37 resultados para LOGISTIC REGRESSION
Resumo:
Vegetation maps and bioclimatic zone classifications communicate the vegetation of an area and are used to explain how the environment regulates the occurrence of plants on large scales. Many practises and methods for dividing the world’s vegetation into smaller entities have been presented. Climatic parameters, floristic characteristics, or edaphic features have been relied upon as decisive factors, and plant species have been used as indicators for vegetation types or zones. Systems depicting vegetation patterns that mainly reflect climatic variation are termed ‘bioclimatic’ vegetation maps. Based on these it has been judged logical to deduce that plants moved between corresponding bioclimatic areas should thrive in the target location, whereas plants moved from a different zone should languish. This principle is routinely applied in forestry and horticulture but actual tests of the validity of bioclimatic maps in this sense seem scanty. In this study I tested the Finnish bioclimatic vegetation zone system (BZS). Relying on the plant collection of Helsinki University Botanic Garden’s Kumpula collection, which according to the BZS is situated at the northern limit of the hemiboreal zone, I aimed to test how the plants’ survival depends on their provenance. My expectation was that plants from the hemiboreal or southern boreal zones should do best in Kumpula, whereas plants from more southern and more northern zones should show progressively lower survival probabilities. I estimated probability of survival using collection database information of plant accessions of known wild origin grown in Kumpula since the mid 1990s, and logistic regression models. The total number of accessions I included in the analyses was 494. Because of problems with some accessions I chose to separately analyse a subset of the complete data, which included 379 accessions. I also analysed different growth forms separately in order to identify differences in probability of survival due to different life strategies. In most analyses accessions of temperate and hemiarctic origin showed lower survival probability than those originating from any of the boreal subzones, which among them exhibited rather evenly high probabilities. Exceptionally mild and wet winters during the study period may have killed off hemiarctic plants. Some winters may have been too harsh for temperate accessions. Trees behaved differently: they showed an almost steadily increasing survival probability from temperate to northern boreal origins. Various factors that could not be controlled for may have affected the results, some of which were difficult to interpret. This was the case in particular with herbs, for which the reliability of the analysis suffered because of difficulties in managing their curatorial data. In all, the results gave some support to the BZS, and especially its hierarchical zonation. However, I question the validity of the formulation of the hypothesis I tested since it may not be entirely justified by the BZS, which was designed for intercontinental comparison of vegetation zones, but not specifically for transcontinental provenance trials. I conclude that botanic gardens should pay due attention to information management and curational practices to ensure the widest possible applicability of their plant collections.
Assessment of insect occurrence in boreal forests based on satellite imagery and field measurements.
Resumo:
The presence/absence data of twenty-seven forest insect taxa (e.g. Retinia resinella, Formica spp., Pissodes spp., several scolytids) and recorded environmental variation were used to investigate the applicability of modelling insect occurrence based on satellite imagery. The sampling was based on 1800 sample plots (25 m by 25 m) placed along the sides of 30 equilateral triangles (side 1 km) in a fragmented forest area (approximately 100 km2) in Evo, S Finland. The triangles were overlaid on land use maps interpreted from satellite images (Landsat TM 30 m multispectral scanner imagery 1991) and digitized geological maps. Insect occurrence was explained using either environmental variables measured in the field or those interpreted from the land use and geological maps. The fit of logistic regression models varied between species, possibly because some species may be associated with the characteristics of single trees while other species with stand characteristics. The occurrence of certain insect species at least, especially those associated with Scots pine, could be relatively accurately assessed indirectly on the basis of satellite imagery and geological maps. Models based on both remotely sensed and geological data better predicted the distribution of forest insects except in the case of Xylechinus pilosus, Dryocoetes sp. and Trypodendron lineatum, where the differences were relatively small in favour of the models based on field measurements. The number of species was related to habitat compartment size and distance from the habitat edge calculated from the land use maps, but logistic regressions suggested that other environmental variables in general masked the effect of these variables in species occurrence at the present scale.
