Nonlinear mixture autoregressive model: economic applications

The aim of this dissertation is to model economic variables by a mixture autoregressive (MAR) model. The MAR model is a generalization of linear autoregressive (AR) model. The MAR -model consists of K linear autoregressive components. At any given point of time one of these autoregressive components is randomly selected to generate a new observation for the time series. The mixture probability can be constant over time or a direct function of a some observable variable. Many economic time series contain properties which cannot be described by linear and stationary time series models. A nonlinear autoregressive model such as MAR model can a plausible alternative in the case of these time series. In this dissertation the MAR model is used to model stock market bubbles and a relationship between inflation and the interest rate. In the case of the inflation rate we arrived at the MAR model where inflation process is less mean reverting in the case of high inflation than in the case of normal inflation. The interest rate move one-for-one with expected inflation. We use the data from the Livingston survey as a proxy for inflation expectations. We have found that survey inflation expectations are not perfectly rational. According to our results information stickiness play an important role in the expectation formation. We also found that survey participants have a tendency to underestimate inflation. A MAR model has also used to model stock market bubbles and crashes. This model has two regimes: the bubble regime and the error correction regime. In the error correction regime price depends on a fundamental factor, the price-dividend ratio, and in the bubble regime, price is independent of fundamentals. In this model a stock market crash is usually caused by a regime switch from a bubble regime to an error-correction regime. According to our empirical results bubbles are related to a low inflation. Our model also imply that bubbles have influences investment return distribution in both short and long run.

Practical Proposals for Specifying k-Nearest Neighbours Weights Matrices

In this article we introduce and evaluate testing procedures for specifying the number k of nearest neighbours in the weights matrix of spatial econometric models. The spatial J-test is used for specification search. Two testing procedures are suggested: an increasing neighbours testing procedure and a decreasing neighbours testing procedure. Simulations show that the increasing neighbours testing procedures can be used in large samples to determine k. The decreasing neighbours testing procedure is found to have low power, and is not recommended for use in practice. An empirical example involving house price data is provided to show how to use the testing procedures with real data.

Solubility and physical stability improvement of natiral xanthine derivatives

Use of natural xanthine derivates in medicine is complicated with their physical properties. Theobromine is poorly soluble while theophylline is highly sensitive to hydration. The aim of this study was to improve bioavailability of xanthines by co-crystallization, theophylline was also cocrystallized with carboxylic acids (capric, citric, glutaric, malenic, malonic, oxalic, stearic, succinic) and HPMC. Co-crystallization was performed by slow evaporation and ball milling. Physical stability was checked by wet granulation and water sorption methods, solubility was measured by intrinsic tablet dissolution. Theobromine formed co-crystal with other xanthines and theophylline interacted with all acids except stearic and HPMC, the latter showed alternative interactions based on hydrogen bonding. Hydration resistance was good in theophylline:succinic acid co-crystal and excellent in complexes containing capric, stearic acids and HPMC. Theophylline:HPMC showed improved solubility. The reported approach can promote use of xanthines and can be recommended for other compounds with similar problems.

K -shell diagram and hypersatellite spectra of 4d transition elements

The K-shell diagram (K alpha(1,2) and K beta(1,3)) and hypersatellite (HS) (K-h alpha(1,2)) spectra of Y, Zr, Mo, and Pd have been measured with high energy-resolution using photoexcitation by 90 keV synchrotron radiation. Comparison of the measured and ab initio calculated HS spectra demonstrates the importance of quantum electrodynamical (QED) effects for the HS spectra. Phenomenological fits of the measured spectra by Voigt functions yield accurate values for the shift of the HS from the diagram lines, the splitting of the HS lines, and their intensity ratio. Good agreement with theory was found for all quantities except for the intensity ratio, which is dominated by the intermediacy of the coupling of the angular momenta. The observed deviations imply that our current understanding of the variation of the coupling scheme from LS to jj across the periodic table may require some revision.

