Breath Testing by Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy for Solvent Intoxication Diagnostics

Technical or contaminated ethanol products are sometimes ingested either accidentally or on purpose. Typical misused products are black-market liquor and automotive products, e.g., windshield washer fluids. In addition to less toxic solvents, these liquids may contain the deadly methanol. Symptoms of even lethal solvent poisoning are often non-specific at the early stage. The present series of studies was carried out to develop a method for solvent intoxication breath diagnostics to speed up the diagnosis procedure conventionally based on blood tests. Especially in the case of methanol ingestion, the analysis method should be sufficiently sensitive and accurate to determine the presence of even small amounts of methanol from the mixture of ethanol and other less-toxic components. In addition to the studies on the FT-IR method, the Dräger 7110 evidential breath analyzer was examined to determine its ability to reveal a coexisting toxic solvent. An industrial Fourier transform infrared analyzer was modified for breath testing. The sample cell fittings were widened and the cell size reduced in order to get an alveolar sample directly from a single exhalation. The performance and the feasibility of the Gasmet FT-IR analyzer were tested in clinical settings and in the laboratory. Actual human breath screening studies were carried out with healthy volunteers, inebriated homeless men, emergency room patients and methanol-intoxicated patients. A number of the breath analysis results were compared to blood test results in order to approximate the blood-breath relationship. In the laboratory experiments, the analytical performance of the Gasmet FT-IR analyzer and Dräger 7110 evidential breath analyzer was evaluated by means of artificial samples resembling exhaled breath. The investigations demonstrated that a successful breath ethanol analysis by Dräger 7110 evidential breath analyzer could exclude any significant methanol intoxication. In contrast, the device did not detect very high levels of acetone, 1-propanol and 2-propanol in simulated breath. The Dräger 7110 evidential breath ethanol analyzer was not equipped to recognize the interfering component. According to the studies the Gasmet FT-IR analyzer was adequately sensitive, selective and accurate for solvent intoxication diagnostics. In addition to diagnostics, the fast breath solvent analysis proved feasible for controlling the ethanol and methanol concentration during haemodialysis treatment. Because of the simplicity of the sampling and analysis procedure, non-laboratory personnel, such as police officers or social workers, could also operate the analyzer for screening purposes.

Ventricular repolarization during cardiovascular autonomic function testing

The autonomic nervous system is an important modulator of ventricular repolarization and arrhythmia vulnerability. This study explored the effects of cardiovascular autonomic function tests on repolarization and its heterogeneity, with a special reference to congenital arrhythmogenic disorders typically associated with stress-induced fatal ventricular arrhythmias. The first part explored the effects of standardized autonomic tests on QT intervals in a 12-lead electrocardiogram and in multichannel magnetocardiography in 10 healthy adults. The second part studied the effects of deep breathing, Valsalva manouvre, mental stress, sustained handgrip and mild exercise on QT intervals in asymptomatic patients with LQT1 subtype of the hereditary long QT syndrome (n=9) and in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular dysplasia (ARVD, n=9). Even strong sympathetic activation had no effects on spatial QT interval dispersion in healthy subjects, but deep respiratory efforts and Valsalva influenced it in ways that were opposite in electrocardiographic and magnetocardiographic recordings. LQT1 patients showed blunted QT interval and sinus nodal responses to sympathetic challenge, as well as an exaggerated QT prolongation during the recovery phases. LQT1 patients showed a QT interval recovery overshoot in 2.4 ± 1.7 tests compared with 0.8 ± 0.7 in healthy controls (P = 0.02). Valsalva strain prolonged the T wave peak to T wave end interval only in the LQT1 patients, considered to reflect the arrhythmogenic substrate in this syndrome. ARVD patients showed signs of abnormal repolarization in the right ventricle, modulated by abrupt sympathetic activation. An electrocardiographic marker reflecting interventricular dispersion of repolarization was introduced. It showed that LQT1 patients exhibit a repolarization gradient from the left ventricle towards the right ventricle, significantly larger than in controls. In contrast, ARVD patients showed a repolarization gradient from the right ventricle towards the left. Valsalva strain amplified the repolarization gradient in LQT1 patients whereas it transiently reversed it in patients with ARVD. In conclusion, intrathoracic volume and pressure changes influence regional electrocardiographic and magnetocardiographic QT interval measurements differently. Especially recovery phases of standard cardiovascular autonomic functions tests and Valsalva manoeuvre reveal the abnormal repolarization in asymptomatic LQT1 patients. Both LQT1 and ARVD patients have abnormal interventricular repolarization gradients, modulated by abrupt sympathetic activation. Autonomic testing and in particular the Valsalva manoeuvre are potentially useful in unmasking abnormal repolarization in these syndromes.

