Modelling and Forecasting Property Rents and Returns (summary section only)

Recently, focus of real estate investment has expanded from the building-specific level to the aggregate portfolio level. The portfolio perspective requires investment analysis for real estate which is comparable with that of other asset classes, such as stocks and bonds. Thus, despite its distinctive features, such as heterogeneity, high unit value, illiquidity and the use of valuations to measure performance, real estate should not be considered in isolation. This means that techniques which are widely used for other assets classes can also be applied to real estate. An important part of investment strategies which support decisions on multi-asset portfolios is identifying the fundamentals of movements in property rents and returns, and predicting them on the basis of these fundamentals. The main objective of this thesis is to find the key drivers and the best methods for modelling and forecasting property rents and returns in markets which have experienced structural changes. The Finnish property market, which is a small European market with structural changes and limited property data, is used as a case study. The findings in the thesis show that is it possible to use modern econometric tools for modelling and forecasting property markets. The thesis consists of an introduction part and four essays. Essays 1 and 3 model Helsinki office rents and returns, and assess the suitability of alternative techniques for forecasting these series. Simple time series techniques are able to account for structural changes in the way markets operate, and thus provide the best forecasting tool. Theory-based econometric models, in particular error correction models, which are constrained by long-run information, are better for explaining past movements in rents and returns than for predicting their future movements. Essay 2 proceeds by examining the key drivers of rent movements for several property types in a number of Finnish property markets. The essay shows that commercial rents in local markets can be modelled using national macroeconomic variables and a panel approach. Finally, Essay 4 investigates whether forecasting models can be improved by accounting for asymmetric responses of office returns to the business cycle. The essay finds that the forecast performance of time series models can be improved by introducing asymmetries, and the improvement is sufficient to justify the extra computational time and effort associated with the application of these techniques.

Corporate Funding on the European Debt Capital Market

The integrated European debt capital market has undoubtedly broadened the possibilities for companies to access funding from the public and challenged investors to cope with an ever increasing complexity of its market participants. Well into the Euro-era, it is clear that the unified market has created potential for all involved parties, where investment opportunities are able to meet a supply of funds from a broad geographical area now summoned under a single currency. Europe’s traditionally heavy dependency on bank lending as a source of debt capital has thus been easing as corporate residents are able to tap into a deep and liquid capital market to satisfy their funding needs. As national barriers eroded with the inauguration of the Euro and interest rates for the EMU-members converged towards over-all lower yields, a new source of debt capital emerged to the vast majority of corporate residents under the new currency and gave an alternative to the traditionally more maturity-restricted bank debt. With increased sophistication came also an improved knowledge and understanding of the market and its participants. Further, investors became more willing to bear credit risk, which opened the market for firms of ever lower creditworthiness. In the process, the market as a whole saw a change in the profile of issuers, as non-financial firms increasingly sought their funding directly from the bond market. This thesis consists of three separate empirical studies on how corporates fund themselves on the European debt capital markets. The analysis focuses on a firm’s access to and behaviour on the capital market, subsequent the decision to raise capital through the issuance of arm’s length debt on the bond market. The specific areas considered are contributing to our knowledge in the fields of corporate finance and financial markets by considering explicitly firms’ primary market activities within the new market area. The first essay explores how reputation of an issuer affects its debt issuance. Essay two examines the choice of interest rate exposure on newly issued debt and the third and final essay explores pricing anomalies on corporate debt issues.

Relationship Drivers in Provider - Consumer Relationships. Empirical Studies of Customer Loyalty Programs (första upplagan slutsåld / first edition sold out, 'print on demand' 60 €)

The study addressed a phenomenon that has become common marketing practice, customer loyalty programs. Although a common type of consumer relationship, there is limited knowledge of its nature. The purpose of the study was to create structured understanding of the nature of customer relationships from both the provider’s and the consumer’s viewpoints by studying relationship drivers and proposing the concept of relational motivation as a provider of a common framework for the analysis of these views. The theoretical exploration focused on reasons for engaging in customer relationships for both the consumer and the provider. The themes of buying behaviour, industrial and network marketing and relationship marketing, as well as the concepts of a customer relationship, customer loyalty, relationship conditions, relational benefits, bonds and commitment were explored and combined in a new way. Concepts from the study of business-to-business relationships were brought over and their power in explaining the nature of consumer relationships examined. The study provided a comprehensive picture of loyalty programs, which is an important contribution to the academic as well as the managerial discussions. The consumer study provided deep insights into the nature of customer relationships. The study provides a new frame of reference to support the existing concepts of loyalty and commitment with the introduction of the relationship driver and relational motivation concepts. The result is a novel view of the nature of customer relationships that creates new understanding of the forces leading to loyal behaviour and commitment. The study concludes with managerial implications.

