Human genetic variation in the Baltic Sea region: Features of population history and natural selection

In this thesis, the genetic variation of human populations from the Baltic Sea region was studied in order to elucidate population history as well as evolutionary adaptation in this region. The study provided novel understanding of how the complex population level processes of migration, genetic drift, and natural selection have shaped genetic variation in North European populations. Results from genome-wide, mitochondrial DNA and Y-chromosomal analyses suggested that the genetic background of the populations of the Baltic Sea region lies predominantly in Continental Europe, which is consistent with earlier studies and archaeological evidence. The late settlement of Fennoscandia after the Ice Age and the subsequent small population size have led to pronounced genetic drift, especially in Finland and Karelia but also in Sweden, evident especially in genome-wide and Y-chromosomal analyses. Consequently, these populations show striking genetic differentiation, as opposed to much more homogeneous pattern of variation in Central European populations. Additionally, the eastern side of the Baltic Sea was observed to have experienced eastern influence in the genome-wide data as well as in mitochondrial DNA and Y-chromosomal variation – consistent with linguistic connections. However, Slavic influence in the Baltic Sea populations appears minor on genetic level. While the genetic diversity of the Finnish population overall was low, genome-wide and Y-chromosomal results showed pronounced regional differences. The genetic distance between Western and Eastern Finland was larger than for many geographically distant population pairs, and provinces also showed genetic differences. This is probably mainly due to the late settlement of Eastern Finland and local isolation, although differences in ancestral migration waves may contribute to this, too. In contrast, mitochondrial DNA and Y-chromosomal analyses of the contemporary Swedish population revealed a much less pronounced population structure and a fusion of the traces of ancient admixture, genetic drift, and recent immigration. Genome-wide datasets also provide a resource for studying the adaptive evolution of human populations. This study revealed tens of loci with strong signs of recent positive selection in Northern Europe. These results provide interesting targets for future research on evolutionary adaptation, and may be important for understanding the background of disease-causing variants in human populations.

Molecular Tuning of Rhodopsins for High Visual Sensitivity in Different Light Environments : Variation in Absorbance Spectrum and Opsin Sequence within and between Species

