Electrocardiographic repolarization variables in detecting myocardial infarction and ischemic injury : From body surface potential mapping to a single lead

The aim of the studies was to improve the diagnostic capability of electrocardiography (ECG) in detecting myocardial ischemic injury with a future goal of an automatic screening and monitoring method for ischemic heart disease. The method of choice was body surface potential mapping (BSPM), containing numerous leads, with intention to find the optimal recording sites and optimal ECG variables for ischemia and myocardial infarction (MI) diagnostics. The studies included 144 patients with prior MI, 79 patients with evolving ischemia, 42 patients with left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH), and 84 healthy controls. Study I examined the depolarization wave in prior MI with respect to MI location. Studies II-V examined the depolarization and repolarization waves in prior MI detection with respect to the Minnesota code, Q-wave status, and study V also with respect to MI location. In study VI the depolarization and repolarization variables were examined in 79 patients in the face of evolving myocardial ischemia and ischemic injury. When analyzed from a single lead at any recording site the results revealed superiority of the repolarization variables over the depolarization variables and over the conventional 12-lead ECG methods, both in the detection of prior MI and evolving ischemic injury. The QT integral, covering both depolarization and repolarization, appeared indifferent to the Q-wave status, the time elapsed from MI, or the MI or ischemia location. In the face of evolving ischemic injury the performance of the QT integral was not hampered even by underlying LVH. The examined depolarization and repolarization variables were effective when recorded in a single site, in contrast to the conventional 12-lead ECG criteria. The inverse spatial correlation of the depolarization and depolarization waves in myocardial ischemia and injury could be reduced into the QT integral variable recorded in a single site on the left flank. In conclusion, the QT integral variable, detectable in a single lead, with optimal recording site on the left flank, was able to detect prior MI and evolving ischemic injury more effectively than the conventional ECG markers. The QT integral, in a single-lead or a small number of leads, offers potential for automated screening of ischemic heart disease, acute ischemia monitoring and therapeutic decision-guiding as well as risk stratification.

Matrix proteinases in lung injury in the preterm infant

During inflammation, excess production and release of matrix proteinases, including matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) and serine proteinases, may result in dysregulated extracellular proteolysis leading to development of tissue damage. Pulmonary inflammation may play an important role in the pathogenesis of lung injury in the preterm infant. The aims of this study were to evaluate involvement of MMPs and serine proteinase trypsin in acute and chronic lung injury in preterm infants and to study the role of these enzymes in acute lung injury by means of an animal model of hyperoxic lung injury. Molecular forms and levels of MMP-2, -8, and -9, and their specific inhibitor, tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinases (TIMP)-2, as well as trypsin were studied in tracheal aspirate fluid (TAF) samples collected from preterm infants with respiratory distress. Expression and distribution of trypsin-2 and proteinase-activated receptor 2 (PAR2) was examined in autopsy lung specimens from fetuses, from preterm infants with respiratory distress syndrome (RDS) or bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD), and from newborn infants without lung injury. We detected higher MMP-8 and trypsin-2 and lower TIMP-2 in TAF from preterm infants with more severe acute respiratory distress. Infants subsequently developing BPD had higher levels of MMP-8 and trypsin-2 early postnatally than did those who survived without this chronic lung injury. Immunohistochemically, trypsin-2 was mainly detectable in bronchial epithelium, but also in alveolar epithelium, and its expression was strongest in prolonged RDS. Since trypsin-2 is potent activator of PAR2, a G-protein coupled receptor involved in inflammation, we studied PAR2 expression in the lung. PAR2 co-localized with trypsin-2 in bronchoalveolar epithelium and its expression was significantly higher in bronchoalveolar epithelium in preterm infants with prolonged RDS than in newborn controls. In the experimental study, rats were exposed to >95% oxygen for 24, 48, and 60 hours, or room air. At 48 hours of hyperoxia, MMP-8 and trypsin levels sharply increased in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid, and expression of trypsin appeared in alveolar epithelium, and MMP-8 predominantly in macrophages. In conclusion, high pulmonary MMP-8 and trypsin-2 early postnatally are associated with severity of acute lung injury and subsequent development of BPD in preterm infants. In the injured preterm lung, trypsin-2 co-localizes with PAR2 in bronchoalveolar epithelium, suggesting that PAR2 activated by high levels of trypsin-2 is involved in lung inflammation associated with development of BPD. Marked increase in MMP-8 and trypsin early in the course of experimental hyperoxic lung injury suggests that these enzymes play a role in the pathogenesis of acute lung injury. Further exploration of the roles of trypsin and MMP-8 in lung injury may offer new targets for therapeutic intervention.

