Political Risk in Credit Evaluation: Empirical Studies and Survey Results

Financing trade between economic agents located in different countries is affected by many types of risks, resulting from incomplete information about the debtor, the problems of enforcing international contracts, or the prevalence of political and financial crises. Trade is important for economic development and the availability of trade finance is essential, especially for developing countries. Relatively few studies treat the topic of political risk, particularly in the context of international lending. This thesis explores new ground to identify links between political risk and international debt defaults. The core hypothesis of the study is that the default probability of debt increases with increasing political risk in the country of the borrower. The thesis consists of three essays that support the hypothesis from different angles of the credit evaluation process. The first essay takes the point of view of an international lender assessing the credit risk of a public borrower. The second investigates creditworthiness assessment of companies. The obtained results are substantiated in the third essay that deals with an extensive political risk survey among finance professionals in developing countries. The financial instruments of core interest are export credit guaranteed debt initiated between the Export Credit Agency of Finland and buyers in 145 countries between 1975 and 2006. Default events of the foreign credit counterparts are conditioned on country-specific macroeconomic variables, corporate-specific accounting information as well as political risk indicators from various international sources. Essay 1 examines debt issued to government controlled institutions and conditions public default events on traditional macroeconomic fundamentals, in addition to selected political and institutional risk factors. Confirming previous research, the study finds country indebtedness and the GDP growth rate to be significant indicators of public default. Further, it is shown that public defaults respond to various political risk factors. However, the impact of the risk varies between countries at different stages of economic development. Essay 2 proceeds by investigating political risk factors as conveivable drivers of corporate default and uses traditional accounting variables together with new political risk indicators in the credit evaluation of private debtors. The study finds links between corporate default and leverage, as well as between corporate default and the general investment climate and measeures of conflict in the debtor country. Essay 3 concludes the thesis by offering survey evidence on the impact of political risk on debt default, as perceived and experienced by 103 finance professionals in 38 developing countries. Taken together, the results of the thesis suggest that various forms of political risk are associated with international debt defaults and continue to pose great concerns for both international creditors and borrowers in developing countries. The study provides new insights on the importance of variable selection in country risk analysis, and shows how political risk is actually perceived and experienced in the riskier, often lower income countries of the global economy.

Performance Persistence of International Stock Funds

People saving in mutual funds often look at historical performance before they decide which funds to invest in. The implicit assumption made is that superior performance is likely to be repeated in the future. The findings presented in this study, which investigates funds sold on the Swedish market, support such an approach provided that the time horizons are limited to one year. International stock funds that have performed strongly one year are likely to outperform their peers also the following years. But if the historical and future time horizons are extended to two or three years, the positive relationship between past and future performance vanishes in most cases. Persistence tests focusing on the aggregated performance of fund companies were also carried out. These tests produced results rather similar to those on the individual fund level.

Pricing Index Options with Stochastic Volatility

The objective of this paper is to investigate the pricing accuracy under stochastic volatility where the volatility follows a square root process. The theoretical prices are compared with market price data (the German DAX index options market) by using two different techniques of parameter estimation, the method of moments and implicit estimation by inversion. Standard Black & Scholes pricing is used as a benchmark. The results indicate that the stochastic volatility model with parameters estimated by inversion using the available prices on the preceding day, is the most accurate pricing method of the three in this study and can be considered satisfactory. However, as the same model with parameters estimated using a rolling window (the method of moments) proved to be inferior to the benchmark, the importance of stable and correct estimation of the parameters is evident.

