Modelling and Forecasting Property Rents and Returns (summary section only)

Recently, focus of real estate investment has expanded from the building-specific level to the aggregate portfolio level. The portfolio perspective requires investment analysis for real estate which is comparable with that of other asset classes, such as stocks and bonds. Thus, despite its distinctive features, such as heterogeneity, high unit value, illiquidity and the use of valuations to measure performance, real estate should not be considered in isolation. This means that techniques which are widely used for other assets classes can also be applied to real estate. An important part of investment strategies which support decisions on multi-asset portfolios is identifying the fundamentals of movements in property rents and returns, and predicting them on the basis of these fundamentals. The main objective of this thesis is to find the key drivers and the best methods for modelling and forecasting property rents and returns in markets which have experienced structural changes. The Finnish property market, which is a small European market with structural changes and limited property data, is used as a case study. The findings in the thesis show that is it possible to use modern econometric tools for modelling and forecasting property markets. The thesis consists of an introduction part and four essays. Essays 1 and 3 model Helsinki office rents and returns, and assess the suitability of alternative techniques for forecasting these series. Simple time series techniques are able to account for structural changes in the way markets operate, and thus provide the best forecasting tool. Theory-based econometric models, in particular error correction models, which are constrained by long-run information, are better for explaining past movements in rents and returns than for predicting their future movements. Essay 2 proceeds by examining the key drivers of rent movements for several property types in a number of Finnish property markets. The essay shows that commercial rents in local markets can be modelled using national macroeconomic variables and a panel approach. Finally, Essay 4 investigates whether forecasting models can be improved by accounting for asymmetric responses of office returns to the business cycle. The essay finds that the forecast performance of time series models can be improved by introducing asymmetries, and the improvement is sufficient to justify the extra computational time and effort associated with the application of these techniques.

Essays on the Role of Time in Price Discovery (summary section only)

The purpose of this thesis is to examine the role of trade durations in price discovery. The motivation to use trade durations in the study of price discovery is that durations are robust to many microstructure effects that introduce a bias in the measurement of returns volatility. Another motivation to use trade durations in the study of price discovery is that it is difficult to think of economic variables, which really are useful in the determination of the source of volatility at arbitrarily high frequencies. The dissertation contains three essays. In the first essay, the role of trade durations in price discovery is examined with respect to the volatility pattern of stock returns. The theory on volatility is associated with the theory on the information content of trade, dear to the market microstructure theory. The first essay documents that the volatility per transaction is related to the intensity of trade, and a strong relationship between the stochastic process of trade durations and trading variables. In the second essay, the role of trade durations in price discovery is examined with respect to the quantification of risk due to a trading volume of a certain size. The theory on volume is intrinsically associated with the stock volatility pattern. The essay documents that volatility increases, in general, when traders choose to trade with large transactions. In the third essay, the role of trade durations in price discovery is examined with respect to the information content of a trade. The theory on the information content of a trade is associated with the theory on the rate of price revisions in the market. The essay documents that short durations are associated with information. Thus, traders are compensated for responding quickly to information

Essays on the Costs and Benefits of Large Shareholders in Corporate Governance (summary section only)

“Corporate governance deals with the ways in which suppliers of finance to firms assure themselves of getting a return on their investment” (Shleifer and Vishny (1997, p. 737). According to La Porta et al. (1999), research in corporate finance relevant for most countries should focus on the incentives and capabilities of controlling shareholders to treat themselves preferentially at the expense of minority shareholders. Accordingly, this thesis sets out to answer a number of research questions regarding the role of large shareholders in public firms that have received little attention in the literature so far. A common theme in the essays stems from the costs and benefits of individual large-block owners and the role of control contestability from the perspective of outside minority shareholders. The first essay empirically examines whether there are systematic performance differences between family controlled and nonfamily controlled firms in Western Europe. In contrast to the widely held view that family control penalizes firm value, the essay shows that publicly traded family firms have higher performance than comparable firms. In the second essay, we present both theoretical and empirical analysis on the effects of control contestability on firm valuation. Consistent with the theoretical model, the empirical results show that minority shareholders benefit from a more contestable control structure. The third essay explores the effects of individual large-block owners on top management turnover and board appointments in Finnish listed firms. The results indicate that firm performance is an important determinant for management and board restructurings. For certain types of turnover decisions the corporate governance structure influences the performance / turnover sensitivity. In the fourth essay, we investigate the relation between the governance structure and dividend policy in Finnish listed firms. We find evidence in support of the outcome agency model of dividends stating that lower agency conflicts should be associated with higher dividend payouts.

