The decline of northern malaria and population dynamics of Plamodium vivax

Europe was declared malaria free in 1975. The disappearance of malaria has traditionally been attributed to numerous deliberate actions like vector control, the screening of houses, more efficient medication etc. Malaria, however, disappeared from many countries like Finland before any counter measures had even started. The aim of this thesis is to study the population ecology of P. vivax and its interaction with the human host and the vector. By finding the factors that attributed to the extinction of vivax malaria it might be possible to improve the modern strategy against P. vivax. The parasite was studied with data from Finland, which provides the longest time series (1749-2008) of malaria statistics in the world. The malaria vectors, Anopheles messeae and A. beklemishevi are still common species in the country. The eradication of vivax malaria is difficult because the parasite has a dormant stage that can cause a relapse long after a primary infection. It was now shown that P. vivax is able to detect the presence of a potential vector. A dormant stage is triggered even from a bite of an uninfected Anopheles mosquito. This optimizes the chances for the Plasmodium to reach a mosquito vector for sexual reproduction. The longevity of the dormant stage could be shown to be at least nine years. The parasite spends several years in its human host and the behaviour of the human carrier had a profound impact on the decline of the disease in Finland. Malaria spring epidemics could be explained by a previous warm summer. Neither annual nor summer mean temperature had any impact on the long term malaria trend. Malaria disappeared slowly from Finland without mosquito control. The sociological change from extended families to nuclear families led to decreased household size. The decreased household size correlated strongly with the decline of malaria. That led to an increased isolation of the subpopulations of P. vivax. Their habitat consisted of the bedrooms in which human carriers slept together with the overwintering vectors. The isolation of the parasite ultimately led to the extinction of vivax malaria. Metapopulation models adapted to local conditions should therefore be implemented as a tool for settlement planning and socio-economic development and become an integrated part of the fight against malaria.

Nitrogen dynamics and nitrogen use efficiency of spring cereals under Finnish growing conditions

Nitrogen (N) is one of the main inputs in cereal cultivation and as more than half of the arable land in Finland is used for cereal production, N has contributed substantially to agricultural pollution through fertilizer leaching and runoff. Based on this global phenomenon, the European Community has launched several directives to reduce agricultural emissions to the environment. Trough such measures, and by using economic incentives, it is expected that northern European agricultural practices will, in the future, include reduced N fertilizer application rates. Reduced use of N fertilizer is likely to decrease both production costs and pollution, but could also result in reduced yields and quality if crops experience temporary N deficiency. Therefore, more efficient N use in cereal production, to minimize pollution risks and maximize farmer income, represents a current challenge for agronomic research in the northern growing areas. The main objective of this study was to determine the differences in nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) among spring cereals grown in Finland. Additional aims were to characterize the multiple roles of NUE by analysing the extent of variation in NUE and its component traits among different cultivars, and to understand how other physiological traits, especially radiation use efficiency (RUE) and light interception, affect and interact with the main components of NUE and contribute to differences among cultivars. This study included cultivars of barley (Hordeum vulgare L.), oat (Avena sativa L.) and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). Field experiments were conducted between 2001 and 2004 at Jokioinen, in Finland. To determine differences in NUE among cultivars and gauge the achievements of plant breeding in NUE, 17-18 cultivars of each of the three cereal species released between 1909 and 2002 were studied. Responses to nitrogen of landraces, old cultivars and modern cultivars of each cereal species were evaluated under two N regimes (0 and 90 kg N ha-1). Results of the study revealed that modern wheat, oat and barley cultivars had similar NUE values under Finnish growing conditions and only results from a wider range of cultivars indicated that wheat cultivars could have lower NUE than the other species. There was a clear relationship between nitrogen uptake efficiency (UPE) and NUE in all species whereas nitrogen utilization efficiency (UTE) had a strong positive relationship with NUE only for oat. UTE was clearly lower in wheat than in other species. Other traits related to N translocation indicated that wheat also had a lower harvest index, nitrogen harvest index and nitrogen remobilisation efficiency and therefore its N translocation efficiency was confirmed to be very low. On the basis of these results there appears to be potential and also a need for improvement in NUE. These results may help understand the underlying physiological differences in NUE and could help to identify alternative production options, such as the different roles that species can play in crop rotations designed to meet the demands of modern agricultural practices.

