Communicative and Anticipatory Decision-making Supported by Bayesian Networks

The purpose of this research is to draw up a clear construction of an anticipatory communicative decision-making process and a successful implementation of a Bayesian application that can be used as an anticipatory communicative decision-making support system. This study is a decision-oriented and constructive research project, and it includes examples of simulated situations. As a basis for further methodological discussion about different approaches to management research, in this research, a decision-oriented approach is used, which is based on mathematics and logic, and it is intended to develop problem solving methods. The approach is theoretical and characteristic of normative management science research. Also, the approach of this study is constructive. An essential part of the constructive approach is to tie the problem to its solution with theoretical knowledge. Firstly, the basic definitions and behaviours of an anticipatory management and managerial communication are provided. These descriptions include discussions of the research environment and formed management processes. These issues define and explain the background to further research. Secondly, it is processed to managerial communication and anticipatory decision-making based on preparation, problem solution, and solution search, which are also related to risk management analysis. After that, a solution to the decision-making support application is formed, using four different Bayesian methods, as follows: the Bayesian network, the influence diagram, the qualitative probabilistic network, and the time critical dynamic network. The purpose of the discussion is not to discuss different theories but to explain the theories which are being implemented. Finally, an application of Bayesian networks to the research problem is presented. The usefulness of the prepared model in examining a problem and the represented results of research is shown. The theoretical contribution includes definitions and a model of anticipatory decision-making. The main theoretical contribution of this study has been to develop a process for anticipatory decision-making that includes management with communication, problem-solving, and the improvement of knowledge. The practical contribution includes a Bayesian Decision Support Model, which is based on Bayesian influenced diagrams. The main contributions of this research are two developed processes, one for anticipatory decision-making, and the other to produce a model of a Bayesian network for anticipatory decision-making. In summary, this research contributes to decision-making support by being one of the few publicly available academic descriptions of the anticipatory decision support system, by representing a Bayesian model that is grounded on firm theoretical discussion, by publishing algorithms suitable for decision-making support, and by defining the idea of anticipatory decision-making for a parallel version. Finally, according to the results of research, an analysis of anticipatory management for planned decision-making is presented, which is based on observation of environment, analysis of weak signals, and alternatives to creative problem solving and communication.

Identifying Genetic Risk Factors in Canine Autoimmune Disorders

Autoimmune diseases are more common in dogs than in humans and are already threatening the future of some highly predisposed dog breeds. Susceptibility to autoimmune diseases is controlled by environmental and genetic factors, especially the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) gene region. Dogs show a similar physiology, disease presentation and clinical response as humans, making them an excellent disease model for autoimmune diseases common to both species. The genetic background of canine autoimmune disorders is largely unknown, but recent annotation of the dog genome and subsequent development of new genomic tools offer a unique opportunity to map novel autoimmune genes in various breeds. Many autoimmune disorders show breed-specific enrichment, supporting a strong genetic background. Furthermore, the presence of hundreds of breeds as genetic isolates facilitates gene mapping in complex autoimmune disorders. Identification of novel predisposing genes establishes breeds as models and may reveal novel candidate genes for the corresponding human disorders. Genetic studies will eventually shed light on common biological functions and interactions between genes and the environment. This study aimed to identify genetic risk factors in various autoimmune disorders, including systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE)-related diseases, comprising immune-mediated rheumatic disease (IMRD) and steroid-responsive meningitis arteritis (SMRA) as well as Addison s disease (AD) in Nova Scotia Duck Tolling Retrievers (NSDTRs) and chronic superficial keratitis (CSK) in German Shepherd dogs (GSDs). We used two different approaches to identify genetic risk factors. Firstly, a candidate gene approach was applied to test the potential association of MHC class II, also known as a dog leukocyte antigen (DLA) in canine species. Secondly, a genome-wide association study (GWAS) was performed to identify novel risk loci for SLE-related disease and AD in NSDTRs. We identified DLA risk haplotypes for an IMRD subphenotype of SLE-related disease, AD and CSK, but not in SMRA, and show that the MHC class II gene region is a major genetic risk factor in canine autoimmune diseases. An elevated risk was found for IMRD in dogs that carried the DLA-DRB1*00601/DQA1*005011/DQB1*02001 haplotype (OR = 2.0, 99% CI = 1.03-3.95, p = 0.01) and for ANA-positive IMRD dogs (OR = 2.3, 99% CI = 1.07-5.04, p-value 0.007). We also found that DLA-DRB1*01502/DQA*00601/DQB1*02301 haplotype was significantly associated with AD in NSDTRs (OR = 2.1, CI = 1.0-4.4, P = 0.044) and the DLA-DRB1*01501/DQA1*00601/DQB1*00301 haplotype with the CSK in GSDs (OR=2.67, CI=1.17-6.44, p= 0.02). In addition, we found that homozygosity for the risk haplotype increases the risk for each disease phenotype and that an overall homozygosity for the DLA region predisposes to CSK and AD. Our results have enabled the development of genetic tests to improve breeding practices by avoiding the production of puppies homozygous for risk haplotypes. We also performed the first successful GWAS for a complex disease in dogs. With less than 100 cases and 100 controls, we identified five risk loci for SLE-related disease and AD and found strong candidate genes involved in a novel T-cell activation pathway. We show that an inbred dog population has fewer risk factors, but each of them has a stronger genetic risk. Ongoing studies aim to identify the causative mutations and bring new knowledge to help diagnostics, treatment and understanding of the aetiology of SLE-related diseases.