Ischemia-reperfusion injury in human liver transplantation : Mechanisms and effects on graft function

Liver transplantation is an established therapy for both acute and chronic liver failure. Despite excellent long-term outcome, graft dysfunction remains a problem affecting up to 15-30% of the recipients. The etiology of dysfunction is multifactorial, with ischemia-reperfusion injury regarded as one of the most important contributors. This thesis focuses on the inflammatory response during graft procurement and reperfusion in liver transplantation in adults. Activation of protein C was examined as a potential endogenous anti-inflammatory mechanism. The effects of inflammatory responses on graft function and outcome were investigated. Seventy adult patients undergoing liver transplantation in Helsinki University Central Hospital, and 50 multiorgan donors, were studied. Blood samples from the portal and the hepatic veins were drawn before graft procurement and at several time points during graft reperfusion to assess changes within the liver. Liver biopsies were taken before graft preservation and after reperfusion. Neutrophil and monocyte CD11b and L-selectin expression were analysed by flow cytometry. Plasma TNF-α, IL-6, IL-8, sICAM-1, and HMGB1 were determined by ELISA and Western-blotting. HMGB1 immunohistochemistry was performed on liver tissue specimens. Plasma protein C and activated protein C were determined by an enzyme-capture assay. Hepatic IL-8 release during graft procurement was associated with subsequent graft dysfunction, biliary in particular, in the recipient. Biliary marker levels increased only 5 7 days after transplantation. Thus, donor inflammatory response appears to influence recipient liver function with relatively long-lasting effects. Hepatic phagocyte activation and sequestration, with concomitant HMGB1 release, occurred during reperfusion. Neither phagocyte activation nor plasma cytokines correlated with postoperative graft function. Thus, activation of the inflammatory responses within the liver during reperfusion may be of minor clinical significance. However, HMGB1 was released from hepatocytes and were also correlated with postoperative transaminase levels. Accordingly, HMGB1 appears to be a marker of hepatocellular injury.

Towards the Use of Radar Winds in Numerical Weather Prediction

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models provide the basis for weather forecasting by simulating the evolution of the atmospheric state. A good forecast requires that the initial state of the atmosphere is known accurately, and that the NWP model is a realistic representation of the atmosphere. Data assimilation methods are used to produce initial conditions for NWP models. The NWP model background field, typically a short-range forecast, is updated with observations in a statistically optimal way. The objective in this thesis has been to develope methods in order to allow data assimilation of Doppler radar radial wind observations. The work has been carried out in the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) 3-dimensional variational data assimilation framework. Observation modelling is a key element in exploiting indirect observations of the model variables. In the radar radial wind observation modelling, the vertical model wind profile is interpolated to the observation location, and the projection of the model wind vector on the radar pulse path is calculated. The vertical broadening of the radar pulse volume, and the bending of the radar pulse path due to atmospheric conditions are taken into account. Radar radial wind observations are modelled within observation errors which consist of instrumental, modelling, and representativeness errors. Systematic and random modelling errors can be minimized by accurate observation modelling. The impact of the random part of the instrumental and representativeness errors can be decreased by calculating spatial averages from the raw observations. Model experiments indicate that the spatial averaging clearly improves the fit of the radial wind observations to the model in terms of observation minus model background (OmB) standard deviation. Monitoring the quality of the observations is an important aspect, especially when a new observation type is introduced into a data assimilation system. Calculating the bias for radial wind observations in a conventional way can result in zero even in case there are systematic differences in the wind speed and/or direction. A bias estimation method designed for this observation type is introduced in the thesis. Doppler radar radial wind observation modelling, together with the bias estimation method, enables the exploitation of the radial wind observations also for NWP model validation. The one-month model experiments performed with the HIRLAM model versions differing only in a surface stress parameterization detail indicate that the use of radar wind observations in NWP model validation is very beneficial.

