Empirical Analysis of Competition in Procurement Auctions

A vast amount of public services and goods are contracted through procurement auctions. Therefore it is very important to design these auctions in an optimal way. Typically, we are interested in two different objectives. The first objective is efficiency. Efficiency means that the contract is awarded to the bidder that values it the most, which in the procurement setting means the bidder that has the lowest cost of providing a service with a given quality. The second objective is to maximize public revenue. Maximizing public revenue means minimizing the costs of procurement. Both of these goals are important from the welfare point of view. In this thesis, I analyze field data from procurement auctions and show how empirical analysis can be used to help design the auctions to maximize public revenue. In particular, I concentrate on how competition, which means the number of bidders, should be taken into account in the design of auctions. In the first chapter, the main policy question is whether the auctioneer should spend resources to induce more competition. The information paradigm is essential in analyzing the effects of competition. We talk of a private values information paradigm when the bidders know their valuations exactly. In a common value information paradigm, the information about the value of the object is dispersed among the bidders. With private values more competition always increases the public revenue but with common values the effect of competition is uncertain. I study the effects of competition in the City of Helsinki bus transit market by conducting tests for common values. I also extend an existing test by allowing bidder asymmetry. The information paradigm seems to be that of common values. The bus companies that have garages close to the contracted routes are influenced more by the common value elements than those whose garages are further away. Therefore, attracting more bidders does not necessarily lower procurement costs, and thus the City should not implement costly policies to induce more competition. In the second chapter, I ask how the auctioneer can increase its revenue by changing contract characteristics like contract sizes and durations. I find that the City of Helsinki should shorten the contract duration in the bus transit auctions because that would decrease the importance of common value components and cheaply increase entry which now would have a more beneficial impact on the public revenue. Typically, cartels decrease the public revenue in a significant way. In the third chapter, I propose a new statistical method for detecting collusion and compare it with an existing test. I argue that my test is robust to unobserved heterogeneity unlike the existing test. I apply both methods to procurement auctions that contract snow removal in schools of Helsinki. According to these tests, the bidding behavior of two of the bidders seems consistent with a contract allocation scheme.

Conceptual and statistical modelling of environmental effects in population dynamics

Population dynamics are generally viewed as the result of intrinsic (purely density dependent) and extrinsic (environmental) processes. Both components, and potential interactions between those two, have to be modelled in order to understand and predict dynamics of natural populations; a topic that is of great importance in population management and conservation. This thesis focuses on modelling environmental effects in population dynamics and how effects of potentially relevant environmental variables can be statistically identified and quantified from time series data. Chapter I presents some useful models of multiplicative environmental effects for unstructured density dependent populations. The presented models can be written as standard multiple regression models that are easy to fit to data. Chapters II IV constitute empirical studies that statistically model environmental effects on population dynamics of several migratory bird species with different life history characteristics and migration strategies. In Chapter II, spruce cone crops are found to have a strong positive effect on the population growth of the great spotted woodpecker (Dendrocopos major), while cone crops of pine another important food resource for the species do not effectively explain population growth. The study compares rate- and ratio-dependent effects of cone availability, using state-space models that distinguish between process and observation error in the time series data. Chapter III shows how drought, in combination with settling behaviour during migration, produces asymmetric spatially synchronous patterns of population dynamics in North American ducks (genus Anas). Chapter IV investigates the dynamics of a Finnish population of skylark (Alauda arvensis), and point out effects of rainfall and habitat quality on population growth. Because the skylark time series and some of the environmental variables included show strong positive autocorrelation, the statistical significances are calculated using a Monte Carlo method, where random autocorrelated time series are generated. Chapter V is a simulation-based study, showing that ignoring observation error in analyses of population time series data can bias the estimated effects and measures of uncertainty, if the environmental variables are autocorrelated. It is concluded that the use of state-space models is an effective way to reach more accurate results. In summary, there are several biological assumptions and methodological issues that can affect the inferential outcome when estimating environmental effects from time series data, and that therefore need special attention. The functional form of the environmental effects and potential interactions between environment and population density are important to deal with. Other issues that should be considered are assumptions about density dependent regulation, modelling potential observation error, and when needed, accounting for spatial and/or temporal autocorrelation.

