Country-scale carbon accounting of the vegetation and mineral soils of Finland

The increase in global temperature has been attributed to increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG), mainly that of CO2. The threat of severe and complex socio-economic and ecological implications of climate change have initiated an international process that aims to reduce emissions, to increase C sinks, and to protect existing C reservoirs. The famous Kyoto protocol is an offspring of this process. The Kyoto protocol and its accords state that signatory countries need to monitor their forest C pools, and to follow the guidelines set by the IPCC in the preparation, reporting and quality assessment of the C pool change estimates. The aims of this thesis were i) to estimate the changes in carbon stocks vegetation and soil in the forests in Finnish forests from 1922 to 2004, ii) to evaluate the applied methodology by using empirical data, iii) to assess the reliability of the estimates by means of uncertainty analysis, iv) to assess the effect of forest C sinks on the reliability of the entire national GHG inventory, and finally, v) to present an application of model-based stratification to a large-scale sampling design of soil C stock changes. The applied methodology builds on the forest inventory measured data (or modelled stand data), and uses statistical modelling to predict biomasses and litter productions, as well as a dynamic soil C model to predict the decomposition of litter. The mean vegetation C sink of Finnish forests from 1922 to 2004 was 3.3 Tg C a-1, and in soil was 0.7 Tg C a-1. Soil is slowly accumulating C as a consequence of increased growing stock and unsaturated soil C stocks in relation to current detritus input to soil that is higher than in the beginning of the period. Annual estimates of vegetation and soil C stock changes fluctuated considerably during the period, were frequently opposite (e.g. vegetation was a sink but soil was a source). The inclusion of vegetation sinks into the national GHG inventory of 2003 increased its uncertainty from between -4% and 9% to ± 19% (95% CI), and further inclusion of upland mineral soils increased it to ± 24%. The uncertainties of annual sinks can be reduced most efficiently by concentrating on the quality of the model input data. Despite the decreased precision of the national GHG inventory, the inclusion of uncertain sinks improves its accuracy due to the larger sectoral coverage of the inventory. If the national soil sink estimates were prepared by repeated soil sampling of model-stratified sample plots, the uncertainties would be accounted for in the stratum formation and sample allocation. Otherwise, the increases of sampling efficiency by stratification remain smaller. The highly variable and frequently opposite annual changes in ecosystem C pools imply the importance of full ecosystem C accounting. If forest C sink estimates will be used in practice average sink estimates seem a more reasonable basis than the annual estimates. This is due to the fact that annual forest sinks vary considerably and annual estimates are uncertain, and they have severe consequences for the reliability of the total national GHG balance. The estimation of average sinks should still be based on annual or even more frequent data due to the non-linear decomposition process that is influenced by the annual climate. The methodology used in this study to predict forest C sinks can be transferred to other countries with some modifications. The ultimate verification of sink estimates should be based on comparison to empirical data, in which case the model-based stratification presented in this study can serve to improve the efficiency of the sampling design.

Exhaled nitric oxide : Variability and association with bronchial hyperresponsiveness and atopy