Luottamus koulussa : Tutkimus yhdeksännen luokan oppilaiden luottamus- ja epäluottamuskertomuksista ja niiden merkityksestä oppilaiden kouluarjessa

The aim of this study is to explore trust at school and its meaning for 9th grade students. The intent is to investigate students views about trust and mistrust in school relationships. Three research questions are posed: 1) what meanings do students give to their experiences of trust and mistrust at school and how do they evaluate connection of these experiences to their well-being and enjoyment in the classroom? 2) what and how important, is the teacher s role according to the students writings, and 3) what might the different pedagogical and administrative structures of schools reveal about trust and mistrust in a particular school culture? The data consists of 134 writings of 9th grade students (secondary school) from three schools in one of the biggest cities in Finland. The schools differ from others in terms of their pedagogical or structural backgrounds. The study is restricted to the micro-level of, disposition of Educational Sociology, focusing on trust in schools relationships. The theoretical framework of the study is trust, as a part of social capital; however trust is also approached from the sociological, the psychological and philosophical perspective. The methodological approach is narrative research concerning school practice . Analysis of narrative consist mostly content analysis, but also some elements of holistic-content reading, thematic reading and categorical content. The analysis found three main themes: 1) individual stories of trust, 2) the teachers role in making trust possible in the classroom, and 3) school as a community of trust. According to the study trust at school (1) is a complex phenomenon consisting of people s ability to work together and to recognize the demands that different situations present. Trust at school is often taken for granted. In the students experiences trust is strongly connected to friendship, and the teacher s ability to connect with students. Students experiences of mistrust stem from bulling, school violence, lack of respect as well as teachers lacking basic professional behavior. School relationships are important for some students as source of enjoyment, but some feel that it is difficult to evaluate the connection between trust and enjoyment. The study found that students trust of teachers (2) is linked to the teacher s professional role as a teacher, a caring human being open to dialogue. In other words, the students describe teachers abilities to create a sense of trust in terms of three expectations: the teacher was better, the same or worse than expected. Better than expected, means the teacher engender a high degree of trust and has excellent communication skills. Same as expected means the teacher comes across as familiar and secure, while lower than expected means the teacher creates no trust and has poor communication skills. Finally, it was shown that trust at school (3) should not only exist between some individuals, but between (all) members of the school community. In other words, according to the study there is some evidence that trust is strongly committed to school culture. Further, trust seems to depend on (school-) cultural background, values, beliefs, expectations, norms as well as staff behaviour. The basic elements of an optimum level of trust at school are favourable school structure and pedagogical background; however, good relationships between teachers and students as well as high professional skills are also needed. Trust at school is built by good communication, working together and getting to know each other.

Governance theory as a framework for empirical research : a case study on local environmental policy-making in Helsinki, Finland

Governance has been one of the most popular buzzwords in recent political science. As with any term shared by numerous fields of research, as well as everyday language, governance is encumbered by a jungle of definitions and applications. This work elaborates on the concept of network governance. Network governance refers to complex policy-making situations, where a variety of public and private actors collaborate in order to produce and define policy. Governance is processes of autonomous, self-organizing networks of organizations exchanging information and deliberating. Network governance is a theoretical concept that corresponds to an empirical phenomenon. Often, this phenomenon is used to descirbe a historical development: governance is often used to describe changes in political processes of Western societies since the 1980s. In this work, empirical governance networks are used as an organizing framework, and the concepts of autonomy, self-organization and network structure are developed as tools for empirical analysis of any complex decision-making process. This work develops this framework and explores the governance networks in the case of environmental policy-making in the City of Helsinki, Finland. The crafting of a local ecological sustainability programme required support and knowledge from all sectors of administration, a number of entrepreneurs and companies and the inhabitants of Helsinki. The policy process relied explicitly on networking, with public and private actors collaborating to design policy instruments. Communication between individual organizations led to the development of network structures and patterns. This research analyses these patterns and their effects on policy choice, by applying the methods of social network analysis. A variety of social network analysis methods are used to uncover different features of the networked process. Links between individual network positions, network subgroup structures and macro-level network patterns are compared to the types of organizations involved and final policy instruments chosen. By using governance concepts to depict a policy process, the work aims to assess whether they contribute to models of policy-making. The conclusion is that the governance literature sheds light on events that would otherwise go unnoticed, or whose conceptualization would remain atheoretical. The framework of network governance should be in the toolkit of the policy analyst.

