Diagnostic Tests Based on Quantile Residuals for Nonlinear Time Series Models

This thesis studies quantile residuals and uses different methodologies to develop test statistics that are applicable in evaluating linear and nonlinear time series models based on continuous distributions. Models based on mixtures of distributions are of special interest because it turns out that for those models traditional residuals, often referred to as Pearson's residuals, are not appropriate. As such models have become more and more popular in practice, especially with financial time series data there is a need for reliable diagnostic tools that can be used to evaluate them. The aim of the thesis is to show how such diagnostic tools can be obtained and used in model evaluation. The quantile residuals considered here are defined in such a way that, when the model is correctly specified and its parameters are consistently estimated, they are approximately independent with standard normal distribution. All the tests derived in the thesis are pure significance type tests and are theoretically sound in that they properly take the uncertainty caused by parameter estimation into account. -- In Chapter 2 a general framework based on the likelihood function and smooth functions of univariate quantile residuals is derived that can be used to obtain misspecification tests for various purposes. Three easy-to-use tests aimed at detecting non-normality, autocorrelation, and conditional heteroscedasticity in quantile residuals are formulated. It also turns out that these tests can be interpreted as Lagrange Multiplier or score tests so that they are asymptotically optimal against local alternatives. Chapter 3 extends the concept of quantile residuals to multivariate models. The framework of Chapter 2 is generalized and tests aimed at detecting non-normality, serial correlation, and conditional heteroscedasticity in multivariate quantile residuals are derived based on it. Score test interpretations are obtained for the serial correlation and conditional heteroscedasticity tests and in a rather restricted special case for the normality test. In Chapter 4 the tests are constructed using the empirical distribution function of quantile residuals. So-called Khmaladze s martingale transformation is applied in order to eliminate the uncertainty caused by parameter estimation. Various test statistics are considered so that critical bounds for histogram type plots as well as Quantile-Quantile and Probability-Probability type plots of quantile residuals are obtained. Chapters 2, 3, and 4 contain simulations and empirical examples which illustrate the finite sample size and power properties of the derived tests and also how the tests and related graphical tools based on residuals are applied in practice.

Humanitaarisuuden varjossa : Poliittiset tekijät lastensiirroissa Ruotsiin sotiemme aikana ja niiden jälkeen