Optimal Risk Adoption: A Real Options Approach

This study develops a real options approach for analyzing the optimal risk adoption policy in an environment where the adoption means a switch from one stochastic flow representation into another. We establish that increased volatility needs not decelerate investment, as predicted by the standard literature on real options, once the underlying volatility of the state is made endogenous. We prove that for a decision maker with a convex (concave) objective function, increased post-adoption volatility increases (decreases) the expected cumulative present value of the post-adoption profit flow, which consequently decreases (increases) the option value of waiting and, therefore, accelerates (decelerates) current investment.

Bank Run Risk and Optimal Reserves

We characterize the optimal reserves, and the generated probability of a bank run, as a function of the penalty imposed by the central bank, the probability of depositors’ liquidity needs, and the return on outside investment opportunities.

Optimal management of conflicting species: Grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) and Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) in the Baltic Sea

The objective of this thesis is to examine the economic effects in the conflict between grey seal population and the salmon fishery in the Baltic Sea. We will formulate a bioeconomic model which provides new insights on the optimal management of Atlantic salmon with respect to the effects brought about by the grey seal population. As the catch losses caused by seals have an effect on salmon fishery in Baltic, we will study how seal population affects the present value of the salmon fishery. The study considers the Finnish coastal trap net fishery. The bioeconomic model considers a scenario of sole salmon fishery and a scenario of salmon fishery affected by the grey seal population. On the basis of these scenarios, a seal compensation scheme is introduced. We can observe a significant economic seal-induced effect on the salmon fishery. The results suggest that the present seal compensation scheme emploid by the Finnish government is suboptimal. This thesis is part of the TARMO –project, in which the conflict between grey seal population and salmon fishery is studied using the methods of environmental economics.

A modell of socially optimal hydro reservoir usage - yelding socially optimal outcomes in nordic electricity markets