Depression, Anxiety, Psychiatric Comorbidity and Dimensions of Temperament and Personality

This study is part of the Mood Disorders Project conducted by the Department of Mental Health and Alcohol Research, National Public Health Institute, and consists of a general population survey sample and a major depressive disorder (MDD) patient cohort from Vantaa Depression Study (VDS). The general population survey study was conducted in 2003 in the cities of Espoo and Vantaa. The VDS is a collaborative depression research project between the Department of Mental Health and Alcohol Research of the National Public Health Institute and the Department of Psychiatry of the Peijas Medical Care District (PMCD) beginning in 1997. It is a prospective, naturalistic cohort study of 269 secondary-level care psychiatric out- and inpatients with a new episode of Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition (DSM-IV) MDD. In the general population survey study, a total of 900 participants (300 from Espoo, 600 from Vantaa) aged 20 70 years were randomly drawn from the Population Register Centre in Finland. A self-report booklet, including the Eysenck Personality Inventory (EPI), the Temperament and Character Inventory Revised (TCI-R), the Beck Depression Inventory and the Beck Anxiety Inventory was mailed to all subjects. Altogether 441 participants responded (94 returned only the shortened version without TCI-R) and gave their informed consent. VDS involved screening all patients aged 20-60 years (n=806) in the PMCD for a possible new episode of DSM-IV MDD. 542 consenting patients were interviewed with a semi-structured interview (the WHO Schedules for Clinical Assessment in Neuropsychiatry, version 2.0). 269 patients with a current DSM-IV MDD were included in the study and further interviewed with semi-structured interviews to assess all other axis I and II psychiatric diagnoses. Exclusion criteria were DSM-IV bipolar I and II, schizoaffective disorder, schizophrenia or another psychosis, organic and substance-induced mood disorders. In the present study are included those 193 (139 females, 54 males) individuals who could be followed up at both 6 and 18 months, and their depression had remained unipolar. Personality was investigated with the EPI. Personality dimensions associated not only to the symptoms of depression, but also to the symptoms of anxiety among general population and in depressive patients, as well as to comorbid disorders in MDD patients, supporting the dimensional view of depression and anxiety. Among the general population High Harm Avoidance and low Self-Directedness associated moderately, whereas low extraversion and high neuroticism strongly with the depressive and anxiety symptoms. The personality dimensions, especially high Harm Avoidance, low Self-Directedness and high neuroticism were also somewhat predictive of self-reported use of health care services for psychiatric reasons, and lifetime mental disorder. Moreover, high Harm Avoidance associated with a family history of mental disorder. In depressive patients, neuroticism scores were found to decline markedly and extraversion scores to increase somewhat with recovery. The predictive value of the changes in symptoms of depression and anxiety in explaining follow-up neuroticism was about 1/3 of that of baseline neuroticism. In contrast to neuroticism, the scores of extraversion showed no dependence on the symptoms of anxiety, and the change in the symptoms of depression explained only 1/20 of the follow-up extraversion compared with baseline extraversion. No evidence was found of the scar effect during a one-year follow-up period. Finally, even after controlling for symptoms of both depression and anxiety, depressive patients had a somewhat higher level of neuroticism (odds ratio 1.11, p=0.001) and a slightly lower level of extraversion (odds ratio 0.92, p=0.003) than subjects in the general population. Among MDD patients, a positive dose-exposure relationship appeared to exist between neuroticism and prevalence and number of comorbid axis I and II disorders. A negative relationship existed between level of extraversion and prevalence of comorbid social phobia and cluster C personality disorders. Personality dimensions are associated with the symptoms of depression and anxiety. Futhermore these findings support the hypothesis that high neuroticism and somewhat low extraversion might be vulnerability factors for MDD, and that high neuroticism and low extraversion predispose to comorbid axis I and II disorders among patients with MDD.

Reduced visual function and its association with physical functioning in the Finnish adult population : Prevalence, causes, and need for eye care services