The Politics and Policies of Reproductive Agency

This study examines the politics and policies of reproductive agency through a redescription of three Finnish policy documents dealing with the declining birth rate: the Government report on the future 'Finland for people of all ages' (2004), Business and Policy Forum EVA report 'Condemned to Diminish?' (Tuomitut vähenemään?) (2003), and the Family Federation's 'Population Policy Program' (2004). The redescription is done with the help of the notion of reproductive agency, which draws on Drucilla Cornell's concepts of the imaginary domain and bodily integrity. The imaginary domain is the moral and psychic space people need in order to form their personality, which is created in constant identificatory processes. The aim of the processes is imaginary coherence. As the personality is embodied, forming one s imaginary coherence always includes attempts for bodily integrity, also entailing attempts to arrive at an understanding of one's procreative capacities. Besides Cornell, I draw on Judith Butler's thinking and comprehend gender performatively as doing, and in relation to that agency as part of the performative process of one's personality. Reproductive agency is understood in this study as the possibilities to live differently the hegemonic forms of procreative life. I deal with three redescriptive themes: the family, economics and gender. The family is a central element in that it is considered the main location of reproduction. With regard to reproductive agency, the documents include problematic conceptions of the family. It is defined as a heterosexual, monogamous, conjugal relationship, which affects reproductive agency in that these notions do not allow for different modes of family life. The second prominent aspect, economics, features on two levels: the macroeconomic level of GDP, employment and competitiveness, and the level of family policies and concern about family finances. Macroeconomic-level argumentation is problematic in the context of reproductive agency because it implies that procreation is a duty of citizens, and thus has effects on values attached to reproductive potential. On the other hand, family policies may advance reproductive agency in supporting families financially. However, such policies also define how the family is understood, thereby affecting reproductive agency. The third theme, gender, intersects with many issues in the policy documents. All three texts consider the roles of men and women differently: women are primarily responsible for the family, and both men's and women's reproductive agency is affected in that the roles in the procreative process are predefined. EVA and the Family Federation see women as the main target of population policies, and consider it legitimate to try to change women s reproductive decisions. Implicit in the notion of reproductive agency is the idea that it should be possible to overcome and live differently the sex difference, but the three documents do not open up opportunities for that. The notion of reproductive agency makes it also possible to question the legitimacy of population policies in general and offers new perspectives on the vocabularies used in the three policy texts, providing insights into the values and logics that support the concepts.

Iäkkäiden lääkehoitoihin liittyvien riskien kartoittaminen – Arviointityökalun kehittäminen Delfoi-menetelmällä

Tutkimuksen taustalla on väestön ikääntyminen ja iäkkäiden lisääntynyt lääkkeiden käyttö. Ikääntyminen aiheuttaa elimistössä useita muutoksia, jotka voivat muuttaa lääkevastetta ja altistaa potilaan haittavaikutuksille. Iäkkäillä riski joutua sairaalaan lääkkeen haittavaikutuksen vuoksi on arvioitu olevan neljä kertaa suurempi kuin nuoremmilla. Monet lääkkeiden yhteis- ja haittavaikutukset olisivat ehkäistävissä välttämällä iäkkäillä tiettyjä lääkeaineita. Iäkkäiden lääkehoitojen seurantaa ja arviointia varten on kehitetty erilaisia suosituksia sekä Suomessa että kansainvälisesti. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli luoda Suomen oloihin soveltuva, hoitajien koulutettuina käytettävissä oleva, avohoidon yli 65-vuotiaiden iäkkäiden lääkitykseen liittyviä riskejä arvioiva työkalu. Työkalun avulla voitaisiin löytää ne potilaat, joiden lääkitykseen liittyy paljon riskejä. Tutkimuksen aineistona olivat laaja kansainvälinen kirjallisuuskatsaus iäkkäiden lääkehoitoihin liittyvistä tekijöistä sekä asiantuntijakommentoinnit, joiden perusteella luotiin alustava arviointityökalu. Alustava arviointityökalu validoitiin kolmikierroksisella Delfoi-menetelmällä. Delfoi-menetelmä on laadullinen konsensusmenetelmä, joka perustuu asiantuntijoiden arvioihin tutkittavasta asiasta. Kaksi ensimmäistä Delfoi-kierrosta mittasivat alustavan arviointityökalun kohtien soveltuvuutta ja kolmas kierros kohtien tärkeyttä arvioitaessa iäkkään lääkityksiin liittyviä riskejä. Tutkimuksen Delfoi-kierroksien vastaajiksi pyydettiin 33 geriatrian asiantuntijaa, joista vastaajiksi lupautui 11 lääkäriä, 3 proviisoria ja 4 sairaanhoitajaa. Delfoi-kierrosten tuloksia analysoitiin sekä kvantitatiivisesti että kvalitatiivisesti. Tutkimuksen tuloksena saatu arviointityökalu käsittää 19 iäkkäiden lääkehoitoa arvioivaa kohtaa. Asiantuntijapaneelin mukaan kaikki arviointityökalun lääkitykseen liittyviä riskejä mittaavat kohdat ovat tärkeitä tai jokseenkin tärkeitä, joten työkalun voidaan olettaa olevan validi mitattaessa lääkitykseen liittyviä riskejä. Jatkotutkimuksissa työkalun käytettävyyttä sekä riskien mittaamiskykyä tulee testata sekä arviointityökalun käyttäjien että potilaiden keskuudessa. Kehitettyä työkalua voidaan jatkossa hyödyntää esimerkiksi koulutustarkoituksissa sen varsinaisen käyttötarkoituksen lisäksi. Työkalun avulla iäkkäiden lääkehoitoa voidaan tulevaisuudessa toteuttaa entistä turvallisemmin ja tarkoituksenmukaisemmin.

