198 resultados para likelihood to publication
Resumo:
The purpose of this study is to analyze and develop various forms of abduction as a means of conceptualizing processes of discovery. Abduction was originally presented by Charles S. Peirce (1839-1914) as a "weak", third main mode of inference -- besides deduction and induction -- one which, he proposed, is closely related to many kinds of cognitive processes, such as instincts, perception, practices and mediated activity in general. Both abduction and discovery are controversial issues in philosophy of science. It is often claimed that discovery cannot be a proper subject area for conceptual analysis and, accordingly, abduction cannot serve as a "logic of discovery". I argue, however, that abduction gives essential means for understanding processes of discovery although it cannot give rise to a manual or algorithm for making discoveries. In the first part of the study, I briefly present how the main trend in philosophy of science has, for a long time, been critical towards a systematic account of discovery. Various models have, however, been suggested. I outline a short history of abduction; first Peirce's evolving forms of his theory, and then later developments. Although abduction has not been a major area of research until quite recently, I review some critiques of it and look at the ways it has been analyzed, developed and used in various fields of research. Peirce's own writings and later developments, I argue, leave room for various subsequent interpretations of abduction. The second part of the study consists of six research articles. First I treat "classical" arguments against abduction as a logic of discovery. I show that by developing strategic aspects of abductive inference these arguments can be countered. Nowadays the term 'abduction' is often used as a synonym for the Inference to the Best Explanation (IBE) model. I argue, however, that it is useful to distinguish between IBE ("Harmanian abduction") and "Hansonian abduction"; the latter concentrating on analyzing processes of discovery. The distinctions between loveliness and likeliness, and between potential and actual explanations are more fruitful within Hansonian abduction. I clarify the nature of abduction by using Peirce's distinction between three areas of "semeiotic": grammar, critic, and methodeutic. Grammar (emphasizing "Firstnesses" and iconicity) and methodeutic (i.e., a processual approach) especially, give new means for understanding abduction. Peirce himself held a controversial view that new abductive ideas are products of an instinct and an inference at the same time. I maintain that it is beneficial to make a clear distinction between abductive inference and abductive instinct, on the basis of which both can be developed further. Besides these, I analyze abduction as a part of distributed cognition which emphasizes a long-term interaction with the material, social and cultural environment as a source for abductive ideas. This approach suggests a "trialogical" model in which inquirers are fundamentally connected both to other inquirers and to the objects of inquiry. As for the classical Meno paradox about discovery, I show that abduction provides more than one answer. As my main example of abductive methodology, I analyze the process of Ignaz Semmelweis' research on childbed fever. A central basis for abduction is the claim that discovery is not a sequence of events governed only by processes of chance. Abduction treats those processes which both constrain and instigate the search for new ideas; starting from the use of clues as a starting point for discovery, but continuing in considerations like elegance and 'loveliness'. The study then continues a Peircean-Hansonian research programme by developing abduction as a way of analyzing processes of discovery.