Airway inflammation is a key feature of bronchial asthma. In asthma management, according to international guidelines, the gold standard is anti-inflammatory treatment. Currently, only conventional procedures (i.e., symptoms, use of rescue medication, PEF-variability, and lung function tests) were used to both diagnose and evaluate the results of treatment with anti-inflammatory drugs. New methods for evaluation of degree of airway inflammation are required. Nitric oxide (NO) is a gas which is produced in the airways of healthy subjects and especially produced in asthmatic airways. Measurement of NO from the airways is possible, and NO can be measured from exhaled air. Fractional exhaled NO (FENO) is increased in asthma, and the highest concentrations are measured in asthmatic patients not treated with inhaled corticosteroids (ICS). Steroid-treated patients with asthma had levels of FENO similar to those of healthy controls. Atopic asthmatics had higher levels of FENO than did nonatopic asthmatics, indicating that level of atopy affected FENO level. Associations between FENO and bronchial hyperresponsiveness (BHR) occur in asthma. The present study demonstrated that measurement of FENO had good reproducibility, and the FENO variability was reasonable both short- and long-term in both healthy subjects and patients with respiratory symptoms or asthma. We demonstrated the upper normal limit for healthy subjects, which was 12 ppb calculated from two different healthy study populations. We showed that patients with respiratory symptoms who did not fulfil the diagnostic criteria of asthma had FENO values significantly higher than in healthy subjects, but significantly lower than in asthma patients. These findings suggest that BHR to histamine is a sensitive indicator of the effect of ICS and a valuable tool for adjustment of corticosteroid treatment in mild asthma. The findings further suggest that intermittent treatment periods of a few weeks’ duration are insufficient to provide long-term control of BHR in patients with mild persistent asthma. Moreover, during the treatment with ICS changes in BHR and changes in FENO were associated. FENO level was associated with BHR measured by a direct (histamine challenge) or indirect method (exercise challenge) in steroid-naïve symptomatic, non-smoking asthmatics. Although these associations could be found only in atopics, FENO level in nonatopic asthma was also increased. It can thus be concluded that assessment of airway inflammation by measuring FENO can be useful for clinical purposes. The methodology of FENO measurements is now validated. Especially in those patients with respiratory symptoms who did not fulfil the diagnostic criteria of asthma, FENO measurement can aid in treatment decisions. Serial measurement of FENO during treatment with ICS can be a complementary or an alternative method for evaluation in patients with asthma.

Analysis of Atmospheric Particle Formation Events

Atmospheric aerosol particle formation events can be a significant source for tropospheric aerosols and thus influence the radiative properties and cloud cover of the atmosphere. This thesis investigates the analysis of aerosol size distribution data containing particle formation events, describes the methodology of the analysis and presents time series data measured inside the Boreal forest. This thesis presents a methodology to identify regional-scale particle formation, and to derive the basic characteristics such as growth and formation rates. The methodology can also be used to estimate concentration and source rates of the vapour causing particle growth. Particle formation was found to occur frequently in the boreal forest area over areas covering up to hundreds of kilometers. Particle formation rates of boreal events were found to be of the order of 0.01-5 cm^-3 s^-1, while the nucleation rates of 1 nm particles can be a few orders of magnitude higher. The growth rates of over 3 nm sized particles were of the order of a few nanometers per hour. The vapor concentration needed to sustain such growth is of the order of 10^7--10^8 cm^-3, approximately one order of magnitude higher than sulphuric acid concentrations found in the atmosphere. Therefore, one has to assume that other vapours, such as organics, have a key role in growing newborn particles to sizes where they can become climatically active. Formation event occurrence shows a clear annual variation with peaks in summer and autumns. This variation is similar to the variation exhibited the obtained formation rates of particles. The growth rate, on the other hand, reaches its highest values during summer. This difference in the annual behavior, and the fact that no coupling between the growth and formation process could be identified, suggest that these processes might be different ones, and that both are needed for a particle formation burst to be observed.

Essays on the Modeling and Prediction of Volatility and Higher Moments of Stock Returns (summary section only)