Visual pigments of different animal species must have evolved at some stage to match the prevailing light environments, since all visual functions depend on their ability to absorb available photons and transduce the event into a reliable neural signal. There is a large literature on correlation between the light environment and spectral sensitivity between different fish species. However, little work has been done on evolutionary adaptation between separated populations within species. More generally, little is known about the rate of evolutionary adaptation to changing spectral environments. The objective of this thesis is to illuminate the constraints under which the evolutionary tuning of visual pigments works as evident in: scope, tempo, available molecular routes, and signal/noise trade-offs. Aquatic environments offer Nature s own laboratories for research on visual pigment properties, as naturally occurring light environments offer an enormous range of variation in both spectral composition and intensity. The present thesis focuses on the visual pigments that serve dim-light vision in two groups of model species, teleost fishes and mysid crustaceans. The geographical emphasis is in the brackish Baltic Sea area with its well-known postglacial isolation history and its aquatic fauna of both marine and fresh-water origin. The absorbance spectrum of the (single) dim-light visual pigment were recorded by microspectrophotometry (MSP) in single rods of 26 fish species and single rhabdoms of 8 opossum shrimp populations of the genus Mysis inhabiting marine, brackish or freshwater environments. Additionally, spectral sensitivity was determined from six Mysis populations by electroretinogram (ERG) recording. The rod opsin gene was sequenced in individuals of four allopatric populations of the sand goby (Pomatoschistus minutus). Rod opsins of two other goby species were investigated as outgroups for comparison. Rod absorbance spectra of the Baltic subspecies or populations of the primarily marine species herring (Clupea harengus membras), sand goby (P. minutus), and flounder (Platichthys flesus) were long-wavelength-shifted compared to their marine populations. The spectral shifts are consistent with adaptation for improved quantum catch (QC) as well as improved signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of vision in the Baltic light environment. Since the chromophore of the pigment was pure A1 in all cases, this has apparently been achieved by evolutionary tuning of the opsin visual pigment. By contrast, no opsin-based differences were evident between lake and sea populations of species of fresh-water origin, which can tune their pigment by varying chromophore ratios. A more detailed analysis of differences in absorbance spectra and opsin sequence between and within populations was conducted using the sand goby as model species. Four allopatric populations from the Baltic Sea (B), Swedish west coast (S), English Channel (E), and Adriatic Sea (A) were examined. Rod absorbance spectra, characterized by the wavelength of maximum absorbance (λmax), differed between populations and correlated with differences in the spectral light transmission of the respective water bodies. The greatest λmax shift as well as the greatest opsin sequence difference was between the Baltic and the Adriatic populations. The significant within-population variation of the Baltic λmax values (506-511 nm) was analyzed on the level of individuals and was shown to correlate well with opsin sequence substitutions. The sequences of individuals with λmax at shorter wavelengths were identical to that of the Swedish population, whereas those with λmax at longer wavelengths additionally had substitution F261F/Y in the sixth transmembrane helix of the protein. This substitution (Y261) was also present in the Baltic common gobies and is known to redshift spectra. The tuning mechanism of the long-wavelength type Baltic sand gobies is assumed to be the co-expression of F261 and Y261 in all rods to produce ≈ 5 nm redshift. The polymorphism of the Baltic sand goby population possibly indicates ambiguous selection pressures in the Baltic Sea. The visual pigments of all lake populations of the opossum shrimp (Mysis relicta) were red-shifted by 25 nm compared with all Baltic Sea populations. This is calculated to confer a significant advantage in both QC and SNR in many humus-rich lakes with reddish water. Since only A2 chromophore was present, the differences obviously reflect evolutionary tuning of the visual protein, the opsin. The changes have occurred within the ca. 9000 years that the lakes have been isolated from the Sea after the most recent glaciation. At present, it seems that the mechanism explaining the spectral differences between lake and sea populations is not an amino acid substitution at any other conventional tuning site, but the mechanism is yet to be found.

Individual variation in in vitro efficacy of antiplatelet medication - aspirin and clopidogrel

Antiplatelet medication is known to decrease adverse effects in patients with atherothrombotic disease. However, despite ongoing antiplatelet medication considerable number of patients suffer from atherothrombotic events. The aims of the study were 1) to evaluate the individual variability in platelet functions and compare the usability of different methods in detecting it, 2) to assess variability in efficacy of antiplatelet medication with aspirin (acetylsalicylic acid) or the combination of aspirin and clopidogrel and 3) to investigate the main genetic and clinical variables as well as potential underlying mechanisms of variability in efficacy of antiplatelet medication. In comparisons of different platelet function tests in 19 healthy individuals PFA-100® correlated with traditional methods of measuring platelet function and was thus considered appropriate for testing individual variability in platelet activity. Efficacy of ongoing 100mg aspirin daily was studied in 101 patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). Aspirin response was measured with arachidonic acid (AA)-induced platelet aggregation, which reflects cyclo-oxygenase (COX)-1 dependent thromboxane (Tx) A2 formation, and PFA-100®, which evaluates platelet activation under high shear stress in the presence of collagen and epinephrine. Five percent of patients failed to show inhibition of AA-aggregation and 21% of patients had normal PFA-100® results despite aspirin and were thus considered non-responders to aspirin. Interestingly, the two methods of assessing aspirin efficacy, platelet aggregation and PFA-100®, detected different populations as being aspirin non-responders. It could be postulated that PFA-100® actually measures enhanced platelet function, which is not directly associated with TxA2 inhibition exerted by aspirin. Clopidogrel efficacy was assessed in 50 patients who received a 300mg loading dose of clopidogrel 2.5 h prior to percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and in 51 patients who were given a loading dose of 300mg combined with a five day treatment of 75mg clopidogrel daily mimicking ongoing treatment. Clopidogrel response was assessed with ADP-induced aggregations, due to its mechanism of action as an inhibitor of ADP-induced activation. When patients received only a loading dose of clopidogrel prior to PCI, 40% did not gain measurable inhibition of their ADP-induced platelet activity (inhibition of 10% or less). Prolongation of treatment so that all patients had reached a plateau of inhibition exerted by clopidogrel, decreased the incidence of non-responders to 20%. Polymorphisms of COX-1 and GP VI, as well as diabetes and female gender, were associated with decreased in vitro aspirin efficacy. Diabetes also impaired the in vitro efficacy of short-term clopidogrel. Decreased response to clopidogrel was associated with limited inhibition by ARMX, an antagonist of P2Y12-receptor, suggesting the reason for clopidogrel resistance to be receptor-dependent. Conclusions: Considerable numbers of CAD patients were non-responders either to aspirin, clopidogrel or both. In the future, platelet function tests may be helpful to individually select effective and safe antiplatelet medication for these patients.