Resumo:
Approximately 125 prehistoric rock paintings have been found in the modern territory of Finland. The paintings were done with red ochre and are almost without exception located on steep lakeshore cliffs associated with ancient water routes. Most of the sites are found in the central and eastern parts of the country, especially on the shores of Lakes Päijänne and Saimaa. Using shore displacement chronology, the art has been dated to ca. 5000 – 1500 BC. It was thus created mainly during the Stone Age and can be associated with the so-called ‘Comb Ware’ cultures of the Subneolithic period. The range of motifs is rather limited, consisting mainly of schematic depictions of stick-figure humans, elks, boats, handprints and geometric signs. Few paintings include any evidence of narrative scenes, making their interpretation a rather difficult task. In Finnish archaeological literature, the paintings have traditionally been associated with ’sympathetic’ hunting magic, or the belief that the ritual shooting of the painted animals would increase hunting luck. Some writers have also suggested totemistic and shamanistic readings of the art. This dissertation is a critical review of the interpretations offered of Finnish rock art and an exploration of the potentials of archaeological and ethnographic research in increasing our knowledge of its meaning. Methods used include ’formal’ approaches such as archaeological excavation, landscape analysis and the application of neuropsychological research to the study of rock art, as well as ethnographically ’informed’ approaches that make use of Saami and Baltic Finnish ethnohistorical sources in interpretation. In conclusion, it is argued that although North European hunter-gatherer rock art is often thought to lie beyond the reach of ‘informed’ knowledge, the exceptional continuity of prehistoric settlement in Finland validates the informed approach in the interpretation of Finnish rock paintings. The art can be confidently associated with shamanism of the kind still practiced by the Saami of Northern Fennoscandia in the historical period. Evidence of similar shamanistic practices, concepts and cosmology are also found in traditional Finnish-Karelian epic poetry. Previous readings of the art based on ‘hunting magic’ and totemism are rejected. Most of the paintings appear to depict experiences of falling into a trance, of shamanic metamorphosis and trance journeys, and of ‘spirit helper’ beings comparable to those employed by the Saami shaman (noaidi). As demonstrated by the results of an excavation at the rock painting of Valkeisaari, the painted cliffs themselves find a close parallel in the Saami cult of the 'sieidi', or sacred cliffs and boulders worshipped as expressing a supernatural power. Like the Saami, the prehistoric inhabitants of the Finnish Lake Region seem to have believed that certain cliffs were ’alive’ and inhabited by the spirit helpers of the shaman. The rock paintings can thus be associated with shamanic vision quests, and the making of ‘art’ with an effort to socialize the other members of the community, especially the ritual specialists, with trance visions. However, the paintings were not merely to be looked at. The red ochre handprints pressed on images of elks, as well as the fact that many paintings appear ’smeared’, indicate that they were also to be touched – perhaps in order to tap into the supernatural potency inherent in the cliff and in the paintings of spirit animals.
Resumo:
The purpose of this study is to find a framework for a holistic approach to, and form a conceptual toolbox for, investigating changes in signs and in their interpretation. Charles S. Peirce s theory of signs in a communicative perspective is taken as a basis for the framework. The concern directing the study is the problem of a missing framework in analysing signs of visual artefacts from a holistic perspective as well as that of the missing conceptual tools. To discover the possibility of such a holistic approach to semiosic processes and to form a conceptual toolbox the following issues are discussed: i) how the many Objects with two aspects involved in Peirce s definition of sign-action, promote multiple semiosis arising from the same sign by the same Interpretant depending on the domination of the Objects; ii) in which way can the relation of the individual and society or group be made more apparent in the construction of the self since this construction is intertwined with the process of meaning-creation and interpretation; iii) how to account for the fundamental role of emotions in semiosis, and the relation of emotions with the often neglected topic of embodiment; iv) how to take into account the dynamic, mediating and processual nature of sign-action in analysing and understanding the changes in signs and in the interpretation of signs. An interdisciplinary approach is chosen for this dissertation. Concepts that developed within social psychology, developmental psychology, neurosciences and semiotics, are discussed. The common aspect of the approaches is that they in one way or another concentrate on mediation provided by signs in explaining human activity and cognition. The holistic approach and conceptual toolbox found are employed in a case study. This consists of an analysis of beer brands including a comparison of brands from two different cultures. It becomes clear that different theories and approaches have mutual affinities and do complement each other. In addition, the affinities in different disciplines somewhat provide credence to the various views. From the combined approach described, it becomes apparent that by the semiosic process, the emerging semiotic self intertwined with the Umwelt, including emotions, can be described. Seeing the interpretation and meaning-making through semiosis allows for the analysis of groups, taking into account the embodied and emotional component. It is concluded that emotions have a crucial role in all human activity, including so-called reflective thinking, and that emotions and embodiment should be consciously taken into account in analysing signs, the interpretation, and in changes of signs and interpretations from both the social and individual level. The analysis of the beer labels expresses well the intertwined nature of the relationship between signs, individual consumers and society. Many direct influences from society on the label design are found, and also some indirect attitude changes that become apparent from magazines, company reports, etc. In addition, the analysis brings up the issues of the unifying tendency of the visual artefacts of different cultures, but also demonstrates that the visual artefacts are able to hold the local signs and meanings, and sometimes are able to represent the local meanings although the signs have changed in the unifying process.