Keskeytyksiä elämässä : Naisten toimijuudet aborttikertomuksissa

The present study focuses on the question of agency in the narratives of women who have experienced an abortion. The study scrutinizes agency by analyzing narratives and their context, that is, how narratives are entwined with cultural discourses and societal practices. The study thus addresses also the wider framework within which experiences and actions can be constructed in abortion narratives in the contemporary Finnish society. The women who wrote their stories or were interviewed were of different ages and had different social and religious backgrounds. Many variations of agency were found when abortion experiences were analyzed through the women s embodied and historically specific accounts. Independent and rational choices are entwined with emotions and choices made together with other people. Intimate relationships with family and friends have an important role in the choices regarding abortion. These relationships do not, however, simply belong in the private sphere but reflect the wider socio-cultural meanings of social bonds and family ties. Women s agency with regard to abortion is also constructed in encounters with the medical profession and within the wider framework of abortion legislation. The Finnish legislation grants women an abortion within certain parameters but not solely on the basis of a woman s wish to have an abortion. The data consists primarily of written narratives and interviews. All together 39 women shared their experiences with the researcher. The analysis focuses on decision-making regarding abortion, depictions of freedom and responsibility, emotions around abortion and expressions of values and religious views. The links between the women's experiences and the wider socio-cultural norms and institutions are analyzed through materials consisting of public debate on abortion in the media, ethical statements as well as literature and legislation on abortion. The analysis sheds light on the tensions apparent in the women's narratives between the legal status of abortion and more traditional views on abortion. The study demonstrates that the freedom linked to abortion is not solely to do with the right to have an abortion but also how abortion can be experienced, understood and where one can talk about the experience afterwards. The analysis reveals that Christian values shape women's experiences but that there are also new religious ways to deal with the ethical considerations brought about by abortion. Annually over 10 000 Finnish women experience an abortion, which is a situation involving ethical considerations. The study provides a nuanced account of the ways in which one can think and act when going through an abortion.

Discovery of oxidative enzymes for food engineering : Tyrosinase and sulfhydryl oxidase

