Lahopuumäärän ennustaminen ja kartoitus lentokonelaserkeilauksen avulla

Lahopuun määrästä ja sijoittumisesta ollaan kiinnostuneita paitsi elinympäristöjen monimuotoisuuden, myös ilmakehän hiilen varastoinnin kannalta. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli kehittää aluepohjainen laserkeilausdataa hyödyntävä malli lahopuukohteiden paikantamiseksi ja lahopuun määrän estimoimiseksi. Samalla tutkittiin mallin selityskyvyn muuttumista mallinnettavan ruudun kokoa suurennettaessa. Tutkimusalue sijaitsi Itä-Suomessa Sonkajärvellä ja koostui pääasiassa nuorista hoidetuista talousmetsistä. Tutkimuksessa käytettiin harvapulssista laserkeilausdataa sekä kaistoittain mitattua maastodataa kuolleesta puuaineksesta. Aineisto jaettiin siten, että neljäsosa datasta oli käytössä mallinnusta varten ja loput varattiin valmiiden mallien testaamiseen. Lahopuun mallintamisessa käytettiin sekä parametrista että ei-parametrista mallinnusmenetelmää. Logistisen regression avulla erikokoisille (0,04, 0,20, 0,32, 0,52 ja 1,00 ha) ruuduille ennustettiin todennäköisyys lahopuun esiintymiselle. Muodostettujen mallien selittävät muuttujat valittiin 80 laserpiirteen ja näiden muunnoksien joukosta. Mallien selittävät muuttujat valittiin kolmessa vaiheessa. Aluksi muuttujia tarkasteltiin visuaalisesti kuvaamalla ne lahopuumäärän suhteen. Ensimmäisessä vaiheessa sopivimmiksi arvioitujen muuttujien selityskykyä testattiin mallinnuksen toisessa vaiheessa yhden muuttujan mallien avulla. Lopullisessa usean muuttujan mallissa selittävien muuttujien kriteerinä oli tilastollinen merkitsevyys 5 % riskitasolla. 0,20 hehtaarin ruutukoolle luotu malli parametrisoitiin muun kokoisille ruuduille. Logistisella regressiolla toteutetun parametrisen mallintamisen lisäksi, 0,04 ja 1,0 hehtaarin ruutukokojen aineistot luokiteltiin ei-parametrisen CART-mallinnuksen (Classification and Regression Trees) avulla. CARTmenetelmällä etsittiin aineistosta vaikeasti havaittavia epälineaarisia riippuvuuksia laserpiirteiden ja lahopuumäärän välillä. CART-luokittelu tehtiin sekä lahopuustoisuuden että lahopuutilavuuden suhteen. CART-luokituksella päästiin logistista regressiota parempiin tuloksiin ruutujen luokituksessa lahopuustoisuuden suhteen. Logistisella mallilla tehty luokitus parani ruutukoon suurentuessa 0,04 ha:sta(kappa 0,19) 0,32 ha:iin asti (kappa 0,38). 0,52 ha:n ruutukoolla luokituksen kappa-arvo kääntyi laskuun (kappa 0,32) ja laski edelleen hehtaarin ruutukokoon saakka (kappa 0,26). CART-luokitus parani ruutukoon kasvaessa. Luokitustulokset olivat logistista mallinnusta parempia sekä 0,04 ha:n (kappa 0,24) että 1,0 ha:n (kappa 0,52) ruutukoolla. CART-malleilla määritettyjen ruutukohtaisten lahopuutilavuuksien suhteellinen RMSE pieneni ruutukoon kasvaessa. 0,04 hehtaarin ruutukoolla koko aineiston lahopuumäärän suhteellinen RMSE oli 197,1 %, kun hehtaarin ruutukoolla vastaava luku oli 120,3 %. Tämän tutkimuksen tulosten perusteella voidaan todeta, että maastossa mitatun lahopuumäärän ja tutkimuksessa käytettyjen laserpiirteiden yhteys on pienellä ruutukoolla hyvin heikko, mutta vahvistuu hieman ruutukoon kasvaessa. Kun mallinnuksessa käytetty ruutukoko kasvaa, pienialaisten lahopuukeskittymien havaitseminen kuitenkin vaikeutuu. Tutkimuksessa kohteen lahopuustoisuus pystyttiin kartoittamaan kohtuullisesti suurella ruutukoolla, mutta pienialaisten kohteiden kartoittaminen ei onnistunut käytetyillä menetelmillä. Pienialaisten kohteiden paikantaminen laserkeilauksen avulla edellyttää jatkotutkimusta erityisesti tiheäpulssisen laserdatan käytöstä lahopuuinventoinneissa.

