Maan magneettikentän dipolimallin toimivuus inklinaatiojakauman perusteella

The magnetic field of the Earth is 99 % of the internal origin and generated in the outer liquid core by the dynamo principle. In the 19th century, Carl Friedrich Gauss proved that the field can be described by a sum of spherical harmonic terms. Presently, this theory is the basis of e.g. IGRF models (International Geomagnetic Reference Field), which are the most accurate description available for the geomagnetic field. In average, dipole forms 3/4 and non-dipolar terms 1/4 of the instantaneous field, but the temporal mean of the field is assumed to be a pure geocentric axial dipolar field. The validity of this GAD (Geocentric Axial Dipole) hypothesis has been estimated by using several methods. In this work, the testing rests on the frequency dependence of inclination with respect to latitude. Each combination of dipole (GAD), quadrupole (G2) and octupole (G3) produces a distinct inclination distribution. These theoretical distributions have been compared with those calculated from empirical observations from different continents, and last, from the entire globe. Only data from Precambrian rocks (over 542 million years old) has been used in this work. The basic assumption is that during the long-term course of drifting continents, the globe is sampled adequately. There were 2823 observations altogether in the paleomagnetic database of the University of Helsinki. The effect of the quality of observations, as well as the age and rocktype, has been tested. For comparison between theoretical and empirical distributions, chi-square testing has been applied. In addition, spatiotemporal binning has effectively been used to remove the errors caused by multiple observations. The modelling from igneous rock data tells that the average magnetic field of the Earth is best described by a combination of a geocentric dipole and a very weak octupole (less than 10 % of GAD). Filtering and binning gave distributions a more GAD-like appearance, but deviation from GAD increased as a function of the age of rocks. The distribution calculated from so called keypoles, the most reliable determinations, behaves almost like GAD, having a zero quadrupole and an octupole 1 % of GAD. In no earlier study, past-400-Ma rocks have given a result so close to GAD, but low inclinations have been prominent especially in the sedimentary data. Despite these results, a greater deal of high-quality data and a proof of the long-term randomness of the Earth's continental motions are needed to make sure the dipole model holds true.

First simultaneous measurement of the top quark mass in the lepton+jets and dilepton channels at CDF

We present a measurement of the mass of the top quark using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1.9fb^-1 of ppbar collisions collected at sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV with the CDF II detector at Fermilab's Tevatron. This is the first measurement of the top quark mass using top-antitop pair candidate events in the lepton + jets and dilepton decay channels simultaneously. We reconstruct two observables in each channel and use a non-parametric kernel density estimation technique to derive two-dimensional probability density functions from simulated signal and background samples. The observables are the top quark mass and the invariant mass of two jets from the W decay in the lepton + jets channel, and the top quark mass and the scalar sum of transverse energy of the event in the dilepton channel. We perform a simultaneous fit for the top quark mass and the jet energy scale, which is constrained in situ by the hadronic W boson mass. Using 332 lepton + jets candidate events and 144 dilepton candidate events, we measure the top quark mass to be mtop=171.9 +/- 1.7 (stat. + JES) +/- 1.1 (syst.) GeV/c^2 = 171.9 +/- 2.0 GeV/c^2.

Measurement of the top quark mass at CDF using the “neutrino ϕ weighting” template method on a lepton plus isolated track sample

We present a measurement of the top quark mass with t-tbar dilepton events produced in p-pbar collisions at the Fermilab Tevatron $\sqrt{s}$=1.96 TeV and collected by the CDF II detector. A sample of 328 events with a charged electron or muon and an isolated track, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 2.9 fb$^{-1}$, are selected as t-tbar candidates. To account for the unconstrained event kinematics, we scan over the phase space of the azimuthal angles ($\phi_{\nu_1},\phi_{\nu_2}$) of neutrinos and reconstruct the top quark mass for each $\phi_{\nu_1},\phi_{\nu_2}$ pair by minimizing a $\chi^2$ function in the t-tbar dilepton hypothesis. We assign $\chi^2$-dependent weights to the solutions in order to build a preferred mass for each event. Preferred mass distributions (templates) are built from simulated t-tbar and background events, and parameterized in order to provide continuous probability density functions. A likelihood fit to the mass distribution in data as a weighted sum of signal and background probability density functions gives a top quark mass of $165.5^{+{3.4}}_{-{3.3}}$(stat.)$\pm 3.1$(syst.) GeV/$c^2$.