Enzymes offer many advantages in industrial processes, such as high specificity, mild treatment conditions and low energy requirements. Therefore, the industry has exploited them in many sectors including food processing. Enzymes can modify food properties by acting on small molecules or on polymers such as carbohydrates or proteins. Crosslinking enzymes such as tyrosinases and sulfhydryl oxidases catalyse the formation of novel covalent bonds between specific residues in proteins and/or peptides, thus forming or modifying the protein network of food. In this study, novel secreted fungal proteins with sequence features typical of tyrosinases and sulfhydryl oxidases were iden-tified through a genome mining study. Representatives of both of these enzyme families were selected for heterologous produc-tion in the filamentous fungus Trichoderma reesei and biochemical characterisation. Firstly, a novel family of putative tyrosinases carrying a shorter sequence than the previously characterised tyrosinases was discovered. These proteins lacked the whole linker and C-terminal domain that possibly play a role in cofactor incorporation, folding or protein activity. One of these proteins, AoCO4 from Aspergillus oryzae, was produced in T. reesei with a production level of about 1.5 g/l. The enzyme AoCO4 was correctly folded and bound the copper cofactors with a type-3 copper centre. However, the enzyme had only a low level of activity with the phenolic substrates tested. Highest activity was obtained with 4-tert-butylcatechol. Since tyrosine was not a substrate for AoCO4, the enzyme was classified as catechol oxidase. Secondly, the genome analysis for secreted proteins with sequence features typical of flavin-dependent sulfhydryl oxidases pinpointed two previously uncharacterised proteins AoSOX1 and AoSOX2 from A. oryzae. These two novel sulfhydryl oxidases were produced in T. reesei with production levels of 70 and 180 mg/l, respectively, in shake flask cultivations. AoSOX1 and AoSOX2 were FAD-dependent enzymes with a dimeric tertiary structure and they both showed activity on small sulfhydryl compounds such as glutathione and dithiothreitol, and were drastically inhibited by zinc sulphate. AoSOX2 showed good stabil-ity to thermal and chemical denaturation, being superior to AoSOX1 in this respect. Thirdly, the suitability of AoSOX1 as a possible baking improver was elucidated. The effect of AoSOX1, alone and in combi-nation with the widely used improver ascorbic acid was tested on yeasted wheat dough, both fresh and frozen, and on fresh water-flour dough. In all cases, AoSOX1 had no effect on the fermentation properties of fresh yeasted dough. AoSOX1 nega-tively affected the fermentation properties of frozen doughs and accelerated the damaging effects of the frozen storage, i.e. giving a softer dough with poorer gas retention abilities than the control. In combination with ascorbic acid, AoSOX1 gave harder doughs. In accordance, rheological studies in yeast-free dough showed that the presence of only AoSOX1 resulted in weaker and more extensible dough whereas a dough with opposite properties was obtained if ascorbic acid was also used. Doughs containing ascorbic acid and increasing amounts of AoSOX1 were harder in a dose-dependent manner. Sulfhydryl oxidase AoSOX1 had an enhancing effect on the dough hardening mechanism of ascorbic acid. This was ascribed mainly to the produc-tion of hydrogen peroxide in the SOX reaction which is able to convert the ascorbic acid to the actual improver dehydroascorbic acid. In addition, AoSOX1 could possibly oxidise the free glutathione in the dough and thus prevent the loss of dough strength caused by the spontaneous reduction of the disulfide bonds constituting the dough protein network. Sulfhydryl oxidase AoSOX1 is therefore able to enhance the action of ascorbic acid in wheat dough and could potentially be applied in wheat dough baking.

“Aivan sama vaikkei ne olis edes pelannut” – Jalkapallo elämyskulutuksen kohteena

Tutkielmassa tarkastellaan jalkapallon seuraamista elämyskuluttamisen näkökulmasta. Elämyskulutuksella tarkoitetaan tässä yhteydessä tapahtumia ja hetkiä, jolloin ihminen kokee tavallisuudesta poikkeavan ja mieleenpainuvan tunnetilan. Elämyksiä tarjoavat palvelut ovat lisänneet jatkuvasti suosiotaan, kun arjessa rationaalisuus ylikorostuu ja sille halutaan vastapainoa. Aihetta taustoitetaan elämysyhteiskunnan, yhteisöllisyyden ja kuluttajaheimojen käsitteiden avulla. Erityishuomion saavat kulttuuritapahtumat elämystuotteina, penkkiurheilu yhteiskunnallisena ilmiönä sekä erilaiset jalkapalloon liittyvät kulutustavat. Tutkielma on luonteeltaan fenomenologis-etnografinen kuvaileva tutkimus. Tutkimusmenetelminä on käytetty osallistuvaa havainnointia ja haastatteluita. Tutkimusperinteen mukaisesti ilmiön ymmärtäminen, kuvaaminen ja kirjoittaminen ovat tärkeässä osassa. Havainnointiaineisto on kerätty kolmessa eri tapahtumassa seuraamalla katsojien käyttäytymistä ja tunnelman syntymiseen vaikuttavia tekijöitä. Haastateltavat on valittu harkinnanvaraisesti jalkapalloa aktiivisesti seuraavista henkilöistä ja menetelmänä on käytetty avoimia teemahaastatteluita. Urheilun vetovoima ajanvietteenä perustuu vahvojen tunteiden herättämiseen, joten penkkiurheilu on elämyskulutusta puhtaimmillaan. Urheilu elämystuotteena on oivallinen, sillä sen lukuisten kulutustapojen lisäksi tapahtumat muodostavat päättymättömän jatkumon. Myös oman aineistoni perusteella osoittautui, että menneiden tapahtumien avulla ankkuroidutaan yhteisöön ja tulevien tapahtumien avulla pidetään innostusta yllä. Pettymysten hetkelläkään koukusta ei haluta irti, sillä jokainen kokemus lisää tunteita omaa urheilulajia ja yhteisöä kohtaan. Urheilutapahtumissa katsojan elämys syntyy subjektiivisen kokemuksen kautta, mutta yhteisö luo elämyksen toteutumisen välttämättömät edellytykset. Jalkapalloyleisöön kuuluvissa henkilöissä yhdistyvät halu kuulua ryhmään ja olla samaan aikaan sen ulkopuolella. Peliä voidaan tarkkailla itsekseen ja keskittyneesti suuren joukon keskellä tai hurrata muiden mukana. Aineistoni perusteella jalkapallofanin innostus pulppuaa kahdesta lähteestä: yhteisöllisyydestä ja kiinnostuksesta lajiin. Yhteisöllisyyden tunne syntyy kuulumisesta globaaliin jalkapalloyhteisöön, oman suosikkijoukkueen kannattajiin ja samaa lajia seuraavien kaverien muodostamaan lähipiiriin. Urheilullinen puoli innostuksesta syntyy kiinnostuksesta jalkapalloa kohtaan lajina, aktiivisesti seuratuista säännöllisistä tapahtumista ja oman joukkueen kannattamisesta. Jalkapallon seuraajiin teoria jatkuvasti muuttuvista uusyhteisöistä pätee melko huonosti, sillä lajille ja seuralle ollaan hyvin uskollisia. Faneille on tärkeää sitoutua pieneen lähiyhteisöön, jonka kanssa heillä on yhteinen historia ja mahdollisuus jakaa kokemuksia keskustelemalla ja muistelemalla.