Exploiting ground-based measurements of the Global Positioning System for numerical weather prediction

Data assimilation provides an initial atmospheric state, called the analysis, for Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). This analysis consists of pressure, temperature, wind, and humidity on a three-dimensional NWP model grid. Data assimilation blends meteorological observations with the NWP model in a statistically optimal way. The objective of this thesis is to describe methodological development carried out in order to allow data assimilation of ground-based measurements of the Global Positioning System (GPS) into the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) NWP system. Geodetic processing produces observations of tropospheric delay. These observations can be processed either for vertical columns at each GPS receiver station, or for the individual propagation paths of the microwave signals. These alternative processing methods result in Zenith Total Delay (ZTD) and Slant Delay (SD) observations, respectively. ZTD and SD observations are of use in the analysis of atmospheric humidity. A method is introduced for estimation of the horizontal error covariance of ZTD observations. The method makes use of observation minus model background (OmB) sequences of ZTD and conventional observations. It is demonstrated that the ZTD observation error covariance is relatively large in station separations shorter than 200 km, but non-zero covariances also appear at considerably larger station separations. The relatively low density of radiosonde observing stations limits the ability of the proposed estimation method to resolve the shortest length-scales of error covariance. SD observations are shown to contain a statistically significant signal on the asymmetry of the atmospheric humidity field. However, the asymmetric component of SD is found to be nearly always smaller than the standard deviation of the SD observation error. SD observation modelling is described in detail, and other issues relating to SD data assimilation are also discussed. These include the determination of error statistics, the tuning of observation quality control and allowing the taking into account of local observation error correlation. The experiments made show that the data assimilation system is able to retrieve the asymmetric information content of hypothetical SD observations at a single receiver station. Moreover, the impact of real SD observations on humidity analysis is comparable to that of other observing systems.

On the behaviour of some physical parameterization methods in high-resolution numerical weather prediction models

Modern-day weather forecasting is highly dependent on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models as the main data source. The evolving state of the atmosphere with time can be numerically predicted by solving a set of hydrodynamic equations, if the initial state is known. However, such a modelling approach always contains approximations that by and large depend on the purpose of use and resolution of the models. Present-day NWP systems operate with horizontal model resolutions in the range from about 40 km to 10 km. Recently, the aim has been to reach operationally to scales of 1 4 km. This requires less approximations in the model equations, more complex treatment of physical processes and, furthermore, more computing power. This thesis concentrates on the physical parameterization methods used in high-resolution NWP models. The main emphasis is on the validation of the grid-size-dependent convection parameterization in the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) and on a comprehensive intercomparison of radiative-flux parameterizations. In addition, the problems related to wind prediction near the coastline are addressed with high-resolution meso-scale models. The grid-size-dependent convection parameterization is clearly beneficial for NWP models operating with a dense grid. Results show that the current convection scheme in HIRLAM is still applicable down to a 5.6 km grid size. However, with further improved model resolution, the tendency of the model to overestimate strong precipitation intensities increases in all the experiment runs. For the clear-sky longwave radiation parameterization, schemes used in NWP-models provide much better results in comparison with simple empirical schemes. On the other hand, for the shortwave part of the spectrum, the empirical schemes are more competitive for producing fairly accurate surface fluxes. Overall, even the complex radiation parameterization schemes used in NWP-models seem to be slightly too transparent for both long- and shortwave radiation in clear-sky conditions. For cloudy conditions, simple cloud correction functions are tested. In case of longwave radiation, the empirical cloud correction methods provide rather accurate results, whereas for shortwave radiation the benefit is only marginal. Idealised high-resolution two-dimensional meso-scale model experiments suggest that the reason for the observed formation of the afternoon low level jet (LLJ) over the Gulf of Finland is an inertial oscillation mechanism, when the large-scale flow is from the south-east or west directions. The LLJ is further enhanced by the sea-breeze circulation. A three-dimensional HIRLAM experiment, with a 7.7 km grid size, is able to generate a similar LLJ flow structure as suggested by the 2D-experiments and observations. It is also pointed out that improved model resolution does not necessary lead to better wind forecasts in the statistical sense. In nested systems, the quality of the large-scale host model is really important, especially if the inner meso-scale model domain is small.

