The Power of Bootstrap Tests of Cointegration Rank with Financial Time Series

Bootstrap likelihood ratio tests of cointegration rank are commonly used because they tend to have rejection probabilities that are closer to the nominal level than the rejection probabilities of the correspond- ing asymptotic tests. The e¤ect of bootstrapping the test on its power is largely unknown. We show that a new computationally inexpensive procedure can be applied to the estimation of the power function of the bootstrap test of cointegration rank. The bootstrap test is found to have a power function close to that of the level-adjusted asymp- totic test. The bootstrap test estimates the level-adjusted power of the asymptotic test highly accurately. The bootstrap test may have low power to reject the null hypothesis of cointegration rank zero, or underestimate the cointegration rank. An empirical application to Euribor interest rates is provided as an illustration of the findings.

Vain hätapua? : Taloudellinen avustaminen diakoniatyön professionaalisen itseymmärryksen ilmentäjänä

Financial Help Alone? Financial help as an exponent of professional diaconal work One essential form of helping people in the Evangelical Lutheran Church s diaconal work is providing economic aid. It can be seen as work which is in accordance with the spirit of the Church Order (4:3). One of the tasks of diaconal work, determined by the Church Order, is to help those whose distress is the greatest and who have no other source of help. This financial support has become a permanent and essential working method, which has also created tension of various kinds. Financial support has been criticized, especially when the support has been used to fill a gap in the social services provided by the government. It has been argued that diaconal work has been forced to take on responsibility for tasks that belong to the welfare state. The tensions involved in the financial support of diaconal work do not only concern the patching up and supplementing of the deficiencies in the welfare state s services but also the question of diaconal workers self-understanding of financial support and how it relates to their professionalism. In this thesis, I examine the experiences and visions diaconal workers have concerning financial support in their work with clients. The viewpoint of my work is the diaconal workers own experiences and interpretations of the meaning of financial support in customer service. In the articles of my thesis, I examined the meanings that diaconal workers gave to financial support in the aspects of work motivation, empowerment, expertise and tensions. The research material of my articles consists of three different data, which are theme interviews from diaconal workers, a survey from diaconal workers of Espoo and a diaconal barometer of 2009. I have analysed the theme interviews and the survey using qualitative content analysis. The results of my articles showed that diaconal workers motivation in tasks concerning economic aid was sustained by the nature and spiritual aspects of support activities. Work that supported empowerment through financial assistance meant influencing the client s personal life, community and local ties and structural circumstances of the surrounding society. Diaconal workers expertise in financial support work can be characterised as horizontal, which means that the expertise was built on acknowledging the client s dignity, the uniqueness of the client s life situation and listening to the client s own voice. Diaconal workers were also experts in community and area-based work. The tensions in financial support work are linked to its unofficial and undefined role in the field of social welfare and the inability of other aiding parties to respond to their duties. The results of my thesis on the experiences and visions of financial support reveal that it is multilateral and multidimensional. Diaconal workers used financial support to help the clients, taking into account their individual, communal, social and spiritual context. The professionalism of this financial support is reflectively related to the client s need of help and the spontaneity and unexpectedness of the situation. Support work was deeply bound to diaconal workers experiences of spirituality as the basic value in their work, the foundation of their idea of humanity and their method of helping others. In different tasks of financial support diaconal workers balanced between traditional, individual client work based on caritas and working methods which are based on supporting the individual s empowerment and active citizenship, as in postmodern social work. Diaconal workers experiences of financial support illustrated the transition or turning point in the professionalism of diaconal work, which involves finding one s own, stronger and clearer professional identity than earlier with respect to other helpers in society. Creating a unique identity is part of the empowerment process of diaconal work, in which it must define its professional role by itself. In postmodern pluralism and the fragmented context of diaconal activities, the question arose as to whether the spiritual traditions and traditional values of diaconal work support the modifications and adaptations needed in new, unpredictable situations. Diaconal work is said to be fast to react, able to predict changes and adapt to those changes. To preserve its sensitive reactive ability, also in the complex postmodern world, it must retain its own views and orientations. Otherwise, the distinctive values and traditions of diaconal work might sustain static diaconal work, employee-centeredness and a smug attitude when defining beneficiaries and needs, which highlights the paternalism of diaconal work. Such paternalism may complicate the progress of working methods which are based on empowerment and citizenship.