Very Low Birth Weight Infants as Young Adults : Focus on aspects of cognition, behavior and sleep

Major advances in the treatment of preterm infants have occurred during the last three decades. Survival rates have increased, and the first generations of preterm infants born at very low birth weight (VLBW; less than 1500 g) who profited from modern neonatal intensive care are now in young adulthood. The literature shows that VLBW children achieve on average lower scores on cognitive tests, even after exclusion of individuals with obvious neurosensory deficits. Evidence also exists for an increased risk in VLBW children for various neuropsychiatric disorders such as attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and related behavioral symptoms. Up till now, studies extending into adulthood are sparse, and it remains to be seen whether these problems persist into adulthood. The aim of this thesis was to study ADHD-related symptoms and cognitive and executive functioning in young adults born at VLBW. In addition, we aimed to study sleep disturbances, known to adversely affect both cognition and attention. We hypothesized that preterm birth at VLBW interferes with early brain development in a way that alters the neuropsychological phenotype; this may manifest itself as ADHD symptoms and impaired cognitive abilities in young adulthood. In this cohort study from a geographically defined region, we studied 166 VLBW adults and 172 term-born controls born from 1978 through 1985. At ages 18 to 27 years, the study participants took part in a clinic study during which their physical and psychological health was assessed in detail. Three years later, 213 of these individuals participated in a follow-up. The current study is part of a larger research project (The Helsinki Study of Very Low Birth Weight Adults), and the measurements of interest for this particular study include the following: 1) The Adult Problem Questionnaire (APQ), a self-rating scale of ADHD-related symptoms in adults; 2) A computerized cognitive test battery designed for population studies (CogState®) which measures core cognitive abilities such as reaction time, working memory, and visual learning; 3) Sleep assessment by actigraphy, the Basic Nordic Sleep Questionnaire, and the Morningness-Eveningness Questionnaire. Actigraphs are wrist-worn accelerometers that separate sleep from wakefulness by registering body movements. Contrary to expectations, VLBW adults as a group reported no more ADHD-related behavioral symptoms than did controls. Further subdivision of the VLBW group into SGA (small for gestational age) and AGA (appropriate for gestational age) subgroups, however, revealed more symptoms on ADHD subscales pertaining to executive dysfunction and emotional instability among those born SGA. Thus, it seems that intrauterine growth retardation (for which SGA served as a proxy) is a more essential predictor for self-perceived ADHD symptoms in adulthood than is VLBW birth as such. In line with observations from other cohorts, the VLBW adults reported less risk-taking behavior in terms of substance use (alcohol, smoking, and recreational drugs), a finding reassuring for the VLBW individuals and their families. On the cognitive test, VLBW adults free from neurosensory deficits had longer reaction times than did term-born peers on all tasks included in the test battery, and lower accuracy on the learning task, with no discernible effect of SGA status over and above the effect of VLBW. Altogether, on a group level, even high-functioning VLBW adults show subtle deficits in psychomotor processing speed, visual working memory, and learning abilities. The sleep studies provided no evidence for differences in sleep quality or duration between the two groups. The VLBW adults were, however, at more than two-fold higher risk for sleep-disordered breathing (in terms of chronic snoring). Given the link between sleep-disordered breathing and health sequelae, these results suggest that VLBW individuals may benefit from an increased awareness among clinicians of this potential problem area. An unexpected finding from the sleep studies was the suggestion of an advanced sleep phase: The VLBW adults went to bed earlier according to the actigraphy registrations and also reported earlier wake-up times on the questionnaire. In further study of this issue in conjunction with the follow-up three years later, the VLBW group reported higher levels of morningness propensity, further corroborating the preliminary findings of an advanced sleep phase. Although the clinical implications are not entirely clear, the issue may be worth further study, since circadian rhythms are closely related to health and well-being. In sum, we believe that increased understanding of long-term outcomes after VLBW, and identification of areas and subgroups that are particularly vulnerable, will allow earlier recognition of potential problems and ultimately lead to improved prevention strategies.