Genetic Variation and Clinical Manifestations in Inflammatory Bowel Disease

Crohn s disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC), collectively known as inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), are characterised by chronic inflammation of the gastrointestinal tract. IBD prevalence in Finland is approximately 3-4 per 1000 inhabitants with a peak incidence in adolescence. The symptoms of IBD include diarrhoea, abdominal pain, fever, and weight loss. The precise aetiology of IBD is unknown but interplay of environmental risk factors and immunologic changes trigger the disease in a genetically susceptible individual. Twin and family studies have provided strong evidence for genetic factors in IBD susceptibility, and genetic factors may be more prominent in CD than UC. The first CD susceptibility gene was identified in 2001. Three common mutations R702W, G908R, and 1007fs of the CARD15/NOD2 gene are shown to associate independently with CD but the magnitude of association varies between different populations. The present study aimed at identifying mutations and genetic variations in IBD susceptibility and candidate genes. In addition, correlation to phenotype was also assessed. One of the main objectives of this study was to evaluate the role of CARD15 in a Finnish CD cohort. 271 CD patients were studied for the three common mutations and the results showed a lower mutation frequency than in other Caucasian populations. Only 16% of the patients carried one of the three mutations. Ileal location as well as stricturing and penetrating behaviour of the disease were associated with occurrence of the mutations. The whole protein coding region of CARD15 was screened for possible Finnish founder mutations. In addition to several sequence variants, five novel mutations (R38M, W355X, P727L, W907R, and R1019X) were identified in five patients. Functional consequences of these novel variants were studied in vitro, and these studies demonstrated a profound impairment of MDP response. Investigation of CARD15 mutation frequency in healthy people across three continents showed a large geographic fluctuation. No simple correlation between mutation frequency and disease incidence was seen in populations studied. The occurrence of double mutant carriers in healthy controls suggested that the penetrance of risk alleles is low. Other main objectives aimed at identifying other genetic variations that are involved in the susceptibility to IBD. We investigated the most plausible IBD candidate genes including TRAF6, SLC22A4, SLC22A5, DLG5, TLR4, TNFRSF1A, ABCB1/MDR1, IL23R, and ATG16L1. The marker for a chromosome 5 risk haplotype and the rare HLA-DRB1*0103 allele were also studied. The study cohort consisted of 699 IBD patients (240 CD and 459 UC), of which 23% had a first-degree relative with IBD. Of the several candidate genes studied, IL23R was associated with CD susceptibility, and TNFRSF1A as well as the HLA-DRB1*0103 allele with UC susceptibility. IL23R variants also showed association with the stricturing phenotype and longer disease duration in CD patients. In addition, TNFRSF1A variants were more common among familial UC and ileocolonic CD. In conclusion, the common CARD15 mutations were shown to account for 16% of CD cases in Finland. Novel CARD15 variants identified in the present study are most likely disease-causing mutations, as judged by the results of in vitro studies. The present study also confirms the IL23R association with CD susceptibility and, in addition, TNFRSF1A and HLA-DRB1*0103 allele association with UC of specific clinical phenotypes.

