Nonlinear mixture autoregressive model: economic applications

The aim of this dissertation is to model economic variables by a mixture autoregressive (MAR) model. The MAR model is a generalization of linear autoregressive (AR) model. The MAR -model consists of K linear autoregressive components. At any given point of time one of these autoregressive components is randomly selected to generate a new observation for the time series. The mixture probability can be constant over time or a direct function of a some observable variable. Many economic time series contain properties which cannot be described by linear and stationary time series models. A nonlinear autoregressive model such as MAR model can a plausible alternative in the case of these time series. In this dissertation the MAR model is used to model stock market bubbles and a relationship between inflation and the interest rate. In the case of the inflation rate we arrived at the MAR model where inflation process is less mean reverting in the case of high inflation than in the case of normal inflation. The interest rate move one-for-one with expected inflation. We use the data from the Livingston survey as a proxy for inflation expectations. We have found that survey inflation expectations are not perfectly rational. According to our results information stickiness play an important role in the expectation formation. We also found that survey participants have a tendency to underestimate inflation. A MAR model has also used to model stock market bubbles and crashes. This model has two regimes: the bubble regime and the error correction regime. In the error correction regime price depends on a fundamental factor, the price-dividend ratio, and in the bubble regime, price is independent of fundamentals. In this model a stock market crash is usually caused by a regime switch from a bubble regime to an error-correction regime. According to our empirical results bubbles are related to a low inflation. Our model also imply that bubbles have influences investment return distribution in both short and long run.

Pre-eclampsia : The role of soluble VEGF receptor-1 and related anti-angiogenic factors beyond

Pre-eclampsia is a pregnancy complication that affects about 5% of all pregnancies. It is known to be associated with alterations in angiogenesis -related factors, such as vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF). An excess of antiangiogenic substances, especially the soluble receptor-1 of VEGF (sVEGFR-1), has been observed in maternal circulation after the onset of the disease, probably reflecting their increased placental production. Smoking reduces circulating concentrations of sVEGFR-1 in non-pregnant women, and in pregnant women it reduces the risk of pre-eclampsia. Soluble VEGFR-1 acts as a natural antagonist of VEGF and placental growth factor (PlGF) in human circulation, holding a promise for potential therapeutic use. In fact, it has been used as a model to generate a fusion protein, VEGF Trap , which has been found effective in anti-angiogenic treatment of certain tumors and ocular diseases. In the present study, we evaluated the potential use of maternal serum sVEGFR-1, Angiopoietin-2 (Ang-2) and endostatin, three central anti-angiogenic markers, in early prediction of subsequent pre-eclampsia. We also studied whether smoking affects circulating sVEGFR-1 concentrations in pregnant women or their first trimester placental secretion and expression in vitro. Last, in order to allow future discussion on the potential therapy based on sVEGFR-1, we determined the biological half-life of endogenous sVEGFR-1 in human circulation, and measured the concomitant changes in free VEGF concentrations. Blood or placental samples were collected from a total of 268 pregnant women between the years 2001 2007 in Helsinki University Central Hospital for the purposes above. The biomarkers were measured using commercially available enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA). For the analyses of sVEGFR-1, Ang-2 and endostatin, a total of 3 240 pregnant women in the Helsinki area were admitted to blood sample collection during two routine ultrasoundscreening visits at 13.7 ± 0.5 (mean ± SD) and 19.2 ± 0.6 weeks of gestation. Of them, 49 women later developing pre-eclampsia were included in the study. Their disease was further classified as mild in 29 and severe in 20 patients. Isolated early-onset intrauterine growth retardation (IUGR) was diagnosed in 16 women with otherwise normal medical histories and uncomplicated pregnancies. Fifty-nine women remaining normotensive, non-proteinuric and finally giving birth to normal-weight infants were picked to serve as the control population of the study. Maternal serum concentrations of Ang-2, endostatin and sVEGFR-1, were increased already at 16 20 weeks of pregnancy, about 13 weeks before the clinical manifestation of preeclampsia. In addition, these biomarkers could be used to identify women at risk with a moderate precision. However, larger patient series are needed to determine whether these markers could be applied for clinical use to predict preeclampsia. Intrauterine growth retardation (IUGR), especially if noted at early stages of pregnancy and not secondary to any other pregnancy complication, has been suggested to be a form of preeclampsia compromising only the placental sufficiency and the fetus, but not affecting the maternal endothelium. In fact, IUGR and preeclampsia have been proposed to share a common vascular etiology in which factors regulating early placental angiogenesis are likely to play a central role. Thus, these factors have been suggested to be involved in the pathogenesis of IUGR. However, circulating sVEGFR-1, Ang-2 and endostatin concentrations were unaffected by subsequent IUGR at early second trimester. Furthermore, smoking was not associated with alterations in maternal circulating sVEGFR-1 or its placental production. The elimination of endogenous sVEGFR-1 after pregnancy was calculated from serial samples of eight pregnant women undergoing elective Caesarean section. As typical for proteins in human compartments, the elimination of sVEGFR-1 was biphasic, containing a rapid halflife of 3.4 h and a slow one of 29 h. The decline in sVEGFR-1 concentrations after mid-trimester legal termination of pregnancy was accompanied with a simultaneous increase in the serum levels of free VEGF so that within a few days after pregnancy VEGF dominated in the maternal circulation. Our study provides novel information on the kinetics of endogenous sVEGFR-1, which serves as a potential tool in the development of new strategies against diseases associated with angiogenic imbalance and alterations in VEGF signaling.

