The effect of blood glucose on the vasculature in young patients with type 1 diabetes

Background. Patients with type 1 diabetes are at markedly increased risk of vascular complications. In this respect it is noteworthy that hyperglycaemia that is shown to cause endothelial dysfunction, has clearly been shown to be a risk factor for diabetic microvascular disease. However, the role of hyperglycaemia as a predictor of macrovascular disease is not as clear as for microvascular disease, although type 1 diabetes itself increases the risk of cardiovascular disease substantially. Furthermore, it is not known whether it is the short-term or the long-term hyperglycaemia that confers possible risk. In addition, the role of glucose variability as a predictor of complications is to a large extent unexplored. Interestingly, although hyperglycaemia increases the risk of pre-eclampsia in women with type 1 diabetes, it is unclear whether pre-eclampsia, a condition characterized by endothelial dysfunction, is also a risk factor for microvascular complication, diabetic nephropathy. Aims. This doctoral thesis investigated the role of acute hyperglycaemia and glucose variability on arterial stiffness and cardiac ventricular repolarisation in male patients with type 1 diabetes as well as in healthy male volunteers. The thesis also explored whether acute hyperglycaemia leads to an inflammatory response, endothelial dysfunction and oxidative stress. Finally, the role of pre-eclampsia, as a predictor of diabetic nephropathy in type 1 diabetes was examined. Subjects and methods. In order to study glucose variability and the daily glycaemic control, 22 male patients with type 1 diabetes, without any diabetic complications, were monitored for 72-h with a continuous glucose monitoring system. At the end of the 72-h glucose monitoring period a 2-h hyperglycaemic clamp was performed both in the patients with type 1 diabetes and in the 13 healthy age-matched male volunteers. Blood pressure, arterial stiffness and QT time were measured to detect vascular changes during acute hyperglycaemia. Blood samples were drawn at baseline (normoglycaemia) and during acute hyperglycaemia. In another patient sample, women with type 1 diabetes were followed during their pregnancy and restudied eleven years later to elucidate the role of pre-eclampsia and pregnancy-induced hypertension as potential risk factors for diabetic nephropathy. Results and conclusions. Acute hyperglycaemia increased arterial stiffness as well as caused a disturbance in the myocardial ventricular repolarisation, emphasizing the importance of a strict daily glycaemic control in male patients with type 1 diabetes. An inflammatory response was also observed during acute hyperglycaemia. Furthermore, a high mean daily blood glucose but not glucose variability per se is associated with arterial stiffness. While glucose variability in turn correlated with central blood pressure, the results suggest that the glucose metabolism is closely linked to the haemodynamic changes in male patients with uncomplicated type 1 diabetes. Notably, the results are not directly applicable to females. Finally, a history of a pre-eclamptic pregnancy, but not pregnancy-induced hypertension was associated with increased risk of diabetic nephropathy.

Crosstalk between the sympathetic nervous system, inflammation and coagulation in gestational diabetes; a therapeutic approach in postmenopausal hypertension