Polymeereillä stabiloitu amorfinen formulaatio

Nowadays growing number of new active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) have large molecular weight and are hydrophobic. The energy of their crystal lattice is bigger and polarity has decreased. This leads to weakened solubility and dissolution rate of the drug. These properties can be enhanced for example by amorphization. Amorphous form has the best dissolution rate in the solid state. In the amorphous form drug molecules are randomly arranged, so the energy required to dissolve molecules is lower compared to the crystalline counterpart. The disadvantage of amorphous form is that it is unstable. Amorphous form tends to crystallize. Stability of amorphous form can be enhanced by adding an adjuvant to drug product. Adjuvant is usually a polymer. Polymers prevent crystallization both by forming bonds with API molecules and by steric hindrance. The key thing in stabilizing amorphous form is good miscibility between API and polymer. They have to be mixed in a molecular level so that the polymer is able to prevent crystallization. The aim of this work was to study miscibility of drug and polymer and stability of their dispersion with different analytical methods. Amorphous dispersions were made by rotary evaporator and freeze dryer. Amorphicity was confirmed with X-ray powder diffraction (XRPD) right after preparation. Itraconazole and theophylline were the chosen molecules to be stabilized. Itraconazole was expected to be easier and theophylline more difficult to stabilize. Itraconazole was stabilized with HPMC and theophylline was stabilized with PVP. Miscibility was studied with XRPD and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). In addition it was studied with polarized light microscope if miscibility was possible to see visually. Dispersions were kept in stressed conditions and the crystallization was analyzed with XRPD. Stability was also examined with isothermal microcalorimetry (IMC). The dispersion of itraconazole and theophylline 40/60 (w/w) was completely miscible. It was proved by linear combination of XRPD results and single glass transition temperature in DSC. Homogenic well mixed film was observed with light microscope. Phase separation was observed with other compositions. Dispersions of theophylline and PVP mixed only partly. Stability of itraconazole dispersions were better than theophylline dispersions which were mixed poorer. So miscibility was important thing considering stability. The results from isothermal microcalorimetry were similar to results from conventional stability studies. Complementary analytical methods should be used when studying miscibility so that the results are more reliable. Light microscope is one method in addition to mostly used XRPD and DSC. Analyzing light microscope photos is quite subjective but it gives an idea of miscibility. Isothermal microcalorimetry can be one option for conventional stability studies. If right conditions can be made where the crystallization is not too fast, it may be possible to predict stability with isothermal microcalorimetry.

