Intonation of Finnish Verbs

A production experiment investigated the tonal shape of Finnish finite verbs in transitive sentences without narrow focus. Traditional descriptions of Finnish stating that non- focused finite verbs do not receive accents were only partly supported. Verbs were found to have a consistently smaller pitch range than words in other word classes, but their pitch contours were neither flat nor explainable by pure interpolation.

Semi-supervised learning of WLAN radio maps

In this thesis a manifold learning method is applied to the problem of WLAN positioning and automatic radio map creation. Due to the nature of WLAN signal strength measurements, a signal map created from raw measurements results in non-linear distance relations between measurement points. These signal strength vectors reside in a high-dimensioned coordinate system. With the help of the so called Isomap-algorithm the dimensionality of this map can be reduced, and thus more easily processed. By embedding position-labeled strategic key points, we can automatically adjust the mapping to match the surveyed environment. The environment is thus learned in a semi-supervised way; gathering training points and embedding them in a two-dimensional manifold gives us a rough mapping of the measured environment. After a calibration phase, where the labeled key points in the training data are used to associate coordinates in the manifold representation with geographical locations, we can perform positioning using the adjusted map. This can be achieved through a traditional supervised learning process, which in our case is a simple nearest neighbors matching of a sampled signal strength vector. We deployed this system in two locations in the Kumpula campus in Helsinki, Finland. Results indicate that positioning based on the learned radio map can achieve good accuracy, especially in hallways or other areas in the environment where the WLAN signal is constrained by obstacles such as walls.

Direct Top-Quark Width Measurement at CDF

We present a measurement of the top-quark width using $t\bar{t}$ events produced in $p\bar{p}$ collisions at Fermilab's Tevatron collider and collected by the CDF II detector. In the mode where the top quark decays to a $W$ boson and a bottom quark, we select events in which one $W$ decays leptonically and the other hadronically~(lepton + jets channel) . From a data sample corresponding to 4.3~fb$^{-1}$ of integrated luminosity, we identify 756 candidate events. The top-quark mass and the mass of $W$ boson that decays hadronically are reconstructed for each event and compared with templates of different top-quark widths~($\Gamma_t$) and deviations from nominal jet energy scale~($\Delta_{JES}$) to perform a simultaneous fit for both parameters, where $\Delta_{JES}$ is used for the {\it in situ} calibration of the jet energy scale. By applying a Feldman-Cousins approach, we establish an upper limit at 95$\%$ confidence level~(CL) of $\Gamma_t $

Top quark mass measurement in the lepton plus jets channel using a modified matrix element method

We report a measurement of the top quark mass, m_t, obtained from ppbar collisions at sqrt(s) = 1.96 TeV at the Fermilab Tevatron using the CDF II detector. We analyze a sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1.9 fb^-1. We select events with an electron or muon, large missing transverse energy, and exactly four high-energy jets in the central region of the detector, at least one of which is tagged as coming from a b quark. We calculate a signal likelihood using a matrix element integration method, with effective propagators to take into account assumptions on event kinematics. Our event likelihood is a function of m_t and a parameter JES that determines /in situ/ the calibration of the jet energies. We use a neural network discriminant to distinguish signal from background events. We also apply a cut on the peak value of each event likelihood curve to reduce the contribution of background and badly reconstructed events. Using the 318 events that pass all selection criteria, we find m_t = 172.7 +/- 1.8 (stat. + JES) +/- 1.2 (syst.) GeV/c^2.

Disjunct eddy covariance measurements of volatile organic compound fluxes using proton transfer reaction mass spectrometry

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are emitted into the atmosphere from natural and anthropogenic sources, vegetation being the dominant source on a global scale. Some of these reactive compounds are deemed major contributors or inhibitors to aerosol particle formation and growth, thus making VOC measurements essential for current climate change research. This thesis discusses ecosystem scale VOC fluxes measured above a boreal Scots pine dominated forest in southern Finland. The flux measurements were performed using the micrometeorological disjunct eddy covariance (DEC) method combined with proton transfer reaction mass spectrometry (PTR-MS), which is an online technique for measuring VOC concentrations. The measurement, calibration, and calculation procedures developed in this work proved to be well suited to long-term VOC concentration and flux measurements with PTR-MS. A new averaging approach based on running averaged covariance functions improved the determination of the lag time between wind and concentration measurements, which is a common challenge in DEC when measuring fluxes near the detection limit. The ecosystem scale emissions of methanol, acetaldehyde, and acetone were substantial. These three oxygenated VOCs made up about half of the total emissions, with the rest comprised of monoterpenes. Contrary to the traditional assumption that monoterpene emissions from Scots pine originate mainly as evaporation from specialized storage pools, the DEC measurements indicated a significant contribution from de novo biosynthesis to the ecosystem scale monoterpene emissions. This thesis offers practical guidelines for long-term DEC measurements with PTR-MS. In particular, the new averaging approach to the lag time determination seems useful in the automation of DEC flux calculations. Seasonal variation in the monoterpene biosynthesis and the detailed structure of a revised hybrid algorithm, describing both de novo and pool emissions, should be determined in further studies to improve biological realism in the modelling of monoterpene emissions from Scots pine forests. The increasing number of DEC measurements of oxygenated VOCs will probably enable better estimates of the role of these compounds in plant physiology and tropospheric chemistry. Keywords: disjunct eddy covariance, lag time determination, long-term flux measurements, proton transfer reaction mass spectrometry, Scots pine forests, volatile organic compounds

