Examining and Modeling the Dynamics of the Volatility Surface

The objective of this paper is to investigate and model the characteristics of the prevailing volatility smiles and surfaces on the DAX- and ESX-index options markets. Continuing on the trend of Implied Volatility Functions, the Standardized Log-Moneyness model is introduced and fitted to historical data. The model replaces the constant volatility parameter of the Black & Scholes pricing model with a matrix of volatilities with respect to moneyness and maturity and is tested out-of-sample. Considering the dynamics, the results show support for the hypotheses put forward in this study, implying that the smile increases in magnitude when maturity and ATM volatility decreases and that there is a negative/positive correlation between a change in the underlying asset/time to maturity and implied ATM volatility. Further, the Standardized Log-Moneyness model indicates an improvement to pricing accuracy compared to previous Implied Volatility Function models, however indicating that the parameters of the models are to be re-estimated continuously for the models to fully capture the changing dynamics of the volatility smiles.

Customer Needing - Conceptualising Industrial Service from a Customer Perspective

Views on industrial service have conceptually progressed from the output of the provider’s production process to the result of an interaction process in which the customer also is involved. Although there are attempts to be customer-oriented, especially when the focus is on solutions, an industrial company’s offering combining goods and services is inherently seller-oriented. There is, however, a need to go beyond the current literature and company practices. We propose that what is needed is a genuinely customer-based parallel concept to offering that takes the customer’s view and put forward a new concept labelled customer needing. A needing is based on the customer’s mental model of their business and strategies which will affect priorities, decisions, and actions. A needing can be modelled as a configuration of three dimensions containing six functions that create realised value for the customer. These dimensions and functions can be used to describe needings which represent starting points for sellers’ creation of successful offerings. When offerings match needings over time the seller should have the potential to form and sustain successful buyer relationships.

Re-Conceptualizing Value-Creation From Industrial Business Logic to Service Business Logic

There is an urgent interest in marketing to move away from neo-classical value definitions suggesting that value creation is a process of exchanging goods for money. In the present paper, value creation is conceptualized as an integration of two distinct, yet closely coupled processes. First, actors co-create what this paper calls an underlying basis of value. This is done by interactively re-configuring resources. By relating and combining resources, activity sets, and risks across actor boundaries in novel ways actors create joint productivity gains – a concept very similar to density (Normann, 2001). Second, actors engage in a process of signification and evaluation. Signification implies co-constructing the meaning and worth of joint productivity gains co-created through interactive resource re-configuration, as well as sharing those gains through a pricing mechanism as value to involved actors. The conceptual framework highlights an all-important dynamics associated with ´value creation´ and ´value´ - a dynamics the paper claims has eluded past marketing research. The paper argues that the framework presented here is appropriate for the interactive service perspective, where value and value creation are not objectively given, but depend on the power of involved actors´ socially constructed frames to mobilize resources across actor boundaries in ways that ´enhance system well-being´ (Vargo et al., 2008). The paper contributes to research on Service Logic, Service-Dominant Logic, and Service Science.

Trade Liberalization, Heterogeneous Firms and Industrial Dynamics

This master thesis studies how trade liberalization affects the firm-level productivity and industrial evolution. To do so, I built a dynamic model that considers firm-level productivity as endogenous to investigate the influence of trade on firm’s productivity and the market structure. In the framework, heterogeneous firms in the same industry operate differently in equilibrium. Specifically, firms are ex ante identical but heterogeneity arises as an equilibrium outcome. Under the setting of monopolistic competition, this type of model yields an industry that is represented not by a steady-state outcome, but by an evolution that rely on the decisions made by individual firms. I prove that trade liberalization has a general positive impact on technological adoption rates and hence increases the firm-level productivity. Besides, this endogenous technology adoption model also captures the stylized facts: exporting firms are larger and more productive than their non-exporting counterparts in the same sector. I assume that the number of firms is endogenous, since, according to the empirical literature, the industrial evolution shows considerably different patterns across countries; some industries experience large scale of firms’ exit in the period of contracting market shares, while some industries display relative stable number of firms or gradually increase quantities. The special word “shakeout” is used to describe the dramatic decrease in the number of firms. In order to explain the causes of shakeout, I construct a model where forward-looking firms decide to enter and exit the market on the basis of their state of technology. In equilibrium, firms choose different dates to adopt innovation which generate a gradual diffusion process. It is exactly this gradual diffusion process that generates the rapid, large-scale exit phenomenon. Specifically, it demonstrates that there is a positive feedback between firm’s exit and adoption, the reduction in the number of firms increases the incentives for remaining firms to adopt innovation. Therefore, in the setting of complete information, this model not only generates a shakeout but also captures the stability of an industry. However, the solely national view of industrial evolution neglects the importance of international trade in determining the shape of market structure. In particular, I show that the higher trade barriers lead to more fragile markets, encouraging the over-entry in the initial stage of industry life cycle and raising the probability of a shakeout. Therefore, more liberalized trade generates more stable market structure from both national and international viewpoints. The main references are Ederington and McCalman(2008,2009).