After interpretation.

Using 58 audio recorded sessions of psychoanalysis (coming from two analysts and three patients) as data and conversation analysis as method, this paper shows how psychoanalysts deal with patients’ responses to interpretations. After the analyst offers an interpretation, the patient responds: at that point (in the “third position”), the analysts recurrently modify the tenor of the description from what it was in the patients’ responses. They intensify the emotional valence of the description, or they reveal layers of the patients’ experience other than those that the patient reported. Both are usually accomplished in an implicit, non-marked way, and they discreetly index possible opportunities for the patients to modify their understandings of the initial interpretation. Although the patients usually do not fully endorse these modifications, the data available suggests that during the sessions that follow, the participants do work with the aspects of patients’ experience that the analyst highlighted. In discussion, it is suggested that actions that the psychoanalysts produce in therapy, such as choices of turn design in third position, may be informed by working understanding of the minds and mental conflicts of individual patients, alongside the more general therapeutic model of mind they hold to.

Operationalizing Supply Chain vs. Supply Chain Competion

Competition is an immensely important area of study in economic theory, business and strategy. It is known to be vital in meeting consumers’ growing expectations, stimulating increase in the size of the market, pushing innovation, reducing cost and consequently generating better value for end users, among other things. Having said that, it is important to recognize that supply chains, as we know it, has changed the way companies deal with each other both in confrontational or conciliatory terms. As such, with the rise of global markets and outsourcing destinations, increased technological development in transportation, communication and telecommunications has meant that geographical barriers of distance with regards to competition are a thing of the past in an increasingly flat world. Even though the dominant articulation of competition within management and business literature rests mostly within economic competition theory, this thesis draws attention to the implicit shift in the recognition of other forms of competition in today’s business environment, especially those involving supply chain structures. Thus, there is popular agreement within a broad business arena that competition between companies is set to take place along their supply chains. Hence, management’s attention has been focused on how supply chains could become more aggressive making each firm in its supply chain more efficient. However, there is much disagreement on the mechanism through which such competition pitching supply chain against supply chain will take place. The purpose of this thesis therefore, is to develop and conceptualize the notion of supply chain vs. supply chain competition, within the discipline of supply chain management. The thesis proposes that competition between supply chains may be carried forward via the use of competition theories that emphasize interaction and dimensionality, hence, encountering friction from a number of sources in their search for critical resources and services. The thesis demonstrates how supply chain vs. supply chain competition may be carried out theoretically, using generated data for illustration, and practically using logistics centers as a way to provide a link between theory and corresponding practice of this evolving competition mode. The thesis concludes that supply chain vs. supply chain competition, no matter the conceptualization taken, is complex, novel and can be very easily distorted and abused. It therefore calls for the joint development of regulatory measures by practitioners and policymakers alike, to guide this developing mode of competition.

