Dynamics of Finnish starlings in 1951-2005 : from monitoring to population modelling

Farmland bird species have been declining in Europe. Many declines have coincided with general intensification of farming practices. In Finland, replacement of mixed farming, including rotational pastures, with specialized cultivation has been one of the most drastic changes from the 1960s to the 1990s. This kind of habitat deterioration limits the persistence of populations, as has been previously indicated from local populations. Integrated population monitoring, which gathers species-specific information of population size and demography, can be used to assess the response of a population to environment changes also at a large spatial scale. I targeted my analysis at the Finnish starling (Sturnus vulgaris). Starlings are common breeders in farmland habitats, but severe declines of local populations have been reported from Finland in the 1970s and 1980s and later from other parts of Europe. Habitat deterioration (replacement of pasture and grassland habitats with specialized cultivation areas) limits reproductive success of the species. I analysed regional population data in order to exemplify the importance of agricultural change to bird population dynamics. I used nestling ringing and nest-card data from 1951 to 2005 in order to quantify population trends and per capita reproductive success within several geographical regions (south/north and west/east aspects). I used matrix modelling, acknowledging age-specific survival and fecundity parameters and density-dependence, to model population dynamics. Finnish starlings declined by 80% from the end of the 1960s up to the end of the 1980s. The observed patterns and the model indicated that the population decline was due to the decline of the carrying capacity of farmland habitats. The decline was most severe in north Finland where populations largely become extinct. However, habitat deterioration was most severe in the southern breeding areas. The deteriorations in habitat quality decreased reproduction, which finally caused the decline. I suggest that poorly-productive northern populations have been partly maintained by immigration from the highly-productive southern populations. As the southern populations declined, ceasing emigration caused the population extinction in north. This phenomenon was explained with source sink population dynamics, which I structured and verified on the basis of a spatially explicit simulation model. I found that southern Finnish starling population exhibits ten-year cyclic regularity, a phenomenon that can be explained with delayed density-dependence in reproduction.

Opioid dependence: Brain structure and function : a magnetic resonance imaging, neuropsychological, and electromagnetic study

Background: Opiod dependence is a chronic severe brain disorder associated with enormous health and social problems. The relapse back to opioid abuse is very high especially in early abstinence, but neuropsychological and neurophysiological deficits during opioid abuse or soon after cessation of opioids are scarcely investigated. Also the structural brain changes and their correlations with the length of opioid abuse or abuse onset age are not known. In this study the cognitive functions, neural basis of cognitive dysfunction, and brain structural changes was studied in opioid-dependent patients and in age and sex matched healthy controls. Materials and methods: All subjects participating in the study, 23 opioid dependents of whom, 15 were also benzodiazepine and five cannabis co-dependent and 18 healthy age and sex matched controls went through Structured Clinical Interviews (SCID) to obtain DSM-IV axis I and II diagnosis and to exclude psychiatric illness not related to opioid dependence or personality disorders. Simultaneous magnetoencephalography (MEG) and electroencephalography (EEG) measurements were done on 21 opioid-dependent individuals on the day of hospitalization for withdrawal therapy. The neural basis of auditory processing was studied and pre-attentive attention and sensory memory were investigated. During the withdrawal 15 opioid-dependent patients participated in neuropsychological tests, measuring fluid intelligence, attention and working memory, verbal and visual memory, and executive functions. Fifteen healthy subjects served as controls for the MEG-EEG measurements and neuropsychological assessment. The brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) was obtained from 17 patients after approximately two weeks abstinence, and from 17 controls. The areas of different brain structures and the absolute and relative volumes of cerebrum, cerebral white and gray matter, and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) spaces were measured and the Sylvian fissure ratio (SFR) and bifrontal ratio were calculated. Also correlation between the cerebral measures and neuropsychological performance was done. Results: MEG-EEG measurements showed that compared to controls the opioid-dependent patients had delayed mismatch negativity (MMN) response to novel sounds in the EEG and P3am on the contralateral hemisphere to the stimulated ear in MEG. The equivalent current dipole (ECD) of N1m response was stronger in patients with benzodiazepine co-dependence than those without benzodiazepine co-dependence or controls. In early abstinence the opioid dependents performed poorer than the controls in tests measuring attention and working memory, executive function and fluid intelligence. Test results of the Culture Fair Intelligence Test (CFIT), testing fluid intelligence, and Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test (PASAT), measuring attention and working memory correlated positively with the days of abstinence. MRI measurements showed that the relative volume of CSF was significantly larger in opioid dependents, which could also be seen in visual analysis. Also Sylvian fissures, expressed by SFR were wider in patients, which correlated negatively with the age of opioid abuse onset. In controls the relative gray matter volume had a positive correlation with composite cognitive performance, but this correlation was not found in opioid dependents in early abstinence. Conclusions: Opioid dependents had wide Sylvian fissures and CSF spaces indicating frontotemporal atrophy. Dilatation of Sylvian fissures correlated with the abuse onset age. During early withdrawal cognitive performance of opioid dependents was impaired. While intoxicated the pre-attentive attention to novel stimulus was delayed and benzodiazepine co-dependence impaired sound detection. All these changes point to disturbances on frontotemporal areas.