Resumo:
Questions of the small size of non-industrial private forest (NIPF) holdings in Finland are considered and factors affecting their partitioning are analyzed. This work arises out of Finnish forest policy statements in which the small average size of holdings has been seen to have a negative influence on the economics of forestry. A survey of the literature indicates that the size of holdings is an important factor determining the costs of logging and silvicultural operations, while its influence on the timber supply is slight. The empirical data are based on a sample of 314 holdings collected by interviewing forest owners in the years 1980-86. In 1990-91 the same holdings were resurveyed by means of a postal inquiry and partly by interviewing forest owners. The principal objective in compiling the data is to assist in quantifying ownership factors that influence partitioning among different kinds of NIPF holdings. Thus the mechanism of partitioning were described and a maximum likelihood logistic regression model was constructed using seven independent holding and ownership variables. One out of four holdings had undergone partitioning in conjunction with a change in ownership, one fifth among family owned holdings and nearly a half among jointly owned holdings. The results of the logistic regression model indicate, for instance, that the odds on partitioning is about three times greater for jointly owned holdings than for family owned ones. Also, the probabilities of partitioning were estimated and the impact of independent dichotomous variables on the probability of partitioning ranged between 0.02 and 0.10. The low value of the Hosmer-Lemeshow test statistic indicates a good fit of the model and the rate of correct classification was estimated to be 88 per cent with a cutoff point of 0.5. The average size of holdings undergoing ownership changes decreased from 29.9 ha to 28.7 ha over the approximate interval 1983-90. In addition, the transition probability matrix showed that the trends towards smaller size categories mostly involved in the small size categories, less than 20 ha. The results of the study can be used in considering the effects of the small size of holdings for forestry and if the purpose is to influence partitioning through forest or rural policy.
Resumo:
Cow s milk allergy (CMA) affects about 2-6% of infants and young children. Environmental factors during early life are suggested to play a role in the development of allergic diseases. One of these factors is likely to be maternal diet during pregnancy and lactation. The association between maternal diet and development of CMA in offspring is not well known, but diet could contain factors that facilitate development of tolerance. After an established food allergy, another issue is gaining tolerance towards an antigen that causes symptoms. The strictness of the elimination depends on the individual level of tolerance. This study aimed at validating a questionnaire used to inquire about food allergies in children, at researching associations between maternal diet during pregnancy and lactation and subsequent development of cow s milk allergy in the offspring, and at evaluating the degree of adherence to a therapeutic elimination diet of children with CMA and factors associated with the adherence and age of recovery. These research questions were addressed in a prospective birth cohort born between 1997 and 2004 at the Tampere and Oulu University Hospitals. Altogether 6753 children of the Diabetes Prediction and Prevention (DIPP) Nutrition cohort were investigated. Questionnaires regarding allergic diseases are often used in studies without validation. High-quality valid tools are therefore needed. Two validation studies were conducted here: one by comparing parentally reported food allergies with information gathered from patient records of 1122 children, and the other one by comparing parentally reported CMA with information in the reimbursement records of special infant formulae in the registers of the Social Insurance Institution for 6753 children. Both of these studies showed that the questionnaire works well and is a valid tool for measuring food allergies in children. In the first validation study, Cohen s kappa values were within 0.71-0.88 for CMA, 0.74-0.82 for cereal allergy, and 0.66-0.86 for any reported food allergy. In the second validation study, the kappa value was 0.79, sensitivity 0.958, and specificity 0.965 for reported and diagnosed CMA. To investigate the associations between maternal diet during pregnancy and lactation and CMA in offspring, 6288 children were studied. Maternal diet during pregnancy (8th month) and lactation (3rd month) was assessed by a validated, 181-item semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire (FFQ), and as an endpoint register-based information on diagnosed CMA was obtained from the Social Insurance Institution and complemented with parental reports of CMA in their children. The associations between maternal food consumption and CMA in offspring were analyzed by logistic regression comparing the highest and lowest quarters with two middle