Nitrogen dynamics of organic farming in a crop rotation based on red clover (Trifolium pratense) leys

In agricultural systems which rely on organic sources of nitrogen (N), of which the primary source is biological N fixation (BNF), it is extremely important to use N as efficiently as possible with minimal losses to the environment. The amount of N through BNF should be maximised and the availability of the residual N after legumes should be synchronised to the subsequent plant needs in the crop rotation. Six field experiments in three locations in Finland were conducted in 1994-2006 to determine the productivity and amount of BNF in red clover-grass leys of different ages. The residual effects of the leys for subsequent cereals as well as the N leaching risk were studied by field measurements and by simulation using the CoupModel. N use efficiency (NUE) and N balances were also calculated. The yields of red clover-grass leys were highest in the two-year-old leys (6 700 kg ha-1) under study, but the differences between 2- and 3-year old leys were not high in most cases. BNF (90 kg ha-1 in harvested biomass) correlated strongly with red clover dry matter yield, as the proportion of red clover N derived from the atmosphere (> 85%) was high in our conditions of organically farmed field with low soil mineral N. A red clover content of over 40% in dry matter is targeted to avoid negative N-balances and to gain N for the subsequent crop. Surprisingly, the leys had no significant effect on the yields and N uptake of the two subsequent cereals (winter rye or spring wheat, followed by spring oats). On the other hand, yield and C:N of leys, as well as BNF-N and total-N incorporated into the soil influenced on subsequent cereal yields. NUE of cereals from incorporated ley crop residues was rather high, varying from 30% to 80% (mean 48%). The mineral N content of soil in the profile of 0-90 cm was low, mainly 15-30 kg ha-1. Simulation of N dynamics by CoupModel functioned satisfactorily and is considered a useful tool to estimate N flows in cropping systems relying on organic N sources. Understanding the long-term influence of cultivation history and soil properties on N dynamics remains to be a challenge to further research.

Water-ethanol mixtures by molecular dynamics and x-ray Compton scattering

Water-ethanol mixtures are commonly used in industry and house holds. However, quite surprisingly their molecular-level structure is still not completely understood. In particular, there is evidence that the local intermolecular geometries depend significantly on the concentration. The aim of this study was to gain information on the molecular-level structures of water-ethanol mixtures by two computational methods. The methods are classical molecular dynamics (MD), where the movement of molecules can be studied, and x-ray Compton scattering, in which the scattering cross section is sensitive to the electron momentum density. Firstly, the water-ethanol mixtures were studied with MD simulations, with the mixture concentration ranging from 0 to 100%. For the simulations well-established force fields were used for the water and ethanol molecules (TIP4P and OPLS-AA, respectively). Moreover, two models were used for ethanol, rigid and non-rigid. In the rigid model the intramolecular bond lengths are fixed, whereas in the non-rigid model the lengths are determined by harmonic potentials. Secondly, mixtures with three different concentrations employing both ethanol models were studied by calculating the experimentally observable x-ray quantity, the Compton profile. In the MD simulations a slight underestimation in the density was observed as compared to experiment. Furthermore, a positive excess of hydrogen bonding with water molecules and a negative one with ethanol was quantified. Also, the mixture was found more structured when the ethanol concentration was higher. Negligible differences in the results were found between the two ethanol models. In contrast, in the Compton scattering results a notable difference between the ethanol models was observed. For the rigid model the Compton profiles were similar for all the concentrations, but for the non-rigid model they were distinct. This leads to two possibilities of how the mixing occurs. Either the mixing is similar in all concentrations (as suggested by the rigid model) or the mixing changes for different concentrations (as suggested by the non-rigid model). Either way, this study shows that the choice of the force field is essential in the microscopic structure formation in the MD simulations. When the sources of uncertainty in the calculated Compton profiles were analyzed, it was found that more statistics needs to be collected to reduce the statistical uncertainty in the final results. The obtained Compton scattering results can be considered somewhat preliminary, but clearly indicative of the behaviour of the water-ethanol mixtures when the force field is modified. The next step is to collect more statistics and compare the results with experimental data to decide which ethanol model describes the mixture better. This way, valuable information on the microscopic structure of water-ethanol mixtures can be found. In addition, information on the force fields in the MD simulations and on the ability of the MD simulations to reproduce the microscopic structure of binary liquids is obtained.

