Do Households Have Rational Expectations on Future Consumption? Evidence from the Finnish Consumer Survey

Ever since its initial introduction some fifty years ago, the rational expectations paradigm has dominated the way economic theory handles uncertainty. The main assertion made by John F. Muth (1961), seen by many as the father of the paradigm, is that expectations of rational economic agents should essentially be equal to the predictions of relevant economic theory, since rational agents should use information available to them in an optimal way. This assumption often has important consequences on the results and interpretations of the models where it is applied. Although the rational expectations assumption can be applied to virtually any economic theory, the focus in this thesis is on macroeconomic theories of consumption, especially the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis proposed by Robert E. Hall in 1978. The much-debated theory suggests that, assuming that agents have rational expectations on their future income, consumption decisions should follow a random walk, and the best forecast of future consumption level is the current consumption level. Then, changes in consumption are unforecastable. This thesis constructs an empirical test for the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis using Finnish Consumer Survey data as well as various Finnish macroeconomic data. The data sample covers the years 1995–2010. Consumer survey data may be interpreted to directly represent household expectations, which makes it an interesting tool for this particular test. The variable to be predicted is the growth of total household consumption expenditure. The main empirical result is that the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), a balance figure computed from the most important consumer survey responses, does have statistically significant predictive power over the change in total consumption expenditure. The history of consumption expenditure growth itself, however, fails to predict its own future values. This indicates that the CCI contains some information that the history of consumption decisions does not, and that the consumption decisions are not optimal in the theoretical context. However, when conditioned on various macroeconomic variables, the CCI loses its predictive ability. This finding suggests that the index is merely a (partial) summary of macroeconomic information, and does not contain any significant private information on consumption intentions of households not directly deductible from the objective economic variables. In conclusion, the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis is strongly rejected by the empirical results in this thesis. This result is in accordance with most earlier studies conducted on the topic.

Yhteiskuntaluokka ja maku

Thee thesis, which consists of four original articles and a summarizing chapter, discusses homology between social class and cultural taste. Cultural taste is defined as the choices made in different areas of culture (television, cinema, reading, music, visual arts, sports, dining out, and leisure pursuits). Taste choices manifest themselves as likes and dislikes but also in what a person does. Social class is observed through occupational status, level of education, income and subjective views on class. The central research question concerns the relationship between social class and consumption of culture. The study aims to clarify what kind of class related differences can be found in cultural consumption, but also how these differences are connected to other factors stratifying the society such as gender, age and mother tongue. The data that is being analyzed consists of the data gathered by the project Cultural Capital and Social Differentiation in Contemporary Finland: An International Comparison. Class identification and the relation of cultural divisions to the socioeconomic ones are being analyzed using a nationally represent-ative survey data (N = 1388). Individual interviews (N = 25) and twenty focus group interviews (N = 20) on cultural consumption are also being analyzed. The theoretical framework is built around Pierre Buourdieu s theory of distinction and its critique but also recent research that expands on bourdieusian theory. In the theory of distinction lifestyle is thought to be defined through the quantity and quality of different capitals (economic, cultural and social). Cultural tastes are therefore linked to class status through different capitals. The study shows that the majority of Finns can place themselves in the class scene. Moreover, class-related differences can be found in cultural consumption in empirical analyses. The main differences between classes can be seen in how different classes relate to cultural products but also in the number of leisure pursuits. Being well-off economically is connected to being well-off culturally. High status manifests as omnivorous cultural consumption. The central differences are built upon occupational class so that the working class is more passive than other class groups. Same difference can be found in relation to education and income level. Other im-portant divisive variable is age. Age group defines what is being consumed: the younger respondents are inclined to choose popular culture whereas the older age groups choices represent more traditional taste choices.

Monumenttikuvista elämyskuviin : Helsinki matkaesitteiden kuvituksessa 1895 - 2005

The purpose of this study is to define how Helsinki has been presented in the pictures of tourist brochures and how their illustration has changed over time. Attention is also paid to the values and meanings that the pictures mediate, as well as their historical and societal connections. The pictures are approached as representations selectively interpreting and illustrating the reality of Helsinki, while constructing mental images of it. An iconological framework structures the study. It proceeds from the description and classification of the physical features towards an analysis of time- and culture-specific meanings. The emergence of meanings and their historical and cultural underpinnings are examined from the perspectives of humanistic geography, semiotics and constructionism. In the analysis attention is paid to the discourses, myths and ideologies that underlie the representations. Information on the physical features of the pictures and their changes is collected with a content analysis. The classified data consists of 1377 photographs. These pictures are collected from 75 tourist brochures of Helsinki that have been published between 1895 and 2005. The deeper meanings of the pictures are studied qualitatively, by paying attention to the mental images that the content elements and visual effects evoke. Research studies, contemporary literature and the texts of the tourist brochures are utilised in the interpretation of the meanings. There has been a permanent core to objects of the pictures during the entire study period. It has consisted mainly of sights that are located close to the Senate and Market Squares. In addition, marine elements have been popular. The area of Helsinki represented in the brochures has extended from the Senate Square towards Töölö Bay. Pictures of monumental buildings and statues have been complemented with snapshots and portraits. In the beginning of the 20th century, brochures were mainly produced for the travelling, educated elite. The style of the pictures was declaratory and educative. They aimed at medating an objective image of the reality that prevailed in Helsinki. In practice, the pictures were connected to a patriotic ideology and the corresponding myth of Finnishness. In the second half of the 20th century the improvement of the standard of living led to a democratisation of consumers and an increase in the tourism demand. Local culture and the everyday life of "ordinary" people became popular themes in the pictures. A new welfare ideology manifested itself in the people of the local residential areas, for instance. The increase in the cultural diversity has led to the recognition of new target groups, expecially since the 1980s. The human figures in the pictures have started to function as objects of identification and a means of constructing mental images. A pronounced emphasis on experience and individuality in the illustration of the tourist brochures mirrors the post-modern change and a new ideology based on consumption. The construction and consumption of the pictures in the tourist brochures is governed by the conventions of representation and interpretaion that are typical of the genre of tourist brochures. The pictures emphasize the perceived positive characteristics of Helsinki and thus construct a skewed view of the reality. However, consumers can knowingly use the pictures as a means of dreaming and detaching themselves from their everyday reality.