Non-industrial private forest landowners’ choices of timber management strategies and potential allowable cut.

In the study, the potential allowable cut in the district of Pohjois-Savo - based on the non-industrial private forest landowners' (NIPF) choices of timber management strategies - was clarified. Alternative timber management strategies were generated, and the choices and factors affecting the choices of timber management strategies by NIPF landowners were studied. The choices of timber management strategies were solved by maximizing the utility functions of the NIPF landowners. The parameters of the utility functions were estimated using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The level of the potential allowable cut was compared to the cutting budgets based on the 7th and 8th National Forest Inventories (NFI7 and NFI8), to the combining of private forestry plans, and to the realized drain from non-industrial private forests. The potential allowable cut was calculated using the same MELA system as has been used in the calculation of the national cutting budget. The data consisted of the NIPF holdings (from the TASO planning system) that had been inventoried compartmentwise and had forestry plans made during the years 1984-1992. The NIPF landowners' choices of timber management strategies were clarified by a two-phase mail inquiry. The most preferred strategy obtained was "sustainability" (chosen by 62 % of landowners). The second in order of preference was "finance" (17 %) and the third was "saving" (11 %). "No cuttings", and "maximum cuttings" were the least preferred (9 % and 1 %, resp.). The factors promoting the choices of strategies with intensive cuttings were a) "farmer as forest owner" and "owning fields", b) "increase in the size of the forest holding", c) agriculture and forestry orientation in production, d) "decreasing short term stumpage earning expectations", e) "increasing intensity of future cuttings", and f) "choice of forest taxation system based on site productivity". The potential allowable cut defined in the study was 20 % higher than the average of the realized drain during the years 1988-1993, which in turn, was at the same level as the cutting budget based on the combining of forestry plans in eastern Finland. Respectively, the potential allowable cut defined in the study was 12 % lower than the NFI8-based greatest sustained allowable cut for the 1990s. Using the method presented in this study, timber management strategies can be clarified for non-industrial private forest landowners in different parts of Finland. Based on the choices of timber managemet strategies, regular cutting budgets can be calculated more realistically than before.

Non-industrial private forest landowners’ choices of timber management strategies.

The factors affecting the non-industrial, private forest landowners' (hereafter referred to using the acronym NIPF) strategic decisions in management planning are studied. A genetic algorithm is used to induce a set of rules predicting potential cut of the landowners' choices of preferred timber management strategies. The rules are based on variables describing the characteristics of the landowners and their forest holdings. The predictive ability of a genetic algorithm is compared to linear regression analysis using identical data sets. The data are cross-validated seven times applying both genetic algorithm and regression analyses in order to examine the data-sensitivity and robustness of the generated models. The optimal rule set derived from genetic algorithm analyses included the following variables: mean initial volume, landowner's positive price expectations for the next eight years, landowner being classified as farmer, and preference for the recreational use of forest property. When tested with previously unseen test data, the optimal rule set resulted in a relative root mean square error of 0.40. In the regression analyses, the optimal regression equation consisted of the following variables: mean initial volume, proportion of forestry income, intention to cut extensively in future, and positive price expectations for the next two years. The R2 of the optimal regression equation was 0.34 and the relative root mean square error obtained from the test data was 0.38. In both models, mean initial volume and positive stumpage price expectations were entered as significant predictors of potential cut of preferred timber management strategy. When tested with the complete data set of 201 observations, both the optimal rule set and the optimal regression model achieved the same level of accuracy.

Late-industrial sawmill customers.

The methods of secondary wood processing are assumed to evolve over time and to affect the requirements set for the wood material and its suppliers. The study aimed at analysing the industrial operating modes applied by joinery and furniture manufacturers as sawnwood users. Industrial operating mode was defined as a pattern of important decisions and actions taken by a company which describes the company's level of adjustment in the late-industrial transition. A non-probabilistic sample of 127 companies was interviewed, including companies from Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, and Finland. Fifty-two of the firms were furniture manufacturers and the other 75 were producing windows and doors. Variables related to business philosophy, production operations, and supplier choice criteria were measured and used as a basis for a customer typology; variables related to wood usage and perceived sawmill performance were measured to be used to profile the customer types. Factor analysis was used to determine the latent dimensions of industrial operating mode. Canonical correlations analysis was applied in developing the final base for classifying the observations. Non-hierarchical cluster analysis was employed to build a five-group typology of secondary wood processing firms; these ranged from traditional mass producers to late-industrial flexible manufacturers. There is a clear connection between the amount of late-industrial elements in a company and the share of special and customised sawnwood it uses. Those joinery or furniture manufacturers that are more late-industrial also are likely to use more component-type wood material and to appreciate customer-oriented technical precision. The results show that the change is towards the use of late-industrial sawnwood materials and late-industrial supplier relationships.