The purpose of this study was to estimate the prevalence and distribution of reduced visual acuity, major chronic eye diseases, and subsequent need for eye care services in the Finnish adult population comprising persons aged 30 years and older. In addition, we analyzed the effect of decreased vision on functioning and need for assistance using the World Health Organization’s (WHO) International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health (ICF) as a framework. The study was based on the Health 2000 health examination survey, a nationally representative population-based comprehensive survey of health and functional capacity carried out in 2000 to 2001 in Finland. The study sample representing the Finnish population aged 30 years and older was drawn by a two-stage stratified cluster sampling. The Health 2000 survey included a home interview and a comprehensive health examination conducted at a nearby screening center. If the invited participants did not attend, an abridged examination was conducted at home or in an institution. Based on our finding in participants, the great majority (96%) of Finnish adults had at least moderate visual acuity (VA ≥ 0.5) with current refraction correction, if any. However, in the age group 75–84 years the prevalence decreased to 81%, and after 85 years to 46%. In the population aged 30 years and older, the prevalence of habitual visual impairment (VA ≤ 0.25) was 1.6%, and 0.5% were blind (VA < 0.1). The prevalence of visual impairment increased significantly with age (p < 0.001), and after the age of 65 years the increase was sharp. Visual impairment was equally common for both sexes (OR 1.20, 95% CI 0.82 – 1.74). Based on self-reported and/or register-based data, the estimated total prevalences of cataract, glaucoma, age-related maculopathy (ARM), and diabetic retinopathy (DR) in the study population were 10%, 5%, 4%, and 1%, respectively. The prevalence of all of these chronic eye diseases increased with age (p < 0.001). Cataract and glaucoma were more common in women than in men (OR 1.55, 95% CI 1.26 – 1.91 and OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.24 – 1.98, respectively). The most prevalent eye diseases in people with visual impairment (VA ≤ 0.25) were ARM (37%), unoperated cataract (27%), glaucoma (22%), and DR (7%). One-half (58%) of visually impaired people had had a vision examination during the past five years, and 79% had received some vision rehabilitation services, mainly in the form of spectacles (70%). Only one-third (31%) had received formal low vision rehabilitation (i.e., fitting of low vision aids, receiving patient education, training for orientation and mobility, training for activities of daily living (ADL), or consultation with a social worker). People with low vision (VA 0.1 – 0.25) were less likely to have received formal low vision rehabilitation, magnifying glasses, or other low vision aids than blind people (VA < 0.1). Furthermore, low cognitive capacity and living in an institution were associated with limited use of vision rehabilitation services. Of the visually impaired living in the community, 71% reported a need for assistance and 24% had an unmet need for assistance in everyday activities. Prevalence of ADL, instrumental activities of daily living (IADL), and mobility increased with decreasing VA (p < 0.001). Visually impaired persons (VA ≤ 0.25) were four times more likely to have ADL disabilities than those with good VA (VA ≥ 0.8) after adjustment for sociodemographic and behavioral factors and chronic conditions (OR 4.36, 95% CI 2.44 – 7.78). Limitations in IADL and measured mobility were five times as likely (OR 4.82, 95% CI 2.38 – 9.76 and OR 5.37, 95% CI 2.44 – 7.78, respectively) and self-reported mobility limitations were three times as likely (OR 3.07, 95% CI 1.67 – 9.63) as in persons with good VA. The high prevalence of age-related eye diseases and subsequent visual impairment in the fastest growing segment of the population will result in a substantial increase in the demand for eye care services in the future. Many of the visually impaired, especially older persons with decreased cognitive capacity or living in an institution, have not had a recent vision examination and lack adequate low vision rehabilitation. This highlights the need for regular evaluation of visual function in the elderly and an active dissemination of information about rehabilitation services. Decreased VA is strongly associated with functional limitations, and even a slight decrease in VA was found to be associated with limited functioning. Thus, continuous efforts are needed to identify and treat eye diseases to maintain patients’ quality of life and to alleviate the social and economic burden of serious eye diseases.

Asteroid identification using statistical orbital inversion methods

An efficient and statistically robust solution for the identification of asteroids among numerous sets of astrometry is presented. In particular, numerical methods have been developed for the short-term identification of asteroids at discovery, and for the long-term identification of scarcely observed asteroids over apparitions, a task which has been lacking a robust method until now. The methods are based on the solid foundation of statistical orbital inversion properly taking into account the observational uncertainties, which allows for the detection of practically all correct identifications. Through the use of dimensionality-reduction techniques and efficient data structures, the exact methods have a loglinear, that is, O(nlog(n)), computational complexity, where n is the number of included observation sets. The methods developed are thus suitable for future large-scale surveys which anticipate a substantial increase in the astrometric data rate. Due to the discontinuous nature of asteroid astrometry, separate sets of astrometry must be linked to a common asteroid from the very first discovery detections onwards. The reason for the discontinuity in the observed positions is the rotation of the observer with the Earth as well as the motion of the asteroid and the observer about the Sun. Therefore, the aim of identification is to find a set of orbital elements that reproduce the observed positions with residuals similar to the inevitable observational uncertainty. Unless the astrometric observation sets are linked, the corresponding asteroid is eventually lost as the uncertainty of the predicted positions grows too large to allow successful follow-up. Whereas the presented identification theory and the numerical comparison algorithm are generally applicable, that is, also in fields other than astronomy (e.g., in the identification of space debris), the numerical methods developed for asteroid identification can immediately be applied to all objects on heliocentric orbits with negligible effects due to non-gravitational forces in the time frame of the analysis. The methods developed have been successfully applied to various identification problems. Simulations have shown that the methods developed are able to find virtually all correct linkages despite challenges such as numerous scarce observation sets, astrometric uncertainty, numerous objects confined to a limited region on the celestial sphere, long linking intervals, and substantial parallaxes. Tens of previously unknown main-belt asteroids have been identified with the short-term method in a preliminary study to locate asteroids among numerous unidentified sets of single-night astrometry of moving objects, and scarce astrometry obtained nearly simultaneously with Earth-based and space-based telescopes has been successfully linked despite a substantial parallax. Using the long-term method, thousands of realistic 3-linkages typically spanning several apparitions have so far been found among designated observation sets each spanning less than 48 hours.