The Contested Terrain of Globalization: Review and Conceptual Clarifications for Management Studies

The concept of globalization has become a shorthand for making sense of contemporary society. It reflects large-scale economic and social change, which affects people differently and evokes different viewpoints. Globalization is thus a highly contested concept and phenomenon. Contradictory and competing views, in turn, seem to be based on different interpretations of the present dominant forms of globalization, and of the material, economic, social and cultural conditions that these forms produce and give rise to. We view globalization not only as a significant set of economic, financial, social, political and cultural forces but as a powerful and contested discursive space. In this article, we present an overview of recent literature to introduce different thematic perspectives on globalization, to specify different ideological and discursive bases to approach globalization, and to place multinational corporations (MNC:s) within this context. Our account is not exhaustive, rather, it is intended as a basis for further discussion on the nature and role of multinational corporations in complex ”global” society

Making sense of a transnational merger: Media texts and the (re)construction of power relations

In this study of symbolic power relations in a transnational merger, we suggest that the popular media can provide a significant arena for (re)constructing national identities and power in this kind of dramatic industrial restructuring, and are an under-utilized source of empirical data in research studies. Focusing on the press coverage of a recent Swedish-Finnish merger, we specify and illustrate a particular feature of discursive (re)construction of asymmetric power relations; superior (Swedish) and inferior (Finnish) national identities, which, we argue, are embedded in the history of colonization and domination between the two nations. The findings of the present study lead us to suggest that a lens taken from post-colonial theory is particularly useful in understanding the wider symbolic power implications of international industrial restructuring.

Becoming an international man: Top manager masculinities in the making of a multinational corporation

Purpose We address gender and management in contemporary globalization by focusing on the ways in which male top managers in a multinational corporation (MNC) construct their identities in interviews with researchers. Design/methodology/approach Our qualitative analysis is based on interviews with virtually all top managers in the Nordic financial services company Nordea (53 men and two women). Findings We specify how becoming international induces a particular masculine identity for the top managers. In becoming international, however, their national identification persists. The unstability of the MNC as a political constellation leaves room for questioning the transnational identity offered. Originality/value Our findings suggest that in the global world of business, national identity can also be interpreted as something positive and productive, contrary to how it has been previously treated in feminist and men’s studies literature.

The Value of Being on the Net- the effects of Web sites of companies on consumer decision making

The unique characteristics of marketspace in combination with the fast growing number of consumers interested in e-commerce have created new research areas of interest to both marketing and consumer behaviour researchers. Consumer behaviour researchers interested in the decision making processes of consumers have two new sets of questions to answer. The first set of questions is related to how useful theories developed for a marketplace are in a marketspace context. Cyber auctions, Internet communities and the possibilities for consumers to establish dialogues not only with companies but also with other consumers make marketspace unique. The effects of these distinctive characteristics on the behaviour of consumers have not been systematically analysed and therefore constitute the second set of questions which have to be studied. Most companies feel that they have to be online even though the effects of being on the Net are not unambiguously positive. The relevance of the relationship marketing paradigm in a marketspace context have to be studied. The relationship enhancement effects of websites from the customers’ point of view are therefore emphasized in this research paper. Representatives of the Net-generation were analysed and the results show that companies should develop marketspace strategies while Net presence has a value-added effect on consumers. The results indicate that the decision making processes of the consumers are also changing as a result of the progress of marketspace

The Narrative Turn in the French Novel of the 1970s

The most important French literary movement of the 1950s and 1960s, the nouveau roman, radically questioned the idea of the novel as storytelling, claiming that narratives create a false illusion of the world’s intelligibility. However, in the 1970s storytelling finds its way back into the French novel – a shift that has been characterized as the “return of the narrative”. In my article, I argue that the “narrative turn” in the French novel of the 1970s can be seen as a turn towards a fundamentally hermeneutic view of the narrative mediatedness of our relation to the world. From a hermeneutic perspective, the nouveaux romanciers – insofar as they reject the narrative in order to disclose the discontinuous, fragmentary and chaotic nature of reality – hang onto the positivistic idea that “real” is only that which is independent of human meaning-giving processes. By contrast, the hermeneutists, such as Paul Ricoeur, consider also the human experience of the world to be real, and largely narrative in form. This view is shared by the principal novelists associated with the narrative turn, such as Michel Tournier to whom man is a “mythological animal”. However, after the nouveau roman , narratives have lost their innocence: they no longer appear as “natural” but are conscious of their own narrativity, historicity, and the way they represent only one possible – inevitably ethically and politically charged – perspective into reality. By making storytelling thematic and by telling “counter-stories” that question prevailing models of sense-making, Tournier and other “new storytellers” strive to promote critical reflection on the stories on the basis of which we orient to the world and narrate our lives – both as individuals and as communities.