Sarveiskalvon permeabiliteetin ennustaminen QSPR-mallin avulla

QSPR-malli kuvaa kvantitatiivista riippuvuutta muuttujien ja biologisen ominaisuuden välillä. Näin ollen QSPR mallit ovat käyttökelpoisia lääkekehityksen apuvälineitä. Kirjallisessa osassa kerrotaan sarveiskalvon, suoliston ja veriaivoesteen permeabiliteetin malleista. Useimmin käytettyjä muuttujia ovat yhdisteen rasvaliukoisuus, polaarinen pinta-ala, vetysidosten muodostuminen ja varaus. Myös yhdisteen koko vaikuttaa läpäisevyyteen, vaikka tutkimuksissa onkin erilaista tietoa tämän merkittävyydestä. Malliin vaikuttaa myös muiden kuin mallissa mukana olevien muuttujien suuruusluokka esimerkkinä Lipinskin ‖rule of 5‖ luokittelu. Tässä luokittelussa yhdisteen ominaisuus ei saa ylittää tiettyjä raja-arvoja. Muussa tapauksessa sen imeytyminen suun kautta otettuna todennäköisesti vaarantuu. Lisäksi kirjallisessa osassa tutustuttiin kuljetinproteiineihin ja niiden toimintaan silmän sarveiskalvossa, suolistossa ja veriaivoesteessä. Nykyisin on kehitetty erilaisia QSAR-malleja kuljetinproteiineille ennustamaan mahdollisten substraatittien tai inhibiittorien vuorovaikutuksia kuljetinproteiinin kanssa. Kokeellisen osan tarkoitus oli rakentaa in silico -malli sarveiskalvon passiiviselle permeabiliteetille. Työssä tehtiin QSPR-malli 54 yhdisteen ACDLabs-ohjelmalla laskettujen muuttujien arvojen avulla. Permeabiliteettikertoimien arvot saatiin kirjallisuudesta kanin sarveiskalvon läpäisevyystutkimuksista. Lopullisen mallin muuttujina käytettiin oktanoli-vesijakaantumiskerrointa (logD) pH:ssa 7,4 ja vetysidosatomien kokonaismäärää. Yhtälö oli muotoa log10(permeabiliteettikerroin) = -3,96791 - 0,177842Htotal + 0,311963logD(pH7,4). R2-korrelaatiokerroin oli 0,77 ja Q2-korrelaatiokerroin oli 0,75. Lopullisen mallin hyvyyttä arvioitiin 15 yhdisteen ulkoisella testijoukolla, jolloin ennustettua permeabiliteettia verrattiin kokeelliseen permeabiliteettiin. QSPR-malli arvioitiin myös farmakokineettisen simulaation avulla. Simulaatiossa laskettiin seitsemän yhdisteen kammionestepitoisuudet in vivo vakaassa tilassa käyttäen simulaatioissa QSPR mallilla ennustettuja permeabiliteettikertoimia. Lisäksi laskettiin sarveiskalvon imeytymisen nopeusvakio (Kc) 13 yhdisteelle farmakokineettisen simulaation avulla ja verrattiin tätä lopullisella mallilla ennustettuun permeabiliteettiin. Tulosten perusteella saatiin tilastollisesti hyvä QSPR-malli kuvaamaan sarveiskalvon passiivista permeabiliteettia, jolloin tätä mallia voidaan käyttää lääkekehityksen alkuvaiheessa. QSPR-malli ennusti permeabiliteettikertoimet hyvin, mikä nähtiin vertaamalla mallilla ennustettuja arvoja kokeellisiin tuloksiin. Lisäksi yhdisteiden kammionestepitoisuudet voitiin simuloida käyttäen apuna QSPR-mallilla ennustettuja permeabiliteettikertoimien arvoja.

