Aerosol size distribution and its connection to cloud droplet number concentration

In order to predict the current state and future development of Earth s climate, detailed information on atmospheric aerosols and aerosol-cloud-interactions is required. Furthermore, these interactions need to be expressed in such a way that they can be represented in large-scale climate models. The largest uncertainties in the estimate of radiative forcing on the present day climate are related to the direct and indirect effects of aerosol. In this work aerosol properties were studied at Pallas and Utö in Finland, and at Mount Waliguan in Western China. Approximately two years of data from each site were analyzed. In addition to this, data from two intensive measurement campaigns at Pallas were used. The measurements at Mount Waliguan were the first long term aerosol particle number concentration and size distribution measurements conducted in this region. They revealed that the number concentration of aerosol particles at Mount Waliguan were much higher than those measured at similar altitudes in other parts of the world. The particles were concentrated in the Aitken size range indicating that they were produced within a couple of days prior to reaching the site, rather than being transported over thousands of kilometers. Aerosol partitioning between cloud droplets and cloud interstitial particles was studied at Pallas during the two measurement campaigns, First Pallas Cloud Experiment (First PaCE) and Second Pallas Cloud Experiment (Second PaCE). The method of using two differential mobility particle sizers (DMPS) to calculate the number concentration of activated particles was found to agree well with direct measurements of cloud droplet. Several parameters important in cloud droplet activation were found to depend strongly on the air mass history. The effects of these parameters partially cancelled out each other. Aerosol number-to-volume concentration ratio was studied at all three sites using data sets with long time-series. The ratio was found to vary more than in earlier studies, but less than either aerosol particle number concentration or volume concentration alone. Both air mass dependency and seasonal pattern were found at Pallas and Utö, but only seasonal pattern at Mount Waliguan. The number-to-volume concentration ratio was found to follow the seasonal temperature pattern well at all three sites. A new parameterization for partitioning between cloud droplets and cloud interstitial particles was developed. The parameterization uses aerosol particle number-to-volume concentration ratio and aerosol particle volume concentration as the only information on the aerosol number and size distribution. The new parameterization is computationally more efficient than the more detailed parameterizations currently in use, but the accuracy of the new parameterization was slightly lower. The new parameterization was also compared to directly observed cloud droplet number concentration data, and a good agreement was found.

Dynamical processes in the stratosphere and upper troposphere and their influence on the distribution of trace gases in the polar atmosphere

Transport plays an important role in the distribution of long-lived gases such as ozone and water vapour in the atmosphere. Understanding of observed variability in these gases as well as prediction of the future changes depends therefore on our knowledge of the relevant atmospheric dynamics. This dissertation studies certain dynamical processes in the stratosphere and upper troposphere which influence the distribution of ozone and water vapour in the atmosphere. The planetary waves that originate in the troposphere drive the stratospheric circulation. They influence both the meridional transport of substances as well as parameters of the polar vortices. In turn, temperatures inside the polar vortices influence abundance of the Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSC) and therefore the chemical ozone destruction. Wave forcing of the stratospheric circulation is not uniform during winter. The November-December averaged stratospheric eddy heat flux shows a significant anticorrelation with the January-February averaged eddy heat flux in the midlatitude stratosphere and troposphere. These intraseasonal variations are attributable to the internal stratospheric vacillations. In the period 1979-2002, the wave forcing exhibited a negative trend which was confined to the second half of winter only. In the period 1958-2002, area, strength and longevity of the Arctic polar vortices do not exhibit significant long-term changes while the area with temperatures lower than the threshold temperature for PSC formation shows statistically significant increase. However, the Arctic vortex parameters show significant decadal changes which are mirrored in the ozone variability. Monthly ozone tendencies in the Northern Hemisphere show significant correlations (|r|=0.7) with proxies of the stratospheric circulation. In the Antarctic, the springtime vortex in the lower stratosphere shows statistically significant trends in temperature, longevity and strength (but not in area) in the period 1979-2001. Analysis of the ozone and water vapour vertical distributions in the Arctic UTLS shows that layering below and above the tropopause is often associated with poleward Rossby wave-breaking. These observations together with calculations of cross-tropopause fluxes emphasize the importance of poleward Rossby wave breaking for the stratosphere-troposphere exchange in the Arctic.

