Conceptual and statistical modelling of environmental effects in population dynamics

Population dynamics are generally viewed as the result of intrinsic (purely density dependent) and extrinsic (environmental) processes. Both components, and potential interactions between those two, have to be modelled in order to understand and predict dynamics of natural populations; a topic that is of great importance in population management and conservation. This thesis focuses on modelling environmental effects in population dynamics and how effects of potentially relevant environmental variables can be statistically identified and quantified from time series data. Chapter I presents some useful models of multiplicative environmental effects for unstructured density dependent populations. The presented models can be written as standard multiple regression models that are easy to fit to data. Chapters II IV constitute empirical studies that statistically model environmental effects on population dynamics of several migratory bird species with different life history characteristics and migration strategies. In Chapter II, spruce cone crops are found to have a strong positive effect on the population growth of the great spotted woodpecker (Dendrocopos major), while cone crops of pine another important food resource for the species do not effectively explain population growth. The study compares rate- and ratio-dependent effects of cone availability, using state-space models that distinguish between process and observation error in the time series data. Chapter III shows how drought, in combination with settling behaviour during migration, produces asymmetric spatially synchronous patterns of population dynamics in North American ducks (genus Anas). Chapter IV investigates the dynamics of a Finnish population of skylark (Alauda arvensis), and point out effects of rainfall and habitat quality on population growth. Because the skylark time series and some of the environmental variables included show strong positive autocorrelation, the statistical significances are calculated using a Monte Carlo method, where random autocorrelated time series are generated. Chapter V is a simulation-based study, showing that ignoring observation error in analyses of population time series data can bias the estimated effects and measures of uncertainty, if the environmental variables are autocorrelated. It is concluded that the use of state-space models is an effective way to reach more accurate results. In summary, there are several biological assumptions and methodological issues that can affect the inferential outcome when estimating environmental effects from time series data, and that therefore need special attention. The functional form of the environmental effects and potential interactions between environment and population density are important to deal with. Other issues that should be considered are assumptions about density dependent regulation, modelling potential observation error, and when needed, accounting for spatial and/or temporal autocorrelation.

Dynamics of Finnish starlings in 1951-2005 : from monitoring to population modelling

Farmland bird species have been declining in Europe. Many declines have coincided with general intensification of farming practices. In Finland, replacement of mixed farming, including rotational pastures, with specialized cultivation has been one of the most drastic changes from the 1960s to the 1990s. This kind of habitat deterioration limits the persistence of populations, as has been previously indicated from local populations. Integrated population monitoring, which gathers species-specific information of population size and demography, can be used to assess the response of a population to environment changes also at a large spatial scale. I targeted my analysis at the Finnish starling (Sturnus vulgaris). Starlings are common breeders in farmland habitats, but severe declines of local populations have been reported from Finland in the 1970s and 1980s and later from other parts of Europe. Habitat deterioration (replacement of pasture and grassland habitats with specialized cultivation areas) limits reproductive success of the species. I analysed regional population data in order to exemplify the importance of agricultural change to bird population dynamics. I used nestling ringing and nest-card data from 1951 to 2005 in order to quantify population trends and per capita reproductive success within several geographical regions (south/north and west/east aspects). I used matrix modelling, acknowledging age-specific survival and fecundity parameters and density-dependence, to model population dynamics. Finnish starlings declined by 80% from the end of the 1960s up to the end of the 1980s. The observed patterns and the model indicated that the population decline was due to the decline of the carrying capacity of farmland habitats. The decline was most severe in north Finland where populations largely become extinct. However, habitat deterioration was most severe in the southern breeding areas. The deteriorations in habitat quality decreased reproduction, which finally caused the decline. I suggest that poorly-productive northern populations have been partly maintained by immigration from the highly-productive southern populations. As the southern populations declined, ceasing emigration caused the population extinction in north. This phenomenon was explained with source sink population dynamics, which I structured and verified on the basis of a spatially explicit simulation model. I found that southern Finnish starling population exhibits ten-year cyclic regularity, a phenomenon that can be explained with delayed density-dependence in reproduction.