Sanomattakin selvää? : "Ja", "mutta" ja "että" puheenvuoron lopussa

This study describes the use of utterances ending in the conjunctions "ja" (‘and’), "mutta" (‘but’) or "että" (‘that’/‘so’) in Finnish conversation. It argues that in spoken interaction, these conjunctions are not only used as linking elements but also as final elements in interactional and linguistic units. In contrast to more traditional views, the study shows that final conjunctions do not always indicate incompleteness or project continuation, but that they can also form recognizable points for turn-transition. In these contexts they can be reanalyzed as final particles that leave some aspect of the turn implicit. The data for the study consist of audio-taped telephone conversations and videotaped service encounters. Situated within the framework of conversation analysis and interactional linguistics, the study discusses the interactional uses of conjunction-final turns and their recognizability as possibly complete units in talk-in-interaction. The analysis of conjunction-final utterances focuses on 1) participant orientation, and 2) their recurrent contexts of use. The results show that the recipients of conjunction-final utterances often treat them as sufficient and complete in their contexts by displaying understanding or agreement. When the same speaker continues after a pause, it is not always clear that the continuation was "planned" in advance; it can also be reactive to lack of expected uptake. In these cases, a turn can be analyzed as potentially complete even if the same speaker decides to continue after a pause. In the light of these observations, the study confirms the incremental nature of spoken language. All the final conjunctions under examination have recurrent and recognizable contexts of use. Most typically, a conjunction-final utterance is produced in the service of some earlier claim by the same speaker. The conjunction-final utterance may 1) specify the earlier claim with a detailing list ("ja"), 2) legitimize it by presenting grounds ("että") or 3) partly back down from it by making a concession ("mutta"). Together with the earlier claim, conjunction-final utterances form recognizable discourse patterns that are used for argumentative purposes. In these contexts, conjunctions are used to relinquish the floor instead of functioning as turn-holding devices. In conclusion, the study discusses the emergence of conjunctions as final particles – how their development can be explained. Conjunction-type final particles emerge from recurring situations in which the future course of the conjunction-final turn-so-far is clear enough to remain unsaid, to be left to inference. More specifically, this ability to leave something to inference often lies in the fixed discourse patterns that are conventionalized and predictable and thus reducible.

Finlandssvenska åsikter om och attityder till modern språkpåverkan

The study describes and analyzes Finland Swedes attitudes to modern-day linguistic influence, the relationship between informants explicitly reported views and the implicit attitudes they express towards language influence. The methods are primarily sociolinguistic. For the analysis of opinions and attitudes I have further developed and tested a new tool in attitude research. With statistical correlation analysis of data collected through a quantitative survey I describe the views that Swedish-language Finns (N=500) report on the influence of English, on imports, and on domain loss. With experimental matchedguise techniques, I study Finland-Swedes (N=600) subconscious reactions to English imports in spoken text. My results show that the subconscious reactions in some respects differ markedly from the views informants explicitly report that they have: informants respond that they would like English words that come into Swedish to be replaced by Swedish replacement words, but in a matched-guise test on their subconscious attitudes, the informants consider English words in a Swedish context to have a positive effect. The topic is further dealt with in interviews where I examine 36 informants implicit attitudes through interactional sociolinguistic analyses. This study comes close to pragmatic discourse analysis in its focus on pragmatic particles and modality. The study makes a rather strict distinction between explicitly expressed opinions and implicit, subconscious attitudes. The quantitative analyses suggest that the opinions we express can be tied to the explicit in language. The outcome of the matched-guise test shows that it is furthermore possible to find subconscious, implicit attitudes that people in actual situations rely on when they make decisions. The discourse analysis finds many subconscious signals, but it also shows that the signals arise in interaction with one s interlocutor, the situation, and the norms in the society. To account for this I have introduced the concept of socioconscious attitude. Socioconscious attitudes reflect not only the traditions and values the utterer grew up with, but also the speaker s relation to the social situation (s)he takes part in.