Diagnostic Tests Based on Quantile Residuals for Nonlinear Time Series Models

This thesis studies quantile residuals and uses different methodologies to develop test statistics that are applicable in evaluating linear and nonlinear time series models based on continuous distributions. Models based on mixtures of distributions are of special interest because it turns out that for those models traditional residuals, often referred to as Pearson's residuals, are not appropriate. As such models have become more and more popular in practice, especially with financial time series data there is a need for reliable diagnostic tools that can be used to evaluate them. The aim of the thesis is to show how such diagnostic tools can be obtained and used in model evaluation. The quantile residuals considered here are defined in such a way that, when the model is correctly specified and its parameters are consistently estimated, they are approximately independent with standard normal distribution. All the tests derived in the thesis are pure significance type tests and are theoretically sound in that they properly take the uncertainty caused by parameter estimation into account. -- In Chapter 2 a general framework based on the likelihood function and smooth functions of univariate quantile residuals is derived that can be used to obtain misspecification tests for various purposes. Three easy-to-use tests aimed at detecting non-normality, autocorrelation, and conditional heteroscedasticity in quantile residuals are formulated. It also turns out that these tests can be interpreted as Lagrange Multiplier or score tests so that they are asymptotically optimal against local alternatives. Chapter 3 extends the concept of quantile residuals to multivariate models. The framework of Chapter 2 is generalized and tests aimed at detecting non-normality, serial correlation, and conditional heteroscedasticity in multivariate quantile residuals are derived based on it. Score test interpretations are obtained for the serial correlation and conditional heteroscedasticity tests and in a rather restricted special case for the normality test. In Chapter 4 the tests are constructed using the empirical distribution function of quantile residuals. So-called Khmaladze s martingale transformation is applied in order to eliminate the uncertainty caused by parameter estimation. Various test statistics are considered so that critical bounds for histogram type plots as well as Quantile-Quantile and Probability-Probability type plots of quantile residuals are obtained. Chapters 2, 3, and 4 contain simulations and empirical examples which illustrate the finite sample size and power properties of the derived tests and also how the tests and related graphical tools based on residuals are applied in practice.

Measurement of the kT Distribution of Particles in Jets Produced in pp̅ Collisions at √s=1.96 TeV

We present a measurement of the transverse momentum with respect to the jet axis (kt) of particles in jets produced in pp̅ collisions at √s=1.96  TeV. Results are obtained for charged particles in a cone of 0.5 radians around the jet axis in events with dijet invariant masses between 66 and 737  GeV/c2. The experimental data are compared to theoretical predictions obtained for fragmentation partons within the framework of resummed perturbative QCD using the modified leading log and next-to-modified leading log approximations. The comparison shows that trends in data are successfully described by the theoretical predictions, indicating that the perturbative QCD stage of jet fragmentation is dominant in shaping basic jet characteristics.

Measurement of the kT Distribution of Particles in Jets Produced in pp̅ Collisions at √s=1.96 TeV

We present a measurement of the transverse momentum with respect to the jet axis ($k_{T}$) of particles in jets produced in $p\bar p$ collisions at $\sqrt{s}=1.96$ TeV. Results are obtained for charged particles within a cone of opening angle 0.5 radians around the jet axis in events with dijet invariant masses between 66 and 737 GeV/c$^{2}$. The experimental data are compared to theoretical predictions obtained for fragmentation partons within the framework of resummed perturbative QCD using the modified leading log and next-to-modified leading log approximations. The comparison shows that trends in data are successfully described by the theoretical predictions, indicating that the perturbative QCD stage of jet fragmentation is dominant in shaping basic jet characteristics.