Studies on orographic effects in a numerical weather prediction model

Numerical models, used for atmospheric research, weather prediction and climate simulation, describe the state of the atmosphere over the heterogeneous surface of the Earth. Several fundamental properties of atmospheric models depend on orography, i.e. on the average elevation of land over a model area. The higher is the models' resolution, the more the details of orography directly influence the simulated atmospheric processes. This sets new requirements for the accuracy of the model formulations with respect to the spatially varying orography. Orography is always averaged, representing the surface elevation within the horizontal resolution of the model. In order to remove the smallest scales and steepest slopes, the continuous spectrum of orography is normally filtered (truncated) even more, typically beyond a few gridlengths of the model. This means, that in the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, there will always be subgridscale orography effects, which cannot be explicitly resolved by numerical integration of the basic equations, but require parametrization. In the subgrid-scale, different physical processes contribute in different scales. The parametrized processes interact with the resolved-scale processes and with each other. This study contributes to building of a consistent, scale-dependent system of orography-related parametrizations for the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM). The system comprises schemes for handling the effects of mesoscale (MSO) and small-scale (SSO) orographic effects on the simulated flow and a scheme of orographic effects on the surface-level radiation fluxes. Representation of orography, scale-dependencies of the simulated processes and interactions between the parametrized and resolved processes are discussed. From the high-resolution digital elevation data, orographic parameters are derived for both momentum and radiation flux parametrizations. Tools for diagnostics and validation are developed and presented. The parametrization schemes applied, developed and validated in this study, are currently being implemented into the reference version of HIRLAM.

Essays on the Modeling and Prediction of Volatility and Higher Moments of Stock Returns (summary section only)

One of the most fundamental and widely accepted ideas in finance is that investors are compensated through higher returns for taking on non-diversifiable risk. Hence the quantification, modeling and prediction of risk have been, and still are one of the most prolific research areas in financial economics. It was recognized early on that there are predictable patterns in the variance of speculative prices. Later research has shown that there may also be systematic variation in the skewness and kurtosis of financial returns. Lacking in the literature so far, is an out-of-sample forecast evaluation of the potential benefits of these new more complicated models with time-varying higher moments. Such an evaluation is the topic of this dissertation. Essay 1 investigates the forecast performance of the GARCH (1,1) model when estimated with 9 different error distributions on Standard and Poor’s 500 Index Future returns. By utilizing the theory of realized variance to construct an appropriate ex post measure of variance from intra-day data it is shown that allowing for a leptokurtic error distribution leads to significant improvements in variance forecasts compared to using the normal distribution. This result holds for daily, weekly as well as monthly forecast horizons. It is also found that allowing for skewness and time variation in the higher moments of the distribution does not further improve forecasts. In Essay 2, by using 20 years of daily Standard and Poor 500 index returns, it is found that density forecasts are much improved by allowing for constant excess kurtosis but not improved by allowing for skewness. By allowing the kurtosis and skewness to be time varying the density forecasts are not further improved but on the contrary made slightly worse. In Essay 3 a new model incorporating conditional variance, skewness and kurtosis based on the Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution is proposed. The new model and two previously used NIG models are evaluated by their Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts on a long series of daily Standard and Poor’s 500 returns. The results show that only the new model produces satisfactory VaR forecasts for both 1% and 5% VaR Taken together the results of the thesis show that kurtosis appears not to exhibit predictable time variation, whereas there is found some predictability in the skewness. However, the dynamic properties of the skewness are not completely captured by any of the models.