Modeling and Forecasting Implied Volatility: Implications for Trading, Pricing, and Risk Management

Modeling and forecasting of implied volatility (IV) is important to both practitioners and academics, especially in trading, pricing, hedging, and risk management activities, all of which require an accurate volatility. However, it has become challenging since the 1987 stock market crash, as implied volatilities (IVs) recovered from stock index options present two patterns: volatility smirk(skew) and volatility term-structure, if the two are examined at the same time, presents a rich implied volatility surface (IVS). This implies that the assumptions behind the Black-Scholes (1973) model do not hold empirically, as asset prices are mostly influenced by many underlying risk factors. This thesis, consists of four essays, is modeling and forecasting implied volatility in the presence of options markets’ empirical regularities. The first essay is modeling the dynamics IVS, it extends the Dumas, Fleming and Whaley (DFW) (1998) framework; for instance, using moneyness in the implied forward price and OTM put-call options on the FTSE100 index, a nonlinear optimization is used to estimate different models and thereby produce rich, smooth IVSs. Here, the constant-volatility model fails to explain the variations in the rich IVS. Next, it is found that three factors can explain about 69-88% of the variance in the IVS. Of this, on average, 56% is explained by the level factor, 15% by the term-structure factor, and the additional 7% by the jump-fear factor. The second essay proposes a quantile regression model for modeling contemporaneous asymmetric return-volatility relationship, which is the generalization of Hibbert et al. (2008) model. The results show strong negative asymmetric return-volatility relationship at various quantiles of IV distributions, it is monotonically increasing when moving from the median quantile to the uppermost quantile (i.e., 95%); therefore, OLS underestimates this relationship at upper quantiles. Additionally, the asymmetric relationship is more pronounced with the smirk (skew) adjusted volatility index measure in comparison to the old volatility index measure. Nonetheless, the volatility indices are ranked in terms of asymmetric volatility as follows: VIX, VSTOXX, VDAX, and VXN. The third essay examines the information content of the new-VDAX volatility index to forecast daily Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimates and compares its VaR forecasts with the forecasts of the Filtered Historical Simulation and RiskMetrics. All daily VaR models are then backtested from 1992-2009 using unconditional, independence, conditional coverage, and quadratic-score tests. It is found that the VDAX subsumes almost all information required for the volatility of daily VaR forecasts for a portfolio of the DAX30 index; implied-VaR models outperform all other VaR models. The fourth essay models the risk factors driving the swaption IVs. It is found that three factors can explain 94-97% of the variation in each of the EUR, USD, and GBP swaption IVs. There are significant linkages across factors, and bi-directional causality is at work between the factors implied by EUR and USD swaption IVs. Furthermore, the factors implied by EUR and USD IVs respond to each others’ shocks; however, surprisingly, GBP does not affect them. Second, the string market model calibration results show it can efficiently reproduce (or forecast) the volatility surface for each of the swaptions markets.

Simulating and Forecasting the Demand for New Consumer Durables

A diffusion/replacement model for new consumer durables designed to be used as a long-term forecasting tool is developed. The model simulates new demand as well as replacement demand over time. The model is called DEMSIM and is built upon a counteractive adoption model specifying the basic forces affecting the adoption behaviour of individual consumers. These forces are the promoting forces and the resisting forces. The promoting forces are further divided into internal and external influences. These influences are operationalized within a multi-segmental diffusion model generating the adoption behaviour of the consumers in each segment as an expected value. This diffusion model is combined with a replacement model built upon the same segmental structure as the diffusion model. This model generates, in turn, the expected replacement behaviour in each segment. To be able to use DEMSIM as a forecasting tool in early stages of a diffusion process estimates of the model parameters are needed as soon as possible after product launch. However, traditional statistical techniques are not very helpful in estimating such parameters in early stages of a diffusion process. To enable early parameter calibration an optimization algorithm is developed by which the main parameters of the diffusion model can be estimated on the basis of very few sales observations. The optimization is carried out in iterative simulation runs. Empirical validations using the optimization algorithm reveal that the diffusion model performs well in early long-term sales forecasts, especially as it comes to the timing of future sales peaks.

Change detection and controlling forest information using multi-temporal Landsat TM imagery.

A method was developed for relative radiometric calibration of single multitemporal Landsat TM image, several multitemporal images covering each others, and several multitemporal images covering different geographic locations. The radiometricly calibrated difference images were used for detecting rapid changes on forest stands. The nonparametric Kernel method was applied for change detection. The accuracy of the change detection was estimated by inspecting the image analysis results in field. The change classification was applied for controlling the quality of the continuously updated forest stand information. The aim was to ensure that all the manmade changes and any forest damages were correctly updated including the attribute and stand delineation information. The image analysis results were compared with the registered treatments and the stand information base. The stands with discrepancies between these two information sources were recommended to be field inspected.