An extensive electricity transmission network facilitates electricity trading between Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark. Currently most of the area's power generation is traded at NordPool, where the trading volumes have steadily increased since the early 1990's, when the exchange was founded. The Nordic electricity is expected to follow the current trend and further integrate with the other European electricity markets. Hydro power is the source for roughly a half of the supply in the Nordic electricity market and most of the hydro is generated in Norway. The dominating role of hydro power distinguishes the Nordic electricity market from most of the other market places. Production of hydro power varies mainly due to hydro reservoirs and demand for electricity. Hydro reservoirs are affected by water inflows that differ each year. The hydro reservoirs explain remarkably the behaviour of the Nordic electricity markets. Therefore among others, Kauppi and Liski (2008) have developed a model that analyzes the behaviour of the markets using hydro reservoirs as explanatory factors. Their model includes, for example, welfare loss due to socially suboptimal hydro reservoir usage, socially optimal electricity price, hydro reservoir storage and thermal reservoir storage; that are referred as outcomes. However, the model does not explain the real market condition but rather an ideal situation. In the model the market is controlled by one agent, i.e. one agent controls all the power generation reserves; it is referred to as a socially optimal strategy. Article by Kauppi and Liski (2008) includes an assumption where an individual agent has a certain fraction of market power, e.g. 20 % or 30 %. In order to maintain the focus of this thesis, this part of their paper is omitted. The goal of this thesis is two-fold. Firstly we expand the results from the socially optimal strategy for years 2006-08, as the earlier study finishes in 2005. The second objective is to improve on the methods from the previous study. This thesis results several outcomes (SPOT-price and welfare loss, etc.) due to socially optimal actions. Welfare loss is interesting as it describes the inefficiency of the market. SPOT-price is an important output for the market participants as it often has an effect on end users' electricity bills. Another function is to modify and try to improve the model by means of using more accurate input data, e.g. by considering pollution trade rights effect on input data. After modifications to the model, new welfare losses are calculated and compared with the same results before the modifications. The hydro reservoir has the higher explanatory significance in the model followed by thermal power. In Nordic markets, thermal power reserves are mostly nuclear power and other thermal sources (coal, natural gas, oil, peat). It can be argued that hydro and thermal reservoirs determine electricity supply. Roughly speaking, the model takes into account electricity demand and supply, and several parameters related to them (water inflow, oil price, etc.), yielding finally the socially optimal outcomes. The author of this thesis is not aware of any similar model being tested before. There have been some other studies that are close to the Kauppi and Liski (2008) model, but those have a somewhat different focus. For example, a specific feature in the model is the focus on long-run capacity usage that differs from the previous studies on short-run market power. The closest study to the model is from California's wholesale electricity markets that, however, uses different methodology. Work is constructed as follows.

An optimal local approximation algorithm for max-min linear programs

In a max-min LP, the objective is to maximise ω subject to Ax ≤ 1, Cx ≥ ω1, and x ≥ 0 for nonnegative matrices A and C. We present a local algorithm (constant-time distributed algorithm) for approximating max-min LPs. The approximation ratio of our algorithm is the best possible for any local algorithm; there is a matching unconditional lower bound.

Optimal Use of Treatment Modalities and Treatment Results of Osteosarcoma and Soft Tissue Sarcomas

Soft tissue sarcomas are malignant tumours of mesenchymal origin. Because of infiltrative growth pattern, simple enucleation of the tumour causes a high rate of local recurrence. Instead, these tumours should be resected with a rim of normal tissue around the tumour. Data on the adequate margin width are scarce. At Helsinki University Central Hospital (HUCH) a multidisciplinary treatment group started in 1987. Surgical resection with a wide margin (2.5 cm) is the primary aim. In case of narrower margin radiation therapy is necessary. The role of adjuvant chemotherapy remains unclear. Our aims were to study local control by the surgical margin and to develop a new prognostic tool to aid decision-making on which patients should receive adjuvant chemotherapy. Patients with soft tissue sarcoma of the extremity or the trunk wall referred to HUCH during 1987-2002 form material in Studies I and II. External validation material comes from the Lund university sarcoma registry. The smallest surgical margin of at least 2.5 centimetres yielded local control of 89 per cent at five years. Amputation rate was 9 per cent. The proposed prognostic model with necrosis, vascular invasion, size on a continuous scale, depth, location and grade worked well both in Helsinki material and in the validation material, and it also showed good calibration. Based on the present study, we recommend the smallest surgical margin of 2-3 centimetres in soft tissue sarcoma irrespective of grade. Improvement in local control was present but modest in margins wider than 1 centimetre. In cases where gaining a wider margin would lead to a considerable loss of function, smaller margin is to be considered combined to radiation therapy. Patients treated with inadequate margins should be offered radiation therapy irrespective of tumour grade. Our new prognostic model to estimate 10-year survival probability in patients with soft tissue sarcoma of the extremities or trunk wall showed good dicscrimination and calibration. For time being the prognostic model is available for scientific use and further validations. In the future, the model may aid in clinical decision-making. For operable osteosarcoma, neoadjuvant multidrug chemotherapy followed by delayed surgery and multidrug adjuvant chemotherapy is the treatment of choice. Overall survival rates at five years are approximately 75 per cent in modern trials with classical osteosarcoma. All patients diagnosed and reported to the Finnish Cancer Registry with osteosarcoma in Finland during 1971-2005 form the material in Studies III and IV. Limb-salvage rate increased from 23 per cent to 78 per cent during 1971-2005. The 10-year sarcoma-specific survival for the whole study population improved from 32 per cent to 62 per cent. It was 75 per cent for patients with a local high-grade osteosarcoma of the extremity diagnosed during 1991-2005. This study outlines the improved prognosis of osteosarcoma patients in Finland with modern chemotherapy. The 10-year survival rates are good also in an international scale. Nonetheless, their limb-salvage rate remains inferior to those seen for highly selected patient series. Overall, the centralisation of osteosarcoma treatment would most likely improve both survival and limb-salvage rates even further.