Essays on Risk Modeling. Applications to Portfolio and Risk Management (summary section only)

In this thesis we deal with the concept of risk. The objective is to bring together and conclude on some normative information regarding quantitative portfolio management and risk assessment. The first essay concentrates on return dependency. We propose an algorithm for classifying markets into rising and falling. Given the algorithm, we derive a statistic: the Trend Switch Probability, for detection of long-term return dependency in the first moment. The empirical results suggest that the Trend Switch Probability is robust over various volatility specifications. The serial dependency in bear and bull markets behaves however differently. It is strongly positive in rising market whereas in bear markets it is closer to a random walk. Realized volatility, a technique for estimating volatility from high frequency data, is investigated in essays two and three. In the second essay we find, when measuring realized variance on a set of German stocks, that the second moment dependency structure is highly unstable and changes randomly. Results also suggest that volatility is non-stationary from time to time. In the third essay we examine the impact from market microstructure on the error between estimated realized volatility and the volatility of the underlying process. With simulation-based techniques we show that autocorrelation in returns leads to biased variance estimates and that lower sampling frequency and non-constant volatility increases the error variation between the estimated variance and the variance of the underlying process. From these essays we can conclude that volatility is not easily estimated, even from high frequency data. It is neither very well behaved in terms of stability nor dependency over time. Based on these observations, we would recommend the use of simple, transparent methods that are likely to be more robust over differing volatility regimes than models with a complex parameter universe. In analyzing long-term return dependency in the first moment we find that the Trend Switch Probability is a robust estimator. This is an interesting area for further research, with important implications for active asset allocation.

Essays on the Linkages Between Financial Markets, and Risk Asymmetries (summary section only)

During the last few decades there have been far going financial market deregulation, technical development, advances in information technology, and standardization of legislation between countries. As a result, one can expect that financial markets have grown more interlinked. The proper understanding of the cross-market linkages has implications for investment and risk management, diversification, asset pricing, and regulation. The purpose of this research is to assess the degree of price, return, and volatility linkages between both geographic markets and asset categories within one country, Finland. Another purpose is to analyze risk asymmetries, i.e., the tendency of equity risk to be higher after negative events than after positive events of equal magnitude. The analysis is conducted both with respect to total risk (volatility), and systematic risk (beta). The thesis consists of an introductory part and four essays. The first essay studies to which extent international stock prices comove. The degree of comovements is low, indicating benefits from international diversification. The second essay examines the degree to which the Finnish market is linked to the “world market”. The total risk is divided into two parts, one relating to world factors, and one relating to domestic factors. The impact of world factors has increased over time. After 1993, when foreign investors were allowed to freely invest in Finnish assets, the risk level has been higher than previously. This was also the case during the economic recession in the beginning of the 1990’s. The third essay focuses on the stock, bond, and money markets in Finland. According to a trading model, the degree of volatility linkages should be strong. However, the results contradict this. The linkages are surprisingly weak, even negative. The stock market is the most independent, while the money market is affected by events on the two other markets. The fourth essay concentrates on volatility and beta asymmetries. Contrary to many international studies there are only few cases of risk asymmetries. When they occur, they tend to be driven by the market-wide component rather than the portfolio specific element.

Essays on Stock Option Compensation and the Role of Incentives and Risk (summary section only)

Managerial pay-for-performance sensitivity has increased rapidly around the world. Early empirical research showed that pay-for-performance sensitivity resulting from stock ownership and stock options appeared to be quite low during the 1970s and early 1980s in the U.S. However, recent empirical research from the U.S. shows an enormous increase in pay-for-performance sensitivity. The global trend has also reached Finland, where stock options have become a major ingredient of executive compensation. The fact that stock options seem to be an appealing form of remuneration from a theoretical point of view combined with the observation that the use of this compensation form has increased significantly during the recent years, implies that research on the dynamics of stock option compensation is highly relevant for the academic community, as well as for practitioners and regulators. The research questions of the thesis are analyzed in four separate essays. The first essay examines whether stock option compensation practices of Finnish firms are consistent with predictions from principal-agent theory. The second essay explores one of the major puzzles in the compensation literature by studying determinants of stock option contract design. In theory, optimal contract design should vary according to firm characteristics. However, in the U.S., variation in contract design seems to be surprisingly low, a phenomenon generally attributed to tax and accounting considerations. In Finland, however, firms are not subject to stringent contracting restrictions, and the variation in contract design tends, in fact, to be quite substantial. The third essay studies the impact of price- and risk incentives arising from stock option compensation on firm investment. In addition, the essay explores one of the most debated questions in the literature, in particular, the relation between incentives and firm performance. Finally, several strands of literature in both economics and corporate finance hypothesize that economic uncertainty is related to corporate decision-making. Previous research has shown that risk tends to slow down firm investment. In the fourth essay, it is hypothesized that firm risk slows down growth from a more universal perspective. Consistent with this view, it is shown that risk not only tends to slow down firm investment, but also employment growth. Moreover, the essay explores whether the nature of firms’ compensation policies, in particular, whether firms make use of stock option compensation, affects the relation between risk and firm growth. In summary, the four essays contribute to the current understanding of stock options as a form of equity incentives, and how incentives and risk affect corporate decision-making. By this, the thesis promotes the knowledge related to the modern theory of the firm.