The role of inflammation and matrix proteins in airway remodelling

Asthma is a chronic inflammatory disorder of the airways. Remodelling in asthma is defined as the structural changes seen in the airways of asthmatics in comparison to healthy controls. Progressive loss of lung function also seen in asthma might be caused by remodelling. The research aims of this thesis were to investigate inflammation and remodelling in the airways of different types of asthmatics and smokers. The association between inflammation and remodelling was also examined in a mouse model of allergic airway inflammation. Healthy smokers showed increased numbers of macrophages in the BAL with no changes in the inflammatory cells in biopsies. Macrophages seemed to be quite quiescent, since mRNA expression for a wide variety of inflammatory mediators, especially chemokines CCL3, CCL4, CCL5 and CCL20, secreted by macrophages was significantly lower than in healthy non-smokers. Attenuated macrophage activity in the airway lumen may render smokers more susceptible to airway infections and have an impact on the development of other airway pathology. Patients with diisocyanate-induced asthma (DIA) on inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) who still had non-specific bronchial hyperreactivity (NSBHR) at the end of the follow-up showed increased expression of TNF-α, IL-6 and IL-15 mRNA in BAL cells compared to those without NSBHR. In addition to being markers for poor prognosis and possible slight glucocorticoid resistance, these cytokines might aid in guiding the treatment of DIA. The increase in the thickness of tenascin-C layer in the bronchial basement membrane (BM) was much less than usually seen in other types of asthma, which might not make tenascin-C a good marker for DIA. OVA-induced tenascin-C expression in the lung was attenuated in STAT4-/- mice with impaired Th1-type immunity compared to WT mice. Interestingly, STAT6-/- mice with impaired Th2-type immunity showed tenascin-C expression levels similar to those of WT mice. The clearest difference between these two knockout strains in response to OVA was that STAT4-/- mice exhibited no upregulation of IFN-γ and TNF-α mRNA expression. Thus, tenascin-C expression was unexpectedly more related to Th1 type reactions. In vitro studies confirmed the results. Human fibroblasts stimulated by TNF-α and IFN-γ showed increased expression of tenascin-C. Patients with newly diagnosed asthma showed increased expression of laminin α2 in the bronchial BM in comparison to patients with asthma symptoms only and healthy controls. Both patients with asthma and those with only asthma symptoms showed increased expression of the laminin β2 chain in comparison to controls. Thus, laminin α2 expression differentiated patients with clinical asthma from patients with symptoms only. Furthermore, the expression of laminin α2 and β2 was associated with NSBHR, linking very specific remodelling events to clinical findings.

Cox-2, tenascin, CRP, and ingraft chimerism in a model of post-transplant obliterative bronchiolitis

Chronic rejection in the form of obliterative bronchiolitis (OB) is the major cause of death 5 years after lung transplantation. The exact mechanism of OB remains unclear. This study focused on the role of cyclo-oxygenase (COX) -2, tenascin, and C-reactive protein (CRP) expression, and the occurrence of ingraft chimerism (= cells from two genetically distinct individuals in a same individual) in post-transplant OB development. In our porcine model, OB developed invariably in allografts, while autografts stayed patent. The histological changes were similar to those seen in human OB. In order to delay or prevent obliteration, animals were medicated according to certain protocol. In the beginning of the bronchial allograft reaction, COX-2 induction occurred in airway epithelial cells prior to luminal obliteration. COX-2 expression in macrophages and fibroblasts paralleled the onset of inflammation and fibroblast proliferation. This study demonstrated for the first time, that COX-2 expression is associated with the early stage of post- transplant obliterative airway disease. Tenascin expression in the respiratory epithelium appeared to be predictive of histologic features observed in human OB, and influx of immune cells. Expression in the bronchial wall and in the early obliterative lesions coincided with the onset of onset of fibroblast and inflammatory cell proliferation in the early stage of OB and was predictive of further influx of inflammatory and immune cells. CRP expression in the bronchial wall coincided with the remodelling process. High grade of bronchial wall CRP staining intensity predicted inflammation, accelerated fibroproliferation, and luminal obliteration, which are all features of OB. In the early obliterative plaque, majority of cells expressed CRP, but in mature, collagen-rich plaque, expression declined. Local CRP expression might be a response to inflammation and it might promote the development of OB. Early appearance of chimeric (= recipient-derived) cells in the graft airway epithelium predicted epithelial cell injury and obliteration of the bronchial lumen, which both are features of OB. Chimeric cells appeared in the airway epithelium after repair following transplantation-induced ischemic injury. Ingraft chimerism might be a mechanism to repair alloimmune-mediated tissue injury and to protect allografts from rejection after transplantation. The results of this study indicate, that COX-2, tenascin, CRP, and ingraft chimerism have a role in OB development. These findings increase the understanding of the mechanisms of OB, which may be beneficial in further development of diagnostic options.

