Screening Cycles

We demonstrate how endogenous information acquisition in credit markets creates lending cycles when competing banks undertake their screening decisions in an uncoordinated way, thereby highlighting the role of intertemporal screening externalities induced by lending market competition as a structural source of instability. We show that uncoordinated screening behavior of competing banks may be not only the source of an important financial multiplier, but also an independent source of fluctuations inducing business cycles. The screening cycle mechanism is robust to generalizations along many dimensions such as the lending market structure, the lending rate determination and the imperfections in the screening technology.

Information Sharing in Banking: A Collusive Device?

We show that information sharing among banks may serve as a collusive device. An informational sharing agreement is an a-priori commitment to reduce informational asymmetries between banks in future lending. Hence, information sharing tends to increase the intensity of competition in future periods and, thus, reduces the value of informational rents in current competition. We contribute to the existing literature by emphasizing that a reduction in informational rents will also reduce the intensity of competition in the current period, thereby reducing competitive pressure in current credit markets. We provide a large class of economic environments, where a ban on information sharing would be strictly welfare-enhancing.

New Evidence on the Properties of the Financial Statement Information Pricing Process

This study contributes to our knowledge of how information contained in financial statements is interpreted and priced by the stock market in two aspects. First, the empirical findings indicate that investors interpret some of the information contained in new financial statements in the context of the information of prior financial statements. Second, two central hypotheses offered in earlier literature to explain the significant connection between publicly available financial statement information and future abnormal returns, that the signals proxy for risk and that the information is priced with a delay, are evaluated utilizing a new methodology. It is found that the mentioned significant connection for some financial statement signals can be explained by that the signals proxy for risk and for other financial statement signals by that the information contained in the signals is priced with a delay.

The expiration day effect of indexoptions and index futures on the underlying shares

This paper studies the effect of the expiration day of index options and futures on the trading volume, variance and price of the underlying shares. The data consists of all trades for the underlying shares in the FOX-index for expiration days during the period October 1995 to the mid of yer 1999. The main results seem to support the findings of Kan 2001, i.e. no manipulation on a larger scale. However, some indication of manipulation could be found if certain characteristics are favorable. These characteristics include: a) a large quantity of outstanding futures or at/in the money options contracts, b) there exists shares with high index weight but fairly low trading volume. Lastly, there is some indication that manipulation might be more popular towards the end of the examined time period.

Hedging Options with Different Time Units in the Pricing Models

This study examined the effects of the Greeks of the options and the trading results of delta hedging strategies, with three different time units or option-pricing models. These time units were calendar time, trading time and continuous time using discrete approximation (CTDA) time. The CTDA time model is a pricing model, that among others accounts for intraday and weekend, patterns in volatility. For the CTDA time model some additional theta measures, which were believed to be usable in trading, were developed. The study appears to verify that there were differences in the Greeks with different time units. It also revealed that these differences influence the delta hedging of options or portfolios. Although it is difficult to say anything about which is the most usable of the different time models, as this much depends on the traders view of the passing of time, different market conditions and different portfolios, the CTDA time model can be viewed as an attractive alternative.

Factors Driving Stock Option Grants - Empirical Evidence from Finland

This study contributes to the executive stock option literature by looking at factors driving the introduction of such a compensation form on a firm level. Using a discrete decision model I test the explanatory power of several agency theory based variables and find strong support for predictability of the form of executive compensation. Ownership concentration and liquidity are found to have a significant negative effect on the probability of stock option adoption. Furtermore, I find evidence of CEO ownership, institutional ownership, investment intensity, and historical market return having a significant and a positive relationship to the likelihood of adopting a executive stock option program.

Executive Stock Options: Exercise Policy and Market Reaction

In this paper I investigate the exercise policy, and the market reaction to that, of the executive stock option holders in Finland. The empirical tests are conducted with aggregated firm level data from 34 firms and 41 stock option programs. I find some evidence of an inverse relation between the exercise intensity of the options holders and the future abnormal return of the company share price. This finding is supported by the view that information about future company prospect seems to be the only theoretical attribute that could delay the exercise of the options. Moreover, a high concentration of exercises in the beginning of the exercise window is predicted and the market is expected to react to deviations from this. The empirical findings however show that the market does not react homogenously to the information revealed by the late exercises.

The Impact of New Capital Requirements on the Portfolio Decisions of Finnish Pension Institutions

This paper examines the potential impact of new capital requirements on asset allocations of Finnish pension institutions. We describe the new requirements and consider portfolio construction to minimize regulatory capital, given the investor’s preferred level of expected return. Results identify portfolio transactions that enhance expected return without increasing capital needs. Regulation calls for portfolio diversification and prudence in management, but this paper shows that market participants can exploit inconsistencies in regulation. Possible future consequences include capital outflows from the pension system and an unintended decrease in pre-funding of old-age pensions.