The occurrence of gestational diabetes (GDM) during pregnancy is a powerful sign of a risk of later type 2 diabetes (T2D) and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). The physiological basis for this disease progression is not yet fully understood, but increasing evidence exists on interplay of insulin resistance, subclinical inflammation, and more recently, on unbalance of the autonomic nervous system. Since the delay in development of T2D and CVD after GDM ranges from years to decades, better understanding of the pathophysiology of GDM could give us new tools for primary prevention. The present study was aimed at investigating the role of the sympathetic nervous system (SNS) in GDM and its associations with insulin and a variety of inflammatory cytokines and coagulation and fibrinolysis markers. This thesis covers two separate study lines. Firstly, we investigated 41 women with GDM and 22 healthy pregnant and 14 non-pregnant controls during the night in hospital. Blood samples were drawn at 24:00, 4:00 and 7:00 h to determine the concentrations of plasma glucose, insulin, noradrenaline (NA) and adrenomedullin, markers of subclinical inflammation, coagulation and fibrinolysis variables and platelet function. Overnight holter ECG recording was performed for analysis of heart rate variability (HRV). Secondly, we studied 87 overweight hypertensive women with natural menopause. They were randomised to use a central sympatholytic agent, moxonidine (0.3mg twice daily), the β-blocking agent atenolol (50 mg once daily+blacebo once daily) for 8 weeks. Inflammatory markers and adiponectin were analysed at the beginning and after 8 weeks. Activation of the SNS (increase in NA, decreased HRV) was seen in pregnant vs. non-pregnant women, but no difference existed between GDM and normal pregnancy. However, modulation (internal rhythm) of HRV was attenuated in GDM. Insulin and inflammatory cytokine levels were comparable in all pregnant women but nocturnal variation of concentrations of C-reactive protein, serum amyloid A and insulin were reduced in GDM. Levels of coagulation factor VIII were lower in GDM compared with normal pregnancy, whereas no other differences were seen in coagulation and fibrinolysis markers. No significant associations were seen between NA and the studied parameters. In the study of postmenopausal women, moxonidine treatment was associated with favourable changes in the inflammatory profile, seen as a decrease in TNFα concentrations (increase in atenolol group) and preservation of adiponectin levels (decrease in atenolol group). In conclusion, our results did not support our hypotheses of increased SNS activity in GDM or a marked association between NA and inflammatory and coagulation markers. Reduced biological variation of HRV, insulin and inflammatory cytokines suggests disturbance of autonomic and hormonal regulatory mechanisms in GDM. This is a novel finding. Further understanding of the regulatory mechanisms could allow earlier detection of risk women and the possibility of prevention. In addition, our results support consideration of the SNS as one of the therapeutic targets in the battle against metabolic diseases, including T2D and CVD.

Approaching Sacred Pregnancy : The Cult of the Visitation and Narrative Altarpieces in Late Fifteenth-Century Florence

The study focuses on the Visitation as a narrative subject of altarpieces in late fifteenth-century Florence. Although the Visitation was a well-known story in both verbal and visual representations since the early medieval period, it became a popular subject of altarpieces only towards the end of the fifteenth century. In this study, the first part provides an overview of the complex religious and historical background to an emerging cult of the Visitation. Devotional practices focusing on the Visitation belong in a context of late medieval Marian devotion and in 1389 a new feast of the Visitation was introduced into the liturgical calendar of the Catholic Church. Because of the ongoing schism within the Catholic Church, the feast was not unanimously accepted across Western Europe until the later part of the fifteenth century. Contrary to a widely disseminated view, the feast of the Visitation cannot be associated with Franciscan spirituality, but was rather a clearly defined Dominican project that primarily emphasised the importance of peace and unity within the Christian Church. Simultaneously with the gradual acceptance of the new feast, visual representations of the Visitation began to appear at the centre of altarpieces. The Visitation exemplifies an increasing preference for narrative subjects within the genre of the altarpiece. The second part of the study presents an analysis of the concept of the narrative altarpiece and highlights the complexities involved in combining a narrative content with the traditional devotional function of the altarpiece. In detailed case studies some prominent art works produced in Florence between 1490 and 1503 are discussed within a framework of contextual analysis, narrative theory and iconography. Altarpieces by Domenico Ghirlandaio, Piero di Cosimo and Mariotto Albertinelli represent visual manifestations of a cult of the Visitation with roots in late medieval devotional practices. At the same time, the altarpieces highlight the multiple functions of altarpieces in a culture where art works responded to a variety of social and religious needs. Building on earlier studies, each case study presents new insights and evidence not considered in previous art historical research.