Local systems, global impacts : Using life cycle assessment to analyse the potential and constraints of industrial symbioses

Human activities extract and displace different substances and materials from the earth s crust, thus causing various environmental problems, such as climate change, acidification and eutrophication. As problems have become more complicated, more holistic measures that consider the origins and sources of pollutants have been called for. Industrial ecology is a field of science that forms a comprehensive framework for studying the interactions between the modern technological society and the environment. Industrial ecology considers humans and their technologies to be part of the natural environment, not separate from it. Industrial operations form natural systems that must also function as such within the constraints set by the biosphere. Industrial symbiosis (IS) is a central concept of industrial ecology. Industrial symbiosis studies look at the physical flows of materials and energy in local industrial systems. In an ideal IS, waste material and energy are exchanged by the actors of the system, thereby reducing the consumption of virgin material and energy inputs and the generation of waste and emissions. Companies are seen as part of the chains of suppliers and consumers that resemble those of natural ecosystems. The aim of this study was to analyse the environmental performance of an industrial symbiosis based on pulp and paper production, taking into account life cycle impacts as well. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a tool for quantitatively and systematically evaluating the environmental aspects of a product, technology or service throughout its whole life cycle. Moreover, the Natural Step Sustainability Principles formed a conceptual framework for assessing the environmental performance of the case study symbiosis (Paper I). The environmental performance of the case study symbiosis was compared to four counterfactual reference scenarios in which the actors of the symbiosis operated on their own. The research methods used were process-based life cycle assessment (LCA) (Papers II and III) and hybrid LCA, which combines both process and input-output LCA (Paper IV). The results showed that the environmental impacts caused by the extraction and processing of the materials and the energy used by the symbiosis were considerable. If only the direct emissions and resource use of the symbiosis had been considered, less than half of the total environmental impacts of the system would have been taken into account. When the results were compared with the counterfactual reference scenarios, the net environmental impacts of the symbiosis were smaller than those of the reference scenarios. The reduction in environmental impacts was mainly due to changes in the way energy was produced. However, the results are sensitive to the way the reference scenarios are defined. LCA is a useful tool for assessing the overall environmental performance of industrial symbioses. It is recommended that in addition to the direct effects, the upstream impacts should be taken into account as well when assessing the environmental performance of industrial symbioses. Industrial symbiosis should be seen as part of the process of improving the environmental performance of a system. In some cases, it may be more efficient, from an environmental point of view, to focus on supply chain management instead.  

Effects of forestry extension on the use of allowable cut in non-industrial private forests.

XVIII IUFRO World Congress, Ljubljana 1986.

Public and private technical assistance programs for non-industrial private forest landowners in the southern United States.

XVIII IUFRO World Congress, Ljubljana 1986.

Generation of Flat and Curved Membranes by Inverse-BAR Domain Proteins

Biological membranes are tightly linked to the evolution of life, because they provide a way to concentrate molecules into partially closed compartments. The dynamic shaping of cellular membranes is essential for many physiological processes, including cell morphogenesis, motility, cytokinesis, endocytosis, and secretion. It is therefore essential to understand the structure of the membrane and recognize the players that directly sculpt the membrane and enable it to adopt different shapes. The actin cytoskeleton provides the force to push eukaryotic plasma membrane in order to form different protrusions or/and invaginations. It has now became evident that actin directly co-operates with many membrane sculptors, including BAR domain proteins, in these important events. However, the molecular mechanisms behind BAR domain function and the differences between the members of this large protein family remain largely unresolved. In this thesis, the structure and functions of the I-BAR domain family members IRSp53 and MIM were thoroughly analyzed. By using several methods such as electron microscopy and systematic mutagenesis, we showed that these I-BAR domain proteins bind to PI(4,5)P2-rich membranes, generate negative membrane curvature and are involved in the formation of plasma membrane protrusions in cells e.g. filopodia. Importantly, we characterized a novel member of the BAR-domain superfamily which we named Pinkbar. We revealed that Pinkbar is specifically expressed in kidney and epithelial cells, and it localizes to Rab13-positive vesicles in intestinal epithelial cells. Remarkably, we learned that the I-BAR domain of Pinkbar does not generate membrane curvature but instead stabilizes planar membranes. Based on structural, mutagenesis and biochemical work we present a model for the mechanism of the novel membrane deforming activity of Pinkbar. Collectively, this work describes the mechanism by which I-BAR domain proteins deform membranes and provides new information about the biological roles of these proteins. Intriguingly, this work also gives evidence that significant functional plasticity exists within the I-BAR domain family. I-BAR proteins can either generate negative membrane curvature or stabilize planar membrane sheets, depending on the specific structural properties of their I-BAR domains. The results presented in this thesis expand our knowledge on membrane sculpting mechanisms and shows for the first time how flat membranes can be generated in cells.