The evacuation of Finnish children to Sweden during WW II has often been called a small migration . Historical research on this subject is scarce, considering the great number of children involved. The present research has applied, apart from the traditional archive research, the framework of history-culture developed by Rüsen in order to have an all-inclusive approach to the impact of this historical event. The framework has three dimensions: political, aesthetic and cognitive. The collective memory of war children has also been discussed. The research looks for political factors involved in the evacuations during the Winter War and the Continuation War and the post-war period. The approach is wider than a purely humanitarian one. Political factors have had an impact in both Finland and Sweden, beginning from the decision-making process and ending with the discussion of the unexpected consequences of the evacuations in the Finnish Parliament in 1950. The Winter War (30.11.1939 13.3.1940) witnessed the first child transports. These were also the model for future decision making. The transports were begun on the initiative of Swedes Maja Sandler, the wife of the resigned minister of foreign affairs Rickard Sandler, and Hanna Rydh-Munck af Rosenschöld , but this activity was soon accepted by the Swedish government because the humanitarian help in the form of child transports lightened the political burden of Prime Minister Hansson, who was not willing to help Finland militarily. It was help that Finland never asked for and it was rejected at the beginning. The negative response of Minister Juho Koivisto was not taken very seriously. The political forces in Finland supporting child transports were stronger than those rejecting them. The major politicians in support belonged to Finland´s Swedish minority. In addition, close to 1 000 Finnish children remained in Sweden after the Winter War. No analysis was made of the reasons why these children did not return home. A committee set up to help Finland and Norway was established in Sweden in 1941. Its chairman was Torsten Nothin, an influential Swedish politician. In December 1941 he appealed to the Swedish government to provide help to Finnish children under the authority of The International Red Cross. This plea had no results. The delivery of great amounts of food to Finland, which was now at war with Great Britain, had automatically caused reactions among the allies against the Swedish imports through Gothenburg. This included the import of oil, which was essential for the Swedish navy and air force. Oil was later used successfully to force a reduction in commerce between Sweden and Finland. The contradiction between Sweden´s essential political interests and humanitarian help was solved in a way that did not harm the country´s vital political interests. Instead of delivering help to Finland, Finnish children were transported to Sweden through the organisations that had already been created. At the beginning of the Continuation War (25.6.1941 27.4.1945) negative opinion regarding child transports re-emerged in Finland. Karl-August Fagerholm implemented the transports in September 1941. In 1942, members of the conservative parties in the Finnish Parliament expressed their fear of losing the children to the Swedes. They suggested that Finland should withdraw from the inter-Nordic agreement, according to which the adoptions were approved by the court of the country where the child resided. This initiative failed. Paavo Virkkunen, an influential member of the conservative party Kokoomus in Finland, favoured the so-called good-father system, where help was delivered to Finland in the form of money and goods. Virkkunen was concerned about the consequences of a long stay in a Swedish family. The risk of losing the children was clear. The extreme conservative party (IKL, the Patriotic Movement of the Finnish People) wanted to alienate Finland from Sweden and bring Finland closer to Germany. Von Blücher, the German ambassador to Finland, had in his report to Berlin, mentioned the political consequences of the child transports. Among other things, they would bring Finland and Sweden closer to each other. He had also paid attention to the Nordic political orientation in Finland. He did not question or criticize the child transports. His main interest was to increase German political influence in Finland, and the Nordic political orientation was an obstacle. Fagerholm was politically ill-favoured by the Germans, because he had a strong Nordic political disposition and had criticised Germany´s activities in Norway. The criticism of child transports was at the same time criticism of Fagerholm. The official censorship organ of the Finnish government (VTL) denied the criticism of child transports in January 1942. The reasons were political. Statements made by members of the Finnish Parliament were also censored, because it was thought that they would offend the Swedes. In addition, the censorship organ used child transports as a means of active propaganda aimed at improving the relations between the two countries. The Finnish Parliament was informed in 1948 that about 15 000 Finnish children still remained in Sweden. These children would stay there permanently. In 1950 the members of the Agrarian Party in Finland stated that Finland should actively strive to get the children back. The party on the left (SKDL, the Democratic Movement of Finnish People) also focused on the unexpected consequences of the child transports. The Social Democrats, and largely Fagerholm, had been the main force in Finland behind the child transports. Members of the SKDL, controlled by Finland´s Communist Party, stated that the war time authorities were responsible for this war loss. Many of the Finnish parents could not get their children back despite repeated requests. The discussion of the problem became political, for example von Born, a member of the Swedish minority party RKP, related this problem to foreign policy by stating that the request to repatriate the Finnish children would have negative political consequences for the relations between Finland and Sweden. He emphasized expressing feelings of gratitude to the Swedes. After the war a new foreign policy was established by Prime Minister (1944 1946) and later President (1946 1956) Juho Kusti Paasikivi. The main cornerstone of this policy was to establish good relations with the Soviet Union. The other, often forgotten, cornerstone was to simultaneously establish good relations with other Nordic countries, especially Sweden, as a counterbalance. The unexpected results of the child evacuation, a Swedish initiative, had violated the good relations with Sweden. The motives of the Democratic Movement of Finnish People were much the same as those of the Patriotic Movement of Finnish People. Only the ideology was different. The Nordic political orientation was an obstacle to both parties. The position of the Democratic Movement of Finnish People was much better than that of the Patriotic Movement of Finnish People, because now one could clearly see the unexpected results, which included human tragedy for the many families who could not be re-united with their children despite their repeated requests. The Swedes questioned the figure given to the Finnish Parliament regarding the number of children permanently remaining in Sweden. This research agrees with the Swedes. In a calculation based on Swedish population registers, the number of these children is about 7 100. The reliability of this figure is increased by the fact that the child allowance programme began in Sweden in 1948. The prerequisite to have this allowance was that the child be in the Swedish population register. It was not necessary for the child to have Swedish nationality. The Finnish Parliament had false information about the number of Finnish children who remained in Sweden in 1942 and in 1950. There was no parliamentary control in Finland regarding child transports, because the decision was made by one cabinet member and speeches by MPs in the Finnish Parliament were censored, like all criticism regarding child transports to Sweden. In Great Britain parliamentary control worked better throughout the whole war, because the speeches regarding evacuation were not censored. At the beginning of the war certain members of the British Labour Party and the Welsh Nationalists were particularly outspoken about the scheme. Fagerholm does not discuss to any great extent the child transports in his memoirs. He does not evaluate the process and results as a whole. This research provides some possibilities for an evaluation of this sort. The Swedish medical reports give a clear picture of the physical condition of the Finnish children when arriving in Sweden. The transports actually revealed how bad the situation of the poorest children was. According to Titmuss, similar observations were made in Great Britain during the British evacuations. The child transports saved the lives of approximately 2 900 children. Most of these children were removed to Sweden to receive treatment for illnesses, but many among the healthy children were undernourished and some suffered from the effects of tuberculosis. The medical inspection in Finland was not thorough. If you compare the figure of 2 900 children saved and returned with the figure of about 7 100 children who remained permanently in Sweden, you may draw the conclusion that Finland as a country failed to benefit from the child transports, and that the whole operation was a political mistake with far-reaching consequenses. The basic goal of the operation was to save lives and have all the children return to Finland after the war. The difficulties with the repatriation of the children were mainly psychological. The level of child psychology in Finland at that time was low. One may question the report by Professor Martti Kaila regarding the adaptation of children to their families back in Finland. Anna Freud´s warnings concerning the difficulties that arise when child evacuees return are also valid in Finland. Freud viewed the emotional life of children in a way different from Kaila: the physical survival of a small child forces her to create strong emotional ties to the person who is looking after her. This, a characteristic of all small children, occurred with the Finnish children too, and it was something the political decision makers in Finland could not see during and after the war. It is a characteristic of all little children. Yet, such experiences were already evident during the Winter War. The best possible solution had been to limit the child transports only to children in need of medical treatment. Children from large and poor families had been helped by organising meals and by buying food from Denmark with Swedish money. Assisting Finland by all possible means should have been the basic goal of Fagerholm in September 1941, when the offer of child transports came from Sweden. Fagerholm felt gratitude towards the Swedes. The risks became clear to him only in 1943. The war children are today a rather scattered and diffuse group of people. Emotionally, part of these children remained in Sweden after the war. There is no clear collective memory, only individual memories; the collective memory of the war children has partly been shaped later through the activities of the war child associations. The main difference between the children evacuated in Finland (for example from Karelia to safer areas with their families) and the war children, who were sent abroad, is that the war children lack a shared story and experience with their families. They were outsiders . The whole matter is sensitive to many of such mothers and discussing the subject has often been avoided in families. The war-time censorship has continued in families through silence and avoidance and Finnish politicians and Finnish families had to face each other on this issue after the war. The lack of all-inclusive historical research has also prevented the formation of a collective awareness among war children returned to Finland or those remaining permanently abroad.. Knowledge of historical facts will help war-children by providing an opportunity to create an all-inclusive approach to the past. Personal experiences should be regarded as part of a large historical entity shadowed by war and where many political factors were at work in both Finland and Sweden. This means strengthening of the cognitive dimension discussed in Rüsen´s all-inclusive historical approach.