Coffee and risk of type 2 diabetes

Type 2 diabetes is one of the diseases that largely determined by lifestyle factors. Coffee is one of the most consumed beverages in the world and recently released data suggest the effects of coffee consumption on type 2 diabetes. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the effects of habitual coffee consumption on various aspects of type 2 diabetes and its most common complications. This study is part of the national FINRISK studies. Baseline surveys were carried out between 1972 and 1997. The surveys covered two eastern regions in 1972 and 1977, but were expanded to include a third region in southwestern Finland in 1982, 1987, 1992, and 1997. The Helsinki capital area was included in the survey in 1992 and 1997 and the Oulu province, in northern Finland, in 1997. Each survey was drawn from an independent random sample of the national register of subjects aged 25-64. In 1997, an additional sample of subjects aged 65-74 was conducted. The blood pressure, weight, and height of subjects were measured. By using self-administered questionnaires data were collected on medical history, socioeconomic factors, physical activity, smoking habits, and alcohol, coffee, and tea consumption. Higher coffee consumption was associated with higher body mass index, occupational physical activity and cigarette smoking, and lower blood pressure, education level, leisure time physical activity, tea consumption and alcohol use. Age, body mass index, systolic blood pressure and current smoking were positively associated with the risk of type 2 diabetes, however, education, and occupational, commuting and leisure time physical activity were inversely associated. The significant inverse association between coffee consumption and the risk of type 2 diabetes was found in both sexes but the association was stronger in women. Coffee consumption was significantly and inversely associated with fasting glucose, 2-hour plasma glucose, fasting insulin, impaired fasting glucose, impaired glucose regulation, and hyperinsulinemia among both men and women and with isolated impaired glucose tolerance among women. Serum gamma-glutamyltransferase modified the association between coffee consumption and incident diabetes. Among subjects with high serum -glutamyltransferase (>75th percentile), coffee consumption showed an inverse association for women, as well as men and women combined. An inverse association also occurred between coffee consumption and the risk of total, cardiovascular disease, and coronary heart disease mortality among patients with type 2 diabetes. The results of this study showed that habitual coffee consumption may be associated with a reduced risk of type 2 diabetes. Coffee consumption may have some effects on several markers of glycemia, and may lower the incident of type 2 diabetes in high normal serum -glutamyltransferase levels. Total, cardiovascular disease, and coronary heart disease mortality rate among subjects with type 2 diabetes may also be reduced by coffee consumption.

Early detection of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Chinese and Indian adult population

Objectives of this study were to determine secular trends of diabetes prevalence in China and develop simple risk assessment algorithms for screening individuals with high-risk for diabetes or with undiagnosed diabetes in Chinese and Indian adults. Two consecutive population based surveys in Chinese and a prospective study in Mauritian Indians were involved in this study. The Chinese surveys were conducted in randomly selected populations aged 20-74 years in 2001-2002 (n=14 592) and 35-74 years in 2006 (n=4416). A two-step screening strategy using fasting capillary plasma glucose (FCG) as first-line screening test followed by standard 2-hour 75g oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs) was applied to 12 436 individuals in 2001, while OGTTs were administrated to all participants together with FCG in 2006 and to 2156 subjects in 2002. In Mauritius, two consecutive population based surveys were conducted in Mauritian Indians aged 20-65 years in 1987 and 1992; 3094 Indians (1141 men), who were not diagnosed as diabetes at baseline, were reexamined with OGTTs in 1992 and/or 1998. Diabetes and pre-diabetes was defined following 2006 World Health Organization/ International Diabetes Federation Criteria. Age-standardized, as well as age- and sex-specific, prevalence of diabetes and pre-diabetes in adult Chinese was significantly increased from 12.2% and 15.4% in 2001 to 16.0% and 21.2% in 2006, respectively. A simple Chinese diabetes risk score was developed based on the data of Chinese survey 2001-2002 and validated in the population of survey 2006. The risk scores based on β coefficients derived from the final Logistic regression model ranged from 3 – 32. When the score was applied to the population of survey 2006, the area under operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the score for screening undiagnosed diabetes was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.65-0.70), which was lower than the AUC of FCG (0.76 [0.74-0.79]), but similar to that of HbA1c (0.68 [0.65-0.71]). At a cut-off point of 14, the sensitivity and specificity of the risk score in screening undiagnosed diabetes was 0.84 (0.81-0.88) and 0.40 (0.38-0.41). In Mauritian Indian, body mass index (BMI), waist girth, family history of diabetes (FH), and glucose was confirmed to be independent risk predictors for developing diabetes. Predicted probabilities for developing diabetes derived from a simple Cox regression model fitted with sex, FH, BMI and waist girth ranged from 0.05 to 0.64 in men and 0.03 to 0.49 in women. To predict the onset of diabetes, the AUC of the predicted probabilities was 0.62 (95% CI, 0.56-0.68) in men and 0.64(0.59-0.69) in women. At a cut-off point of 0.12, the sensitivity and specificity was 0.72(0.71-0.74) and 0.47(0.45-0.49) in men; and 0.77(0.75-0.78) and 0.50(0.48-0.52) in women, respectively. In conclusion, there was a rapid increase in prevalence of diabetes in Chinese adults from 2001 to 2006. The simple risk assessment algorithms based on age, obesity and family history of diabetes showed a moderate discrimination of diabetes from non-diabetes, which may be used as first line screening tool for diabetes and pre-diabetes, and for health promotion purpose in Chinese and Indians.

