48 resultados para pipeline life prediction


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In the 21st century, human-induced global climate change has been highlighted as one of the most serious threats to ecosystems worldwide. According to global climate scenarios, the mean temperature in Finland is expected to increase by 1.8 4.0°C by the end of the century. The regional and seasonal change in temperature has predicted to be spatially and temporally asymmetric, where the High-Arctic and Antarctic areas and winter and spring seasons have been projected to face the highest temperature increase. To understand how species respond to the ongoing climate change, we need to study how climate affects species in different phases of their life cycle. The impact of climate on breeding and migration of eight large-sized bird species was studied in this thesis, taking food availability into account. The findings show that climatic variables have considerable impact on the life-history traits of large-sized birds in northern Europe. The magnitude of climatic effects on migration and breeding was comparable with that of food supply, conventionally regarded as the main factor affecting these life-history traits. Based on the results of this thesis and the current climate scenarios, the following not mutually exclusive responses are possible in the near future. Firstly, asymmetric climate change may result in a mistiming of breeding because mild winters and early spring may lead to earlier breeding, whereas offspring are hatching into colder conditions which elevate mortality. Secondly, climate induced responses can differ between species with different breeding tactics (income vs. capital breeding), so that especially capital breeders can gain advantage on global warming as they can sustain higher energy resources. Thirdly, increasing precipitation has the potential to reduce the breeding success of many species by exposing nestlings to more severe post-hatching conditions and hampering the hunting conditions of parents. Fourthly, decreasing ice cover and earlier ice-break in the Baltic Sea will allow earlier spring migration in waterfowl. In eiders, this can potentially lead to more productive breeding. Fifthly, warming temperatures can favour parents preparing for breeding and increase nestling survival. Lastly, the climate-induced phenological changes in life history events will likely continue. Furthermore, interactions between climate and food resources can be complex and interact with each other. Eiders provide an illustrative example of this complexity, being caught in the crossfire between more benign ice conditions and lower salinity negatively affecting their prime food resource. The general conclusion is that climate is controlling not only the phenology of the species but also their reproductive output, thus affecting the entire population dynamics.

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Individuals face variable environmental conditions during their life. This may be due to migration, dispersion, environmental changes or, for example, annual variation in weather conditions. Genetic adaptation to a novel environment happens through natural selection. Phenotypic plasticity allows, however, a quick individual response to a new environment. Phenotypic plasticity may also be beneficial for individual if the environment is highly variable. For example, eggs are costly to produce. If the food conditions vary significantly between breeding seasons it is useful to be able to adjust the clutch and egg size according to the food abundance. In this thesis I use Ural owl vole system to study phenotypic plasticity and natural selection using a number of reproduction related traits. The Ural owl (Strix uralensis) is a long-lived and sedentary species. The reproduction and survival of the Ural owl, in fact their whole life, is tied to the dramatically fluctuating vole densities. Ural owls do not cause vole cycles but they have to adjust their behaviour to the rather predictable population fluctuations of these small mammals. Earlier work with this system has shown that Ural owl laying date and clutch size are plastic in relation to vole abundance. Further, individual laying date clutch size reaction norms have been shown to vary in the amount of plasticity. My work extends the knowledge of natural selection and phenotypic plasticity in traits related to reproduction. I show that egg size, timing of the onset of incubation and nest defense aggressiveness are plastic traits with fitness consequences for the Ural owl. Although egg size is in general thought to be a fixed characteristic of an individual, this highly heritable trait in the Ural owl is also remarkably plastic in relation to the changes in vole numbers, Ural owls are laying the largest eggs when their prey is most abundant. Timing of the onset of incubation is an individual-specific property and plastic in relation to clutch size. Timing of incubation is an important underlying cause for asynchronous hatching in birds. Asynchronous hatching is beneficial to offspring survival in Ural owl. Hence, timing of the onset of incubation may also be under natural selection. Ural owl females also adjust their nest defense aggressiveness according to the vole dynamics, being most aggressive in years when they produce the largest broods. Individual females show different levels of nest defense aggressiveness. Aggressiveness is positively correlated with the phenotypic plasticity of aggressiveness. As elevated nest defense aggressiveness is selected for, it may promote the plasticity of aggressive nest defense behaviour. All the studied traits are repeatable or heritable on individual level, and their expression is either directly or indirectly sensitive to changes in vole numbers. My work considers a number of important fitness-related traits showing phenotypic plasticity in all of them. Further, in two chapters I show that there is individual variation in the amount of plasticity exhibited. These findings on plasticity in reproduction related traits suggest that variable environments indeed promote plasticity.