Corporate Governance in China (summary section only)

The negative relationship between economic growth and stock market return is not an anomaly according to evidence documented in many economies. It is argued that future economic growth is largely irrelevant for predicting future equity returns, since long-run equity returns depend mainly on dividend yields and the growth of per share dividends. The economic growth does result in a higher standard of living for consumers, but does not necessarily translate into higher returns for owners of the capital. The divergence in performance between the real sector and stock markets appears to support the above argument. However, this thesis strives to offer an alternative explanation to the apparent divergence within the framework of corporate governance. It argues that weak corporate governance standards in Chinese listed firms exacerbated by poor inventor protection results into a marginalized capital market. Each of the three essays in the thesis addresses one particular aspect of corporate governance on the Chinese stock market in a sequential way through gathering empirical evidence on three distinctive stock market activities. The first essay questions whether significant agency conflicts do exist by building a game on rights issues. It documents significant divergence in interests among shareholders holding different classes of shares. The second essay investigates the level of agency costs by examining value of control through constructing a sample of block transactions. It finds that block transactions that transfer ultimate control entail higher premiums. The third essay looks into possible avenues through which corporate governance standards could be improved by investigating the economic consequences of cross-listing on the Chinese stock market. It finds that, by adopting a higher disclosure standard through cross-listings, firms voluntarily commit themselves to reducing information asymmetry, and consequently command higher valuation than their counterparts.

Three Essays on the Volatility of Finnish Stock Returns (summary section only)

First, in Essay 1, we test whether it is possible to forecast Finnish Options Index return volatility by examining the out-of-sample predictive ability of several common volatility models with alternative well-known methods; and find additional evidence for the predictability of volatility and for the superiority of the more complicated models over the simpler ones. Secondly, in Essay 2, the aggregated volatility of stocks listed on the Helsinki Stock Exchange is decomposed into a market, industry-and firm-level component, and it is found that firm-level (i.e., idiosyncratic) volatility has increased in time, is more substantial than the two former, predicts GDP growth, moves countercyclically and as well as the other components is persistent. Thirdly, in Essay 3, we are among the first in the literature to seek for firm-specific determinants of idiosyncratic volatility in a multivariate setting, and find for the cross-section of stocks listed on the Helsinki Stock Exchange that industrial focus, trading volume, and block ownership, are positively associated with idiosyncratic volatility estimates––obtained from both the CAPM and the Fama and French three-factor model with local and international benchmark portfolios––whereas a negative relation holds between firm age as well as size and idiosyncratic volatility.

Short-term Price Behavior and the Effect of Foreign Investors in Finnish Equity Markets (summary section only)

As globalization and capital free movement has increased, so has interest in the effects of that global money flow, especially during financial crises. The concern has been that large global money flows will affect the pricing of small local markets by causing, in particular, overreaction. The purpose of this thesis is to contribute to the body of work concerning short-term under- and overreaction and the short-term effects of foreign investment flow in the small Finnish equity markets. This thesis also compares foreign execution return to domestic execution return. This study’s results indicate that short-term under- and overreaction occurs in domestic-buy portfolios (domestic net buying) rather than in foreign-buy portfolios. This under- and overreaction, however, is not economically meaningful after controlling for the bid-ask bounce effect. Based on this finding, one can conclude that foreign investors do not have a destabilizing effect in the short-term in the Finnish markets. Foreign activity affects short-term returns. When foreign investors are net buyers (sellers) there are positive (negative) market adjusted returns. Literature related to nationality and institutional effect leads us to expect these kind of results. These foreign flows are persistent at a 5 % to 21 % level and the persistence of foreign buy flow is higher than the foreign sell flow. Foreign daily trading execution is worse than domestic execution. Literature which quantifies foreign investors as liquidity demanders and literature related to front-running leads us to expect poorer foreign execution than domestic execution.