Temperature-Sensitive Src-Transformed Mdck Cells nn 3d Cultures as a Model of Malignant Transformation of Epithelial Cells

The equilibrium between cell proliferation, differentiation, and apoptosis is crucial for maintaining homeostasis in epithelial tissues. In order for the epithelium to function properly, individual cells must gain normal structural and functional polarity. The junctional proteins have an important role both in binding the cells together and in taking part in cell signaling. Cadherins form adherens junctions. Cadherins initiate the polarization process by first recognizing and binding the neighboring cells together, and then guiding the formation of tight junctions. Tight junctions form a barrier in dividing the plasma membranes to apical and basolateral membrane domains. In glandular tissues, single layered and polarized epithelium is folded into tubes or spheres, in which the basal side of the epithelial layer faces the outer basal membrane, and the apical side the lumen. In carcinogenesis, the differentiated architecture of an epithelial layer is disrupted. Filling of the luminal space is a hallmark of early epithelial tumors in tubular and glandular structures. In order for the transformed tumor cells to populate the lumen, enhanced proliferation as well as inhibition of apoptosis is required. Most advances in cancer biology have been achieved by using two-dimensional (2D) cell culture models, in which the cells are cultured on flat surfaces as monolayers. However, the 2D cultures are limited in their capacity to recapitulate the structural and functional features of tubular structures and to represent cell growth and differentiation in vivo. The development of three-dimensional (3D) cell culture methods enables the cells to grow and to be studied in a more natural environment. Despite the wide use of 2D cell culture models and the development of novel 3D culture methods, it is not clear how the change of the dimensionality of culture conditions alters the polarization and transformation process and the molecular mechanisms behind them. Src is a well-known oncogene. It is found in focal and adherens junctions of cultured cells. Active src disrupts cell-cell junctions and interferes with cell-matrix binding. It promotes cell motility and survival. Src transformation in 2D disrupts adherens junctions and the fibroblastic phenotype of the cells. In 3D, the adherens junctions are weakened, and in glandular structures, the lumen is filled with nonpolarized vital cells. Madin-Darby canine kidney (MDCK) cells are an epithelial cell type commonly used as a model for cell polarization. Its-src-transformed variants are useful model systems for analyzing the changes in cell morphology, and they play a role in src-induced malignant transformation. This study investigates src-transformed cells in 3D cell cultures as a model for malignant transformation. The following questions were posed. Firstly: What is the role of the composition and stiffness of the extracellular matrix (ECM) on the polarization and transformation of ts v-src MDCK cells in 3D cell cultures? Secondly: How do the culture conditions affect gene expression? What is the effect of v-src transformation in 2D and in 3D cell models? How does the shift from 2D to 3D affect cell polarity and gene expression? Thirdly: What is the role of survivin and its regulator phosphatase and tensin homolog protein (PTEN) in cell polarization and transformation, and in determining cell fate? How does their expression correlate with impaired mitochondrial function in transformed cells? In order to answer the above questions, novel methods of culturing and monitoring cells had to be created: novel 3D methods of culturing epithelial cells were engineered, enabling real time monitoring of a polarization and transformation process, and functional testing of 3D cell cultures. Novel 3D cell culture models and imaging techniques were created for the study. Attention was focused especially on confocal microscopy and live-cell imaging. Src-transformation disturbed the polarization of the epithelium by disrupting cell adhesion, and sensitized the cells to their environment. With active src, the morphology of the cell cluster depended on the composition and stiffness of the matrix. Gene expression studies revealed a broader impact of src transformation than mere continuous activity of src-kinase. In 2D cultures, src transformation altered the expression of immunological, actin cytoskeleton and extracellular matrix (ECM). In 3D, the genes regulating cell division, inhibition of apoptosis, cell metabolism, mitochondrial function, actin cytoskeleton and mechano-sensing proteins were altered. Surprisingly, changing the culture conditions from 2D to 3D affected also gene expression considerably. The microarray hit survivin, an inhibitor of apoptosis, played a crucial role in the survival and proliferation of src-transformed cells.