Essays on the Modeling and Prediction of Volatility and Higher Moments of Stock Returns (summary section only)

One of the most fundamental and widely accepted ideas in finance is that investors are compensated through higher returns for taking on non-diversifiable risk. Hence the quantification, modeling and prediction of risk have been, and still are one of the most prolific research areas in financial economics. It was recognized early on that there are predictable patterns in the variance of speculative prices. Later research has shown that there may also be systematic variation in the skewness and kurtosis of financial returns. Lacking in the literature so far, is an out-of-sample forecast evaluation of the potential benefits of these new more complicated models with time-varying higher moments. Such an evaluation is the topic of this dissertation. Essay 1 investigates the forecast performance of the GARCH (1,1) model when estimated with 9 different error distributions on Standard and Poor’s 500 Index Future returns. By utilizing the theory of realized variance to construct an appropriate ex post measure of variance from intra-day data it is shown that allowing for a leptokurtic error distribution leads to significant improvements in variance forecasts compared to using the normal distribution. This result holds for daily, weekly as well as monthly forecast horizons. It is also found that allowing for skewness and time variation in the higher moments of the distribution does not further improve forecasts. In Essay 2, by using 20 years of daily Standard and Poor 500 index returns, it is found that density forecasts are much improved by allowing for constant excess kurtosis but not improved by allowing for skewness. By allowing the kurtosis and skewness to be time varying the density forecasts are not further improved but on the contrary made slightly worse. In Essay 3 a new model incorporating conditional variance, skewness and kurtosis based on the Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution is proposed. The new model and two previously used NIG models are evaluated by their Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts on a long series of daily Standard and Poor’s 500 returns. The results show that only the new model produces satisfactory VaR forecasts for both 1% and 5% VaR Taken together the results of the thesis show that kurtosis appears not to exhibit predictable time variation, whereas there is found some predictability in the skewness. However, the dynamic properties of the skewness are not completely captured by any of the models.

Modeling Nonlinearities and Asymmetries in Asset Pricing

Financial time series tend to behave in a manner that is not directly drawn from a normal distribution. Asymmetries and nonlinearities are usually seen and these characteristics need to be taken into account. To make forecasts and predictions of future return and risk is rather complicated. The existing models for predicting risk are of help to a certain degree, but the complexity in financial time series data makes it difficult. The introduction of nonlinearities and asymmetries for the purpose of better models and forecasts regarding both mean and variance is supported by the essays in this dissertation. Linear and nonlinear models are consequently introduced in this dissertation. The advantages of nonlinear models are that they can take into account asymmetries. Asymmetric patterns usually mean that large negative returns appear more often than positive returns of the same magnitude. This goes hand in hand with the fact that negative returns are associated with higher risk than in the case where positive returns of the same magnitude are observed. The reason why these models are of high importance lies in the ability to make the best possible estimations and predictions of future returns and for predicting risk.

Power and Distribution Network Structure in the People's Republic of China - The Case of an Inland City in Transition

The aim of the current study is to examine the influence of the channel external environment on power, and the effect of power on the distribution network structure within the People’s Republic of China. Throughout the study a dual research process was applied. The theory was constructed by elaborating the main theoretical premises of the study, the channel power theories, the political economy framework and the distribution network structure, but these marketing channel concepts were expanded with other perspectives from other disciplines. The main method applied was a survey conducted among 164 Chinese retailers, complemented by interviews, photographs, observations and census data from the field. This multi-method approach enabled not only to validate and triangulate the quantitative results, but to uncover serendipitous findings as well. The theoretical contribution of the current study to the theory of marketing channels power is the different view it takes on power. First, earlier power studies have taken the producer perspective, whereas the current study also includes a distributor perspective to the discussion. Second, many power studies have dealt with strongly dependent relationships, whereas the current study examines loosely dependent relationships. Power is dependent on unequal distribution of resources rather than based on high dependency. The benefit of this view is in realising that power resources and power strategies are separate concepts. The empirical material of the current study confirmed that at least some resources were significantly related to power strategies. The study showed that the dimension resources composed of technology, know-how and knowledge, managerial freedom and reputation was significantly related to non-coercive power. Third, the notion of different outcomes of power is a contribution of this study to the channels power theory even though not confirmed by the empirical results. Fourth, it was proposed that channel external environment other than the resources would also contribute to the channel power. These propositions were partially supported thus providing only partial contribution to the channel power theory. Finally, power was equally distributed among the different types of actors. The findings from the qualitative data suggest that different types of retailers can be classified according to the meaning the actors put into their business. Some are more business oriented, for others retailing is the only way to earn a living. The findings also suggest that in some actors both retailing and wholesaling functions emerge, and this has implications for the marketing channels structure.