With Good Reputation Size Does not Matter: Issue Frequency and the Determinants of Debt Maturity

This paper examines empirically the effect firm reputation has on the determinants of debt maturity. Utilising data from European primary bond market between 1999 and 2005, I find that the maturity choice of issuers with a higher reputation is less sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, market credit risk-premiums, prevailing firm credit quality and size of the debt issue. The annualised coupon payments are shown to be a significant factor in determining the debt maturity and reveal a monotonously increasing relationship between credit quality and debt maturity once controlled for. Finally, I show that issuers lacking a credit rating have an implied credit quality positioned between investment-grade and speculative-grade debt.

Maximum Loss Calculation using Scenario Analysis, Heavy Tails and Implied Volatility Patterns

The objective of this paper is to improve option risk monitoring by examining the information content of implied volatility and by introducing the calculation of a single-sum expected risk exposure similar to the Value-at-Risk. The figure is calculated in two steps. First, there is a need to estimate the value of a portfolio of options for a number of different market scenarios, while the second step is to summarize the information content of the estimated scenarios into a single-sum risk measure. This involves the use of probability theory and return distributions, which confronts the user with the problems of non-normality in the return distribution of the underlying asset. Here the hyperbolic distribution is used to describe one alternative for dealing with heavy tails. Results indicate that the information content of implied volatility is useful when predicting future large returns in the underlying asset. Further, the hyperbolic distribution provides a good fit to historical returns enabling a more accurate definition of statistical intervals and extreme events.

How Do Different Types of Investors React to New Financial Statement Information?

The study contributes to our understanding of the forces that drive the stock market by investigating how different types of investors react to new financial statement information. Using the extremely comprehensive official register of share holdings in Finland, we find that the majority of investors are more probable to sell (buy) stocks in a company after a positive (negative) earnings surprise, and show a bias towards buying after the disclosure of new financial statement information. Large investors, on the other hand, show behavior opposite to that of the majority of investors in the market. Further, foreign investors show behavior similar to that of domestic investors. We suggest investor overconfidence and asymmetric information as possible explanations for the documented behavior.

The Day of the Week Effect and Option Pricing - A Study of the German Option Market

The use of different time units in option pricing may lead to inconsistent estimates of time decay and spurious jumps in implied volatilities. Different time units in the pricing model leads to different implied volatilities although the option price itself is the same.The chosen time unit should make it necessary to adjust the volatility parameter only when there are some fundamental reasons for it and not due to wrong specifications of the model. This paper examined the effects of option pricing using different time hypotheses and empirically investigated which time frame the option markets in Germany employ over weekdays. The paper specifically tries to get a picture of how the market prices options. The results seem to verify that the German market behaves in a fashion that deviates from the most traditional time units in option pricing, calendar and trading days. The study also showed that the implied volatility of Thursdays was somewhat higher and thus differed from the pattern of other days of the week. Using a GARCH model to further investigate the effect showed that although a traditional tests, like the analysis of variance, indicated a negative return for Thursday during the same period as the implied volatilities used, this was not supported using a GARCH model.

An Empirical Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Volatility Models for Nordic Stock Returns

This paper examines how volatility in financial markets can preferable be modeled. The examination investigates how good the models for the volatility, both linear and nonlinear, are in absorbing skewness and kurtosis. The examination is done on the Nordic stock markets, including Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark. Different linear and nonlinear models are applied, and the results indicates that a linear model can almost always be used for modeling the series under investigation, even though nonlinear models performs slightly better in some cases. These results indicate that the markets under study are exposed to asymmetric patterns only to a certain degree. Negative shocks generally have a more prominent effect on the markets, but these effects are not really strong. However, in terms of absorbing skewness and kurtosis, nonlinear models outperform linear ones.

Performance Persistence of International Stock Funds

People saving in mutual funds often look at historical performance before they decide which funds to invest in. The implicit assumption made is that superior performance is likely to be repeated in the future. The findings presented in this study, which investigates funds sold on the Swedish market, support such an approach provided that the time horizons are limited to one year. International stock funds that have performed strongly one year are likely to outperform their peers also the following years. But if the historical and future time horizons are extended to two or three years, the positive relationship between past and future performance vanishes in most cases. Persistence tests focusing on the aggregated performance of fund companies were also carried out. These tests produced results rather similar to those on the individual fund level.

Performance of Finnish Mutual Funds: A Decomposition Approach

Mutual funds have increased in popularity among Finnish investors in recent years. In this study returns on domestic funds have been decomposed into several elements that measure different aspects of fund performance. The results indicate that fund managers in the long run tend to allocate fund capital between different stock categories in a profitable way. When it comes to the short term timing of their allocation decisions they are however unable to further improve overall performance. The evidence also suggests that managers possess the ability to pick above average performing stocks within the individual stock categories. During the investigated period most funds returned more than a broad benchmark index even after fees and indirect costs were taken into account.