Modern Societal Impulses and their Nordic Manifestations : On Emancipation and Constraint in Societal Development

The 1980s and the early 1990s have proved to be an important turning point in the history of the Nordic welfare states. After this breaking point, the Nordic social order has been built upon a new foundation. This study shows that the new order is mainly built upon new hierarchies and control mechanisms that have been developed consistently through economic and labour market policy measures. During the post-war period Nordic welfare states to an increasing extent created equality of opportunity and scope for agency among people. Public social services were available for all and the tax-benefit system maintained a level income distribution. During this golden era of Nordic welfare state, the scope for agency was, however, limited by social structures. Public institutions and law tended to categorize people according to their life circumstances ascribing them a predefined role. In the 1980s and 1990s this collectivist social order began to mature and it became subject to political renegotiation. Signs of a new social order in the Nordic countries have included the liberation of the financial markets, the privatizing of public functions and redefining the role of the public sector. It is now possible to reassess the ideological foundations of this new order. As a contrast to widely used political rhetoric, the foundation of the new order has not been the ideas of individual freedom or choice. Instead, the most important aim appears to have been to control and direct people to act in accordance with the rules of the market. The various levels of government and the social security system have been redirected to serve this goal. Instead of being a mechanism for redistributing income, the Nordic social security system has been geared towards creating new hierarchies on the Nordic labour markets. During the past decades, conditions for receiving income support and unemployment benefit have been tightened in all Nordic countries. As a consequence, people have been forced to accept deteriorating terms and conditions on the labour market. Country-specific variations exist, however: in sum Sweden has been most conservative, Denmark most innovative and Finland most radical in reforming labour market policy. The new hierarchies on the labour market have co-incided with slow or non-existent growth of real wages and with a strong growth of the share of capital income. Slow growth of real wages has kept inflation low and thus secured the value of capital. Societal development has thus progressed from equality of opportunity during the age of the welfare states towards a hierarchical social order where the majority of people face increasing constraints and where a fortunate minority enjoys prosperity and security.

Maximum Loss Calculation using Scenario Analysis, Heavy Tails and Implied Volatility Patterns

The objective of this paper is to improve option risk monitoring by examining the information content of implied volatility and by introducing the calculation of a single-sum expected risk exposure similar to the Value-at-Risk. The figure is calculated in two steps. First, there is a need to estimate the value of a portfolio of options for a number of different market scenarios, while the second step is to summarize the information content of the estimated scenarios into a single-sum risk measure. This involves the use of probability theory and return distributions, which confronts the user with the problems of non-normality in the return distribution of the underlying asset. Here the hyperbolic distribution is used to describe one alternative for dealing with heavy tails. Results indicate that the information content of implied volatility is useful when predicting future large returns in the underlying asset. Further, the hyperbolic distribution provides a good fit to historical returns enabling a more accurate definition of statistical intervals and extreme events.

Climatic adaptation of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karsten) in Finland based on male flowering phenology.