Resumo:
The aim of this study is to examine the relationship of the Roman villa to its environment. The villa was an important feature of the countryside intended both for agricultural production and for leisure. Manuals of Roman agriculture give instructions on how to select a location for an estate. The ideal location was a moderate slope facing east or south in a healthy area and good neighborhood, near good water resources and fertile soils. A road or a navigable river or the sea was needed for transportation of produce. A market for selling the produce, a town or a village, should have been nearby. The research area is the surroundings of the city of Rome, a key area for the development of the villa. The materials used consist of archaeological settlement sites, literary and epigraphical evidence as well as environmental data. The sites include all settlement sites from the 7th century BC to 5th century AD to examine changes in the tradition of site selection. Geographical Information Systems were used to analyze the data. Six aspects of location were examined: geology, soils, water resources, terrain, visibility/viewability and relationship to roads and habitation centers. Geology was important for finding building materials and the large villas from the 2nd century BC onwards are close to sources of building stones. Fertile soils were sought even in the period of the densest settlement. The area is rich in water, both rainfall and groundwater, and finding a water supply was fairly easy. A certain kind of terrain was sought over very long periods: a small spur or ridge shoulder facing preferably south with an open area in front of the site. The most popular villa resorts are located on the slopes visible from almost the entire Roman region. A visible villa served the social and political aspirations of the owner, whereas being in the villa created a sense of privacy. The area has a very dense road network ensuring good connectivity from almost anywhere in the region. The best visibility/viewability, dense settlement and most burials by roads coincide, creating a good neighborhood. The locations featuring the most qualities cover nearly a quarter of the area and more than half of the settlement sites are located in them. The ideal location was based on centuries of practical experience and rationalized by the literary tradition.
Resumo:
This thesis presents an interdisciplinary analysis of how models and simulations function in the production of scientific knowledge. The work is informed by three scholarly traditions: studies on models and simulations in philosophy of science, so-called micro-sociological laboratory studies within science and technology studies, and cultural-historical activity theory. Methodologically, I adopt a naturalist epistemology and combine philosophical analysis with a qualitative, empirical case study of infectious-disease modelling. This study has a dual perspective throughout the analysis: it specifies the modelling practices and examines the models as objects of research. The research questions addressed in this study are: 1) How are models constructed and what functions do they have in the production of scientific knowledge? 2) What is interdisciplinarity in model construction? 3) How do models become a general research tool and why is this process problematic? The core argument is that the mediating models as investigative instruments (cf. Morgan and Morrison 1999) take questions as a starting point, and hence their construction is intentionally guided. This argument applies the interrogative model of inquiry (e.g., Sintonen 2005; Hintikka 1981), which conceives of all knowledge acquisition as process of seeking answers to questions. The first question addresses simulation models as Artificial Nature, which is manipulated in order to answer questions that initiated the model building. This account develops further the "epistemology of simulation" (cf. Winsberg 2003) by showing the interrelatedness of researchers and their objects in the process of modelling. The second question clarifies why interdisciplinary research collaboration is demanding and difficult to maintain. The nature of the impediments to disciplinary interaction are examined by introducing the idea of object-oriented interdisciplinarity, which provides an analytical framework to study the changes in the degree of interdisciplinarity, the tools and research practices developed to support the collaboration, and the mode of collaboration in relation to the historically mutable object of research. As my interest is in the models as interdisciplinary objects, the third research problem seeks to answer my question of how we might characterise these objects, what is typical for them, and what kind of changes happen in the process of modelling. Here I examine the tension between specified, question-oriented models and more general models, and suggest that the specified models form a group of their own. I call these Tailor-made models, in opposition to the process of building a simulation platform that aims at generalisability and utility for health-policy. This tension also underlines the challenge of applying research results (or methods and tools) to discuss and solve problems in decision-making processes.