Inference on Cointegration in Vector Autoregressive Models (summary section only)

In the thesis we consider inference for cointegration in vector autoregressive (VAR) models. The thesis consists of an introduction and four papers. The first paper proposes a new test for cointegration in VAR models that is directly based on the eigenvalues of the least squares (LS) estimate of the autoregressive matrix. In the second paper we compare a small sample correction for the likelihood ratio (LR) test of cointegrating rank and the bootstrap. The simulation experiments show that the bootstrap works very well in practice and dominates the correction factor. The tests are applied to international stock prices data, and the .nite sample performance of the tests are investigated by simulating the data. The third paper studies the demand for money in Sweden 1970—2000 using the I(2) model. In the fourth paper we re-examine the evidence of cointegration between international stock prices. The paper shows that some of the previous empirical results can be explained by the small-sample bias and size distortion of Johansen’s LR tests for cointegration. In all papers we work with two data sets. The first data set is a Swedish money demand data set with observations on the money stock, the consumer price index, gross domestic product (GDP), the short-term interest rate and the long-term interest rate. The data are quarterly and the sample period is 1970(1)—2000(1). The second data set consists of month-end stock market index observations for Finland, France, Germany, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States from 1980(1) to 1997(2). Both data sets are typical of the sample sizes encountered in economic data, and the applications illustrate the usefulness of the models and tests discussed in the thesis.

Adaptation in a Business Network Cooperation Context (summary section only)

In today’s business one can say that competition does not take place inside the network, but between networks. Change and dynamics are central issues in network studies, and a company, due its changing environment, can identify opportunities and threats and respond to them accordingly. These opportunities are vital, but also complex and demanding for the management. Earlier research has identified a shortcoming in explanations of how the micro-level interactions to macro-level patterns are connected. The IMP-group has been trying to fill this research gap with research on interactions within business networks. In this area of research lies the focus of research on relationships between organizations. Adaptation in cooperation is a central concept within business network research. Adaptation has been dealt with in previous literature, but the focus of the studies has mainly been outside this phenomenon, and it has mostly had a supporting role. Most literature has also described the buyers' point of view in studied supply networks, whereas much less attention has been paid to the suppliers' view on them. This study focuses on this research gap. The results of the study stress that adaptation should be included to a greater extent in the strategy work of companies. The adaptations should be carefully planned and, as far as possible, made consciously. Conscious, well-planned adaptations can be seen as investments into present and future relationships, and resources should be invested into something that does not increase the company’s dependence, but divides the power in the relationship between the companies. Adaptations should be planned so that they result in a more offensive way of responding to the demands that are placed upon the companies. In this way, the actions can be viewed and analyzed in accordance with whether the actions make the company weaker or stronger.

Knowledge Sharing in Multinational Corporations - A Social Captal Perspective (summary section only)

Multinational corporations (MNCs) are commonly perceived as networks of differentiated units, dependent for their competitive edge on the sharing of different kinds of internal resources. This ‘differentiated network’ view of the MNC strongly emphasizes the crucial role of interunit knowledge sharing, the topic of this thesis. The five essays presented here contribute to the research on interunit knowledge sharing in MNCs by focusing on the roles played by language, identity, and feedback seeking in the knowledge sharing process. While these factors have occasionally been brought up in previous research as potentially relevant for interunit knowledge sharing, they have so far been subject to limited empirical examination – an important omission which this thesis is an effort to redress. Furthermore, the treatment of the topic is anchored in a theoretical framework based on social capital. This perspective contributes to MNC research by providing a comprehensive framework for examining the significance of social relationships in interunit interaction. The findings can be summarized in two main points. Firstly, language skills and shared identity appear to promote the accumulation of interunit social capital. Secondly, high levels of interunit social capital seem to promote interunit knowledge sharing and feedback seeking. These observations raise a number of both theoretical and practical issues of considerable relevance for MNC management.