Vaikuttavuusyhteiskunta : Sosiaalisten olojen arvostelusta vaikutusten todentamiseen

Evaluation practices have pervaded the Finnish society and welfare state. At the same time the term effectiveness has become a powerful organising concept in welfare state activities. The aim of the study is to analyse how the outcome-oriented society came into being through historical processes, to answer the question of how social policy and welfare state practices were brought under the governance of the concept of effectiveness . Discussions about social imagination, Michel Foucault s conceptions of the history of the present and of governmentality, genealogy and archaeology, along with Ian Hacking s notions of dynamic nominalism and styles of reasoning, are used as the conceptual and methodological starting points for the study. In addition, Luc Boltanski s and Laurent Thévenot s ideas of orders of worth , regimes of evaluation in everyday life, are employed. Usually, evaluation is conceptualised as an autonomous epistemic culture and practice (evaluation as epistemic practice), but evaluation is here understood as knowledge-creation processes elementary to different epistemic practices (evaluation in epistemic practices). The emergence of epistemic cultures and styles of reasoning about the effectiveness or impacts of welfare state activities are analysed through Finnish social policy and social work research. The study uses case studies which represent debates and empirical research dealing with the effectiveness and quality of social services and social work. While uncertainty and doubts over the effects and consequences of welfare policies have always been present in discourses about social policy, the theme has not been acknowledged much in social policy research. To resolve these uncertainties, eight styles of reasoning about such effects have emerged over time. These are the statistical, goal-based, needs-based, experimental, interaction-based, performance measurement, auditing and evidence-based styles of reasoning. Social policy research has contributed in various ways to the creation of these epistemic practices. The transformation of the welfare state, starting at the end of 1980s, increased market-orientation and trimmed public welfare responsibilities, and led to the adoption of the New Public Management (NPM) style of leadership. Due to these developments the concept of effectiveness made a breakthrough, and new accountabilities with their knowledge tools for performance measurement and auditing and evidence-based styles of reasoning became more dominant in the ruling of the welfare state. Social sciences and evaluation have developed a heteronomous relation with each other, although there still remain divergent tendencies between them. Key words: evaluation, effectiveness, social policy, welfare state, public services, sociology of knowledge

Data fusion and matching by maximizing statistical dependencies

The core aim of machine learning is to make a computer program learn from the experience. Learning from data is usually defined as a task of learning regularities or patterns in data in order to extract useful information, or to learn the underlying concept. An important sub-field of machine learning is called multi-view learning where the task is to learn from multiple data sets or views describing the same underlying concept. A typical example of such scenario would be to study a biological concept using several biological measurements like gene expression, protein expression and metabolic profiles, or to classify web pages based on their content and the contents of their hyperlinks. In this thesis, novel problem formulations and methods for multi-view learning are presented. The contributions include a linear data fusion approach during exploratory data analysis, a new measure to evaluate different kinds of representations for textual data, and an extension of multi-view learning for novel scenarios where the correspondence of samples in the different views or data sets is not known in advance. In order to infer the one-to-one correspondence of samples between two views, a novel concept of multi-view matching is proposed. The matching algorithm is completely data-driven and is demonstrated in several applications such as matching of metabolites between humans and mice, and matching of sentences between documents in two languages.