Valokuvallistettu luonto : I. K. Inhan tuotanto luonnon merkityksellistäjänä

Photographized nature I. K. Inha s work as a signification of nature The dissertation examines, through the work of the Finnish photographer and writer I. K. Inha (formerly Konrad Into Nyström) (1865 1930), the different ways in which the signification of nature is achieved. The principal material consists of Inha s work from 1890 to 1925, from which a number of photographs and texts are considered and upon which the photographization of nature is contemplated. The dissertation addresses the issue of how nature is conceived and how the act of photographizing it can be defined. The methodical context of the study is composed of three thematic baskets that structure the material and which consist of narrations on Finnish national perception, nature conservation and understanding the world. In the first case nature is seen as the natural environment encompassing lakes, seashores, forests, and hills, which at the time were often perceived from a utilitarian viewpoint. By the photographization they generated a pictorial narrative that could be shared. The natural environment was thus turned into landscape by means of photography, following the global pictorial concepts picturesque and sublime, as well as the national canons that had been developed in literature and the visual arts. In the narrations concerning nature conservation, the photographization did not merely occur within the limits of presuppositions, but rather nature was given the opportunity to unfold itself. While the photograph was being established as a basis for supporting nature conservation or to highlight the destruction of nature at the hand of Man, an attempt was made to represent subjects that were difficult to convey in photographs, such as nature s power or the miracle of growth. The thesis suggests, that in the third case the concept of nature broke away from its strict interconnection with the natural environment and led to a contemplation of nature that is perceivable in a person. In this context the photograph and the photographization are interpreted as an attempt to understand a person and his or her very existence in the world, while this same existential wonder is seen as being embodied in Inha s portrait of a rune singer and in his photographs of forest interior and water. Further, the thesis asks whether photographing nature could be interpreted as an action similar to the idea of the phenomenological reduction as a means of bypassing the photographer s prevailing way of being.

Local approximability of max-min and min-max linear programs

In a max-min LP, the objective is to maximise ω subject to Ax ≤ 1, Cx ≥ ω1, and x ≥ 0. In a min-max LP, the objective is to minimise ρ subject to Ax ≤ ρ1, Cx ≥ 1, and x ≥ 0. The matrices A and C are nonnegative and sparse: each row ai of A has at most ΔI positive elements, and each row ck of C has at most ΔK positive elements. We study the approximability of max-min LPs and min-max LPs in a distributed setting; in particular, we focus on local algorithms (constant-time distributed algorithms). We show that for any ΔI ≥ 2, ΔK ≥ 2, and ε > 0 there exists a local algorithm that achieves the approximation ratio ΔI (1 − 1/ΔK) + ε. We also show that this result is the best possible: no local algorithm can achieve the approximation ratio ΔI (1 − 1/ΔK) for any ΔI ≥ 2 and ΔK ≥ 2.

Myymälämarkkinointi osana markkinointiviestintää – Kuluttajien arvostamat tekijät päivittäistavarakaupassa. CASE: K-supermarket Torpparinmäki

Tässä tutkimuksessa tarkastellaan K-supermarket Torpparinmäen asiakkaiden arvostuksia myymälän sisäisiin toimiin liittyen. Myymälän sisäisiin toimiin lasketaan tässä tutkimuksessa kuuluvan laaja kirjo asioita kuten hinnat, tarjoukset, valikoiman laajuus eri tuoteryhmissä, elämyksellisyys, hyllysijoittelu, kaupan selkeys, asiakaspalvelu sekä viihtyisyys. Myös merkityksellisten ja vähemmän merkityksellisten asioiden toteutumisesta kyseisessä myymälässä halutaan vastauksia. Tutkimuksessa nostetaan esille myös erilaiset tiedotuskanavat kaupan markkinoinnissa. Tämän lisäksi sivutaan aihetta kuluttajien päivittäistavarakaupan valintakriteereistä. Tutkimusote on kvantitatiivinen ja kysely suoritettiin survey-tutkimuksena. Tutkimuksessa haluttiin tämän lisäksi kerätä mahdollisimman paljon myös avoimia kommentteja sekä myymälästä että päivittäistavarakaupan valintaan liittyvistä kriteereistä. K-supermarket Torpparinmäen pahin kilpailija alueellaan on S-market Torpparinmäki. Asiakkailta haluttiin kysyä avoimesti, miksi asioivat juuri kyseisessä myymälässä. Kysely suoritettiin lauantaipäivänä K-supermarket Torpparinmässä asioineille 18-89-vuotiaille henkilöille. Kyselyyn vastasi 80 asiakasta, joista 65 % oli naisia ja 35 % miehiä. Tutkimuksen viitekehys jakaa myymälämarkkinoinnin neljään pääkategoriaan: viihtyvyystekijä, palvelutekijä, hintatekijä sekä valikoimatekijä. Näiden tekijöiden merkityksiä asiakkaille haluttiin tutkimuksessa asettaa tärkeysjärjestykseen. Myös näiden tekijöiden toteumaa K-supermarket Torpparinmäessä haluttiin selvittää. Tulosten analysoinnin perusteella edellä mainituista pääkategorioista tärkeimmäksi muodostui valikoimatekijä. Valikoimien monipuolisuutta pidettiin kaikista tärkeimpänä tekijänä myymälässä. Myös luomu- ja lähiruoan valikoimia pidettiin tärkeäpänä kuin valmisruokien. Toiseksi eniten asiakkaat arvostivat asiakaspalvelua ja vasta kolmannelle sijalle päätyi hintatekijä. Neljänneksi tärkeimpänä asiakkaat pitivät viihtyvyystekijää. Mikään tekijöistä ei erottunut suuresti toisistaan, mutta erot olivat kuitenkin selkeitä.