An Analysis of the Concept of Citizenship: Legal, Political and Social Dimensions

The thesis aims at analyzing concept of citizenship in political philosophy. The concept of citizenship is a complex one: it does not have a definitive explication, but it nevertheless is a very important category in contemporary world. Citizenship is a powerful ideal, and often the way a person is treated depends on whether he or she has the status of a citizen. Citizenship includes protection of a person’s rights both at home and abroad. It entails legal, political and social dimension: the legal status as a full member of society, the recognition of that status by fellow citizens and acting as a member of society. The thesis discusses these three dimensions. Its objective is to show how all of them, despite being insufficient in some aspects, reach something important about the concept. The main sources of the thesis are Civic Republicanism by Iseult Honohan (Routledge 2002), Republicanism by Philip Pettit (Clarendon Press 1997), and Taking Rights Seriously by Ronald Dworkin (1997). In addition, the historical part of the thesis relies mainly on the works of Aristotle, Immanuel Kant, Adam Smith, Quentin Skinner, James Pocock and James Tully. The writings of Will Kymlicka, John Rawls, Chantal Mouffe, and Shane Phelan are referred to in the presentation and critique of the liberal tradition of thought. Hannah Arendt and Seyla Benhabib’s analysis of Arendt’s philosophy both address the problematic relations between human rights and nation-states as the main guarantors of rights. The chapter on group rights relies on Peter Jones’ account of corporate and collective rights, after which I continue to Seumas Miller’s essay on the (liberal) account of group rights and their relation to the concept of citizenship. Republicanism and Political Theory (2002) edited by Cécile Laborde and John Maynor is also references. David Miller and Maurizio Viroli represent the more “rooted” version of republicanism. The thesis argues that the full concept of citizenship should be seen as containing legal, political and social dimensions. The concept can be viewed from all of these three angles. The first means that citizenship is connected with certain rights, like the right to vote or stand for election, the right to property and so on. In most societies, the law guarantees these rights to every citizen. Then there is also the social dimension, which can be said to be as important as the legal one: the recognition of equality and identities of others. Finally, there is the political dimension, meaning the importance of citizens’ participation in the society, which is discussed in connection with the contemporary account of republicanism. All these issues are discussed from the point of view of groups demanding for group-specific rights and equal recognition. The challenge with these three aspects of citizenship is, however, that they are difficult to discuss under one heading. Different theories or discourses of citizenship each approach the subject from different starting points, which make reconciling them sometimes hard. The fundamental questions theories try to answer may differ radically depending on the theory. Nevertheless, in order to get the whole image of what the citizenship discourses are about all the aspects deserve to be taken into account.

Part-of-Speech Tagging using Parallel Weighted Finite-State Transducers

We use parallel weighted finite-state transducers to implement a part-of-speech tagger, which obtains state-of-the-art accuracy when used to tag the Europarl corpora for Finnish, Swedish and English. Our system consists of a weighted lexicon and a guesser combined with a bigram model factored into two weighted transducers. We use both lemmas and tag sequences in the bigram model, which guarantees reliable bigram estimates.

Shifting the perspective after the patient's response to an interpretation

Psychoanalytic interpretation is normally understood as a sequence of two utterances: the analyst gives an interpretation and the patient responds to it. This paper suggests that, in the interpretative sequence, there is also a third utterance where psychoanalytic work takes place. This third interpretative turn involves the analyst’s action after the patient’s response to the interpretation. Using conversation analysis as method in the examination of audio-recorded psychoanalytic sessions, the paper will explicate the psychoanalytic work that gets done in third interpretative turns. Through it, the analyst takes a stance towards the patient’s understandings of the interpretation, which are shown in the patient’s response to the interpretation. The third interpretative turns on one hand ratify and accept the patient’s understandings, but, in addition to that, they also introduce a shift of perspective relative to them. In most cases, the shift of perspective is implicit but sometimes it is made explicit. The shifts of perspective bring to the foreground aspects or implications of the interpretation that were not incorporated in the patient’s response. They recast the description of the patient’s experience by showing new layers or more emotional intensity in it. The results are discussed in the light of Faimberg’s concept of listening to listening and Schlesinger’s concept of follow-up interpretation.