Monetary policy rules and estimated reaction functions for the European Central Bank

This thesis studies the interest-rate policy of the ECB by estimating monetary policy rules using real-time data and central bank forecasts. The aim of the estimations is to try to characterize a decade of common monetary policy and to look at how different models perform at this task.The estimated rules include: contemporary Taylor rules, forward-looking Taylor rules, nonlinearrules and forecast-based rules. The nonlinear models allow for the possibility of zone-like preferences and an asymmetric response to key variables. The models therefore encompass the most popular sub-group of simple models used for policy analysis as well as the more unusual non-linear approach. In addition to the empirical work, this thesis also contains a more general discussion of monetary policy rules mostly from a New Keynesian perspective. This discussion includes an overview of some notable related studies, optimal policy, policy gradualism and several other related subjects. The regression estimations are performed with either least squares or the generalized method of moments depending on the requirements of the estimations. The estimations use data from both the Euro Area Real-Time Database and the central bank forecasts published in ECB Monthly Bulletins. These data sources represent some of the best data that is available for this kind of analysis. The main results of this thesis are that forward-looking behavior appears highly prevalent, but that standard forward-looking Taylor rules offer only ambivalent results with regard to inflation. Nonlinear models are shown to work, but on the other hand do not have a strong rationale over a simpler linear formulation. However, the forecasts appear to be highly useful in characterizing policy and may offer the most accurate depiction of a predominantly forward-looking central bank. In particular the inflation response appears much stronger while the output response becomes highly forward-looking as well.

A maximal operator, Carleson's embedding, and tent spaces for vector-valued functions

This thesis is concerned with the area of vector-valued Harmonic Analysis, where the central theme is to determine how results from classical Harmonic Analysis generalize to functions with values in an infinite dimensional Banach space. The work consists of three articles and an introduction. The first article studies the Rademacher maximal function that was originally defined by T. Hytönen, A. McIntosh and P. Portal in 2008 in order to prove a vector-valued version of Carleson's embedding theorem. The boundedness of the corresponding maximal operator on Lebesgue-(Bochner) -spaces defines the RMF-property of the range space. It is shown that the RMF-property is equivalent to a weak type inequality, which does not depend for instance on the integrability exponent, hence providing more flexibility for the RMF-property. The second article, which is written in collaboration with T. Hytönen, studies a vector-valued Carleson's embedding theorem with respect to filtrations. An earlier proof of the dyadic version assumed that the range space satisfies a certain geometric type condition, which this article shows to be also necessary. The third article deals with a vector-valued generalizations of tent spaces, originally defined by R. R. Coifman, Y. Meyer and E. M. Stein in the 80's, and concerns especially the ones related to square functions. A natural assumption on the range space is then the UMD-property. The main result is an atomic decomposition for tent spaces with integrability exponent one. In order to suit the stochastic integrals appearing in the vector-valued formulation, the proof is based on a geometric lemma for cones and differs essentially from the classical proof. Vector-valued tent spaces have also found applications in functional calculi for bisectorial operators. In the introduction these three themes come together when studying paraproduct operators for vector-valued functions. The Rademacher maximal function and Carleson's embedding theorem were applied already by Hytönen, McIntosh and Portal in order to prove boundedness for the dyadic paraproduct operator on Lebesgue-Bochner -spaces assuming that the range space satisfies both UMD- and RMF-properties. Whether UMD implies RMF is thus an interesting question. Tent spaces, on the other hand, provide a method to study continuous time paraproduct operators, although the RMF-property is not yet understood in the framework of tent spaces.

The Reception of the Maccabean Martyrs : Their Historiographical and Paradigmatic Functions in Antique and Late-antique Jewish and Christian Sources

The study attempts a reception-historical analysis of the Maccabean martyrs. The concept of reception has fundamentally to do with the re-use and interpretation of a text within new texts. In a religious tradition, certain elements become re-circulated and thus their reception may reflect the development of that particular tradition. The Maccabean martyrs first appear in 2 Maccabees. In my study, it is the Maccabean martyr figures who count as the received text; the focus is shifted from the interrelations between texts onto how the figures have been exploited in early Christian and Rabbinic sources. I have divided my sources into two categories and my analysis is in two parts. First, I analyze the reception of the Maccabean martyrs within Jewish and Christian historiographical sources, focusing on the role given to them in the depictions of the Maccabean Revolt (Chapter 3). I conclude that, within Jewish historiography, the martyrs are given roles, which vary between ultimate efficacy and marginal position with regard to making a historical difference. In Christian historiographical sources, the martyrs role grows in importance by time: however, it is not before a Christian cult of the Maccabean martyrs has been established, that the Christian historiographies consider them historically effective. After the first part, I move on to analyze the reception in sources, which make use of the Maccabean martyrs as paradigmatic figures (Chapter 4). I have suggested that the martyrs are paradigmatic in the context of martyrdom, persecution and destruction, on one hand, and in a homiletic context, inspiring religious celebration, on the other. I conclude that, as the figures are considered pre-Christian and biblical martyrs, they function well in terms of Christian martyrdom and have contributed to the development of its ideals. Furthermore, the presentation of the martyr figures in Rabbinic sources demonstrates how the notion of Jewish martyrdom arises from experiences of destruction and despair, not so much from heroic confession of faith in the face of persecution. Before the emergence of a Christian cult of the Maccabean martyrs, their identity is derived namely from their biblical position. Later on, in the homiletic context, their Jewish identity is debated and sometimes reconstructed as fundamentally Christian , despite of their Jewish origins. Similar debate about their identity is not found in the Rabbinic versions of their martyrdom and nothing there indicates a mutual debate between early Christians and Jews. A thematic comparison shows that the Rabbinic and Christian cases of reception are non-reliant on each other but also that they link to one another. Especially the scriptural connections, often made to the Maccabean mother, reveal the similarities. The results of the analyses confirm that the early history of Christianity and Rabbinic Judaism share, at least partly, the same religious environment and intertwining traditions, not only during the first century or two but until Late Antiquity and beyond. More likely, the reception of the Maccabean martyrs demonstrates that these religious traditions never ceased to influence one another.