One of the most fundamental and widely accepted ideas in finance is that investors are compensated through higher returns for taking on non-diversifiable risk. Hence the quantification, modeling and prediction of risk have been, and still are one of the most prolific research areas in financial economics. It was recognized early on that there are predictable patterns in the variance of speculative prices. Later research has shown that there may also be systematic variation in the skewness and kurtosis of financial returns. Lacking in the literature so far, is an out-of-sample forecast evaluation of the potential benefits of these new more complicated models with time-varying higher moments. Such an evaluation is the topic of this dissertation. Essay 1 investigates the forecast performance of the GARCH (1,1) model when estimated with 9 different error distributions on Standard and Poor’s 500 Index Future returns. By utilizing the theory of realized variance to construct an appropriate ex post measure of variance from intra-day data it is shown that allowing for a leptokurtic error distribution leads to significant improvements in variance forecasts compared to using the normal distribution. This result holds for daily, weekly as well as monthly forecast horizons. It is also found that allowing for skewness and time variation in the higher moments of the distribution does not further improve forecasts. In Essay 2, by using 20 years of daily Standard and Poor 500 index returns, it is found that density forecasts are much improved by allowing for constant excess kurtosis but not improved by allowing for skewness. By allowing the kurtosis and skewness to be time varying the density forecasts are not further improved but on the contrary made slightly worse. In Essay 3 a new model incorporating conditional variance, skewness and kurtosis based on the Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution is proposed. The new model and two previously used NIG models are evaluated by their Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts on a long series of daily Standard and Poor’s 500 returns. The results show that only the new model produces satisfactory VaR forecasts for both 1% and 5% VaR Taken together the results of the thesis show that kurtosis appears not to exhibit predictable time variation, whereas there is found some predictability in the skewness. However, the dynamic properties of the skewness are not completely captured by any of the models.

Evaluating the Predictability of the Volatility Smile Using Return Distributions

In this paper, we examine the predictability of observed volatility smiles in three major European index options markets, utilising the historical return distributions of the respective underlying assets. The analysis involves an application of the Black (1976) pricing model adjusted in accordance with the Jarrow-Rudd methodology as proposed in 1982. Thereby we adjust the expected future returns for the third and fourth central moments as these represent deviations from normality in the distributions of observed returns. Thus, they are considered one possible explanation to the existence of the smile. The obtained results indicate that the inclusion of the higher moments in the pricing model to some extent reduces the volatility smile, compared with the unadjusted Black-76 model. However, as the smile is partly a function of supply, demand, and liquidity, and as such intricate to model, this modification does not appear sufficient to fully capture the characteristics of the smile.

Theorizing the Nature of Reflection

For the past decades reflection has been the buzzword of adult and higher education. Reflection is facilitated in many practices and there is abundant research on the issue. Despite the popularity of the concept, the reasons why bringing about reflection in educational practices is difficult remain unclear. The prevailing theories inform of the process in its ideal form. However, to a great extent, they fail to offer conceptual tools for understanding and working with the actualities of reflection. The aim of the doctoral thesis was to explore the challenges and prerequisites of reflection in order to theorize the nature of reflection. By the term reflection it is here referred to becoming aware of and questioning the assumptions that orient our thinking, feelings and actions. The doctoral thesis consists of five studies that approach these questions from different viewpoints and within different contexts. The methods involve both a philosophical and an empirical approach. This multifaceted approach embodies the aim of both gaining a more thorough grasp of the phenomenon and to develop the methodology of researching reflection. The theory building is based on conceptual analysis and rational reconstruction (see Davia 1998; Habermas 1979; Rorty1984) of Mezirow s (1981; 1991; 2000; 2009) theory of transformative learning. In order to explore the aspects which, based on the analysis, appeared insufficiently considered within Mezirow s theory, Damasio s (1994; 1999; 2003; 2010) theory on emotions and consciousness as well as Clausewitz s (1985) view on friction are used as complementary theories. Empirical analyses are used in dialogue with the theoretical, in order to challenge and refine the emerging theorization. Reflection is examined in three different contexts; regarding university teachers pedagogical growth, involuntarily childless women recovering from a life-event crisis, and soldiers preparing to act in chaotic situations of the battlefield as well as recovering from it. The choice of these contexts is based on Mezirow s notion of disorienting dilemma as a trigger for reflection. This notion indicates that reflection may more naturally emerge in association to life-event crises or other cumulative sets of instances, which bring our worldview and beliefs under question. Nevertheless, reflection is often being promoted in educational contexts in which the trigger conditions may not readily prevail. These contextual issues as well as the differences between the facilitated and non-facilitated contexts have not, however, been considered in detail within the research on reflection (or transformative learning). The doctoral thesis offers a new perspective into reflection which, as a further development on Mezirow s transformative learning theory, theorizes the nature of reflection. The developed theory explicates the prerequisites and challenges to reflection. The theory suggests that the challenges of reflection are fundamentally connected to the way the biological life-support system affects our thinking through emotions. While depicting the mechanisms that function as a counterforce to reflection, the developed theory also opens a perspective for considering possibilities for carrying out reflection, and suggests ways to locate and deal with the assumptions to be reflected on. The basic dynamic of the challenges to reflection was explicated by conceptually bridging the gap between Mezirow s and Damasio s theories, through exploring the connections between the meaning perspective and the biological functions of emotions. The concepts of comfort zone and edge-emotions were formed so as to depict the emotional orientation of our thinking, as part of the explanation of the nature of reflection.