Taloustilanteen heikkenemisestä johtuvat muutokset asuntosijoittamiseen pääkaupunkiseudulla 2008

Tutkielman tavoitteena on selvittää miten taloustaantuma vaikutti asuntosijoittamisen kiinnostavuuteen ja asuntomarkkinoilla käytävään keskusteluun vuonna 2008. Tuolloin Suomen talous taantui voimakkaasti ja nopeasti yllättäen myös ennusteita laativat asiantuntijat. Ekonomistien lausunnoista puuttui yhdenmukaisuus ja tarkkuus. Ne myös saattoivat muuttua merkittävästi lyhyellä aikavälillä. Taantumassa sijoitusviestintä on varovaista ja tarkasti muotoiltua. Sijoittajat uskovat mielellään muiden sijoittajien mielipiteitä ja käsityksiä vaikkei niiden taustalla olisikaan aina todennettua faktatietoa. Asiantuntijoiden tilastoihin halutaan uskoa vaikka niitä kohtaan koetaan epäilyksiä. Toisaalta asuntosijoittamisen kannattavuuteen ja taloudelliseen tuottoon halutaan uskoa vaikka asiantuntijat voisivat todistaa toisin. Tutkimus toteutettiin kvalitatiivisena tapaustutkimuksena jota analysoitiin Greimasin aktanttimallia mukaillen. Tutkimusaineisto koostui 14 Helsingin Sanomissa julkaistuista asuntosijoittamiseen liittyvistä artikkelista sekä 13 Taloussanomien keskustelupalstalla julkaistusta mielipidekirjoituksesta. Viestien merkityksiä käytiin läpi semioottisesti määrittelemällä eri aktanteille rooleja. Tarinassa sijoittajasubjektin objektina on asunto, jonka avulla pyritään saavuttamaan mahdollisimman suuri rahallinen tuotto. Lähettäjiä ovat muun muassa tilastojen laatijat ja sijoitusneuvojat. Kaikki optimaalisen sijoituspäätöksen tekemiseen vaikuttavat aktantit käydään tarkemmin läpi tutkimuksen loppupuolella.

Community-based Ecotourism as a Sustainable Development Option in the Taita Hills, Kenya

This study aims at identifying the existing and potential resources, as well as recognizing the hinderances, for community-based ecotourism development in the Taita Hills in south-eastern Kenya. The indigenous mountain rain forests on the hills are rich in biodiversity, but severely degraded because of encroachment caused by the dynamics of increased population, socio-politics and economics. The research problems are based on the hypothesis that there is no tourism in the Taita Hills generating income for the local economy and high population density combined with poverty creates a need for alternative employment opportunities as well as for sustainable ways of forest resource management. The data for this study was gathered during two field trips in Kenya, in January-February 2004 and 2005, as a part of the Taita Project within the Department of Geography at the University of Helsinki. The qualitative methods used consist of RRA and PRA techniques, in-depth interviews, a structured questionnaire and literature analysis as well as attendance on excursions and a workshop with conservation experts and officials. Four case areas in the Taita Hills are studied. The study concludes that alternative livelihoods are needed among the Taita Hills´ rural population and community-based ecotourism is seen as a way of bringing financial benefits for households as well as reviving the fading cultural traditions and indigenous knowledge about forest use. The governmental policies, district level development plans and some NGOs support ecotourism development. The Forest Act 2005 forms base for local participation in forest management. The unique natural features, the welcoming Taita-culture and the location in the coastal tourism circle favour Taita Hills. However, this kind of development has its risks, such as too rapid change of sorest usage level and the exposure of communities to an ecotourism treadmill process. The costbenefit ration of marketing for hard ecotourists is generally low and the tourism infrastructure needs upgrading in the Taita Hills. More tight collaboration is important between the different level stakeholders working for conservation and development. Community-based ecotourism in Taita Hills, when carefully planned and managed, could be one opportunity for Kenya to diversify its tourism product supply and for forestadjacent communities to gain tangible benefits on a sustainable basis from forests.