Resumo:
Työ käsittelee Finnish Jabal Haroun Project -tutkimusryhmän Etelä-Jordaniasta inventoimalla keräämää arkeologista aineistoa (vuosilta 1999-2005) tietutkimuksen kannalta. Työn tarkoituksena on selvittää, miksi tutkimusalueella, Aaronin vuoren ympäristössä, sijaitsee tien jäänteitä ja miten tie on maastossa muinoin kulkenut. Lisäksi työ analysoi tien varsilla havaittujen rakennusten jäännösten suhdetta tiehen ja pyrkii ajoittamaan tien käyttöajankohdan (ajankohdat). Työn alkuoletuksena on, että pääosa tienvarsirakennuksista on liitettävissä tiehen ja tien sijoittuminen tutkimusalueelle johtuu pitkälti lähistöllä sijaitsevan Petran noususta merkittäväksi, Nabatealaisten harjoittaman kaupan keskukseksi, Lähi-idässä ajanlaskun alkuun mennessä. Tien jäänteitä tarkastellaan maisema-arkeologisin perustein. Tämä tarkoittaa sitä, että analyysissä korostuvat sekä kulttuuriset että ympäristölliset vaikuttimet. Niiden välistä, aikaan sidottua, suhdetta arvioidaan menneen ihmistoiminnan selittämiseksi. Tutkimusmenetelmät ovat paikkatietojärjestelmien soveltaminen, kohdekohtainen arkeologisen aineiston ja sijainnin tutkiminen, vertailevan aineiston käyttö sekä kolmiulotteinen tarkastelu. Tie ajoitetaan tienvarsikohteiden keramiikkalöytöjen avulla sekä rakenneanalyysin perusteella. Tutkimus osoittaa tien syntyneen alueen sijainnin takia. Sijainti oli edullinen suhteessa luonnonvaroihin, asutuskeskuksiin ja luontaisiin kulkuväyliin. Tien rakentajat osasivat taidokkaasti hyödyntää alueen luonnonpiirteitä ja käyttivät erityisiä menetelmiä vaikeiden tieosuuksien turvaamiseksi luonnonvoimien tuhoilta. Suurin osa tienvarsirakenteista voidaan katsoa johtuvan suoraan tien olemassaolosta, pieni osa rakenteista palveli pääsääntöisesti muita maankäytön muotoja. Petran vaikutus tien olemassaoloon ja muotoon oli suuri, kaupungin kehitys ja kukoistus näkyvät tiehen liitettävässä arkeologisessa aineistossa. Tien aktiivinen käyttö näyttää jatkuneen myös Roomalaisaikaan ensimmäisille vuosisadoille jKr., jonka jälkeen se hitaasti hiipui.