Anger is associated with subclinical atherosclerosis in low SES but not in higher SES men and women

We investigated the associations of anger and cynicism with carotid artery intima-media thickness (IMT) and whether these associations were moderated by childhood or adulthood socioeconomic status (SES). The participants were 647 men and 893 women derived from the population-based Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study. Childhood SES was measured in 1980 when the participants were aged 3-18. In 2001, adulthood SES, anger, cynicism, and IMT were measured. There were no associations between anger or cynicism and IMT in the entire population, but anger was associated with thicker IMT in participants who had experienced low SES in childhood. This association persisted after adjustment for a host of cardiovascular risk factors. It is concluded that the ill health-effects of psychological factors such as anger may be more pronounced in individuals who have been exposed to adverse socioeconomic circumstances early in life.

A modell of socially optimal hydro reservoir usage - yelding socially optimal outcomes in nordic electricity markets

An extensive electricity transmission network facilitates electricity trading between Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark. Currently most of the area's power generation is traded at NordPool, where the trading volumes have steadily increased since the early 1990's, when the exchange was founded. The Nordic electricity is expected to follow the current trend and further integrate with the other European electricity markets. Hydro power is the source for roughly a half of the supply in the Nordic electricity market and most of the hydro is generated in Norway. The dominating role of hydro power distinguishes the Nordic electricity market from most of the other market places. Production of hydro power varies mainly due to hydro reservoirs and demand for electricity. Hydro reservoirs are affected by water inflows that differ each year. The hydro reservoirs explain remarkably the behaviour of the Nordic electricity markets. Therefore among others, Kauppi and Liski (2008) have developed a model that analyzes the behaviour of the markets using hydro reservoirs as explanatory factors. Their model includes, for example, welfare loss due to socially suboptimal hydro reservoir usage, socially optimal electricity price, hydro reservoir storage and thermal reservoir storage; that are referred as outcomes. However, the model does not explain the real market condition but rather an ideal situation. In the model the market is controlled by one agent, i.e. one agent controls all the power generation reserves; it is referred to as a socially optimal strategy. Article by Kauppi and Liski (2008) includes an assumption where an individual agent has a certain fraction of market power, e.g. 20 % or 30 %. In order to maintain the focus of this thesis, this part of their paper is omitted. The goal of this thesis is two-fold. Firstly we expand the results from the socially optimal strategy for years 2006-08, as the earlier study finishes in 2005. The second objective is to improve on the methods from the previous study. This thesis results several outcomes (SPOT-price and welfare loss, etc.) due to socially optimal actions. Welfare loss is interesting as it describes the inefficiency of the market. SPOT-price is an important output for the market participants as it often has an effect on end users' electricity bills. Another function is to modify and try to improve the model by means of using more accurate input data, e.g. by considering pollution trade rights effect on input data. After modifications to the model, new welfare losses are calculated and compared with the same results before the modifications. The hydro reservoir has the higher explanatory significance in the model followed by thermal power. In Nordic markets, thermal power reserves are mostly nuclear power and other thermal sources (coal, natural gas, oil, peat). It can be argued that hydro and thermal reservoirs determine electricity supply. Roughly speaking, the model takes into account electricity demand and supply, and several parameters related to them (water inflow, oil price, etc.), yielding finally the socially optimal outcomes. The author of this thesis is not aware of any similar model being tested before. There have been some other studies that are close to the Kauppi and Liski (2008) model, but those have a somewhat different focus. For example, a specific feature in the model is the focus on long-run capacity usage that differs from the previous studies on short-run market power. The closest study to the model is from California's wholesale electricity markets that, however, uses different methodology. Work is constructed as follows.