Positional cloning and pathway analysis of the asthma susceptibility gene, NPSR1

In the present study, we identified a novel asthma susceptibility gene, NPSR1 (neuropeptide S receptor 1) on chromosome 7p14.3 by the positional cloning strategy. An earlier significant linkage mapping result among Finnish Kainuu asthma families was confirmed in two independent cohorts: in asthma families from Quebec, Canada and in allergy families from North Karelia, Finland. The linkage region was narrowed down to a 133-kb segment by a hierarchial genotyping method. The observed 77-kb haplotype block showed 7 haplotypes and a similar risk and nonrisk pattern in all three populations studied. All seven haplotypes occur in all three populations at frequences > 2%. Significant elevated relative risks were detected for elevated total IgE (immunoglobulin E) or asthma. Risk effects of the gene variants varied from 1.4 to 2.5. NPSR1 belongs to the G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) family with a topology of seven transmembrane domains. NPSR1 has 9 exons, with the two main transcripts, A and B, encoding proteins of 371 and 377 amino acids, respectively. We detected a low but ubiquitous expression level of NPSR1-B in various tissues and endogenous cell lines while NPSR1-A has a more restricted expression pattern. Both isoforms were expressed in the lung epithelium. We observed aberrant expression levels of NPSR1-B in smooth muscle in asthmatic bronchi as compared to healthy. In an experimental mouse model, the induced lung inflammation resulted in elevated Npsr1 levels. Furthermore, we demonstrated that the activation of NPSR1 with its endogenous agonist, neuropeptide S (NPS), resulted in a significant inhibition of the growth of NPSR1-A overexpressing stable cell lines (NPSR1-A cells). To determine which target genes were regulated by the NPS-NPSR1 pathway, NPSR1-A cells were stimulated with NPS, and differentially expressed genes were identified using the Affymetrix HGU133Plus2 GeneChip. A total of 104 genes were found significantly up-regulated and 42 down-regulated 6 h after NPS administration. The up-regulated genes included many neuronal genes and some putative susceptibility genes for respiratory disorders. By Gene Ontology enrichment analysis, the biological process terms, cell proliferation, morphogenesis and immune response were among the most altered. The expression of four up-regulated genes, matrix metallopeptidase 10 (MMP10), INHBA (activin A), interleukin 8 (IL8) and EPH receptor A2 (EPHA2), were verified and confirmed by quantitative reverse-transcriptase-PCR. In conclusion, we identified a novel asthma susceptibility gene, NPSR1, on chromosome 7p14.3. NPS-NPSR1 represents a novel pathway that regulates cell proliferation and immune responses, and thus may have functional relevance in the pathogenesis of asthma.

Genetic analysis of chromosomal regions 2q33, 7q32 and 19q13 in multiple sclerosis susceptibility