Kuoleman voimat : Kirkonväki suomalaisessa uskomusperinteessä

Powers of Death. Church-väki in the Finnish Folk Belief Tradition Folk belief tradition can be defined as a communication system in which the truth value of traditional motifs is judged by their usefulness and applicability. According to the Finnish belief tradition, a substance of power called väki resides in sacred elements and in entities which vitally affect human life. Väki is both ritually avoided and harnessed for beneficial or malevolent purposes. The powers of church and death merge in church-väki, which, in beliefs and narratives, emerges when the boundary between the living and the dead is crossed or violated. In rural societies where the relationship to the dying and the deceased was close, the church-väki tradition was relevant and productive. This study is based on approximately 2700 units of archived material from thel late 19th and early 20th centuries narratives, rite descriptions, and linguistic data. It explicates the concept of church-väki, presents the background of the tradition, and analyses narratives, their meanings, and their role in early modern world view. It also explores how the concept was used when constructing social boundaries and handling otherness in the early modern Finland. The theoretic emphasis is on conceptual and genre analysis, narrativity, as well as the multiple meanings and uses of folklore motifs. Descriptions of church-väki vary from it being an invisible force to a crowd of beings and decomposing corpses. The author defines church-väki as a fuzzy concept with three prototypical cores and several names, most of which are polysemous. Polysemous words connect church-väki with for example ghosts and devils, unkempt people, and vermin, constructing a loose paradigm of supernatural and social otherness. Folklore genres of the studied narratives range from stories of personal experience to fabulates. The taleworlds and their content range from realistic (near) to extraordinary (distant). The distance between the taleworld and reality has concrete (local and temporal), narrative, and normative aspects. Distant taleworlds often follow an ontology different than in real life, although the narratives may be carefully linked to reality. Instead of being fictive, they show what would be expected outside the socially constructed everyday order. Methods of narratology are applied to coherent legends, which locate dramatic events in distant taleworlds. Linguistic genres, based on structure, function here as narrative registers of folklore genres.