Regulating Food Consumption : Studies of change and variation in Europe

The role of people as buyers and eaters of food has changed significantly. From being protected by a paternalistic welfare state, people appear to be accorded more freedom and responsibility as individuals, where attention is redirected from the state towards market relations. Many have asserted that these changes are accompanied by fragmentation, individualisation, and privatisation, leading to individual uncertainty and lack of confidence. But empirical observations do not always confirm this, distrust is not necessarily growing and while responsibilities may change, the state still plays an active role. This dissertation explores changing relationships between states and markets, on the one hand, and ordinary people in their capacities as consumers and citizens, on the other. Do we see the emergence of new forms of regulation of food consumption? If so, what is the scope and what are the characteristics? Theories of regulation addressing questions about individualisation and self-governance are combined with a conceptualisation of consumption as processes of institutionalisation, involving daily routines, the division of labour between production and consumption, and the institutional field in which consumption is embedded. The analyses focus on the involvement of the state, food producers and scientific, first of all nutritional, expertise in regulating consumption, and on popular responses. Two periods come out as important, first when the ideas of “designing the good life” emerged, giving the state a very particular role in regulating food consumption, and, second, when this “designing” is replaced by ideas of choice and individual responsibility. One might say that “consumer choice” has become a mode of regulation. I use mainly historical studies from Norway to analyse the shifting role of the state in regulating food consumption, complemented with population surveys from six European countries to study how modernisation processes are associated with trust. The studies find that changing regulation is not only a question of societal or state vs individual responsibilities. Degrees of organisation and formalisation are important as well. While increasing organisation may represent discipline and abuses of power (including exploitation of consumer loyalty), organisation can also, to the consumer, provide higher predictability, systems to deal with malfeasance, and efficiency which may provide conditions for acting. The welfare state and the neo-liberal state have very different types of solutions. The welfare state solution is based on (national) egalitarianism, paternalism and discipline (of the market as well as households). Such solutions are still prominent in Norway. Individualisation and self-regulation may represent a regulatory response not only to a declining legitimacy of this kind of interventionism, but also increasing organisational complexity. This is reflected in large-scale re-regulation of markets as well as in relationships with households and consumers. Individualisation of responsibility is to the consumer not a matter of the number of choices that are presented on the shelves, but how choice as a form of consumer based involvement is institutionalised. It is recognition of people as “end-consumers”, as social actors, with systems of empowerment politically as well as via the provisioning system. ‘Consumer choice’ as a regulatory strategy includes not only communicative efforts to make people into “choosing consumers”, but also the provision of institutions which recognise consumer interests and agency. When this is lacking we find distrust as representing powerlessness. Individual responsibility-taking represents agency and is not always a matter of loyal support to shared goals, but involves protest and creativity. More informal (‘communitarian’) innovations may be an indication of that, where self-realisation is intimately combined with responsibility for social problems. But as solutions to counteract existing imbalances of power in the food market the impacts of such initiatives are probably more as part of consumer mobilisation and politicisation than as alternative provisioning.

