Early detection of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Chinese and Indian adult population

Objectives of this study were to determine secular trends of diabetes prevalence in China and develop simple risk assessment algorithms for screening individuals with high-risk for diabetes or with undiagnosed diabetes in Chinese and Indian adults. Two consecutive population based surveys in Chinese and a prospective study in Mauritian Indians were involved in this study. The Chinese surveys were conducted in randomly selected populations aged 20-74 years in 2001-2002 (n=14 592) and 35-74 years in 2006 (n=4416). A two-step screening strategy using fasting capillary plasma glucose (FCG) as first-line screening test followed by standard 2-hour 75g oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs) was applied to 12 436 individuals in 2001, while OGTTs were administrated to all participants together with FCG in 2006 and to 2156 subjects in 2002. In Mauritius, two consecutive population based surveys were conducted in Mauritian Indians aged 20-65 years in 1987 and 1992; 3094 Indians (1141 men), who were not diagnosed as diabetes at baseline, were reexamined with OGTTs in 1992 and/or 1998. Diabetes and pre-diabetes was defined following 2006 World Health Organization/ International Diabetes Federation Criteria. Age-standardized, as well as age- and sex-specific, prevalence of diabetes and pre-diabetes in adult Chinese was significantly increased from 12.2% and 15.4% in 2001 to 16.0% and 21.2% in 2006, respectively. A simple Chinese diabetes risk score was developed based on the data of Chinese survey 2001-2002 and validated in the population of survey 2006. The risk scores based on β coefficients derived from the final Logistic regression model ranged from 3 – 32. When the score was applied to the population of survey 2006, the area under operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the score for screening undiagnosed diabetes was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.65-0.70), which was lower than the AUC of FCG (0.76 [0.74-0.79]), but similar to that of HbA1c (0.68 [0.65-0.71]). At a cut-off point of 14, the sensitivity and specificity of the risk score in screening undiagnosed diabetes was 0.84 (0.81-0.88) and 0.40 (0.38-0.41). In Mauritian Indian, body mass index (BMI), waist girth, family history of diabetes (FH), and glucose was confirmed to be independent risk predictors for developing diabetes. Predicted probabilities for developing diabetes derived from a simple Cox regression model fitted with sex, FH, BMI and waist girth ranged from 0.05 to 0.64 in men and 0.03 to 0.49 in women. To predict the onset of diabetes, the AUC of the predicted probabilities was 0.62 (95% CI, 0.56-0.68) in men and 0.64(0.59-0.69) in women. At a cut-off point of 0.12, the sensitivity and specificity was 0.72(0.71-0.74) and 0.47(0.45-0.49) in men; and 0.77(0.75-0.78) and 0.50(0.48-0.52) in women, respectively. In conclusion, there was a rapid increase in prevalence of diabetes in Chinese adults from 2001 to 2006. The simple risk assessment algorithms based on age, obesity and family history of diabetes showed a moderate discrimination of diabetes from non-diabetes, which may be used as first line screening tool for diabetes and pre-diabetes, and for health promotion purpose in Chinese and Indians.