quarters of consumption and adjusted for several potential confounding factors. High maternal intake of milk products (OR 0.56, 95% CI 0.37-0.86 p = 0.002) was associated with a lower risk of CMA in offspring. When stratified according to maternal allergic rhinitis or asthma, a protective association of high use of milk products with CMA was seen in children of allergy-free mothers (OR 0.30, 95% CI 0.13 - 0.69, p < 0.001), but not in children of allergic mothers. Moreover, low maternal consumption of fish during pregnancy was associated with a higher risk of CMA in children of mothers with allergic rhinitis or asthma (OR 1.47, 95% CI 0.96 - 2.27 for the lowest quarter, p = 0.043). In children of nonallergic mothers, this association was not seen. Maternal diet during lactation was not associated with CMA in offspring, apart from an inverse association between citrus and kiwi fruit consumption and CMA. These results imply that maternal diet during pregnancy may contain factors protective against CMA in offspring, more so than maternal diet during lactation. These results need to be confirmed in other studies before giving recommendations to the public. To evaluate the degree of adherence to a therapeutic elimination diet in children with diagnosed CMA, food records of 267 children were studied. Subsequent food records were examined to assess the age at reintroduction of milk products to the child s diet. Nine of ten families adhered to the elimination diet of the child with extreme accuracy. Older and monosensitized children had more often small amounts of cow s milk protein in their diet (p < 0.001 for both). Adherence to the diet was not related to any other sociodemographic factor studied or to the age at reintroduction of milk products to the diet. Low intakes of vitamin D, calcium, and riboflavin are of concern in children following a cow s milk-free diet. In summary, we found that the questionnaires used in the DIPP study are valid in investigating CMA in young children; that there are associations between maternal diet during pregnancy and lactation and the development of CMA in offspring; and that the therapeutic elimination diet in children with diagnosed CMA is rigorously adhered to.
Resumo:
Physical inactivity has become a major threat to public health worldwide. The Finnish health and welfare policies emphasize that the working population should maintain good health and functioning until their normal retirement age and remain in good health and independence later in life. Health behaviours like physical activity potentially play an important role in reaching this target as physical activity contributes to better physical fitness and to reduced risk of major chronic diseases. The aim of this study was to examine first whether the volume and intensity of leisure-time physical activity impacts on subsequent physical health functioning, sickness absence and disability retirement. The second aim was to examine changes in leisure-time physical activity of moderate and vigorous intensity after transition to retirement. This study is part of the ongoing Helsinki Health Study. The baseline data were collected by questionnaires in 2000 - 02 among the employees of the City of Helsinki aged 40 to 60. The follow-up survey data were collected in 2007. Data on sickness absence were obtained from the employer s (City of Helsinki) sickness absence registers and pension data were obtained from the Finnish Centre for Pensions. Leisure-time physical activity was measured in four grades of intensity and classified according to physical activity recommendations considering both the volume and intensity of physical activity. Statistical techniques including analysis of covariance, logistic regression, Cox proportional hazards models and Poisson regression were used. Employees who were vigorously active during leisure time especially had better physical health functioning than those physically inactive. High physical activity in particular contributed to the maintenance of good physical health functioning. High physical activity also reduced the risk of subsequent sickness absences as well as the risk of all-cause disability retirement and retirement due to musculoskeletal and mental causes. Among those transferred to old-age retirement moderate-intensity leisure-time physical activity increased on average by more than half an hour per week and in addition the occurrence of physical inactivity reduced. Such changes were not observed among those remained employed and those transferred to disability retirement. This prospective cohort study provided novel results on the effects of leisure-time physical activity on health related functioning and changes in leisure-time physical activity after retirement. Although the benefits of moderate-intensity physical activity for health are well known these results suggest the importance of vigorous physical activity for subsequent health related functioning. Thus vigorous physical activity to enhance fitness should be given more emphasis from a public health perspective. In addition, physical activity should be encouraged among those who are about to retire.