Magnetic resonance imaging and ultrasonography in brachial plexus birth injury

Brachial plexus birth injury (BPBI) is caused by stretching, tearing or avulsion of the C5-C8 or Th1 nerve roots during delivery. Foetal-maternal disproportion is the main reason for BPBI. The goal of this study was to find out the incidence of posterior subluxation of the humeral head during first year of life in BPBI and optimal timing of the ultrasonographic screening of the glenohumeral joint. The glenohumeral congruity and posterior subluxation of the humeral head associated to muscle atrophy were assessed and surgical treatment of the shoulder girdle as well as muscle changes in elbow flexion contracture were evaluated. The prospective, population based part of the study included all neonates born in Helsinki area during years 2003-2006. Patients with BPBI sent to the Hospital for Children and Adolescents because of decreased external rotation, internal rotation contracture or deformation of the glenohumeral joint as well as patients with elbow flexion contracture were also included in this prospective study. The incidence of BPBI was calculated to be 3.1/1000 newborns in Helsinki area. About 80% of the patients with BPBI recover totally during the follow-up within the first year of life. Permanent plexus injury at the age of one year was noted in 20% of the patients (0.64/1000 newborns). Muscle imbalance resulted in sonographically detected posterior subluxation in one third of the patients with permanent BPBI. If muscle imbalance and posterior subluxation are left untreated bony deformities will develop. All patients with internal rotation contracture of the glenohumeral joint presented muscle atrophy of the rotator cuff muscles. Especially subscapular and infraspinous muscles were affected. A correlation was found particularly between greatest thickness of subscapular muscle and subluxation of the humeral head, degree of glenoid retroversion, as well as amount of internal rotation contracture. Supinator muscle atrophy was evident among all the studied patients with elbow flexion contracture. Brachial muscle pathology seemed to be an important factor for elbow flexion contracture in BPBI. Residual dysfunction of the upper extremity may require operative treatment such as tendon lengthening, tendon transfers, relocation of the humeral head or osteotomy of the humerus. Relocation of the humeral head improved the glenohumeral congruency among patients under 5 years of age. Functional improvement without remodeling of the glenohumeral joint was achieved by other reconstructive procedures. In conclusion: Shoulder screening by US should be done to all patients with permanent BPBI at the age of 3 and 6 months. Especially atrophy of the subscapular muscle correlates with glenohumeral deformity and posterior subluxation of the humeral head, which has not been reported in previous studies. Permanent muscle changes are the main reason for diminished range of motion of the elbow and forearm. Relocation of the humeral head, when needed, should be performed under the age of 5 years.

Kalman Filter Algorithm for Rating and Prediction in Basketball

The Thesis presents a state-space model for a basketball league and a Kalman filter algorithm for the estimation of the state of the league. In the state-space model, each of the basketball teams is associated with a rating that represents its strength compared to the other teams. The ratings are assumed to evolve in time following a stochastic process with independent Gaussian increments. The estimation of the team ratings is based on the observed game scores that are assumed to depend linearly on the true strengths of the teams and independent Gaussian noise. The team ratings are estimated using a recursive Kalman filter algorithm that produces least squares optimal estimates for the team strengths and predictions for the scores of the future games. Additionally, if the Gaussianity assumption holds, the predictions given by the Kalman filter maximize the likelihood of the observed scores. The team ratings allow probabilistic inference about the ranking of the teams and their relative strengths as well as about the teams’ winning probabilities in future games. The predictions about the winners of the games are correct 65-70% of the time. The team ratings explain 16% of the random variation observed in the game scores. Furthermore, the winning probabilities given by the model are concurrent with the observed scores. The state-space model includes four independent parameters that involve the variances of noise terms and the home court advantage observed in the scores. The Thesis presents the estimation of these parameters using the maximum likelihood method as well as using other techniques. The Thesis also gives various example analyses related to the American professional basketball league, i.e., National Basketball Association (NBA), and regular seasons played in year 2005 through 2010. Additionally, the season 2009-2010 is discussed in full detail, including the playoffs.