Service firms´ action upon negative incidents in high touch services: A narrative study

The study concerns service management, and specifically the action service firms take with regard to customer dissatisfaction, customer complaints and complaining customers in high touch services. Customer dissatisfaction, customer complaints and complaining customers are called negative incidents in the study. The study fills a research gap in service management studies by investigating negative incidents as a part of an open service system. In contrast to main stream service management studies defining service quality as how the customer as a consumer defines it, in the present study, the concept of interactive service quality is adopted. The customer is considered as a co-producer of service who thus has a role to play in service quality and productivity. Additionally, the study juxtaposes the often opposed perspectives of the manager and the customer as well as the often forgotten silent voices of service employees and supervisors. The study proposes that the service firm as an entity does not act but it is the actors at the different hierarchical layers who act. Additionally, it is acknowledged in the study that the different actors at the different hierarchical layers have different knowledge of the service system and different objectives for service encounters. Therefore, they interpret the negative incidents from different perspectives and their actions upon negative incidents are subsequently guided by their interpretations. The research question is: how do service firms act upon negative incidents in high touch services? In order to answer to the research question a narrative research approach was chosen. The actors at the different hierarchical layers acted as informants of the study and provided stories about customer dissatisfaction, customer complaining and complaint handling in high touch services. Through storytelling, access to the socially constructed reality of service firms’ action was achieved. Stemming from the literature review, analysis of empirical data and my theoretical thinking, a theory about service firms’ action upon negative incidents in high touch services was developed and the research question was answered. The study contributes to service recovery and complaint management studies as well as to studies on customer orientation and its implementation in service firms. Additionally, the study has a methodological contribution to service management studies since it reflects service firms’ action with narratives from multiple perspectives. The study is positioned in the tradition of the Nordic School of Marketing Thought and presents service firms’ action upon negative incidents in high touch services as a complex human-centered phenomenon in which the actors at the different hierarchical layers have crucial roles to play. Ritva Höykinpuro is associated with CERS, the Centre for Relationship Marketing and Service Management at Hanken School of Economics.

Language Influence in Services: Perceived Importance of Native Language Use in Service Encounters

A defining characteristic of most service encounters is that they are strongly influenced by interactions in which both the consumer and the service personnel are playing integral roles. Such is the importance of this interaction that it has even been argued that for the consumer, these encounters are in fact the service. Given this, it is not surprising that interactions involving communication and customer participation in the service encounters have received considerable attention within the field of services marketing. Much of the research on interactions and communication in services, however, appear to have assumed that the consumer and the service personnel by definition are perfectly able to interact and communicate effortlessly with each other. Such communication would require a common language, and in order to be able to take this for granted the market would need to be fairly homogenous. The homogenous country, however, and with it the homogenous market, would appear to be gone. It is estimated that more than half the consumers in the world are already speaking more than one language. For a company entering a new market, language can be a major barrier that firms may underestimate, and understanding language influence across different markets is important for international companies. The service literature has taken a common language between companies and consumers for granted but this is not matched by the realities on the ground in many markets. Owing to the communicational and interaction-oriented nature of services, the lack of a common language between the consumer and the service provider is a situation that could cause problems. A gap exists in the service theory, consisting of a lack of knowledge concerning how language influences consumers in service encounters. By addressing this gap, the thesis contributes to an increased understanding of service theory and provides a better practical understanding for service companies of the importance of native language use for consumers. The thesis consists of four essays. Essay one is conceptual and addresses how sociolinguistic research can be beneficial for understanding consumer language preferences. Essay two empirically shows how the influence of language varies depending on the nature of the service, essay three shows that there is a significant difference in language preferences between female and male consumers while essay four empirically compares consumer language preferences in Canada and Finland, finding strong similarities but also indications of difference in the motives for preferring native language use. The introduction of the thesis outlines the existence of a research gap within the service literature, a gap consisting of the lack of research into how native language use may influence consumers in service encounters. In addition, it is described why this gap is of importance to services and why its importance is growing. Building on this situation, the purpose of the thesis is to establish the existence of language influence in service encounters and to extend the knowledge of how language influences consumers on multilingual markets.

What is A Virtual Service?- Broadening the Perspective on Technology-Based Services

This article expands the discussion of the impact of technology on services and contributes to a broader comprehension of the nature of virtual services. This is done by discovering dimensions that distinguish physical services from virtual services, i.e. services that are distributed by electronic means and where the customer has no direct human interaction with the service provider. Differences in the core characteristics of services, servicescape and service delivery are discussed. Moreover, dimensions that differentiate between virtual services are analysed. A classification scheme for virtual services is proposed, including the origin of the service, the element of the service offering, the customisation process, stage of the service process performed, and the degree of mobility of the service.