Anthesis was studied at the canopy level in 10 Norway spruce stands from 9 localities in Finland from 1963 to 1974. Distributions of pollen catches were compared to the normal Gaussian distribution. The basis for the timing studies was the 50 per cent point of the anthesis-fitted normal distribution. Development up to this point was given in calendar days, in degree days (>5 °C) and in period units. The count of each parameter began on March 19 (included). Male flowering in Norway spruce stands was found to have more annual variation in quantity than in Scots pine stands studied earlier. Anthesis in spruce in northern Finland occurred at a later date than in the south. The heat sums needed for anthesis varied latitudinally less in spruce than in pine. The variation of pollen catches in spruce increased towards north-west as in the case of Scots pine. In the unprocessed data, calendar days were found to be the most accurate forecast of anthesis in Norway spruce both for a single year and for the majority of cases of stand averages over several years. Locally, the period unit could be a more accurate parameter for the stand average. However, on a calendar day basis, when annual deviations between expected and measured heat sums were converted to days, period units were narrowly superior to days. The geographical correlations respect to timing of flowering, calculated against distances measured along simulated post-glacial migration routes, were stronger than purely latitudinal correlations. Effects of the reinvasion of Norway spruce into Finland are thus still visible in spruce populations just as they were in Scots pine populations. The proportion of the average annual heat sum needed for spruce anthesis grew rapidly north of a latitude of ca. 63° and the heat sum needed for anthesis decreased only slighty towards the timberline. In light of flowering phenology, it seems probable that the northwesterly third of Finnish Norway spruce populations are incompletely adapted to the prevailing cold climate. A moderate warming of the climate would therefore be beneficial for Norway spruce. This accords roughly with the adaptive situation in Scots pine.

Effect of soil preparation of boreal spruce forest on air and soil temperature conditions in forest regeneration areas.

The effect of scarification, ploughing and cross-directional plouhing on temperature conditions in the soil and adjacent air layer have been studied during 11 consecutive growth periods by using an unprepared clear-cut area as a control site. The maximum and minimum temperatures were measured daily in the summer months, and other temperature observations were made at four-hour intervals by means of a Grant measuring instrument. The development of the seedling stand was also followed in order to determine its shading effect on the soil surface. Soil preparation decreased the daily temperature amplitude of the air at the height of 10 cm. The maximum temperatures on sunny days were lower in the tilts of the ploughed and in the humps of the cross-directional ploughed sites compared with the unprepared area. Correspondingly, the night temperatures were higher and so the soil preparation considerably reduced the risk of night frost. In the soil at the depth of 5 cm, soil preparation increased daytime temperatures and reduced night temperatures compared with unprepared area. The maximum increase in monthly mean temperatures was almost 5 °C, and the daily variation in the surface parts of the tilts and humps increased so that excessively high temperatures for the optimal growth of the root system were measured from time to time. The temperature also rose at the depths of 50 and 100 cm. Soil preparation also increased the cumulative temperature sum. The highest sums accumulated during the summer months were recorded at the depth of 5 cm in the humps of cross-directional ploughed area (1127 dd.) and in the tilts of the ploughed area (1106 dd.), while the corresponding figure in the unprepared soil was 718 dd. At the height of 10 cm the highest temperature sum was 1020 dd. in the hump, the corresponding figure in the unprepared area being 925 dd. The incidence of high temperature amplitudes and percentage of high temperatures at the depth of 5 cm decreased most rapidly in the humps of cross-directional ploughed area and in the ploughing tilts towards the end of the measurement period. The decrease was attributed principally to the compressing of tilts, the ground vegetation succession and the growth of seedlings. The mean summer temperature in the unprepared area was lower than in the prepared area and the difference did not diminish during the period studied. The increase in temperature brought about by soil preparation thus lasts at least more than 10 years.

Estimation of cutting volume with three inventory methods for harvest planning in Canadian boreal forests.