Optimal Use of Treatment Modalities and Treatment Results of Osteosarcoma and Soft Tissue Sarcomas

Soft tissue sarcomas are malignant tumours of mesenchymal origin. Because of infiltrative growth pattern, simple enucleation of the tumour causes a high rate of local recurrence. Instead, these tumours should be resected with a rim of normal tissue around the tumour. Data on the adequate margin width are scarce. At Helsinki University Central Hospital (HUCH) a multidisciplinary treatment group started in 1987. Surgical resection with a wide margin (2.5 cm) is the primary aim. In case of narrower margin radiation therapy is necessary. The role of adjuvant chemotherapy remains unclear. Our aims were to study local control by the surgical margin and to develop a new prognostic tool to aid decision-making on which patients should receive adjuvant chemotherapy. Patients with soft tissue sarcoma of the extremity or the trunk wall referred to HUCH during 1987-2002 form material in Studies I and II. External validation material comes from the Lund university sarcoma registry. The smallest surgical margin of at least 2.5 centimetres yielded local control of 89 per cent at five years. Amputation rate was 9 per cent. The proposed prognostic model with necrosis, vascular invasion, size on a continuous scale, depth, location and grade worked well both in Helsinki material and in the validation material, and it also showed good calibration. Based on the present study, we recommend the smallest surgical margin of 2-3 centimetres in soft tissue sarcoma irrespective of grade. Improvement in local control was present but modest in margins wider than 1 centimetre. In cases where gaining a wider margin would lead to a considerable loss of function, smaller margin is to be considered combined to radiation therapy. Patients treated with inadequate margins should be offered radiation therapy irrespective of tumour grade. Our new prognostic model to estimate 10-year survival probability in patients with soft tissue sarcoma of the extremities or trunk wall showed good dicscrimination and calibration. For time being the prognostic model is available for scientific use and further validations. In the future, the model may aid in clinical decision-making. For operable osteosarcoma, neoadjuvant multidrug chemotherapy followed by delayed surgery and multidrug adjuvant chemotherapy is the treatment of choice. Overall survival rates at five years are approximately 75 per cent in modern trials with classical osteosarcoma. All patients diagnosed and reported to the Finnish Cancer Registry with osteosarcoma in Finland during 1971-2005 form the material in Studies III and IV. Limb-salvage rate increased from 23 per cent to 78 per cent during 1971-2005. The 10-year sarcoma-specific survival for the whole study population improved from 32 per cent to 62 per cent. It was 75 per cent for patients with a local high-grade osteosarcoma of the extremity diagnosed during 1991-2005. This study outlines the improved prognosis of osteosarcoma patients in Finland with modern chemotherapy. The 10-year survival rates are good also in an international scale. Nonetheless, their limb-salvage rate remains inferior to those seen for highly selected patient series. Overall, the centralisation of osteosarcoma treatment would most likely improve both survival and limb-salvage rates even further.

Una gramática descriptiva del chabacano de Ternate

This dissertation is a descriptive grammar of Ternate Chabacano, a Spanish-lexifier Creole spoken by 3.000 people in the town of Ternate, Philippines. The dissertation offers an analysis of the phonological, morphological, and syntactic system of the language. It includes an overview of the historical background, the current situation of the speech community and a collection of annotated texts. Ternate Chabacano shares many characteristics with its main adstrate language Tagalog as well as the dialectal varieties of Spanish. At present, English also exerts an influence, nevertheless mainly affecting its lexicon. The description offered is based on fieldwork conducted in Ternate. Spoken language collected through thematic interviews forms the main type of the material analysed. Information regarding the informants and text types is included in the examples. Ternate Chabacano has a five-vowel system and 17 consonant phonemes. The morphology of the language is largely isolating. Clitics are used extensively for expressing adverbial relations. The verbal system is based on the preverbal markers that express the category of tense, modality and aspect, among which aspect is the main dimension. Complex predicates and verbal chains are used in order to further distinguish aspect and modality, as well as changes of voice and valency. Intransitive verbs express motion, states, and reflexive actions, even though the majority of verbs can occur in both intransitive and transitive clauses. Ternate Chabacano is a nominative-accusative type language but the typological configuration of the Philippine languages influences the marking of its constituents. A case in point is constituted by the nominal determination system. The basic constituent order in a clause is VSO. Equative and attibutive clauses are formed by juxtaposition while the locative clauses feature a copula. Indefinite terms are expressed through existential constructions. The negation of existential clauses differs from standard negation but both are intensified in the same way. In spoken discourse, tag-questions are common. Pragmatic elements and social formulas reflect largely the corresponding Tagalog expressions. Coordination and subordination occur typically without overt markers but a variety of markers exists for expressing different relations, especially those made explicit by adverbial clauses. Verbal chains form a continuum from serial verbs to complementation and ultimately to coordination.