Resumo:
This thesis combines a computational analysis of a comprehensive corpus of Finnish lake names with a theoretical background in cognitive linguistics. The combination results on the one hand in a description of the toponymic system and the processes involved in analogy-based naming and on the other hand some adjustments to Construction Grammar. Finnish lake names are suitable for this kind of study, as they are to a large extent semantically transparent even when relatively old. There is also a large number of them, and they are comprehensively collected in a computer database. The current work starts with an exploratory computational analysis of co-location patterns between different lake names. Such an analysis makes it possible to assess the importance of analogy and patterns in naming. Prior research has suggested that analogy plays an important role, often also in cases where there are other motivations for the name, and the current study confirms this. However, it also appears that naming patterns are very fuzzy and that their nature is somewhat hard to define in an essentially structuralist tradition. In describing toponymic structure and the processes involved in naming, cognitive linguistics presents itself as a promising theoretical basis. The descriptive formalism of Construction Grammar seems especially well suited for the task. However, now productivity becomes a problem: it is not nearly as clear-cut as the latter theory often assumes, and this is even more apparent in names than in more traditional linguistic material. The varying degree of productivity is most naturally described by a prototype-based theory. Such an approach, however, requires some adjustments to onstruction Grammar. Based on all this, the thesis proposes a descriptive model where a new name -- or more generally, a new linguistic expression -- can be formed by conceptual integration from either a single prior example or a construction generalised from a number of different prior ones. The new model accounts nicely for various aspects of naming that are problematic for the traditional description based on analogy and patterns.
Resumo:
Seat belts are effective safety devices used to protect car occupants from severe injuries and fatalities during road vehicle accidents. Despite the proven effectiveness of seat belts, seat belt use rates are quite low, especially in developing countries, such as Turkey. The general aim of the present study was to investigate a large variety of factors related to seat belt use among Turkish car occupants using different perspectives and methods and therefore, to contribute to the design of effective seat belt use interventions for increasing seat belt use rates in Turkey. Five sub-studies were conducted within the present study. In the first sub-study, environmental (e.g., road type) and psycho-social factors (e.g., belt use by other car occupants) related to the seat belt use of front-seat occupants were investigated using observation techniques. Being male, of a young age, and traveling on city roads were the main factors negatively related to seat belt use. Furthermore, seat belt use by the drivers and front-seat passengers was highly correlated and a significant predictors of each other. In the second sub-study, the motivations of the car occupants for seat belt use and non-use were investigated using interview techniques. Situational conditions, such as traveling on city roads and for short distances, and not believing in the effectiveness and relevance of seat belt use for safety, were the most frequently reported reasons for not using a seat belt. Safety, habit and avoiding punishment were among the most frequently reported reasons for using a seat belt. In the third sub-study, the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and the Health Belief Model (HBM) were applied to seat belt use using Structural Equation Modeling techniques. The TPB model showed a good fit to the data, whereas the HBM showed a poor fit to the data. Within the TPB model, attitude and subjective norm were significant predictors of intentions to use a seat belt on both urban and rural roads. In the fourth sub-study, seat belt use frequency and motivations for seat belt use among taxi drivers were investigated and compared between free-time and work-time driving using a survey. The results showed that taxi drivers used seat belts more when driving a private car in their free-times compared to when driving a taxi during their work-times. The lack of a legal obligation to use a seat belt in city traffic and fear of being attacked or robbed by the passengers were found as two specific reasons for not using a seat belt when driving a taxi. Lastly, in the fifth sub-study, the relationship of seat belt use to driver and health behaviors was investigated using a survey. Although seat belt use was related both to health and driver behaviors, factor analysis results showed that it grouped with driver behaviors. Based on the results of the sub-studies, a tentative empirical model showing different predictors of seat belt use was proposed. According to the model, safety and normative motivations and perceived physical barriers related to seat belt use are the three important predictors of seat belt use. Keywords: Seat belt use; environmental factors; psycho-social factors; safety and normative motivations; the Theory of Planned Behavior; the Health Belief Model; health behaviors; driver behaviors; front-seat occupants; taxi drivers; Turkey.