Il canto sospeso de Luigi Nono

This article explains how Nono's Il canto sospeso (1956), for solo voices, choir and orchestra, is structured in a logic of counterbalances for each musical action, overlapping a harmonic or ‘intuitive’ geometry, with a contrasting or ‘anti-intuitive’ plot. Unlike the typical relationships with the golden ratio, found in many musical examples in which it appears ‘naturally’ (see Tatlow 2001), intervals in the prime numbers series here are perceived as ‘counter-rhythm’; as a form of a counterintuitive distribution, or, as Jameson (2003:vii) suggests, as “a very irregular way” of apparent distribution.

Associations of interleukin-1 (IL-1) gene variation and IL-1 receptor antagonist phenotypes with immunological responses, metabolic dysregulation and type 2 diabetes

The upstream proinflammatory interleukin-1 (IL-1) cytokines, together with a naturally occurring IL-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1Ra), play a significant role in several diseases and physiologic conditions. The IL-1 proteins affect glucose homeostasis at multiple levels contributing to vascular injuries and metabolic dysregulations that precede diabetes. An association between IL-1 gene variations and IL-1Ra levels has been suggested, and genetic studies have reported associations with metabolic dysregulation and altered inflammatory responses. The principal aims of this study were to: 1) examine the associations of IL-1 gene variation and IL-1Ra expression in the development and persistence of thyroid antibodies in subacute thyroiditis; 2) investigate the associations of common variants in the IL-1 gene family with plasma glucose and insulin concentrations, glucose homeostasis measures and prevalent diabetes in a representative population sample; 3) investigate genetic and non-genetic determinants of IL-1Ra phenotypes in a cross-sectional setting in three independent study populations; 4) investigate in a prospective setting (a) whether variants of the IL-1 gene family are predictors for clinically incident diabetes in two population-based observational cohort studies; and (b) whether the IL-1Ra levels predict the progression of metabolic syndrome to overt diabetes during the median follow-up of 10.8 and 7.1 years. Results from on patients with subacte thyroiditis showed that the systemic IL-1Ra levels are elevated during a specific proinflammatory response and they correlated with C-reactive protein (CRP) levels. Genetic variation in the IL-1 family seemed to have an association with the appearance of thyroid peroxidase antibodies and persisting local autoimmune responses during the follow-up. Analysis of patients suffering from diabetes and metabolic traits suggested that genetic IL-1 variation and IL-1Ra play a role in glucose homeostasis and in the development of type 2 diabetes. The coding IL-1 beta SNP rs1143634 was associated with traits related to insulin resistance in cross-sectional analyses. Two haplotype variants of the IL-1 beta gene were associated with prevalent diabetes or incident diabetes in a prospective setting and both of these haplotypes were tagged by rs1143634. Three variants of the IL-1Ra gene and one of the IL-1 beta gene were consistently identified as significant, independent determinants of the IL-1Ra phenotype in two or three populations. The proportion of the phenotypic variation explained by the genetic factors was modest however, while obesity and other metabolic traits explained a larger part. Body mass index was the strongest predictor of systemic IL-1Ra concentration overall. Furthermore, the age-adjusted IL-1Ra concentrations were elevated in individuals with metabolic syndrome or diabetes when compared to those free of metabolic dysregulation. In prospective analyses the systemic IL-1Ra levels were found as independent predictors for the development of diabetes in people with metabolic syndrome even after adjustment for multiple other factors, including plasma glucose and CRP levels. The predictive power of IL-1Ra was better than that of CRP. The prospective results also provided some evidence for a role of common IL-1 alpha promoter SNP rs1800587 in the development of type 2 diabetes among men and suggested that the role may be gender specific. Likewise, common variations in the IL-1 beta coding region may have a gender specific association with diabetes development. Further research on the potential benefits of IL-1Ra measurements in identifying individuals at high risk for diabetes, who then could be targeted for specific treatment interventions, is warranted. It has been reported in the recent literature that IL-1Ra secreted from adipose tissue has beneficial effects on glucose homeostasis. Furthermore, treatment with recombinant human IL-1Ra has been shown to have a substantial therapeutic potential. The genetic results from the prospective analyses performed in this study remain inconclusive, but together with the cross-sectional analyses they suggest gender-specific effects of the IL-1 variants on the risk of diabetes. Larger studies with more extensive genotyping and resequencing may help to pinpoint the exact variants responsible and to further elucidate the biological mechanisms for the observed associations. This would improve our understanding of the pathways linking inflammation and obesity with glucose and insulin metabolism.