Cardiac function before and after treatment for various types of loading conditions and in myocardial restriction : A prospective study on pediatric patients with two- and three-dimensional echocardiography and measurement of serum natriuretic peptides

Background: The incidence of all forms of congenital heart defects is 0.75%. For patients with congenital heart defects, life-expectancy has improved with new treatment modalities. Structural heart defects may require surgical or catheter treatment which may be corrective or palliative. Even those with corrective therapy need regular follow-up due to residual lesions, late sequelae, and possible complications after interventions. Aims: The aim of this thesis was to evaluate cardiac function before and after treatment for volume overload of the right ventricle (RV) caused by atrial septal defect (ASD), volume overload of the left ventricle (LV) caused by patent ductus arteriosus (PDA), and pressure overload of the LV caused by coarctation of the aorta (CoA), and to evaluate cardiac function in patients with Mulibrey nanism. Methods: In Study I, of the 24 children with ASD, 7 underwent surgical correction and 17 percutaneous occlusion of ASD. Study II had 33 patients with PDA undergoing percutaneous occlusion. In Study III, 28 patients with CoA underwent either surgical correction or percutaneous balloon dilatation of CoA. Study IV comprised 26 children with Mulibrey nanism. A total of 76 healthy voluntary children were examined as a control group. In each study, controls were matched to patients. All patients and controls underwent clinical cardiovascular examinations, two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) echocardiographic examinations, and blood sampling for measurement of natriuretic peptides prior to the intervention and twice or three times thereafter. Control children were examined once by 2D and 3D echocardiography. M-mode echocardiography was performed from the parasternal long axis view directed by 2D echocardiography. The left atrium-to-aorta (LA/Ao) ratio was calculated as an index of LA size. The end-diastolic and end-systolic dimensions of LV as well as the end-diastolic thicknesses of the interventricular septum and LV posterior wall were measured. LV volumes, and the fractional shortening (FS) and ejection fraction (EF) as indices of contractility were then calculated, and the z scores of LV dimensions determined. Diastolic function of LV was estimated from the mitral inflow signal obtained by Doppler echocardiography. In three-dimensional echocardiography, time-volume curves were used to determine end-diastolic and end-systolic volumes, stroke volume, and EF. Diastolic and systolic function of LV was estimated from the calculated first derivatives of these curves. Results: (I): In all children with ASD, during the one-year follow-up, the z score of the RV end-diastolic diameter decreased and that of LV increased. However, dilatation of RV did not resolve entirely during the follow-up in either treatment group. In addition, the size of LV increased more slowly in the surgical subgroup but reached control levels in both groups. Concentrations of natriuretic peptides in patients treated percutaneously increased during the first month after ASD closure and normalized thereafter, but in patients treated surgically, they remained higher than in controls. (II): In the PDA group, at baseline, the end-diastolic diameter of LV measured over 2SD in 5 of 33 patients. The median N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (proBNP) concentration before closure measured 72 ng/l in the control group and 141 ng/l in the PDA group (P = 0.001) and 6 months after closure measured 78.5 ng/l (P = NS). Patients differed from control subjects in indices of LV diastolic and systolic function at baseline, but by the end of follow-up, all these differences had disappeared. Even in the subgroup of patients with normal-sized LV at baseline, the LV end-diastolic volume decreased significantly during follow-up. (III): Before repair, the size and wall thickness of LV were higher in patients with CoA than in controls. Systolic blood pressure measured a median 123 mm Hg in patients before repair (P < 0.001) and 103 mm Hg one year thereafter, and 101 mm Hg in controls. The diameter of the coarctation segment measured a median 3.0 mm at baseline, and 7.9 at the 12-month (P = 0.006) follow-up. Thicknesses of the interventricular septum and posterior wall of the LV decreased after repair but increased to the initial level one year thereafter. The velocity time integrals of mitral inflow increased, but no changes were evident in LV dimensions or contractility. During follow-up, serum levels of natriuretic peptides decreased correlating with diastolic and systolic indices of LV function in 2D and 3D echocardiography. (IV): In 2D echocardiography, the interventricular septum and LV posterior wall were thicker, and velocity time integrals of mitral inflow shorter in patients with Mulibrey nanism than in controls. In 3D echocardiography, LV end-diastolic volume measured a median 51.9 (range 33.3 to 73.4) ml/m² in patients and 59.7 (range 37.6 to 87.6) ml/m² in controls (P = 0.040), and serum levels of ANPN and proBNP a median 0.54 (range 0.04 to 4.7) nmol/l and 289 (range 18 to 9170) ng/l, in patients and 0.28 (range 0.09 to 0.72) nmol/l (P < 0.001) and 54 (range 26 to 139) ng/l (P < 0.001) in controls. They correlated with several indices of diastolic LV function. Conclusions (I): During the one-year follow-up after the ASD closure, RV size decreased but did not normalize in all patients. The size of the LV normalized after ASD closure but the increase in LV size was slower in patients treated surgically than in those treated with the percutaneous technique. Serum levels of ANPN and proBNP were elevated prior to ASD closure but decreased thereafter to control levels in patients treated with the percutaneous technique but not in those treated surgically. (II): Changes in LV volume and function caused by PDA disappeared by 6 months after percutaneous closure. Even the children with normal-sized LV benefited from the procedure. (III): After repair of CoA, the RV size and the velocity time integrals of mitral inflow increased, and serum levels of natriuretic peptides decreased. Patients need close follow-up, despite cessation of LV pressure overload, since LV hypertrophy persisted even in normotensive patients with normal growth of the coarctation segment. (IV): In children with Mulibrey nanism, the LV wall was hypertrophied, with myocardial restriction and impairment of LV function. Significant correlations appeared between indices of LV function, size of the left atrium, and levels of natriuretic peptides, indicating that measurement of serum levels of natriuretic peptides can be used in the clinical follow-up of this patient group despite its dependence on loading conditions.