Genetic variation in the LDL receptor-related protein 5 (LRP5) gene : Association with bone health and metabolic parameters

Bone mass accrual and maintenance are regulated by a complex interplay between genetic and environmental factors. Recent studies have revealed an important role for the low-density lipoprotein receptor-related protein 5 (LRP5) in this process. The aim of this thesis study was to identify novel variants in the LRP5 gene and to further elucidate the association of LRP5 and its variants with various bone health related clinical characteristics. The results of our studies show that loss-of-function mutations in LRP5 cause severe osteoporosis not only in homozygous subjects but also in the carriers of these mutations, who have significantly reduced bone mineral density (BMD) and increased susceptibility to fractures. In addition, we demonstrated for the first time that a common polymorphic LRP5 variant (p.A1330V) was associated with reduced peak bone mass, an important determinant of BMD and osteoporosis in later life. The results from these two studies are concordant with results seen in other studies on LRP5 mutations and in association studies linking genetic variation in LRP5 with BMD and osteoporosis. Several rare LRP5 variants were identified in children with recurrent fractures. Sequencing and multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification (MLPA) analyses revealed no disease-causing mutations or whole-exon deletions. Our findings from clinical assessments and family-based genotype-phenotype studies suggested that the rare LRP5 variants identified are not the definite cause of fractures in these children. Clinical assessments of our study subjects with LPR5 mutations revealed an unexpectedly high prevalence of impaired glucose tolerance and dyslipidaemia. Moreover, in subsequent studies we discovered that common polymorphic LRP5 variants are associated with unfavorable metabolic characteristics. Changes in lipid profile were already apparent in pre-pubertal children. These results, together with the findings from other studies, suggest an important role for LRP5 also in glucose and lipid metabolism. Our results underscore the important role of LRP5 not only in bone mass accrual and maintenance of skeletal health but also in glucose and lipid metabolism. The role of LRP5 in bone metabolism has long been studied, but further studies with larger study cohorts are still needed to evaluate the specific role of LRP5 variants as metabolic risk factors.

Modeling and Forecasting Implied Volatility: Implications for Trading, Pricing, and Risk Management

Modeling and forecasting of implied volatility (IV) is important to both practitioners and academics, especially in trading, pricing, hedging, and risk management activities, all of which require an accurate volatility. However, it has become challenging since the 1987 stock market crash, as implied volatilities (IVs) recovered from stock index options present two patterns: volatility smirk(skew) and volatility term-structure, if the two are examined at the same time, presents a rich implied volatility surface (IVS). This implies that the assumptions behind the Black-Scholes (1973) model do not hold empirically, as asset prices are mostly influenced by many underlying risk factors. This thesis, consists of four essays, is modeling and forecasting implied volatility in the presence of options markets’ empirical regularities. The first essay is modeling the dynamics IVS, it extends the Dumas, Fleming and Whaley (DFW) (1998) framework; for instance, using moneyness in the implied forward price and OTM put-call options on the FTSE100 index, a nonlinear optimization is used to estimate different models and thereby produce rich, smooth IVSs. Here, the constant-volatility model fails to explain the variations in the rich IVS. Next, it is found that three factors can explain about 69-88% of the variance in the IVS. Of this, on average, 56% is explained by the level factor, 15% by the term-structure factor, and the additional 7% by the jump-fear factor. The second essay proposes a quantile regression model for modeling contemporaneous asymmetric return-volatility relationship, which is the generalization of Hibbert et al. (2008) model. The results show strong negative asymmetric return-volatility relationship at various quantiles of IV distributions, it is monotonically increasing when moving from the median quantile to the uppermost quantile (i.e., 95%); therefore, OLS underestimates this relationship at upper quantiles. Additionally, the asymmetric relationship is more pronounced with the smirk (skew) adjusted volatility index measure in comparison to the old volatility index measure. Nonetheless, the volatility indices are ranked in terms of asymmetric volatility as follows: VIX, VSTOXX, VDAX, and VXN. The third essay examines the information content of the new-VDAX volatility index to forecast daily Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimates and compares its VaR forecasts with the forecasts of the Filtered Historical Simulation and RiskMetrics. All daily VaR models are then backtested from 1992-2009 using unconditional, independence, conditional coverage, and quadratic-score tests. It is found that the VDAX subsumes almost all information required for the volatility of daily VaR forecasts for a portfolio of the DAX30 index; implied-VaR models outperform all other VaR models. The fourth essay models the risk factors driving the swaption IVs. It is found that three factors can explain 94-97% of the variation in each of the EUR, USD, and GBP swaption IVs. There are significant linkages across factors, and bi-directional causality is at work between the factors implied by EUR and USD swaption IVs. Furthermore, the factors implied by EUR and USD IVs respond to each others’ shocks; however, surprisingly, GBP does not affect them. Second, the string market model calibration results show it can efficiently reproduce (or forecast) the volatility surface for each of the swaptions markets.