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Growth is a fundamental aspect of life cycle of all organisms. Body size varies highly in most animal groups, such as mammals. Moreover, growth of a multicellular organism is not uniform enlargement of size, but different body parts and organs grow to their characteristic sizes at different times. Currently very little is known about the molecular mechanisms governing this organ-specific growth. The genome sequencing projects have provided complete genomic DNA sequences of several species over the past decade. The amount of genomic sequence information, including sequence variants within species, is constantly increasing. Based on the universal genetic code, we can make sense of this sequence information as far as it codes proteins. However, less is known about the molecular mechanisms that control expression of genes, and about the variations in gene expression that underlie many pathological states in humans. This is caused in part by lack of information about the second genetic code that consists of the binding specificities of transcription factors and the combinatorial code by which transcription factor binding sites are assembled to form tissue-specific and/or ligand-regulated enhancer elements. This thesis presents a high-throughput assay for identification of transcription factor binding specificities, which were then used to measure the DNA binding profiles of transcription factors involved in growth control. We developed ‘enhancer element locator’, a computational tool, which can be used to predict functional enhancer elements. A genome-wide prediction of human and mouse enhancer elements generated a large database of enhancer elements. This database can be used to identify target genes of signaling pathways, and to predict activated transcription factors based on changes in gene expression. Predictions validated in transgenic mouse embryos revealed the presence of multiple tissue-specific enhancers in mouse c- and N-Myc genes, which has implications to organ specific growth control and tumor type specificity of oncogenes. Furthermore, we were able to locate a variation in a single nucleotide, which carries a susceptibility to colorectal cancer, to an enhancer element and propose a mechanism by which this SNP might be involved in generation of colorectal cancer.

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Long-term monitoring data collected from wild smolts of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) in the Simojoki river, northern Finland, were used in studying the relationships between the smolt size and age, smolt and postsmolt migration, environmental conditions and postsmolt survival. The onset of the smolt run was significantly dependent on the rising water temperature and decreasing discharge of the river in the spring. The mean length of smolts migrating early in the season was commonly higher and the mean age always older than among smolts migrating later. Many of the smolts migrating early in the season and almost all smolts migrating later had started their new growth in spring in the river before their sea entry. Among postsmolts, the time required for emigration from the estuary was dependent on the sea surface temperature (SST) off the river, being significantly shorter in years with warm than cold sea temperatures. After leaving the estuary, the postsmolts migrated southwards along the eastern coast of the northern Gulf of Bothnia, the geographical distribution of the tag recoveries coinciding with the warm thermal zone in spring in the coastal area. After arriving in the southern Gulf of Bothnia in late summer the postsmolts mostly migrated near the western coast, reaching the Baltic Main Basin in late autumn. Until the early 1990s there was only a weak positive association between smolt length and postsmolt survival. However, following a subsequent decrease in the mean smolt size, a significant positive dependence was observed between smolt size and the reported recapture rate of tagged salmon. The differences in recapture rates between smolts tagged during the first and second half of the annual migration season were insignificant, indicating that the seasonal variation in smolt size and age seem to be too small to affect survival. Among the climatic factors examined, the summer SST in the Gulf of Bothnia was most clearly related to the survival of the wild postsmolts. Postsmolt survival appeared to be highest in years when the SST in June in the Bothnian Bay varied between 9 and 12 ºC. In addition, the survival of wild postsmolts showed a significant positive dependence on the SST in July in the Bothnian Sea, but not on the abundance of the prey fish (0+ herring, Clupea harengus and sprat, Sprattus sprattus) in the Bothnian Sea and in the Baltic Main Basin. The results suggest, that if the incidence of extreme weather conditions were to increase due to climatic changes, it would probably reduce the postsmolt survival of wild salmon populations. For improving the performance of hatchery-reared smolts, it could be useful to examine opportunities to produce smolts that are in their smolt traits and abilities more similar to the wild smolts described in this thesis.