Aerosol size distribution and its connection to cloud droplet number concentration

In order to predict the current state and future development of Earth s climate, detailed information on atmospheric aerosols and aerosol-cloud-interactions is required. Furthermore, these interactions need to be expressed in such a way that they can be represented in large-scale climate models. The largest uncertainties in the estimate of radiative forcing on the present day climate are related to the direct and indirect effects of aerosol. In this work aerosol properties were studied at Pallas and Utö in Finland, and at Mount Waliguan in Western China. Approximately two years of data from each site were analyzed. In addition to this, data from two intensive measurement campaigns at Pallas were used. The measurements at Mount Waliguan were the first long term aerosol particle number concentration and size distribution measurements conducted in this region. They revealed that the number concentration of aerosol particles at Mount Waliguan were much higher than those measured at similar altitudes in other parts of the world. The particles were concentrated in the Aitken size range indicating that they were produced within a couple of days prior to reaching the site, rather than being transported over thousands of kilometers. Aerosol partitioning between cloud droplets and cloud interstitial particles was studied at Pallas during the two measurement campaigns, First Pallas Cloud Experiment (First PaCE) and Second Pallas Cloud Experiment (Second PaCE). The method of using two differential mobility particle sizers (DMPS) to calculate the number concentration of activated particles was found to agree well with direct measurements of cloud droplet. Several parameters important in cloud droplet activation were found to depend strongly on the air mass history. The effects of these parameters partially cancelled out each other. Aerosol number-to-volume concentration ratio was studied at all three sites using data sets with long time-series. The ratio was found to vary more than in earlier studies, but less than either aerosol particle number concentration or volume concentration alone. Both air mass dependency and seasonal pattern were found at Pallas and Utö, but only seasonal pattern at Mount Waliguan. The number-to-volume concentration ratio was found to follow the seasonal temperature pattern well at all three sites. A new parameterization for partitioning between cloud droplets and cloud interstitial particles was developed. The parameterization uses aerosol particle number-to-volume concentration ratio and aerosol particle volume concentration as the only information on the aerosol number and size distribution. The new parameterization is computationally more efficient than the more detailed parameterizations currently in use, but the accuracy of the new parameterization was slightly lower. The new parameterization was also compared to directly observed cloud droplet number concentration data, and a good agreement was found.