Two methods of pre-harvest inventory were designed and tested on three cutting sites containing a total of 197 500 m3 of wood. These sites were located on flat-ground boreal forests located in northwestern Quebec. Both methods studied involved scaling of trees harvested to clear the road path one year (or more) prior to harvest of adjacent cut-blocks. The first method (ROAD) considers the total road right-of-way volume divided by the total road area cleared. The resulting volume per hectare is then multiplied by the total cut-block area scheduled for harvest during the following year to obtain the total estimated cutting volume. The second method (STRATIFIED) also involves scaling of trees cleared from the road. However, in STRATIFIED, log scaling data are stratified by forest stand location. A volume per hectare is calculated for each stretch of road that crosses a single forest stand. This volume per hectare is then multiplied by the remaining area of the same forest stand scheduled for harvest one year later. The sum of all resulting estimated volumes per stand gives the total estimated cutting-volume for all cut-blocks adjacent to the studied road. A third method (MNR) was also used to estimate cut-volumes of the sites studied. This method represents the actual existing technique for estimating cutting volume in the province of Quebec. It involves summing the cut volume for all forest stands. The cut volume is estimated by multiplying the area of each stand by its estimated volume per hectare obtained from standard stock tables provided by the governement. The resulting total estimated volume per cut-block for all three methods was then compared with the actual measured cut-block volume (MEASURED). This analysis revealed a significant difference between MEASURED and MNR methods with the MNR volume estimate being 30 % higher than MEASURED. However, no significant difference from MEASURED was observed for volume estimates for the ROAD and STRATIFIED methods which respectively had estimated cutting volumes 19 % and 5 % lower than MEASURED. Thus the ROAD and STRATIFIED methods are good ways to estimate cut-block volumes after road right-of-way harvest for conditions similar to those examined in this study.

Differences in the climatic adaptation of silver birch (Betula pendula) and downy birch (B. pubescens) in Finland based on male flowering phenology.

Male flowering was studied at the canopy level in 10 silver birch (Betula pendula Roth) stands from 8 localities and in 14 downy birch (B. pubescens Ehrh.) stands from 10 localities in Finland from 1963 to 1973. Distributions of cumulative pollen catches were compared to the normal Gaussian distribution. The basis for the timing of flowering was the 50 per cent point of the anthesis-fitted normal distribution. To eliminate effects of background pollen, only the central, normally distributed part of the cumulative distribution was used. Development up to the median point of the distribution was measured and tested in calendar days, in degree days (> 5 °C) and in period units. The count of each parameter began on and included March 19. Male flowering in silver birch occurred from late April to late June depending on latitude, and flowering in downy birch took place from early May to early July. The heat sums needed for male flowering varied in downy birch stands latitudinally but there was practically no latitudinal variation in heat sums needed for silver birch flowering. The amount of male flowering in stands of both birch species were found to have a large annual variation but without any clear periodicity. The between years pollen catch variation in stands of either birch species did not show any significant latitudinal correlation in contrast to Norway spruce stands. The period unit heat sum gave the most accurate forecast of the timing of flowering for 60 per cent of the silver birch stands and for 78.6 per cent of the for downy birch stands. Calendar days, however, gave the best forecast for silver birch in 25 per cent of the cases, while degree days gave the best forecast for downy birch in 21.4 per cent of the cases. Silver birch seems to have a local inclination for a more fixed flowering date compared to downy birch, which could mean a considerable photoperiodic influence on flowering time of silver birch. Silver birch and downy birch had different geographical correlations. Frequent hybridization of birch species occurs more often in northern Finland in than in more southern latitudes. The different timing in flowering caused increasing scatter in flowering times in the north, especially in the case of downy birch. The chance of simultaneous flowering of silver birch and downy birch so increased northwards due to a more variable climate and also higher altitudinal variations. Compared with conifers, the reproduction cycles of both birch species were found to be well protected from damage by frost.

An Examination of How Entrepreneurs Can Improve Their Position in Relation to Investors