Optimal multispecies fishery management in the Baltic Sea: A bioeconomic analysis

The aim of the thesis is to assess the fishery of Baltic cod, herring and sprat by simulation over 50 years time period. We form a bioeconomic multispecies model for the species. We include species interactions into the model because especially cod and sprat stocks have significant effects on each other. We model the development of population dynamics, catches and profits of the fishery with current fishing mortalities, as well as with the optimal profit maximizing fishing mortalities. Thus, we see how the fishery would develop with current mortalities, and how the fishery should be developed in order to yield maximal profits. Especially cod stock has been quite low recently and by optimizing the fishing mortality it could get recovered. In addition, we assess what would happen to the fisheries of the species if more favourable environmental conditions for cod recruitment dominate in the Baltic Sea. The results may yield new information for the fisheries management. According to the results the fishery of Baltic cod, herring and sprat are not at the most profitable level. The fishing mortalities of each species should be lower in order to maximize the profits. By fishing mortality optimizing the net present value would be almost three times higher in the simulation period. The lower fishing mortality of cod would result in a cod stock recovery. If the environmental conditions in the Baltic Sea improved, cod stock would recover even without a decrease in the fishing mortality. Then the increased cod stock would restrict herring and sprat stock remarkably, and harvesting of these species would not be as profitable anymore.

Sensitivity of wetland methane emissions to model assumptions: application and model testing against site observations

Abstract. Methane emissions from natural wetlands and rice paddies constitute a large proportion of atmospheric methane, but the magnitude and year-to-year variation of these methane sources is still unpredictable. Here we describe and evaluate the integration of a methane biogeochemical model (CLM4Me; Riley et al., 2011) into the Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4CN) in order to better explain spatial and temporal variations in methane emissions. We test new functions for soil pH and redox potential that impact microbial methane production in soils. We also constrain aerenchyma in plants in always-inundated areas in order to better represent wetland vegetation. Satellite inundated fraction is explicitly prescribed in the model because there are large differences between simulated fractional inundation and satellite observations. A rice paddy module is also incorporated into the model, where the fraction of land used for rice production is explicitly prescribed. The model is evaluated at the site level with vegetation cover and water table prescribed from measurements. Explicit site level evaluations of simulated methane emissions are quite different than evaluating the grid cell averaged emissions against available measurements. Using a baseline set of parameter values, our model-estimated average global wetland emissions for the period 1993–2004 were 256 Tg CH4 yr−1, and rice paddy emissions in the year 2000 were 42 Tg CH4 yr−1. Tropical wetlands contributed 201 Tg CH4 yr−1, or 78 % of the global wetland flux. Northern latitude (>50 N) systems contributed 12 Tg CH4 yr−1. We expect this latter number may be an underestimate due to the low high-latitude inundated area captured by satellites and unrealistically low high-latitude productivity and soil carbon predicted by CLM4. Sensitivity analysis showed a large range (150–346 Tg CH4 yr−1) in predicted global methane emissions. The large range was sensitive to: (1) the amount of methane transported through aerenchyma, (2) soil pH (± 100 Tg CH4 yr−1), and (3) redox inhibition (± 45 Tg CH4 yr−1).