Resumo:
Aptitude-based student selection: A study concerning the admission processes of some technically oriented healthcare degree programmes in Finland (Orthotics and Prosthetics, Dental Technology and Optometry). The data studied consisted of conveniencesamples of preadmission information and the results of the admission processes of three technically oriented healthcare degree programmes (Orthotics and Prosthetics, Dental Technology and Optometry) in Finland during the years 1977-1986 and 2003. The number of the subjects tested and interviewed in the first samples was 191, 615 and 606, and in the second 67, 64 and 89, respectively. The questions of the six studies were: I. How were different kinds of preadmission data related to each other? II. Which were the major determinants of the admission decisions? III. Did the graduated students and those who dropped out differ from each other? IV. Was it possible to predict how well students would perform in the programmes? V. How was the student selection executed in the year 2003? VI. Should clinical vs. statistical prediction or both be used? (Some remarks are presented on Meehl's argument: "Always, we might as well face it, the shadow of the statistician hovers in the background; always the actuary will have the final word.") The main results of the study were as follows: Ability tests, dexterity tests and judgements of personality traits (communication skills, initiative, stress tolerance and motivation) provided unique, non-redundant information about the applicants. Available demographic variables did not bias the judgements of personality traits. In all three programme settings, four-factor solutions (personality, reasoning, gender-technical and age-vocational with factor scores) could be extracted by the Maximum Likelihood method with graphical Varimax rotation. The personality factor dominated the final aptitude judgements and very strongly affected the selection decisions. There were no clear differences between graduated students and those who had dropped out in regard to the four factors. In addition, the factor scores did not predict how well the students performed in the programmes. Meehl's argument on the uncertainty of clinical prediction was supported by the results, which on the other hand did not provide any relevant data for rules on statistical prediction. No clear arguments for or against the aptitude-based student selection was presented. However, the structure of the aptitude measures and their impact on the admission process are now better known. The concept of "personal aptitude" is not necessarily included in the values and preferences of those in charge of organizing the schooling. Thus, obviously the most well-founded and cost-effective way to execute student selection is to rely on e.g. the grade point averages of the matriculation examination and/or written entrance exams. This procedure, according to the present study, would result in a student group which has a quite different makeup (60%) from the group selected on the basis of aptitude tests. For the recruiting organizations, instead, "personal aptitude" may be a matter of great importance. The employers, of course, decide on personnel selection. The psychologists, if consulted, are responsible for the proper use of psychological measures.
Resumo:
The synchronization of neuronal activity, especially in the beta- (14-30 Hz) /gamma- (30 80 Hz) frequency bands, is thought to provide a means for the integration of anatomically distributed processing and for the formation of transient neuronal assemblies. Thus non-stimulus locked (i.e. induced) gamma-band oscillations are believed to underlie feature binding and the formation of neuronal object representations. On the other hand, the functional roles of neuronal oscillations in slower theta- (4 8 Hz) and alpha- (8 14 Hz) frequency bands remain controversial. In addition, early stimulus-locked activity has been largely ignored, as it is believed to reflect merely the physical properties of sensory stimuli. With human neuromagnetic recordings, both the functional roles of gamma- and alpha-band oscillations and the significance of early stimulus-locked activity in neuronal processing were examined in this thesis. Study I of this thesis shows that even the stimulus-locked (evoked) gamma oscillations were sensitive to high-level stimulus features for speech and non-speech sounds, suggesting that they may underlie the formation of early neuronal object representations for stimuli with a behavioural relevance. Study II shows that neuronal processing for consciously perceived and unperceived stimuli differed as early as 30 ms after stimulus onset. This study also showed that the alpha band oscillations selectively correlated with conscious perception. Study III, in turn, shows that prestimulus alpha-band oscillations influence the subsequent detection and processing of sensory stimuli. Further, in Study IV, we asked whether phase synchronization between distinct frequency bands is present in cortical circuits. This study revealed prominent task-sensitive phase synchrony between alpha and beta/gamma oscillations. Finally, the implications of Studies II, III, and IV to the broader scientific context are analysed in the last study of this thesis (V). I suggest, in this thesis that neuronal processing may be extremely fast and that the evoked response is important for cognitive processes. I also propose that alpha oscillations define the global neuronal workspace of perception, action, and consciousness and, further, that cross-frequency synchronization is required for the integration of neuronal object representations into global neuronal workspace.