Familial aggregation of type 1 diabetes and diabetic nephropathy in Finland

Type 1 diabetes (T1D) is a common, multifactorial disease with strong familial clustering. In Finland, the incidence of T1D among children aged 14 years or under is the highest in the world. The increase in incidence has been approximately 2.4% per year. Although most new T1D cases are sporadic the first-degree relatives are at an increased risk of developing the same disease. This study was designed to examine the familial aggregation of T1D and one of its serious complications, diabetic nephropathy (DN). More specifically the study aimed (1) to determine the concordance rates of T1D in monozygotic (MZ) and dizygotic (DZ) twins and to estimate the relative contributions of genetic and environmental factors to the variability in liability to T1D as well as to study the age at onset of diabetes in twins; (2) to obtain long-term empirical estimates of the risk of T1D among siblings of T1D patients and the factors related to this risk, especially the effect of age at onset of diabetes in the proband and the birth cohort effect; (3) to establish if DN is aggregating in a Finnish population-based cohort of families with multiple cases of T1D, and to assess its magnitude and particularly to find out whether the risk of DN in siblings is varying according to the severity of DN in the proband and/or the age at onset of T1D: (4) to assess the recurrence risk of T1D in the offspring of a Finnish population-based cohort of patients with childhood onset T1D, and to investigate potential sex-related effects in the transmission of T1D from the diabetic parents to their offspring as well as to study whether there is a temporal trend in the incidence. The study population comprised of the Finnish Young Twin Cohort (22,650 twin pairs), a population-based cohort of patients with T1D diagnosed at the age of 17 years or earlier between 1965 and 1979 (n=5,144) and all their siblings (n=10,168) and offspring (n=5,291). A polygenic, multifactorial liability model was fitted to the twin data. Kaplan-Meier analyses were used to provide the cumulative incidence for the development of T1D and DN. Cox s proportional hazards models were fitted to the data. Poisson regression analysis was used to evaluate temporal trends in incidence. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) between the first-degree relatives of T1D patients and background population were determined. The twin study showed that the vast majority of affected MZ twin pairs remained discordant. Pairwise concordance for T1D was 27.3% in MZ and 3.8% in DZ twins. The probandwise concordance estimates were 42.9% and 7.4%, respectively. The model with additive genetic and individual environmental effects was the best-fitting liability model to T1D, with 88% of the phenotypic variance due to genetic factors. The second paper showed that the 50-year cumulative incidence of T1D in the siblings of diabetic probands was 6.9%. A young age at diagnosis in the probands considerably increased the risk. If the proband was diagnosed at the age of 0-4, 5-9, 10-14, 15 or more, the corresponding 40-year cumulative risks were 13.2%, 7.8%, 4.7% and 3.4%. The cumulative incidence increased with increasing birth year. However, SIR among children aged 14 years or under was approximately 12 throughout the follow-up. The third paper showed that diabetic siblings of the probands with nephropathy had a 2.3 times higher risk of DN compared with siblings of probands free of nephropathy. The presence of end stage renal disease (ESRD) in the proband increases the risk three-fold for diabetic siblings. Being diagnosed with diabetes during puberty (10-14) or a few years before (5-9) increased the susceptibility for DN in the siblings. The fourth paper revealed that of the offspring of male probands, 7.8% were affected by the age of 20 compared with 5.3% of the offspring of female probands. Offspring of fathers with T1D have 1.7 times greater risk to be affected with T1D than the offspring of mothers with T1D. The excess risk in the offspring of male fathers manifested itself through the higher risk the younger the father was when diagnosed with T1D. Young age at onset of diabetes in fathers increased the risk of T1D greatly in the offspring, but no such pattern was seen in the offspring of diabetic mothers. The SIR among offspring aged 14 years or under remained fairly constant throughout the follow-up, approximately 10. The present study has provided new knowledge on T1D recurrence risk in the first-degree relatives and the risk factors modifying the risk. Twin data demonstrated high genetic liability for T1D and increased heritability. The vast majority of affected MZ twin pairs, however, remain discordant for T1D. This study confirmed the drastic impact of the young age at onset of diabetes in the probands on the increased risk of T1D in the first-degree relatives. The only exception was the absence of this pattern in the offspring of T1D mothers. Both the sibling and the offspring recurrence risk studies revealed dynamic changes in the cumulative incidence of T1D in the first-degree relatives. SIRs among the first-degree relatives of T1D patients seems to remain fairly constant. The study demonstrates that the penetrance of the susceptibility genes for T1D may be low, although strongly influenced by the environmental factors. Presence of familial aggregation of DN was confirmed for the first time in a population-based study. Although the majority of the sibling pairs with T1D were discordant for DN, its presence in one sibling doubles and presence of ESRD triples the risk of DN in the other diabetic sibling. An encouraging observation was that although the proportion of children to be diagnosed with T1D at the age of 4 or under is increasing, they seem to have a decreased risk of DN or at least delayed onset.