Previous research has been inconclusive regarding the impact of those who invest in entrepreneurs. Consider for a moment how potentially important they are to entrepreneurs. They for example decide who deserves funding, how much time they contribute to their portfolio firms, how they grant entrepreneurs access to their networks, and help entrepreneurs acquire additional funding. In sum, investors potentially have a great impact on the success of entrepreneurs. It is therefore important that we better understand the environment, relationships and context in which parties operate. This thesis contains five articles that explore investors’ and entrepreneurs’ relationships from various viewpoints, in theoretical frameworks, and use a variety of data and research methods. The first article is a literature review that summarises what we know of venture capital, business angel and corporate venture capital funding. The second article studies the entrepreneurs’ investor selection process, its consequences, and identifies key factors that influence the process. Earlier, the common approach has been to concentrate research on the investors’ selection policy, not the entrepreneurs’. The data and conclusions are based on multiple case studies. The article analyses how entrepreneurs can ensure that they get the best possible investor, when it is possible for an entrepreneur to select an investor, and what are the consequences of investor selection. The third article employs power constructs (dependency, power balance/imbalance, power sources) and analyses their applicability in the investor-entrepreneur relationship. Power constructs are extensively studied and utilised in the management and organisation literature. In entrepreneur investor relationships, power aspects are rarely analysed. However, having the ability to “get others to do things they would not otherwise do” is a very common factor in the investor-entrepreneur relationship. Therefore, employing and analysing the applicability of power constructs in this setting is well founded. The article is based on a single case study but suggests that power constructs could be applicable and consequently provide additional insights into the investor-entrepreneur relationship. The fourth article studies the role of advisors in the venture capital investment process and analyses implications for research and practice, particularly from the entrepreneurs’ perspective. The common entrepreneurial finance literature describes the entrepreneur-investor relationship as linear and bilateral. However, it was discovered that advisors may influence the relationship. In this article, the role of advisors, operating procedures and advisors’ impact on different parties is analysed. The fifth article concentrates on investors’ certification effect. The article measures and demonstrates that venture capital investment is likely to increase the credibility (in terms of media attention) of early stage firms, those that most often need additional credibility. Understanding investor certification can affect how entrepreneurs evaluate investment offers and how investors can make their offers appear more lucrative.

Intraspecific variation in brain size and architecture : population divergence and phenotypic plasticity

Brain size and architecture exhibit great evolutionary and ontogenetic variation. Yet, studies on population variation (within a single species) in brain size and architecture, or in brain plasticity induced by ecologically relevant biotic factors have been largely overlooked. Here, I address the following questions: (i) do locally adapted populations differ in brain size and architecture, (ii) can the biotic environment induce brain plasticity, and (iii) do locally adapted populations differ in levels of brain plasticity? In the first two chapters I report large variation in both absolute and relative brain size, as well as in the relative sizes of brain parts, among divergent nine-spined stickleback (Pungitius pungitius) populations. Some traits show habitat-dependent divergence, implying natural selection being responsible for the observed patterns. Namely, marine sticklebacks have relatively larger bulbi olfactorii (chemosensory centre) and telencephala (involved in learning) than pond sticklebacks. Further, I demonstrate the importance of common garden studies in drawing firm evolutionary conclusions. In the following three chapters I show how the social environment and perceived predation risk shapes brain development. In common frog (Rana temporaria) tadpoles, I demonstrate that under the highest per capita predation risk, tadpoles develop smaller brains than in less risky situations, while high tadpole density results in enlarged tectum opticum (visual brain centre). Visual contact with conspecifics induces enlarged tecta optica in nine-spined sticklebacks, whereas when only olfactory cues from conspecifics are available, bulbus olfactorius become enlarged.Perceived predation risk results in smaller hypothalami (complex function) in sticklebacks. Further, group-living has a negative effect on relative brain size in the competition-adapted pond sticklebacks, but not in the predation-adapted marine sticklebacks. Perceived predation risk induces enlargement of bulbus olfactorius in pond sticklebacks, but not in marine sticklebacks who have larger bulbi olfactorii than pond fish regardless of predation. In sum, my studies demonstrate how applying a microevolutionary approach can help us to understand the enormous variation observed in the brains of wild animals a point-of-view which I high-light in the closing review chapter of my thesis.

Monologeista dialogiksi : Keskustelua koulusta käytävien ohipuhumisten muuttamisesta neuvotteluksi sosiaalisen konstruktionismin hengessä.