Chemical mass closure and source-specific composition of atmospheric particles

It has been known for decades that particles can cause adverse health effects as they are deposited within the respiratory system. Atmospheric aerosol particles influence climate by scattering solar radiation but aerosol particles act also as the nuclei around which cloud droplets form. The principal objectives of this thesis were to investigate the chemical composition and the sources of fine particles in different environments (traffic, urban background, remote) as well as during some specific air pollution situations. Quantifying the climate and health effects of atmospheric aerosols is not possible without detailed information of the aerosol chemical composition. Aerosol measurements were carried out at nine sites in six countries (Finland, Germany, Czech, Netherlands, Greece and Italy). Several different instruments were used in order to measure both the particulate matter (PM) mass and its chemical composition. In the off-line measurements the samples were collected first on a substrate or filter and gravimetric and chemical analysis were conducted in the laboratory. In the on-line measurements the sampling and analysis were either a combined procedure or performed successively within the same instrument. Results from the impactor samples were analyzed by the statistical methods. This thesis comprises also a work where a method for the determination carbonaceous matter size distribution by using a multistage impactor was developed. It was found that the chemistry of PM has usually strong spatial, temporal and size-dependent variability. In the Finnish sites most of the fine PM consisted of organic matter. However, in Greece sulfate dominated the fine PM and in Italy nitrate made the largest contribution to the fine PM. Regarding the size-dependent chemical composition, organic components were likely to be enriched in smaller particles than inorganic ions. Data analysis showed that organic carbon (OC) had four major sources in Helsinki. Secondary production was the major source in Helsinki during spring, summer and fall, whereas in winter biomass combustion dominated OC. The significant impact of biomass combustion on OC concentrations was also observed in the measurements performed in Central Europe. In this thesis aerosol samples were collected mainly by the conventional filter and impactor methods which suffered from the long integration time. However, by filter and impactor measurements chemical mass closure was achieved accurately, and a simple filter sampling was found to be useful in order to explain the sources of PM on the seasonal basis. The online instruments gave additional information related to the temporal variations of the sources and the atmospheric mixing conditions.

Eurasian large mammal dynamics in response to changing environments during the Late Neogene

Nisäkkäiden levinneisyyteen, niiden morfologisiin ja ekologisiin piirteisiin vaikuttavat ympäristön sekä lyhyet että pitkäkestoiset muutokset, etenkin ilmaston ja kasvillisuuden vaihtelut. Työssä tutkittiin nisäkkäiden sopeutumista ilmastonmuutoksiin Euraasiassa viimeisen 24 miljoonan vuoden aikana. Tutkimuksessa keskityttiin varsinkin viimeiseen kahteen miljoonaan vuoteen, jonka aikana ilmasto muuttui voimakkaasti ja ihmisen toiminta alkoi tulla merkittäväksi. Tämän takia on usein vaikea erottaa, kummasta em. seikasta jonkin nisäkäslajin sukupuutto tai häviäminen alueelta johtui. Aineistona käytettiin laajaa venäjänkielistä kirjallisuutta, josta löytyvät tiedot ovat kääntämättöminä jääneet aiemmin länsimaisen tutkimuksen ulkopuolelle. Työssä käytettiin myös NOW-tietokantaa, jossa on fossiilisten nisäkkäiden löytöpaikat sekä niiden iät.

Bayesian analysis of community dynamics

Elucidating the mechanisms responsible for the patterns of species abundance, diversity, and distribution within and across ecological systems is a fundamental research focus in ecology. Species abundance patterns are shaped in a convoluted way by interplays between inter-/intra-specific interactions, environmental forcing, demographic stochasticity, and dispersal. Comprehensive models and suitable inferential and computational tools for teasing out these different factors are quite limited, even though such tools are critically needed to guide the implementation of management and conservation strategies, the efficacy of which rests on a realistic evaluation of the underlying mechanisms. This is even more so in the prevailing context of concerns over climate change progress and its potential impacts on ecosystems. This thesis utilized the flexible hierarchical Bayesian modelling framework in combination with the computer intensive methods known as Markov chain Monte Carlo, to develop methodologies for identifying and evaluating the factors that control the structure and dynamics of ecological communities. These methodologies were used to analyze data from a range of taxa: macro-moths (Lepidoptera), fish, crustaceans, birds, and rodents. Environmental stochasticity emerged as the most important driver of community dynamics, followed by density dependent regulation; the influence of inter-specific interactions on community-level variances was broadly minor. This thesis contributes to the understanding of the mechanisms underlying the structure and dynamics of ecological communities, by showing directly that environmental fluctuations rather than inter-specific competition dominate the dynamics of several systems. This finding emphasizes the need to better understand how species are affected by the environment and acknowledge species differences in their responses to environmental heterogeneity, if we are to effectively model and predict their dynamics (e.g. for management and conservation purposes). The thesis also proposes a model-based approach to integrating the niche and neutral perspectives on community structure and dynamics, making it possible for the relative importance of each category of factors to be evaluated in light of field data.