Anthropometric measures of obesity-their association with type 2 diabetes and hypertension across ethnic groups

Clinical trials have shown that weight reduction with lifestyles can delay or prevent diabetes and reduce blood pressure. An appropriate definition of obesity using anthropometric measures is useful in predicting diabetes and hypertension at the population level. However, there is debate on which of the measures of obesity is best or most strongly associated with diabetes and hypertension and on what are the optimal cut-off values for body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) in this regard. The aims of the study were 1) to compare the strength of the association for undiagnosed or newly diagnosed diabetes (or hypertension) with anthropometric measures of obesity in people of Asian origin, 2) to detect ethnic differences in the association of undiagnosed diabetes with obesity, 3) to identify ethnic- and sex-specific change point values of BMI and WC for changes in the prevalence of diabetes and 4) to evaluate the ethnic-specific WC cutoff values proposed by the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) in 2005 for central obesity. The study population comprised 28 435 men and 35 198 women, ≥ 25 years of age, from 39 cohorts participating in the DECODA and DECODE studies, including 5 Asian Indian (n = 13 537), 3 Mauritian Indian (n = 4505) and Mauritian Creole (n = 1075), 8 Chinese (n =10 801), 1 Filipino (n = 3841), 7 Japanese (n = 7934), 1 Mongolian (n = 1991), and 14 European (n = 20 979) studies. The prevalence of diabetes, hypertension and central obesity was estimated, using descriptive statistics, and the differences were determined with the χ2 test. The odds ratios (ORs) or  coefficients (from the logistic model) and hazard ratios (HRs, from the Cox model to interval censored data) for BMI, WC, waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and waist-to-stature ratio (WSR) were estimated for diabetes and hypertension. The differences between BMI and WC, WHR or WSR were compared, applying paired homogeneity tests (Wald statistics with 1 df). Hierarchical three-level Bayesian change point analysis, adjusting for age, was applied to identify the most likely cut-off/change point values for BMI and WC in association with previously undiagnosed diabetes. The ORs for diabetes in men (women) with BMI, WC, WHR and WSR were 1.52 (1.59), 1.54 (1.70), 1.53 (1.50) and 1.62 (1.70), respectively and the corresponding ORs for hypertension were 1.68 (1.55), 1.66 (1.51), 1.45 (1.28) and 1.63 (1.50). For diabetes the OR for BMI did not differ from that for WC or WHR, but was lower than that for WSR (p = 0.001) in men while in women the ORs were higher for WC and WSR than for BMI (both p < 0.05). Hypertension was more strongly associated with BMI than with WHR in men (p < 0.001) and most strongly with BMI than with WHR (p < 0.001), WSR (p < 0.01) and WC (p < 0.05) in women. The HRs for incidence of diabetes and hypertension did not differ between BMI and the other three central obesity measures in Mauritian Indians and Mauritian Creoles during follow-ups of 5, 6 and 11 years. The prevalence of diabetes was highest in Asian Indians, lowest in Europeans and intermediate in others, given the same BMI or WC category. The  coefficients for diabetes in BMI (kg/m2) were (men/women): 0.34/0.28, 0.41/0.43, 0.42/0.61, 0.36/0.59 and 0.33/0.49 for Asian Indian, Chinese, Japanese, Mauritian Indian and European (overall homogeneity test: p > 0.05 in men and p < 0.001 in women). Similar results were obtained in WC (cm). Asian Indian women had lower  coefficients than women of other ethnicities. The change points for BMI were 29.5, 25.6, 24.0, 24.0 and 21.5 in men and 29.4, 25.2, 24.9, 25.3 and 22.5 (kg/m2) in women of European, Chinese, Mauritian Indian, Japanese, and Asian Indian descent. The change points for WC were 100, 85, 79 and 82 cm in men and 91, 82, 82 and 76 cm in women of European, Chinese, Mauritian Indian, and Asian Indian. The prevalence of central obesity using the 2005 IDF definition was higher in Japanese men but lower in Japanese women than in their Asian counterparts. The prevalence of central obesity was 52 times higher in Japanese men but 0.8 times lower in Japanese women compared to the National Cholesterol Education Programme definition. The findings suggest that both BMI and WC predicted diabetes and hypertension equally well in all ethnic groups. At the same BMI or WC level, the prevalence of diabetes was highest in Asian Indians, lowest in Europeans and intermediate in others. Ethnic- and sex-specific change points of BMI and WC should be considered in setting diagnostic criteria for obesity to detect undiagnosed or newly diagnosed diabetes.