Tetrahydrofuran Clathrate Hydrate Formation

We report on the formation of tetrahydrofuran clathrate hydrate studied by x-ray Raman scattering measurements at the oxygen K edge. A comparison of x-ray Raman spectra measured from water-tetrahydrofuran mixtures and tetrahydrofuran hydrate at different temperatures supports stochastic hydrate formation models rather than models assuming hydrate precursors. This is confirmed by molecular dynamics simulations and density functional theory calculations of x-ray Raman spectra. In addition, changes in the spectra of tetrahydrofuran hydrate with temperatures close to the hydrate's dissociation temperature were observed and may be connected to changes in hydrate's local structure due to the formation of hydrogen bonds between guest and water molecules.

Towards Understanding Powder Behavior Via Simulation

The aim of this study was to investigate powder and tablet behavior at the level of mechanical interactions between single particles. Various aspects of powder packing, mixing, compression, and bond formation were examined with the aid of computer simulations. The packing and mixing simulations were based on spring forces interacting between particles. Packing and breakage simulations included systems in which permanent bonds were formed and broken between particles, based on their interaction strengths. During the process, a new simulation environment based on Newtonian mechanics and elementary interactions between the particles was created, and a new method for evaluating mixing was developed. Powder behavior is a complicated process, and many of its aspects are still unclear. Powders as a whole exhibit some aspects of solids and others of liquids. Therefore, their physics is far from clear. However, using relatively simple models based on particle-particle interaction, many powder properties could be replicated during this work. Simulated packing densities were similar to values reported in the literature. The method developed for describing powder mixing correlated well with previous methods. The new method can be applied to determine mixing in completely homogeneous materials, without dividing them into different components. As such, it can describe the efficiency of the mixing method, regardless of the powder's initial setup. The mixing efficiency at different vibrations was examined, and we found that certain combinations of amplitude, direction, and frequencies resulted in better mixing while using less energy. Simulations using exponential force potentials between particles were able to explain the elementary compression behavior of tablets, and create force distributions that were similar to the pressure distributions reported in the literature. Tablet-breaking simulations resulted in breaking strengths that were similar to measured tablet breaking strengths. In general, many aspects of powder behavior can be explained with mechanical interactions at the particle level, and single particle properties can be reliably linked to powder behavior with accurate simulations.

Sotalapsuus, äitiys ja isoäitiys : Kertomuksia sotalapsuuden varjossa

War children were sent away to shelter without their parents to other Nordic countries, mainly to Sweden. The phenomenon was remarkable. During the Second World War nearly 80,000 children were sent from their homes by trains or boats. These children travelled to foster homes where they were placed with new parents looking after them. After the conclusion of the peace, for some months or sometimes years later, orders were given to send the children back to their families in Finland. Returning back to Finland and to their biological parents and families was not always easy. Deep bonds between the children and their foster families were created and leaving caused grief to those small travellers once again. In some cases, distances were created in the relations between Mothers and their daughters. Many had forgotten their Finnish, and returning to school proved difficult. Some of the war children felt rootlessness, a result of being torn away from their family and culture. The aim of this study is to describe how former war children became mothers by themselves, and later on grandmothers. The study also explores how they describe the meaning of the war and their childhood in their own parenthood and what were their experiences of time in foster homes. Seven former war children and three daughters were interviewed for this study. Interviews were biographical. A narrative approach and thematic reading (by Riessman 2008) has guided the analysis of the texts. According to the results of this study, the importance of having your own home , family and security in childhood relationships is significant. Caring and having responsibility for disadvantaged others was important for former war children. What come from the detailed experiences of the 'war childhood' most of all were the difficulties they found on returning to Finland. Some of them had become very attached to their foster parents. There were varying degrees of language problems among the returnees. Some of the interviewees had completely forgotten their native language. Given that, starting the school at home was difficult. They also remembered continuous travelling.When asked on the outcome of their relationship with their biological mother, most interviewees were happy, with a few experiencing some distance in this relationship. Security and being available to protect their children were important in their own motherhood and grand motherhood. In difficult family situations like divorce, they wanted to give their time and support for helping with grandchildren. Another important aspect in family life is interaction between all its members. Talking things through in families and also in War Child Associations was highly valued. However, talking of war childhood had been silenced in some families. In conclusion, the experiences of former war children should take in consideration when difficult situations between parents and children or children s positions in war zones are resolved. War children also have a lot to give for further educational study.