Methods and applications for improving parameter prediction models for stand structures in Finland

This thesis report attempts to improve the models for predicting forest stand structure for practical use, e.g. forest management planning (FMP) purposes in Finland. Comparisons were made between Weibull and Johnson s SB distribution and alternative regression estimation methods. Data used for preliminary studies was local but the final models were based on representative data. Models were validated mainly in terms of bias and RMSE in the main stand characteristics (e.g. volume) using independent data. The bivariate SBB distribution model was used to mimic realistic variations in tree dimensions by including within-diameter-class height variation. Using the traditional method, diameter distribution with the expected height resulted in reduced height variation, whereas the alternative bivariate method utilized the error-term of the height model. The lack of models for FMP was covered to some extent by the models for peatland and juvenile stands. The validation of these models showed that the more sophisticated regression estimation methods provided slightly improved accuracy. A flexible prediction and application for stand structure consisted of seemingly unrelated regression models for eight stand characteristics, the parameters of three optional distributions and Näslund s height curve. The cross-model covariance structure was used for linear prediction application, in which the expected values of the models were calibrated with the known stand characteristics. This provided a framework to validate the optional distributions and the optional set of stand characteristics. Height distribution is recommended for the earliest state of stands because of its continuous feature. From the mean height of about 4 m, Weibull dbh-frequency distribution is recommended in young stands if the input variables consist of arithmetic stand characteristics. In advanced stands, basal area-dbh distribution models are recommended. Näslund s height curve proved useful. Some efficient transformations of stand characteristics are introduced, e.g. the shape index, which combined the basal area, the stem number and the median diameter. Shape index enabled SB model for peatland stands to detect large variation in stand densities. This model also demonstrated reasonable behaviour for stands in mineral soils.

Functional outcome and health-related quality of life after traumatic brain injury in the framework of the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF)

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) affects people of all ages and is a cause of long-term disability. In recent years, the epidemiological patterns of TBI have been changing. TBI is a heterogeneous disorder with different forms of presentation and highly individual outcome regarding functioning and health-related quality of life (HRQoL). The meaning of disability differs from person to person based on the individual s personality, value system, past experience, and the purpose he or she sees in life. Understanding of all these viewpoints is needed in comprehensive rehabilitation. This study examines the epidemiology of TBI in Finland as well as functioning and HRQoL after TBI, and compares the subjective and objective assessments of outcome. The frame of reference is the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF). The subjects of Study I represent the population of Finnish TBI patients who experienced their first TBI between 1991 and 2005. The 55 Finnish subjects of Studies II and IV participated in the first wave of the international Quality of life after brain injury (QOLIBRI) validation study. The 795 subjects from six language areas of Study III formed the second wave of the QOLIBRI validation study. The average annual incidence of Finnish hospitalised TBI patients during the years 1991-2005 was 101:100 000 in patients who had TBI as the primary diagnosis and did not have a previous TBI in their medical history. Males (59.2%) were at considerably higher risk of getting a TBI than females. The most common external cause of the injury was falls in all age groups. The number of TBI patients ≥ 70 years of age increased by 59.4% while the number of inhabitants older than 70 years increased by 30.3% in the population of Finland during the same time period. The functioning of a sample of 55 persons with TBI was assessed by extracting information from the patients medical documents using the ICF checklist. The most common problems were found in the ICF components of Body Functions (b) and Activities and Participation (d). HRQoL was assessed with the QOLIBRI which showed the highest level of satisfaction on the Emotions, Physical Problems and Daily Life and Autonomy scales. The highest scores were obtained by the youngest participants and participants living independently without the help of other people, and by people who were working. The relationship between the functional outcome and HRQoL was not straightforward. The procedure of linking the QOLIBRI and the GOSE to the ICF showed that these two outcome measures cover the relevant domains of TBI patients functioning. The QOLIBRI provides the patients subjective view, while the GOSE summarises the objective elements of functioning. Our study indicates that there are certain domains of functioning that are not traditionally sufficiently documented but are important for the HRQoL of persons with TBI. This was the finding especially in the domains of interpersonal relationships, social and leisure activities, self, and the environment. Rehabilitation aims to optimize functioning and to minimize the experience of disability among people with health conditions, and it needs to be based on a comprehensive understanding of human functioning. As an integrative model, the ICF may serve as a frame of reference in achieving such an understanding.