Innate Immune Recognition of RNA-virus infection in human macrophages

Innate immunity and host defence are rapidly evoked by structurally invariant molecular motifs common to microbial world, called pathogen associated molecular patterns (PAMPs). In addition to PAMPs, endogenous molecules released in response to inflammation and tissue damage, danger associated molecular patterns (DAMPs), are required for eliciting the response. The most important PAMPs of viruses are viral nucleic acids, their genome or its replication intermediates, whereas the identity and characteristics of virus infection-induced DAMPs are poorly defined. PAMPs and DAMPs engage a limited set of germ-line encoded pattern recognition receptors (PRRs) in immune and non-immune cells. Membrane-bound Toll-like receptors (TLRs), cytoplasmic retinoic acid inducible gene-I (RIG-I)-like receptors (RLRs) and nucleotide-binding oligomerization domain-like receptor (NLRs) are important PRRs involved in the recognition of the molecular signatures of viral infection, such as double-stranded ribonucleic acids (dsRNAs). Engagement of PRRs results in local and systemic innate immune responses which, when activated against viruses, evoke secretion of antiviral and pro-inflammatory cytokines, and programmed cell death i.e., apoptosis of the virus-infected cell. Macrophages are the central effector cells of innate immunity. They produce significant amounts of antiviral cytokines, called interferons (IFNs), and pro-inflammatory cytokines, such as interleukin (IL)-1β and IL-18. IL-1β and IL-18 are synthesized as inactive precursors, pro-IL-1β and pro-IL-18, that are processed by caspase-1 in a cytoplasmic multiprotein complex, called the inflammasome. After processing, these cytokines are biologically active and will be secreted. The signals and secretory routes that activate inflammasomes and the secretion of IL-1β and IL-18 during virus infections are poorly characterized. The main goal of this thesis was to characterize influenza A virus-induced innate immune responses and host-virus interactions in human primary macrophages during an infection. Methodologically, various techniques of cellular and molecular biology, as well as proteomic tools combined with bioinformatics, were utilized. Overall, the thesis provides interesting insights into inflammatory and antiviral innate immune responses, and has characterized host-virus interactions during influenza A virus-infection in human primary macrophages.

CowLog

We have developed CowLog, which is open-source software for recording behaviors from digital video and is easy to use and modify. CowLog tracks the time code from digital video files. The program is suitable for coding any digital video, but the authors have used it in animal research. The program has two main windows: a coding window, which is a graphical user interface used for choosing video files and defining output files that also has buttons for scoring behaviors, and a video window, which displays the video used for coding. The windows can be used in separate displays. The user types the key codes for the predefined behavioral categories, and CowLog transcribes their timing from the video time code to a data file. CowLog comes with an additional feature, an R package called Animal, for elementary analyses of the data files. With the analysis package, the user can calculate the frequencies, bout durations, and total durations of the coded behaviors and produce summary plots from the data.

CowLog

We have developed CowLog, which is open-source software for recording behaviors from digital video and is easy to use and modify. CowLog tracks the time code from digital video files. The program is suitable for coding any digital video, but the authors have used it in animal research. The program has two main windows: a coding window, which is a graphical user interface used for choosing video files and defining output files that also has buttons for scoring behaviors, and a video window, which displays the video used for coding. The windows can be used in separate displays. The user types the key codes for the predefined behavioral categories, and CowLog transcribes their timing from the video time code to a data file. CowLog comes with an additional feature, an R package called Animal, for elementary analyses of the data files. With the analysis package, the user can calculate the frequencies, bout durations, and total durations of the coded behaviors and produce summary plots from the data.