From monologues to dialogue. A discussion about changing the fragmented character of the debate concerning schools to one of negotiation, in the spirit of social constructionism. The starting point for the study is the assumption that the interested parties concerning schools such as teachers, students, public servants within school administration or politics construct the idea of the school in disparate ways. It looks as if the representatives of the various interested parties perceive the school in distinctive ways or with particular emphases. Additionally, there are not many discussion forums where these different interested parties have an equal right to speak and be heard. It seems that the lack of dialogue characterizes the debate about school. At the centre of the study are negotiations concerning schools, and the conditions that promote changing the fragmented character of this school debate in a more promising and collectively responsible process of negotiation. The aims of the study are to find both an empirical and theoretical basis for more equal ways to negotiate about school, and to increase cultural self reflection. Social constructionism plays a key role in aspiring to meet these research aims. The research questions are (1) How do the informants of the study construct the idea of school in their texts, and (2) What kind of prospects does social constructionism bring to the negotiations about school. The research informants construct the idea of school in their texts in several ways. To sum up: school is constructed as a place for learning, a place for building the future, a place where ethical education is lived out, a place for social education and Bildung, and a place where the students well-being is ensured. The previously presented assumption that the interested parties of a school construct the idea of a school in disparate ways or with various emphases seems to have support in the informants texts. Based on that, a condition can be put forward: different perspectives should have an equal opportunity to be heard in negotiations about school. It would also be helpful if there was a chance for different perspectives to be documented and/or in some way, visualized. This ensures that different constructions of school are within reach of all the participants. Additionally, while making the process of negotiation transparent, this documentation becomes an important medium for self reflection. On one hand it visualizes the complexity of the school. On the other hand it protects the school and education from serving as the spokesman of any single truth that is presented as objective or universal. Social constructionism seems to offer a stable theoretical basis for changing the fragmented character of the school debate in one of negotiation. More equal and collectively responsible school negotiation presumes that certain aspects or conditions drawn from postmodernism and social constructionism have been studied. In the study, six conditions are presented that can be seen as mediums for changing the fragmented character of the school debate into one of more equal negotiation. Keywords: social constructionism, Kenneth J. Gergen, school negotiation, education policy, dialogue.

Lumettoman maan routaolojen mallintaminen ja ennustettavuus muuttuvassa ilmastossa