Numerical approaches to new particle formation and growth in the atmosphere

Aerosols impact the planet and our daily lives through various effects, perhaps most notably those related to their climatic and health-related consequences. While there are several primary particle sources, secondary new particle formation from precursor vapors is also known to be a frequent, global phenomenon. Nevertheless, the formation mechanism of new particles, as well as the vapors participating in the process, remain a mystery. This thesis consists of studies on new particle formation specifically from the point of view of numerical modeling. A dependence of formation rate of 3 nm particles on the sulphuric acid concentration to the power of 1-2 has been observed. This suggests nucleation mechanism to be of first or second order with respect to the sulphuric acid concentration, in other words the mechanisms based on activation or kinetic collision of clusters. However, model studies have had difficulties in replicating the small exponents observed in nature. The work done in this thesis indicates that the exponents may be lowered by the participation of a co-condensing (and potentially nucleating) low-volatility organic vapor, or by increasing the assumed size of the critical clusters. On the other hand, the presented new and more accurate method for determining the exponent indicates high diurnal variability. Additionally, these studies included several semi-empirical nucleation rate parameterizations as well as a detailed investigation of the analysis used to determine the apparent particle formation rate. Due to their high proportion of the earth's surface area, oceans could potentially prove to be climatically significant sources of secondary particles. In the lack of marine observation data, new particle formation events in a coastal region were parameterized and studied. Since the formation mechanism is believed to be similar, the new parameterization was applied in a marine scenario. The work showed that marine CCN production is feasible in the presence of additional vapors contributing to particle growth. Finally, a new method to estimate concentrations of condensing organics was developed. The algorithm utilizes a Markov chain Monte Carlo method to determine the required combination of vapor concentrations by comparing a measured particle size distribution with one from an aerosol dynamics process model. The evaluation indicated excellent agreement against model data, and initial results with field data appear sound as well.

Effective models of two-flavor QCD: finite $\mu$ and $m_q$-dependence

We study effective models of chiral fields and Polyakov loop expected to describe the dynamics responsible for the phase structure of two-flavor QCD at finite temperature and density. We consider chiral sector described either using linear sigma model or Nambu-Jona-Lasinio model and study the phase diagram and determine the location of the critical point as a function of the explicit chiral symmetry breaking (i.e. the bare quark mass $m_q$). We also discuss the possible emergence of the quarkyonic phase in this model.

With Good Reputation Size Does not Matter: Issue Frequency and the Determinants of Debt Maturity

This paper examines empirically the effect firm reputation has on the determinants of debt maturity. Utilising data from European primary bond market between 1999 and 2005, I find that the maturity choice of issuers with a higher reputation is less sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, market credit risk-premiums, prevailing firm credit quality and size of the debt issue. The annualised coupon payments are shown to be a significant factor in determining the debt maturity and reveal a monotonously increasing relationship between credit quality and debt maturity once controlled for. Finally, I show that issuers lacking a credit rating have an implied credit quality positioned between investment-grade and speculative-grade debt.

Overconfidence and investor size

Recent research documents that institutional or large investors act as antagonists to other investors by showing opposite behavior following disclosure of new information. Using an extremely comprehensive official transactions data set from Finland, we set out to explore the interrelation between investor size and behavior. More specifically, we test whether investor size is positively (negatively) correlated with investor reaction following positive (negative) news. We document robust evidence of that investor size affects investor behavior under new information, as larger investors on average react more positively (negatively) to good (bad) news than smaller investors. In the light of this study it seems increasingly feasible that several recent findings of heterogeneous investor behavior are functions of differences in overconfidence.