A modell of socially optimal hydro reservoir usage - yelding socially optimal outcomes in nordic electricity markets

An extensive electricity transmission network facilitates electricity trading between Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark. Currently most of the area's power generation is traded at NordPool, where the trading volumes have steadily increased since the early 1990's, when the exchange was founded. The Nordic electricity is expected to follow the current trend and further integrate with the other European electricity markets. Hydro power is the source for roughly a half of the supply in the Nordic electricity market and most of the hydro is generated in Norway. The dominating role of hydro power distinguishes the Nordic electricity market from most of the other market places. Production of hydro power varies mainly due to hydro reservoirs and demand for electricity. Hydro reservoirs are affected by water inflows that differ each year. The hydro reservoirs explain remarkably the behaviour of the Nordic electricity markets. Therefore among others, Kauppi and Liski (2008) have developed a model that analyzes the behaviour of the markets using hydro reservoirs as explanatory factors. Their model includes, for example, welfare loss due to socially suboptimal hydro reservoir usage, socially optimal electricity price, hydro reservoir storage and thermal reservoir storage; that are referred as outcomes. However, the model does not explain the real market condition but rather an ideal situation. In the model the market is controlled by one agent, i.e. one agent controls all the power generation reserves; it is referred to as a socially optimal strategy. Article by Kauppi and Liski (2008) includes an assumption where an individual agent has a certain fraction of market power, e.g. 20 % or 30 %. In order to maintain the focus of this thesis, this part of their paper is omitted. The goal of this thesis is two-fold. Firstly we expand the results from the socially optimal strategy for years 2006-08, as the earlier study finishes in 2005. The second objective is to improve on the methods from the previous study. This thesis results several outcomes (SPOT-price and welfare loss, etc.) due to socially optimal actions. Welfare loss is interesting as it describes the inefficiency of the market. SPOT-price is an important output for the market participants as it often has an effect on end users' electricity bills. Another function is to modify and try to improve the model by means of using more accurate input data, e.g. by considering pollution trade rights effect on input data. After modifications to the model, new welfare losses are calculated and compared with the same results before the modifications. The hydro reservoir has the higher explanatory significance in the model followed by thermal power. In Nordic markets, thermal power reserves are mostly nuclear power and other thermal sources (coal, natural gas, oil, peat). It can be argued that hydro and thermal reservoirs determine electricity supply. Roughly speaking, the model takes into account electricity demand and supply, and several parameters related to them (water inflow, oil price, etc.), yielding finally the socially optimal outcomes. The author of this thesis is not aware of any similar model being tested before. There have been some other studies that are close to the Kauppi and Liski (2008) model, but those have a somewhat different focus. For example, a specific feature in the model is the focus on long-run capacity usage that differs from the previous studies on short-run market power. The closest study to the model is from California's wholesale electricity markets that, however, uses different methodology. Work is constructed as follows.

Elämän ja entisyyden maisemat : Kolgujev nenetsien arjessa, muistelussa ja kerronnassa

The dissertation discusses the conceptions of place and landscape amongst Nenets living on the island of Kolguyev or being of Kolguyev descent. The conceptions are examined through the everyday life of the community, oral recollections and narration that unfold meanings related to the island. The research material has been collected in ethnographic fieldwork in 2000 2005. The duration of individual fieldworks varies from two weeks to three months and their total duration is nearly six months. The fieldwork has been conducted both on the island and in the city of Nar yan-Mar. The main methods have been participant observation and recorded and unrecorded informal interviews. In addition to the field work data, archive materials, travel accounts, and other historical texts by outsiders about Kolguyev or the Nenets living in the European side of Russia have been used as a research material. The analysis is based on the idea of the place as a meeting point of the physical features, experiences in them and collective narration about them. The concept sense of place is used to describe the interaction of these three. Lived space manifests individual s or collective sense of place. The places form different kinds of networks of meanings which are called landscapes. Hot spots are places where different meanings accumulate. Furthermore, the material is analysed using the concepts of Tale World and Story Realm by Katherine Young. The Tale World is a realm created during the Story Realm, i.e. the event of narrations. The Tale Worlds are true as such but become evaluated in the Story Realm. The Tale Worlds are seen to arise both from the physical features of a place and from oral tradition, but at the same time these worlds give meanings to the place. The Tale Worlds are one of the central ingredients for the sense of place. One of the most central hot spots in Kolguyev is the arok harbour, where most of the themes of the pre-Soviet Tale Worlds are placed: trade and interaction with the Russians, rituals of the popular religion and arrival of the first Nenets to the island. arok is also part of the landscape of the coast where the meetings of Nenets and the other(s) are generally connected. Furthermore, arok is connected to the network of amans graves but also more generally to the landscape of collective sacred and sacrificial places. Another hot spot is the population centre of Bugrino which unfolds through the evaluations of the Tale Worlds. It also is the centre of the everyday life of the community studied. The Tale Worlds of the radiant past fastens on the population centre which is described through the negative models within the genre of litany. Sacred places, that represent the possibility to meet the Otherworld or mark places were encounters with the Otherworld have taken place, generate many kinds of landscapes in the island. They fasten on the graves of the amans, sirtya tradition, and to collective sacred places with their associations. The networks are not closed systems but are given meanings and new associations continuously in narration and recollection. They form multi-level and significant landscapes which reflect the fastening of the Kolguyev Nenets in the tundra of the island. In the research material the holy places and the popular religiousness are emphasised which is one of the most significant research results. It can be seen to reflect collective resistance and the questioning of the atheistic propaganda of the Soviet years. The narration and the recollection often refer also to the discourse of the anti-religious propaganda or use its strategies. The centrality of the holy places is also based on the tenacity of the religious Tale Worlds and sense of place and to the collective significance of the religion in general.