Mammographic mass-screening and future breast cancer burden in Finland

A population-based early detection program for breast cancer has been in progress in Finland since 1987. According to regulations during the study period 1987-2001, free of charge mammography screening was offered every second year to women aged 50-59 years. Recently, the screening service was decided to be extended to age group 50-69. However, the scope of the program is still frequently discussed in public and information about potential impacts of mass-screening practice changes on future breast cancer burden is required. The aim of this doctoral thesis is to present methodologies for taking into account the mass-screening invitation information in breast cancer burden predictions, and to present alternative breast cancer incidence and mortality predictions up to 2012 based on scenarios of the future screening policy. The focus of this work is not on assessing the absolute efficacy but the effectiveness of mass-screening, and, by utilizing the data on invitations, on showing the estimated impacts of changes in an existing screening program on the short-term predictions. The breast cancer mortality predictions are calculated using a model that combines incidence, cause-specific and other cause survival on individual level. The screening invitation data are incorporated into modeling of breast cancer incidence and survival by dividing the program into separate components (first and subsequent rounds and years within them, breaks, and post screening period) and defining a variable that gives the component of the screening program. The incidence is modeled using a Poisson regression approach and the breast cancer survival by applying a parametric mixture cure model, where the patient population is allowed to be a combination of cured and uncured patients. The patients risk to die from other causes than breast cancer is allowed to differ from that of a corresponding general population group and to depend on age and follow-up time. As a result, the effects of separate components of the screening program on incidence, proportion of cured and the survival of the uncured are quantified. According to the predictions, the impacts of policy changes, like extending the program from age group 50-59 to 50-69, are clearly visible on incidence while the effects on mortality in age group 40-74 are minor. Extending the screening service would increase the incidence of localized breast cancers but decrease the rates of non-localized breast cancer. There were no major differences between mortality predictions yielded by alternative future scenarios of the screening policy: Any policy change would have at the most a 3.0% reduction on overall breast cancer mortality compared to continuing the current practice in the near future.

Noninvasive biomarkers for early smoking related lung disease

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a slowly progressive disease characterized by airway inflammation and largely irreversible airflow limitation. One major risk factor for COPD is cigarette smoking. Since the inflammatory process starts many years prior to the onset of clinical symptoms and still continues after smoking cessation, there is an urgent need to find simple non-invasive biomarkers that can be used in the early diagnosis of COPD and which could help in predicting the disease progression. The first aim of the present study was to evaluate the involvement of different oxidative/nitrosative stress markers, matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) and their tissue inhibitor-1 (TIMP-1) in smokers and in COPD. Elevated numbers of inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS), nitrotyrosine, myeloperoxidase (MPO) and 4-hydroxy-2-nonenal (4-HNE) positive cells and increased levels of 8-isoprostane and lactoferrin were found in sputum of non-symptomatic smokers compared to non-smokers, and especially in subjects with stable mild to moderate COPD, and they correlated with the severity of airway obstruction. This suggests that an increased oxidant burden exists already in the airways of smokers with normal lung function values. However, none of these markers could differentiate healthy smokers from symptomatic smokers with normal lung function values i.e. those individuals who are at risk of developing COPD. In contrast what is known about asthma exhaled nitric oxide (FENO) was lower in smokers than in non-smokers, the reduced FENO value was significantly associated with neutrophilic inflammation and the elevated oxidant burden (positive cells for iNOS, nitrotyrosine and MPO). The levels of sputum MMP-8 and plasma MMP-12 appeared to differentiate subjects who have a risk for COPD development but these finding require further investigations. The levels of all studied MMPs correlated with the numbers of neutrophils, and MMP-8 and MMP-9 with markers of neutrophil activation (MPO, lactoferrin) suggesting that especially neutrophil derived oxidants may stimulate the tissue destructive MMPs already in lungs of smokers who are not yet experiencing any airflow limitation. When investigating the role of neutrophil proteases (neutrophil elastase, MMP-8, MMP-9) during COPD exacerbation and its recovery period, we found that levels of all these proteases were increased in sputum of patients with COPD exacerbation as compared to stable COPD and controls, and decreased during the one-month recovery period, giving evidence for a role of these enzymes in COPD exacerbations. In the last study, the effects of subject`s age and smoking habits were evaluated on the plasma levels of surfactant protein A (SP-A), SP-D, MMP-9 and TIMP-1. Long-term smoking increased the levels of all of these proteins. SP-A most clearly correlated with age, pack years and lung function decline (FEV1/FVC), and based on the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, SP-A was the best marker for discriminating subjects with COPD from controls. In conclusion, these findings support the hypothesis that especially neutrophil derived oxidants may activate MMPs and induce an active remodeling process already in the lungs of smokers with normal lung function values. The marked increase of sputum levels of neutrophil proteases in smokers, stable COPD and/or during its exacerbations suggest that these enzymes play a role in the development and progression of COPD. Based on the comparison of various biomarkers, SP-A can be proposed to serve as sensitive biomarker in COPD development.