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an immune-mediated demyelinating disorder of the central nervous system (CNS) affecting 0.1-0.2% of Northern European descent population. MS is considered to be a multifactorial disease, both environment and genetics play a role in its pathogenesis. Despite several decades of intense research, the etiological and pathogenic mechanisms underlying MS remain still largely unknown and no curative treatment exists. The genetic architecture underlying MS is complex with multiple genes involved. The strongest and the best characterized predisposing genetic factors for MS are located, as in other immune-mediated diseases, in the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) on chromosome 6. In humans MHC is called human leukocyte antigen (HLA). Alleles of the HLA locus have been found to associate strongly with MS and remained for many years the only consistently replicable genetic associations. However, recently other genes located outside the MHC region have been proposed as strong candidates for susceptibility to MS in several studies. In this thesis a new genetic locus located on chromosome 7q32, interferon regulatory factor 5 (IRF5), was identified in the susceptibility to MS. In particular, we found that common variation of the gene was associated with the disease in three different populations, Spanish, Swedish and Finnish. We also suggested a possible functional role for one of the risk alleles with impact on the expression of the IRF5 locus. Previous studies have pointed out a possible role played by chromosome 2q33 in the susceptibility to MS and other autoimmune disorders. The work described here also investigated the involvement of this chromosomal region in MS predisposition. After the detection of genetic association with 2q33 (article-1), we extended our analysis through fine-scale single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) mapping to define further the contribution of this genomic area to disease pathogenesis (article-4). We found a trend (p=0.04) for association to MS with an intronic SNP located in the inducible T-cell co-stimulator (ICOS) gene, an important player in the co-stimulatory pathway of the immune system. Expression analysis of ICOS revealed a novel, previously uncharacterized, alternatively spliced isoform, lacking the extracellular domain that is needed for ligand binding. The stability of the newly-identified transcript variant and its subcellular localization were analyzed. These studies indicated that the novel isoform is stable and shows different subcellular localization as compared to full-length ICOS. The novel isoform might have a regulatory function, but further studies are required to elucidate its function. Chromosome 19q13 has been previously suggested as one of the genomic areas involved in MS predisposition. In several populations, suggestive linkage signals between MS predisposition and 19q13 have been obtained. Here, we analysed the role of allelic variation in 19q13 by family based association analysis in 782 MS families collected from Finland. In this dataset, we were not able to detect any statistically significant associations, although several previously suggested markers were included to the analysis. Replication of the previous findings on the basis of linkage disequilibrium between marker allele and disease/risk allele appears notoriously difficult because of limitations such as allelic heterogeneity. Re-sequencing based approaches may be required for elucidating the role of chromosome 19q13 with MS. This thesis has resulted in the identification of a new MS susceptibility locus (IRF5) previously associated with other inflammatory or autoimmune disorders, such as SLE. IRF5 is one of the mediators of interferons biological function. In addition to providing new insight in the possible pathogenetic pathway of the disease, this finding suggests that there might be common mechanisms between different immune-mediated disorders. Furthermore the work presented here has uncovered a novel isoform of ICOS, which may play a role in regulatory mechanisms of ICOS, an important mediator of lymphocyte activation. Further work is required to uncover its functions and possible involvement of the ICOS locus in MS susceptibility.

Identification of genetic susceptibility loci for migraine

Migraine is the common cause of chronic episodic headache, affecting 12%-15% of the Caucasian population (41 million Europeans and some half a million Finns), and causes considerable loss of quality of life to its sufferers, as well as being linked to increased risk for a wide range of conditions, from depression to stroke. Migraine is the 19th most severe disease in terms of disability-adjusted life years, and 9th among women. It is characterized by attacks of headache accompanied by sensitivity to external stimuli lasting 4-72 hours, and in a third of cases by neurological aura symptoms, such as loss of vision, speech or muscle function. The underlying pathophysiology, including what triggers migraine attacks and why they occur in the first place, is largely unknown. The aim of this study was to identify genetic factors associated with the hereditary susceptibility to migraine, in order to gain a better understanding of migraine mechanisms. In this thesis, we report the results of genetic linkage and association analyses on a Finnish migraine patient collection as well as migraineurs from Australia, Denmark, Germany, Iceland and the Netherlands. Altogether we studied genetic information of nearly 7,000 migraine patients and over 50,000 population-matched controls. We also developed a new migraine analysis method called the trait component analysis, which is based on individual patient responses instead of the clinical diagnosis. Using this method, we detected a number of new genetic loci for migraine, including on chromosome 17p13 (HLOD 4.65) and 10q22-q23 (female-specific HLOD 7.68) with significant evidence of linkage, along with five other loci (2p12, 8q12, 4q28-q31, 18q12-q22, and Xp22) detected with suggestive evidence of linkage. The 10q22-q23 locus was the first genetic finding in migraine to show linkage to the same locus and markers in multiple populations, with consistent detection in six different scans. Traditionally, ion channels have been thought to play a role in migraine susceptibility, but we were able to exclude any significant role for common variants in a candidate gene study of 155 ion transport genes. This was followed up by the first genome-wide association study in migraine, conducted on 2,748 migraine patients and 10,747 matched controls followed by a replication in 3,209 patients and 40,062 controls. In this study, we found interesting results with genome-wide significance, providing targets for future genetic and functional studies. Overall, we found several promising genetic loci for migraine providing a promising base for future studies in migraine.