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The life cycle and genetic diversity of the red alga Furcellaria lumbricalis (Hudson) Lamouroux were investigated in 15 populations in northern Europe. The occurrence of different life cycle phases and seasonality of reproduction were studied in four brackish populations in the northern Baltic Sea. Furthermore, a new method, based on genome screening with ISSR markers combined with a restriction-ligation method, was developed to discover microsatellite markers for population genetic analyses. The mitochondrial DNA cox2-3 spacer sequence and four microsatellite markers were used to examine the genetic diversity and differentiation of red algal populations in northern Europe. In addition, clonality and small-scale genetic structure of one Irish and four Baltic Sea populations were studied with microsatellite markers. It was discovered that at the low salinities of the northern Baltic Sea, only tetrasporophytes and males were present in the populations of F. lumbricalis and that winter was the main season for tetrasporangial production. Furthermore, the population occurring at the lowest salinity (3.6 practical salinity units, psu) did not produce spores. The size of the tetraspores was smaller in the Baltic Sea populations than that in the Irish population, and there were more deformed spores in the Baltic Sea populations than in the Irish populations. Studies with microsatellite markers indicated that clonality is a common phenomenon in the Baltic Sea populations of F. lumbricalis, although the proportion of clonal individuals varied among populations. Some genetic divergence occurred within locations both in Ireland and in the northern Baltic Sea. Even though no carpogonia were detected in the field samples during the study, the microsatellite data indicated that sexual reproduction occurs at least occasionally in the northern Baltic Sea. The genetic diversity of F. lumbricalis was highest in Brittany, France. Since no variation was discovered in the mtDNA cox2-3 spacer sequence, which is generally regarded as an informative phylogeographic marker in red algae, it can be assumed that the studied populations probably share the same origin.

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Most studies of life history evolution are based on the assumption that species exist at equilibrium and spatially distinct separated populations. In reality, this is rarely the case, as populations are often spatially structured with ephemeral local populations. Therefore, the characteristics of metapopulations should be considered while studying factors affecting life history evolution. Theoretical studies have examined spatial processes shaping the evolution of life history traits to some extent, but there is little empirical data and evidence to investigate model predictions. In my thesis I have tried to bridge the gap between theoretical and empirical studies by using the well-known Glanville fritillary (Melitaea cinxia) metapopulation as a model system. The long-term persistence of classic metapopulations requires sufficient dispersal to establish new local populations to compensate for local extinctions. Previous studies on the Glanville fritillary have shown that females establishing new populations are not a random sample from the metapopulation, but they are in fact more dispersive than females in old populations. Many other life-history traits, such as body size, fecundity and lifespan, may be related to dispersal rate. Therefore, I examined a range of correlated traits for their evolutionary and ecological consequences. I was particularly interested in how the traits vary under natural environmental conditions, hence all studies were conducted in a large (32 x 26 m) outdoor population cage built upon a natural habitat patch. Individuals for the experiments were sampled from newly-established and old populations within a large metapopulation. Results show that females originating from newly-established populations had higher within-habitat patch mobility than females from old populations. I showed that dispersal rate is heritable and that flight activity is related to variation in a gene encoding the glycolytic enzyme phosphoglucose isomerase. Both among-individual and among-population variation in dispersal are correlated with the reproductive performance of females, though I found no evidence for a trade-off between dispersal and fecundity in terms of lifetime egg production or clutch size. Instead, the results suggest that highly dispersive females from newly-established populations have a shorter lifespan than females from old populations, and that dispersive females may pay a cost in terms of reduced lifetime reproductive success due to increased time spent outside habitat patches. In summary, the results of this thesis show that genotype-dependent dispersal rate correlates with other life history traits in the Glanville fritillary, and that the rapid turnover of local populations (extinctions and re-colonisations) is likely to be the mechanism that maintains phenotypic variation in many life history traits at the metapopulation level.

