correlated with the severity of airway obstruction. This suggests that an increased oxidant burden exists already in the airways of smokers with normal lung function values. However, none of these markers could differentiate healthy smokers from symptomatic smokers with normal lung function values i.e. those individuals who are at risk of developing COPD. In contrast what is known about asthma exhaled nitric oxide (FENO) was lower in smokers than in non-smokers, the reduced FENO value was significantly associated with neutrophilic inflammation and the elevated oxidant burden (positive cells for iNOS, nitrotyrosine and MPO). The levels of sputum MMP-8 and plasma MMP-12 appeared to differentiate subjects who have a risk for COPD development but these finding require further investigations. The levels of all studied MMPs correlated with the numbers of neutrophils, and MMP-8 and MMP-9 with markers of neutrophil activation (MPO, lactoferrin) suggesting that especially neutrophil derived oxidants may stimulate the tissue destructive MMPs already in lungs of smokers who are not yet experiencing any airflow limitation. When investigating the role of neutrophil proteases (neutrophil elastase, MMP-8, MMP-9) during COPD exacerbation and its recovery period, we found that levels of all these proteases were increased in sputum of patients with COPD exacerbation as compared to stable COPD and controls, and decreased during the one-month recovery period, giving evidence for a role of these enzymes in COPD exacerbations. In the last study, the effects of subject`s age and smoking habits were evaluated on the plasma levels of surfactant protein A (SP-A), SP-D, MMP-9 and TIMP-1. Long-term smoking increased the levels of all of these proteins. SP-A most clearly correlated with age, pack years and lung function decline (FEV1/FVC), and based on the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, SP-A was the best marker for discriminating subjects with COPD from controls. In conclusion, these findings support the hypothesis that especially neutrophil derived oxidants may activate MMPs and induce an active remodeling process already in the lungs of smokers with normal lung function values. The marked increase of sputum levels of neutrophil proteases in smokers, stable COPD and/or during its exacerbations suggest that these enzymes play a role in the development and progression of COPD. Based on the comparison of various biomarkers, SP-A can be proposed to serve as sensitive biomarker in COPD development.

Bounded turning circles are weak-quasicircles

We show that a metric Jordan curve $\Gamma$ is \emph{bounded turning} if and only if there exists a \emph{weak-quasisymmetric} homeomorphism $\phi\colon \mathsf{S}^1 \to \Gamma$.