Gene flow from transgenic plant populations: models and applications for risk assessment

The future use of genetically modified (GM) plants in food, feed and biomass production requires a careful consideration of possible risks related to the unintended spread of trangenes into new habitats. This may occur via introgression of the transgene to conventional genotypes, due to cross-pollination, and via the invasion of GM plants to new habitats. Assessment of possible environmental impacts of GM plants requires estimation of the level of gene flow from a GM population. Furthermore, management measures for reducing gene flow from GM populations are needed in order to prevent possible unwanted effects of transgenes on ecosystems. This work develops modeling tools for estimating gene flow from GM plant populations in boreal environments and for investigating the mechanisms of the gene flow process. To describe spatial dimensions of the gene flow, dispersal models are developed for the local and regional scale spread of pollen grains and seeds, with special emphasis on wind dispersal. This study provides tools for describing cross-pollination between GM and conventional populations and for estimating the levels of transgenic contamination of the conventional crops. For perennial populations, a modeling framework describing the dynamics of plants and genotypes is developed, in order to estimate the gene flow process over a sequence of years. The dispersal of airborne pollen and seeds cannot be easily controlled, and small amounts of these particles are likely to disperse over long distances. Wind dispersal processes are highly stochastic due to variation in atmospheric conditions, so that there may be considerable variation between individual dispersal patterns. This, in turn, is reflected to the large amount of variation in annual levels of cross-pollination between GM and conventional populations. Even though land-use practices have effects on the average levels of cross-pollination between GM and conventional fields, the level of transgenic contamination of a conventional crop remains highly stochastic. The demographic effects of a transgene have impacts on the establishment of trangenic plants amongst conventional genotypes of the same species. If the transgene gives a plant a considerable fitness advantage in comparison to conventional genotypes, the spread of transgenes to conventional population can be strongly increased. In such cases, dominance of the transgene considerably increases gene flow from GM to conventional populations, due to the enhanced fitness of heterozygous hybrids. The fitness of GM plants in conventional populations can be reduced by linking the selectively favoured primary transgene to a disfavoured mitigation transgene. Recombination between these transgenes is a major risk related to this technique, especially because it tends to take place amongst the conventional genotypes and thus promotes the establishment of invasive transgenic plants in conventional populations.

Dynamics of inflation expectations in the euro area

The present study examines empirically the inflation dynamics of the euro area. The focus of the analysis is on the role of expectations in the inflation process. In six articles we relax rationality assumption and proxy expectations directly using OECD forecasts or Consensus Economics survey data. In the first four articles we estimate alternative Phillips curve specifications and find evidence that inflation cannot instantaneously adjust to changes in expectations. A possible departure of expectations from rationality seems not to be powerful enough to totally explain the persistence of euro area inflation in the New Keynesian framework. When expectations are measured directly, the purely forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve is outperformed by the hybrid Phillips curve with an additional lagged inflation term and the New Classical Phillips curve with a lagged expectations term. The results suggest that the euro area inflation process has become more forward-looking in the recent years of low and stable inflation. Moreover, in low inflation countries, the inflation dynamics have been more forward-looking already since the late 1970s. We find evidence of substantial heterogeneity of inflation dynamics across the euro area countries. Real time data analysis suggests that in the euro area real time information matters most in the expectations term in the Phillips curve and that the balance of expectations formation is more forward- than backward-looking. Vector autoregressive (VAR) models of actual inflation, inflation expectations and the output gap are estimated in the last two articles.The VAR analysis indicates that inflation expectations, which are relatively persistent, have a significant effect on output. However,expectations seem to react to changes in both output and actual inflation, especially in the medium term. Overall, this study suggests that expectations play a central role in inflation dynamics, which should be taken into account in conducting monetary policy.