Resumo:
Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a worldwide health problem, with adverse outcomes of cardiovascular disease and premature death. The ageing of populations along with the growing prevalence of chronic diseases such as diabetes and hypertension is leading to worldwide increase in the number of CKD patients. It has become evident that inflammation plays an important role in the pathogenesis of atherosclerosis complications. CKD patients also have an increased risk of atherosclerosis complications (including myocardial infarction, sudden death to cardiac arrhythmia, cerebrovascular accidents, and peripheral vascular disease). In line with this, oral and dental problems can be an important source of systemic inflammation. A decline in oral health may potentially act as an early marker of systemic disease progression. This series of studies examined oral health of CKD patients from predialysis, to dialysis and kidney transplantation in a 10-year follow-up study and in a cross-sectional study of predialysis CKD patients. Patients had clinical and radiographic oral and dental examination, resting and stimulated saliva flow rates were measured, whilst the biochemical and microbiological composition of saliva was analyzed. Lifestyle and oral symptoms were recorded using a questionnaire, and blood parameters were collected from the hospital records. The hypothesis was that the oral health status, symptoms, sensations, salivary flow rates and salivary composition vary in different renal failure stages and depend on the etiology of the kidney disease. No statistically significant difference were seen in the longitudinal study in the clinical parameters. However, some saliva parameters after renal transplantation were significantly improved compared to levels at the predialysis stage. The urea concentration of saliva was high in all stages. The salivary and plasma urea concentrations followed a similar trend, showing the lowest values in kidney transplant patients. Levels of immunoglobulin (Ig) A, G and M all decreased significantly after kidney transplantation. Increased concentrations of IgA, IgG and IgM may reflect disintegration of the oral epithelium and are usually markers of poor general oral condition. In the cross-sectional investigation of predialysis CKD patients we compared oral health findings of diabetic nephropathy patients to those with other kidney disease than diabetes. The results showed eg. more dental caries and lower stimulated salivary flow rates in the diabetic patients. HbA1C values of the diabetic patients were significantly higher than those in the other kidney disease group. A statistically significant difference was observed in the number of drugs used daily in the diabetic nephropathy group than in the other kidney disease group. In the logistic regression analyses, age was the principal explanatory factor for high salivary total protein concentration, and for low unstimulated salivary flow. Poor dental health, severity of periodontal disease seemed to be an explanatory factor for high salivary albumin concentrations. Salivary urea levels were significantly linked with diabetic nephropathy and with serum urea concentrations. Contrary to our expectation, however, diabetic nephropathy did not seem to affect periodontal health more severely than the other kidney diseases. Although diabetes is known to associate with xerostomia and other oral symptoms, it did not seem to increase the prevalence of oral discomfort. In summary, this series of studies has provided new information regarding the oral health of CKD patients. As expected, the commencement of renal disease reflects in oral symptoms and signs. Diabetic nephropathy, in particular, appears to impart a requirement for special attention in the oral health care of patients suffering from this disease.
Resumo:
According to the literature and statistical figures, professional drivers constitute a high-risk group in traffic and should be investigated in connection with the factors related to safe driving. However, safety-related behaviours and outcomes among professional drivers have attracted very little attention from safety researchers. In addition, comparing different professional and non-professional driver groups in terms of critical on-the-road characteristics and outcomes has been indicated in the literature as being necessary for a more comprehensive understanding of driver groups and the nature of driving itself. The aim of the present study was to investigate professional driving from a safety climate stand point in relation to predominant driving-related factors and by considering the differences between driver groups. Hence, four Sub-studies were conducted according to a framework emphasizing the relationships between safety climate, driver groups, driver stress, human factors (i.e., driver behaviour and performance) and accidents. Demographic information, as well as data for driver behaviour, performance, and driver stress was collected by questionnaire. The data was analysed using factor analysis, analysis of covariance as well as hierarchical and logistic regression analysis. The results revealed multi-dimensional factor structures for the safety climate measures. Considering the relationships between variables, differences were evidenced regarding on-the-road stress reactions, risky driver behaviours and penalties, between the various professional and non-professional driver groups. Driver stress was found to be related to accidents. The results also indicated that the safety climate has positive relationships with both driver behaviour and performance, and as well as involvement in accidents. The present study has a number of critical implications resulting from the fact that the way in which the effects of safety climate on professional driving were investigated, as well as the differences between professional and non-professional driver groups, was unique. Additionally, for the first time, a safety climate scale was developed specifically for professional drivers. According to the results of the study and to previous literature, a tentative model was proposed representing a possible route for the relationships between safety climate, human factors, driver stress, driver groups and accidents, by emphasizing the effects of safety climate.