Helsingin Östersundomin pienvesien kartoitus

The area of Östersundom (29,1 square kilometers) was attached to Helsinki in the beginning of the year 2009. Östersundom is formed mostly from the municipality of Sipoo, and partly from the city of Vantaa. Nowadays Östersundom is still quite rural, but city planning has already started, and there are plans to develop Östersundom into a district with 45 000 inhabitants. In this study, the headwaters, streams and small lakes of Östersundom were studied to produce information as a basis for city planning. There are six main streams and five small lakes in Östersundom. The main methodology used in this study was the examination of the physical and the chemical quality of the water. The hygienic quality of the water was also studied. It was also examined whether the waters are in their natural state, or have they been treated and transformed by man. In addition, other factors affecting the waters were examined. Geographical information data was produced as a result of this work. Östersundom is the main area looked at in this study, some factors are examined in the scope of the catchment areas. Water samples were collected in three sampling periods: 31.8 4.9.2009, 3. 4.2.2010, and 10. 14.4.2010. There were 20 sampling points in Östersundom (5 in small lakes, 15 in streams). In the winter sampling period, only six samples were collected, from which one was taken from a small lake. Field measurements associated with water sampling included water temperature, oxygen concentration, pH and electoral conductivity. Water samples were analyzed in the Laboratories of Physical Geography in the University of Helsinki for the following properties: total suspended solids (TSS), total dissolved substances (TDS), organic matter, alkalinity, colour, principal anions and cations and trace elements. Metropolilab analyzed the amount of faecal coliform bacteria in the samples. The waters in Östersundom can be divided to three classes according to water quality and other characteristics: the upper course of the streams, the lower course of the streams and the small lakes. The streams in their upper course are in general acidic, and their acid neutralization capacity is low. The proportion of the organic matter is high. Also the concentrations of aluminium and iron tend to be high. The streams in the lower course have acidity closer to neutral, and the buffering capacity is good. The amounts of TSS and TDS are high, and as a result, the concentrations of many ions and trace elements are high as well. Bacteria were detected at times in the streams of the lower course. Four of the five small lakes in Östersundom are humic and acidic. TSS and TDS concentrations tend to be low, but the proportion of organic matter is often high. There were no bacteria in the small lakes. The fifth small lake (Landbonlampi) differs from the others by its water colour, which is very clear. This lake is very acidic, and its buffering capacity is extremely low. Compared to the headwaters in Finland in general, the concentrations of many ions and trace elements are higher in Östersundom. On the other hand, the characteristics of water were different according to the classification upper course streams, lower course streams, and small lakes. Generally, the best water quality was observed in the stream of Gumbölenpuro and in the lakes Storträsk, Genaträsk, Hältingträsk and Landbonlampi. Several valuable waters in their natural state were discovered from the area. The most representative example is the stream of Östersundominpuro in its lower course, where the stream flows through a broad-leaf forest area. The small lakes of Östersundom, and the biggest stream Krapuoja, with its meandering channel, are also valuable in their natural state.

Designing a Dependency Representation and Grammar Definition Corpus for Finnish

We outline the design and creation of a syntactically and morphologically annotated corpora of Finnish for use by the research community. We motivate a definitional, systematic “grammar definition corpus” as a first step in an three-year annotation effort to help create higher-quality, better-documented extensive parsebanks at a later stage. The syntactic representation, consisting of a dependency structure and a basic set of dependency functions, is outlined with examples. Reference is made to double-blind annotation experiments to measure the applicability of the newgrammar definition corpus methodology.