Korkeakoulupolitiikan dynamiikat Suomessa

The study scrutinizes the dynamics of the Finnish higher education political system. Dynamics is understood as the regularity of interaction between actors. By actors is meant the central institutions in the system. The theoretical framework of the study draws on earlier research in political science and higher education political studies. The theoretical model for analysis is built on agenda-setting theories. The theoretical model separates two dimensions of dynamics, namely the political situation and political possibilities. A political situation can be either favourable or contradictory to change. If the institutional framework within the higher education system is not compatible with the external factors of the system, the political situation is contradictory to change. To change the situation into a favourable one, one needs either to change the institutional structure or wait for external factors to change. Then again, the political possibilities can be either settled or politicized. Politicization means that new possibilities for action are found. Settled possibilities refer to routine actions performed according to old practices. The research tasks based on the theoretical model are: 1. To empirically analyse the political situation and the possibilities from the actors point of view. 2. To theoretically construct and empirically test a model for analysis of dynamics in the Finnish higher education politics. The research material consists of 25 thematic interviews with key persons in the higher education political system in 2008. In addition, there are also documents from different actors since the 1980s and statistical data. The material is analysed in four phases. In the first phase the emphasis is on trying to understand the interviewees and actors points of view. In the second phase the different types of research material are related to each other. In the third phase the findings are related to the theoretical model, which is constructed over the course of the analysis. In the fourth phase the interpretation is tested. The research distinguishes three historical periods in the Finnish higher education system and focuses on the last one. This is the era of the complex system beginning in the 1980s 1990s. Based on the interviews, four policy threads are identified and analysed in their historical context. Each of the policy threads represents one of the four possible dynamics identified in the theoretical model. The research policy thread functions according to reform dynamics. A coalition of innovation politics is able to use the politicized possibilities due to the political situation created by the conception of the national innovation system. The regional policy thread is in a gridlock dynamics. The combination of a political system based on provincial representation, a regional higher education institutional framework and outside pressure to streamline the higher education structure created a contradictory political situation. Because of this situation, the politicized possibilities in the so-called "regional development plan" do not have much effect. In the international policy thread, a consensual change dynamics is found. Through changes in the institutional framework, the higher education political system is moulded into a favourable situation. However, the possibilities are settled: a pragmatic national gaze prevailed. A dynamics of friction is found in the governance policy thread. A political situation where political-strategic and budgetary decision-making are separated is not favourable for change. In addition, as governance policy functions according to settled possibilities, the situation seems unchangeable. There are five central findings. First, the dynamics are different depending on the policy thread under scrutiny. Second, the settled possibilities in a policy thread seemed to influence other threads the most. Third, dynamics are much related to changes external to the higher education political system, the changing positions of the actors in different policy threads and the unexpected nature of the dynamics. Fourth, it is fruitful to analyse the dynamics with the theoretical model. Fifth, but only hypothetically and thus left for further research, it seems that the Finnish higher education politics is reactive and weak at politicization.

Effect of GPS on understanding relationship between mobile map and environment : A field experiment

Objectives: GPS technology enables the visualisation of a map reader s location on a mobile map. Earlier research on the cognitive aspects of map reading identified that searching for map-environment points is an essential element for the process of determining one s location on a mobile map. Map-environment points refer to objects that are visualized on the map and are recognizable in the environment. However, because the GPS usually adds only one point to the map that has a relation to the environment, it does not provide a sufficient amount of information for self-location. The aim of the present thesis was to assess the effect of GPS on the cognitive processes involved in determining one s location on a map. Methods: The effect of GPS on self-location was studied in a field experiment. The subjects were shown a target on a mobile map, and they were asked to point in the direction of the target. In order for the map reader to be able to deduce the direction of the target, he/she has to locate himself/herself on the map. During the pointing tasks, the subjects were asked to think aloud. The data from the experiment were used to analyze the effect of the GPS on the time needed to perform the task. The subjects verbal data was used to assess the effect of the GPS on the number of landmark concepts mentioned during a task (landmark concepts are words referring to objects that can be recognized both on the map and in the environment). Results and conclusions: The results from the experiment indicate that the GPS reduces the time needed to locate oneself on a map. The analysis of the verbal data revealed that the GPS reduces the number of landmark concepts in the protocols. The findings suggest that the GPS guides the subject s search for the map-environment points and narrows the area on the map that must be searched for self-location.