Modelling vacuum arcs : from plasma initiation to surface interactions

A better understanding of vacuum arcs is desirable in many of today's 'big science' projects including linear colliders, fusion devices, and satellite systems. For the Compact Linear Collider (CLIC) design, radio-frequency (RF) breakdowns occurring in accelerating cavities influence efficiency optimisation and cost reduction issues. Studying vacuum arcs both theoretically as well as experimentally under well-defined and reproducible direct-current (DC) conditions is the first step towards exploring RF breakdowns. In this thesis, we have studied Cu DC vacuum arcs with a combination of experiments, a particle-in-cell (PIC) model of the arc plasma, and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of the subsequent surface damaging mechanism. We have also developed the 2D Arc-PIC code and the physics model incorporated in it, especially for the purpose of modelling the plasma initiation in vacuum arcs. Assuming the presence of a field emitter at the cathode initially, we have identified the conditions for plasma formation and have studied the transitions from field emission stage to a fully developed arc. The 'footing' of the plasma is the cathode spot that supplies the arc continuously with particles; the high-density core of the plasma is located above this cathode spot. Our results have shown that once an arc plasma is initiated, and as long as energy is available, the arc is self-maintaining due to the plasma sheath that ensures enhanced field emission and sputtering. The plasma model can already give an estimate on how the time-to-breakdown changes with the neutral evaporation rate, which is yet to be determined by atomistic simulations. Due to the non-linearity of the problem, we have also performed a code-to-code comparison. The reproducibility of plasma behaviour and time-to-breakdown with independent codes increased confidence in the results presented here. Our MD simulations identified high-flux, high-energy ion bombardment as a possible mechanism forming the early-stage surface damage in vacuum arcs. In this mechanism, sputtering occurs mostly in clusters, as a consequence of overlapping heat spikes. Different-sized experimental and simulated craters were found to be self-similar with a crater depth-to-width ratio of about 0.23 (sim) - 0.26 (exp). Experiments, which we carried out to investigate the energy dependence of DC breakdown properties, point at an intrinsic connection between DC and RF scaling laws and suggest the possibility of accumulative effects influencing the field enhancement factor.

Mapping Road Infrastructure in Developing Countries Applying Remote Sensing and GIS - The Case of the Taita Hills, Kenya

Road transport and infrastructure has a fundamental meaning for the developing world. Poor quality and inadequate coverage of roads, lack of maintenance operations and outdated road maps continue to hinder economic and social development in the developing countries. This thesis focuses on studying the present state of road infrastructure and its mapping in the Taita Hills, south-east Kenya. The study is included as a part of the TAITA-project by the Department of Geography, University of Helsinki. The road infrastructure of the study area is studied by remote sensing and GIS based methodology. As the principal dataset, true colour airborne digital camera data from 2004, was used to generate an aerial image mosaic of the study area. Auxiliary data includes SPOT satellite imagery from 2003, field spectrometry data of road surfaces and relevant literature. Road infrastructure characteristics are interpreted from three test sites using pixel-based supervised classification, object-oriented supervised classifications and visual interpretation. Road infrastructure of the test sites is interpreted visually from a SPOT image. Road centrelines are then extracted from the object-oriented classification results with an automatic vectorisation process. The road infrastructure of the entire image mosaic is mapped by applying the most appropriate assessed data and techniques. The spectral characteristics and reflectance of various road surfaces are considered with the acquired field spectra and relevant literature. The results are compared with the experimented road mapping methods. This study concludes that classification and extraction of roads remains a difficult task, and that the accuracy of the results is inadequate regardless of the high spatial resolution of the image mosaic used in this thesis. Visual interpretation, out of all the experimented methods in this thesis is the most straightforward, accurate and valid technique for road mapping. Certain road surfaces have similar spectral characteristics and reflectance values with other land cover and land use. This has a great influence for digital analysis techniques in particular. Road mapping is made even more complicated by rich vegetation and tree canopy, clouds, shadows, low contrast between roads and surroundings and the width of narrow roads in relation to the spatial resolution of the imagery used. The results of this thesis may be applied to road infrastructure mapping in developing countries on a more general context, although with certain limits. In particular, unclassified rural roads require updated road mapping schemas to intensify road transport possibilities and to assist in the development of the developing world.