Knowledge Transfer within Western Multinationals' Subsidiary Units in China and Finland - The Impact of Headquarter Control Mechanisms, Subsidiary Location and Social Capital (summary section only)

It is suggested that the ability and practices of how the multinational corporation (MNC) manages knowledge transfer among its geographically dispersed subsidiary units are crucial for the building and development of firm competitive advantage. However, cross-border transfer of valuable organizational knowledge is likely to be problematic and laborious, especially within diversified and differentiated MNCs. Using data collected from 164 western multinational companies’ subsidiary units located in China and Finland, this study aims to investigate cross-border knowledge transfer within the MNC. It explores a number of factors that influence the transfer of knowledge among units in the differentiated MNC. The study consists of five individual papers. Paper 1 investigates a range of organizational mechanisms that may positively influence a subsidiary’s propensity to undertake knowledge transfers to other parts of the corporation. Paper 2 explores the impact of subsidiary location on the motivational dispositions of knowledge receiving units to value and accept knowledge from subsidiaries located in economically less advanced countries. Paper 3 examines the influence of social capital variables on knowledge transfer in dyadic relationships between foreign-owned subsidiaries and their sister and patent units. Paper 4 provides some initial insights into potentially different effects of trust and shared vision in intra-organizational vs. inter-organizational relationships. Using a case study setting, Paper 5 explores means and mechanisms used in transferring human resource management practices to Western MNCs’ business units in China from a cultural perspective. The results of the study show that MNC management through choices regarding organizational controls can encourage and enhance corporate-internal knowledge transfer. It also finds evidence that more knowledge is transferred from subsidiaries located in an industrialized country (e.g., Finland) than subsidiaries located in a developing country (e.g., China). While the study has highlighted the importance of social capital in promoting knowledge transfer, it has also uncovered some new findings that the effect of trust and shared vision may be contingent upon different contexts. Finally, in Paper 5, a number of mechanisms used in transferring selected HRM practices and competences to the Chinese business units have been identified. The findings suggest that cultural differences should be taken into consideration in the choice and use of different transfer mechanisms.

ICT and the Shaping of Society: Exploring Human -ICT Relationships in Everyday Life (summary section only)

This thesis explores the relationship between humans and ICTs (information and communication technologies). As ICTs are increasingly penetrating all spheres of social life, their role as mediators – between people, between people and information, and even between people and the natural world – is expanding, and they are increasingly shaping social life. Yet, we still know little of how our life is affected by their growing role. Our understanding of the actors and forces driving the accelerating adoption of new ICTs in all areas of life is also fairly limited. This thesis addresses these problems by interpretively exploring the link between ICTs and the shaping of society at home, in the office, and in the community. The thesis builds on empirical material gathered in three research projects, presented in four separate essays. The first project explores computerized office work through a case study. The second is a regional development project aiming at increasing ICT knowledge and use in 50 small-town families. In the third, the second project is compared to three other longitudinal development projects funded by the European Union. Using theories that consider the human-ICT relationship as intertwined, the thesis provides a multifaceted description of life with ICTs in contemporary information society. By oscillating between empirical and theoretical investigations and balancing between determinist and constructivist conceptualisations of the human-ICT relationship, I construct a dialectical theoretical framework that can be used for studying socio-technical contexts in society. This framework helps us see how societal change stems from the complex social processes that surround routine everyday actions. For example, interacting with and through ICTs may change individuals’ perceptions of time and space, social roles, and the proper ways to communicate – changes which at some point in time result in societal change in terms of, for example, new ways of acting and knowing things.

Workplace Bullying among Business Professionals - Prevalence, Organisational Antecedents and Gender Differences (summary section only)

Workplace bullying can be defined as repeated and persistent negative acts that involve a power imbalance and create a hostile work environment. Partly because of the many negative consequences associated with the phenomenon, bullying has recently become the focus of many studies by contemporary organisational researchers. Drawing on a survey, this thesis provides information on the prevalence and forms of bullying among business professionals, a group of employees neglected in previous bullying research. The thesis follows a tradition among Nordic researchers that emphasises the role of the psychosocial work environment in bullying. In particular, it illustrates how high internal competition and a high degree of organisational politics in business life may lead employees to use bullying as a tactic to gain benefits over their colleagues. Furthermore, it explores the significance of gender in bullying in male-dominated work environments, with women tending to be subjected to more negative acts, tending to feel less capable to defend themselves in these situations, and tending to feel less reluctant to classify these experiences as bullying. In addition to the introductory essay, this thesis consists of a book chapter and four articles. These five papers address particular aspects of workplace bullying: the prevalence and forms of bullying, the significance of gender in bullying, and organisational antecedents of bullying.