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Thirty percent of 70-year-old women have osteoporosis; after age of 80 its prevalence is up to 70%. Postmenopausal women with osteoporosis seem to be at an increased risk for cardiovascular events, and deterioration of oral health, as shown by attachment loss of teeth, which is proportional to the severity of osteoporosis. Osteoporosis can be treated with many different medication, e.g. estrogen and alendronate. We randomized 90 elderly osteoporotic women (65-80 years of age) to receive hormone therapy (HT)(2mg E2+NETA), 10mg alendronate, and their combination for two years and compared their effects on bone mineral density (BMD) and turnover, two surrogate markers of the risk of cardiovascular diseases, C-reactive protein (CRP) and E-selectin, as well as oral health. The effect of HT on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) was studied in the population-based cohort of 1663 postmenopausal women (mean age 68 yr) (585 estrogen users and 1078 non-users). BMD was measured with dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) at 0, 12 and 24 months. Urinary N-telopeptide (NTX) of type I collagen, a marker of bone resorption, and serum aminoterminal propeptide of human type I procollagen (PINP), a marker of bone formation, were measured every six months of treatment. Serum CRP and E-selectin, were measured at 0, 6, and 12 months. Dental, and periodontal conditions, and gingival crevicular fluid (GCF) matrix metalloproteinase (MMP)-8 levels were studied to evaluate the oral health status and for the mouth symptoms a structured questionnaire was used. The HRQoL was measured with 15D questionnaire. Lumbar spine BMD increased similarly in all treatment groups (6.8-8.4% and 9.1-11.2%). Only HT increased femoral neck BMD at both 12 (4.9%) and 24 months (5.8%), at the latter time point the HT group differed significantly from the other groups. HT reduced bone marker levels of NTX and PINP significantly less than other two groups.Oral HT significantly increased serum CRP level by 76.5% at 6 and by 47.1% (NS) at 12 months, and decreased serum E-selectin level by 24.3% and 30.0%. Alendronate had no effect on these surrogate markers. Alendronate caused a decrease in the resting salivary flow rate and tended to increase GCF MMP-8 levels. Otherwise, there was no effect on the parameters of oral health. HT improved the HRQoL of elderly women significantly on the dimensions of usual activities, vitality and sexual activity, but the overall improvement in HRQoL was neither statistically significant nor clinically important. In conclusion, bisphosphonates might be the first option to start the treatment of postmenopausal osteoporosis in the old age.

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Assessment of the outcome of critical illness is complex. Severity scoring systems and organ dysfunction scores are traditional tools in mortality and morbidity prediction in intensive care. Their ability to explain risk of death is impressive for large cohorts of patients, but insufficient for an individual patient. Although events before intensive care unit (ICU) admission are prognostically important, the prediction models utilize data collected at and just after ICU admission. In addition, several biomarkers have been evaluated to predict mortality, but none has proven entirely useful in clinical practice. Therefore, new prognostic markers of critical illness are vital when evaluating the intensive care outcome. The aim of this dissertation was to investigate new measures and biological markers of critical illness and to evaluate their predictive value and association with mortality and disease severity. The impact of delay in emergency department (ED) on intensive care outcome, measured as hospital mortality and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) at 6 months, was assessed in 1537 consecutive patients admitted to medical ICU. Two new biological markers were investigated in two separate patient populations: in 231 ICU patients and 255 patients with severe sepsis or septic shock. Cell-free plasma DNA is a surrogate marker of apoptosis. Its association with disease severity and mortality rate was evaluated in ICU patients. Next, the predictive value of plasma DNA regarding mortality and its association with the degree of organ dysfunction and disease severity was evaluated in severe sepsis or septic shock. Heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1) is a potential regulator of apoptosis. Finally, HO-1 plasma concentrations and HO-1 gene polymorphisms and their association with outcome were evaluated in ICU patients. The length of ED stay was not associated with outcome of intensive care. The hospital mortality rate was significantly lower in patients admitted to the medical ICU from the ED than from the non-ED, and the HRQoL in the critically ill at 6 months was significantly lower than in the age- and sex-matched general population. In the ICU patient population, the maximum plasma DNA concentration measured during the first 96 hours in intensive care correlated significantly with disease severity and degree of organ failure and was independently associated with hospital mortality. In patients with severe sepsis or septic shock, the cell-free plasma DNA concentrations were significantly higher in ICU and hospital nonsurvivors than in survivors and showed a moderate discriminative power regarding ICU mortality. Plasma DNA was an independent predictor for ICU mortality, but not for hospital mortality. The degree of organ dysfunction correlated independently with plasma DNA concentration in severe sepsis and plasma HO-1 concentration in ICU patients. The HO-1 -413T/GT(L)/+99C haplotype was associated with HO-1 plasma levels and frequency of multiple organ dysfunction. Plasma DNA and HO-1 concentrations may support the assessment of outcome or organ failure development in critically ill patients, although their value is limited and requires further evaluation.