Role of GDNF and its Cross-Talk with Other Growth Factors in the Dopaminergic System

Parkinson´s Disease (PD) is a neurodegenerative movement disorder resulting from loss of dopaminergic (DA) neurons in substantia nigra (SN). Possible causative treatment strategies for PD include neurotrophic factors, which protect and in some cases restore the function of dopaminergic neurons. Glial cell line-derived neurotrophic factor (GDNF) family of neurotrophic factors have been to date the most promising candidates for treatment of PD, demonstrating both neuroprotective and neurorestorative properties. We have investigated the role of GDNF in the rodent dopaminergic system and its possible crosstalk with other growth factors. We characterized the GDNF-induced gene expression changes by DNA microarray analysis in different neuronal systems, including in vitro cultured Neuro2A cells treated with GDNF, as well as midbrains from GDNF heterozygous (Hz) knockout mice. These microarray experiments, resulted in the identification of GDNF-induced genes, which were also confirmed by other methods. Further analysis of the dopaminergic system of GDNF Hz mice demonstrated about 40% reduction in GDNF levels, revealed increased intracellular dopamine concentrations and FosB/DeltaFosB expression in striatal areas. These animals did not show any significant changes in behavioural analysis of acute and repeated cocaine administration on locomotor activity, nor did they exhibit any changes in dopamine output following treatment with acute cocaine. We further analysed the significance of GDNF receptor RET signalling in dopaminergic system of MEN2B knock-in animals with constitutively active Ret. The MEN2B animals showed a robust increase in extracellular dopamine and its metabolite levels in striatum, increased tyrosine hydroxylase (TH) and dopamine transporter (DAT) protein levels by immunohistochemical staining and Western blotting, as well as increased Th mRNA levels in SN. MEN2B mice had increased number of DA neurons in SN by about 25% and they also exhibited increased sensitivity to the stimulatory effects of cocaine. We also developed a semi-throughput in vitro micro-island assay for the quantification of neuronal survival and TH levels by computer-assisted methodology from limited amounts of tissue. This assay can be applied for the initial screening for dopaminotrophic molecules, as well as chemical drug library screening. It is applicable to any neuronal system for the screening of neurotrophic molecules. Since our microarray experiments revealed possible GDNF-VEGF-C crosstalk we further concentrated on studying the neurotrophic effects of VEGF-C. We showed that VEGF-C acts as a neurotrophic molecule for the DA neurons both in vitro and in vivo, however without additive effect when used together with GDNF. The neuroprotective effect for VEGF-C in vivo in rat 6-OHDA model of PD was demonstrated. The possible signalling mechanisms of VEGF-C in the nervous system were investigated - infusion of VEGF-C to rat brain induced ERK activation, however no direct activation of RET signalling in vitro was found. VEGF-C treatment of rat striatum lead to up-regulation of VEGFR-1-3, indicating that VEGF-C can regulate the expression level of its own receptor. VEGF-C dopaminotrophic activity in vivo was further supported by increased vascular tissue in the neuroprotection experiments.

The Role of Electronic Word of Mouth in Shaping Consumer Attitudes

The purpose of this research was to investigate the role of electronic word of mouth (eWOM) in shaping consumer attitudes towards various products and services with concentration on the consumer attitude change. eWOM has long been proven to play an important role in influencing consumer attitudes and has been researched from a variety of perspectives. This study attempts to look deeper into the process of consumer attitude change by applying as the central theory of the study the Elaboration Likelihood Model of Persuasion by Petty and Cacioppo. In the processes of examining the background academic and empirical research the Internet and Web 2.0 are closely depicted in order to understand how throughout the past centuries technology allowed the rise of various mediums where consumers can not only share their opinions online about products and services but also communicate with other consumers. Manuel Castel’s Internet Galaxy, Gildin’s, Carl and Noland’s, Hennig-Thurau, Gwinner, Walsh and Gremler’s researches on eWOM are the central works that helped to shape both the theoretical and empirical parts of this study. The mixed method approach was chosen as a research method for this study. An online survey was conducted via the Surveymonkey.com platform and eight qualitative in-depth interviews were conducted. The results of the study show that central route queues as text quality and text argumentativeness are more prominent among the research subjects and the peripheral route queues: source credibility and source expertise did not show considerable significance. Also more experience and participation consumers have with user-rating websites and applications more inclined they are to elaborate on the central route cues and are more likely to search for opinions that they consider rational and credible. Also these respondents are less inclined to search for ratings that confirm their existing beliefs about products or services. Less experience/participation they have about eWOM more likely they are to search for reviews confirmatory to their own.