Essays on Risk Modeling. Applications to Portfolio and Risk Management (summary section only)

In this thesis we deal with the concept of risk. The objective is to bring together and conclude on some normative information regarding quantitative portfolio management and risk assessment. The first essay concentrates on return dependency. We propose an algorithm for classifying markets into rising and falling. Given the algorithm, we derive a statistic: the Trend Switch Probability, for detection of long-term return dependency in the first moment. The empirical results suggest that the Trend Switch Probability is robust over various volatility specifications. The serial dependency in bear and bull markets behaves however differently. It is strongly positive in rising market whereas in bear markets it is closer to a random walk. Realized volatility, a technique for estimating volatility from high frequency data, is investigated in essays two and three. In the second essay we find, when measuring realized variance on a set of German stocks, that the second moment dependency structure is highly unstable and changes randomly. Results also suggest that volatility is non-stationary from time to time. In the third essay we examine the impact from market microstructure on the error between estimated realized volatility and the volatility of the underlying process. With simulation-based techniques we show that autocorrelation in returns leads to biased variance estimates and that lower sampling frequency and non-constant volatility increases the error variation between the estimated variance and the variance of the underlying process. From these essays we can conclude that volatility is not easily estimated, even from high frequency data. It is neither very well behaved in terms of stability nor dependency over time. Based on these observations, we would recommend the use of simple, transparent methods that are likely to be more robust over differing volatility regimes than models with a complex parameter universe. In analyzing long-term return dependency in the first moment we find that the Trend Switch Probability is a robust estimator. This is an interesting area for further research, with important implications for active asset allocation.

The Relationship Between Liquidity, Trading Activity and Return - Studies of the Finnish and Swedish Stock Markets

Liquidity, or how easy an investment is to buy or sell, is becoming increasingly important for financial market participants. The objective of this dissertation is to contribute to the understanding of how liquidity affects financial markets. The first essays analyze the actions taken by underwriters immediately after listing to improve liquidity of IPO stock. To estimate the impact of underwriter activity on the pricing of the IPOs, the order book during the first weeks of trading in the IPO stock is studied. Evidence of stabilization and liquidity enhancing activities by underwriters is found. The second half of the dissertation is concerned with the daily trading of stocks where liquidity may be impacted by policy issues such as changes in taxes or exchange fees and by opening the access to the markets for foreign investors. The desirability of a transaction tax on securities trading is addressed. An increase in transaction tax is found to cause lower prices and higher volatility. In the last essay the objective is to determine if the liquidity of a security has an impact on the return investors require. The results support the notion that returns are negatively correlated to liquidity.

Evaluating the Predictability of the Volatility Smile Using Return Distributions

In this paper, we examine the predictability of observed volatility smiles in three major European index options markets, utilising the historical return distributions of the respective underlying assets. The analysis involves an application of the Black (1976) pricing model adjusted in accordance with the Jarrow-Rudd methodology as proposed in 1982. Thereby we adjust the expected future returns for the third and fourth central moments as these represent deviations from normality in the distributions of observed returns. Thus, they are considered one possible explanation to the existence of the smile. The obtained results indicate that the inclusion of the higher moments in the pricing model to some extent reduces the volatility smile, compared with the unadjusted Black-76 model. However, as the smile is partly a function of supply, demand, and liquidity, and as such intricate to model, this modification does not appear sufficient to fully capture the characteristics of the smile.