Raportissa on arvioitu ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutusta Suomen maaperän talviaikaiseen jäätymiseen lämpösummien perusteella. Laskelmat kuvaavat roudan paksuutta nimenomaisesti lumettomilla alueilla, esimerkiksi teillä, joilta satanut lumi aurataan pois. Luonnossa lämpöä eristävän lumipeitteen alla routaa on ohuemmin kuin tällaisilla lumettomilla alueilla. Toisaalta luonnollisessa ympäristössä paikalliset erot korostuvat johtuen mm. maalajeista ja kasvillisuudesta. Roudan paksuudet laskettiin ensin perusjakson 1971–2000 ilmasto-oloissa talviaikaisten säähavaintotietoihin pohjautuvien lämpötilojen perusteella. Sen jälkeen laskelmat toistettiin kolmelle tulevalle ajanjaksolle (2010–2039, 2040–2069 ja 2070–2099) kohottamalla lämpötiloja ilmastonmuutosmallien ennustamalla tavalla. Laskelman pohjana käytettiin 19 ilmastomallin A1B-skenaarioajojen keskimäärin simuloimaa lämpötilan muutosta. Tulosten herkkyyden arvioimiseksi joitakin laskelmia tehtiin myös tätä selvästi heikompaa ja voimakkaampaa lämpenemisarviota käyttäen. A1B-skenaarion mukaisen lämpötilan nousun toteutuessa nykyisiä mallituloksia vastaavasti routakerros ohenee sadan vuoden aikana Pohjois-Suomessa 30–40 %, suuressa osassa maan keski- ja eteläosissa 50–70 %. Jo lähivuosikymmeninä roudan ennustetaan ohentuvan 10–30 %, saaristossa enemmän. Mikäli lämpeneminen toteutuisi voimakkaimman tarkastellun vaihtoehdon mukaisesti, roudan syvyys pienenisi tätäkin enemmän. Roudan paksuuden vuosienvälistä vaihtelua ja sen muuttumista tulevaisuudessa pyrittiin myös arvioimaan. Leutoina talvina routa ohenee enemmän kuin normaaleina tai ankarina pakkastalvina. Päivittäistä sään vaihtelua simuloineen säägeneraattorin tuottamassa aineistoissa esiintyi kuitenkin liian vähän hyvin alhaisia ja hyvin korkeita lämpötiloja. Siksi näitten lämpötilatietojen pohjalta laskettu roudan paksuuskin ilmeisesti vaihtelee liian vähän vuodesta toiseen. Kelirikkotilanteita voi esiintyä myös kesken routakauden, jos useamman päivän suojasää ja samanaikainen runsas vesisade pääsevät sulattamaan maata. Tällaiset routakauden aikana sattuvat säätilat näyttävätkin yleistyvän lähivuosikymmeninä. Vuosisadan loppua kohti ne sen sijaan maan eteläosissa jälleen vähenevät, koska routakausi lyhenee oleellisesti. Tulevia vuosikymmeniä koskevien ilmastonmuutosennusteiden ohella routaa ja kelirikon esiintymistä on periaatteessa mahdollista ennustaa myös lähiaikojen sääennusteita hyödyntäen. Pitkät, viikkojen tai kuukausien mittaiset sääennusteet eivät tosin ole ainakaan vielä erityisen luotettavia, mutta myös lyhyemmistä ennusteista voisi olla hyötyä mm. tienpitoa suunniteltaessa.

Jos olisin viisas niin siivoisin : Lasten luovat prosessit päiväkodissa

It has been found usually to talk in the early childhood education in connection with the creativity about arts and skills and about play. In this treatise, the creativity is approached besides play but also from the point of view of the creativity of the everyday. The starting point for the study is the view according to which the creativity is complex interaction between a creative person and an environment. The theoretical body of the study is the Componential theory of creativity of Amabile (1996). The process which is open and product which is new and suitable or acceptable were defined creative. In the opinion of many researchers, the creativity is a phenomenon that has determined in a certain time and place so the creativity is examined from the point of view of the social constructionism. As creative processes in the day nursery it has been defined pretend play, child´s involvement and children´s agentive perception which is based on the Children´s agentive perception theory of Reunamo (2007). The purpose of the study is to clarify how the child's personal factors and the social environment affect the creative processes of children in the day nursery. This Master's thesis is based on the Children' s agentive perception uncovered study led by Jyrki Reunamo (2010) which was carried out in the spring of 2010 in Keski-Uusimaa and in Hämeenlinna and Taiwan. From the study, a name has also been used "on the sources of Orientation", a research project and development project. The study includes the children's evaluation sector, the observation sector, the children's interview sector and the evaluation sector of the pedagogic environment. 891 Children 1-7 year-old by age participated in the study. All the sectors which belong to the study of Reunamo were utilized in this treatise and the Finnish day nurseries or preschool groups which had participated in the study were marked off as the target group. The main component analysis, sum variables, the correlation coefficients, Mann-Whitney s U-test and Kruskall-Wallas test were used for the statistical examination of the quantitative material. In this treatise it was noticed, both the personal properties of the child and a social environment, that they affected all the examined creative processes which also had a significant connection with each other statistically. The definition of creativity was filled best by the participative answers. However, the number of the participative answers was only 8% in the questions concerning adults. That raised the question whether an attempt should be made to have effect so that the children's better participation also in the interaction with the adults would be possible in the educational culture of the day nursery. In the further study, the conscious building of the social environment which supports the creativity from a social constructionism point of view could indeed be an interesting task. The treatise is suitable for an examination of the interaction between the child's person and a social environment especially from the point of view of the creativity.