Prevention of type 2 diabetes with lifestyle intervention - emphasis on dietary composition and identification of high-risk individuals

Type 2 diabetes is an increasing, serious, and costly public health problem. The increase in the prevalence of the disease can mainly be attributed to changing lifestyles leading to physical inactivity, overweight, and obesity. These lifestyle-related risk factors offer also a possibility for preventive interventions. Until recently, proper evidence regarding the prevention of type 2 diabetes has been virtually missing. To be cost-effective, intensive interventions to prevent type 2 diabetes should be directed to people at an increased risk of the disease. The aim of this series of studies was to investigate whether type 2 diabetes can be prevented by lifestyle intervention in high-risk individuals, and to develop a practical method to identify individuals who are at high risk of type 2 diabetes and would benefit from such an intervention. To study the effect of lifestyle intervention on diabetes risk, we recruited 522 volunteer, middle-aged (aged 40 - 64 at baseline), overweight (body mass index > 25 kg/m2) men (n = 172) and women (n = 350) with impaired glucose tolerance to the Diabetes Prevention Study (DPS). The participants were randomly allocated either to the intensive lifestyle intervention group or the control group. The control group received general dietary and exercise advice at baseline, and had annual physician's examination. The participants in the intervention group received, in addition, individualised dietary counselling by a nutritionist. They were also offered circuit-type resistance training sessions and were advised to increase overall physical activity. The intervention goals were to reduce body weight (5% or more reduction from baseline weight), limit dietary fat (< 30% of total energy consumed) and saturated fat (< 10% of total energy consumed), and to increase dietary fibre intake (15 g / 1000 kcal or more) and physical activity (≥ 30 minutes/day). Diabetes status was assessed annually by a repeated 75 g oral glucose tolerance testing. First analysis on end-points was completed after a mean follow-up of 3.2 years, and the intervention phase was terminated after a mean duration of 3.9 years. After that, the study participants continued to visit the study clinics for the annual examinations, for a mean of 3 years. The intervention group showed significantly greater improvement in each intervention goal. After 1 and 3 years, mean weight reductions were 4.5 and 3.5 kg in the intervention group and 1.0 kg and 0.9 kg in the control group. Cardiovascular risk factors improved more in the intervention group. After a mean follow-up of 3.2 years, the risk of diabetes was reduced by 58% in the intervention group compared with the control group. The reduction in the incidence of diabetes was directly associated with achieved lifestyle goals. Furthermore, those who consumed moderate-fat, high-fibre diet achieved the largest weight reduction and, even after adjustment for weight reduction, the lowest diabetes risk during the intervention period. After discontinuation of the counselling, the differences in lifestyle variables between the groups still remained favourable for the intervention group. During the post-intervention follow-up period of 3 years, the risk of diabetes was still 36% lower among the former intervention group participants, compared with the former control group participants. To develop a simple screening tool to identify individuals who are at high risk of type 2 diabetes, follow-up data of two population-based cohorts of 35-64 year old men and women was used. The National FINRISK Study 1987 cohort (model development data) included 4435 subjects, with 182 new drug-treated cases of diabetes identified during ten years, and the FINRISK Study 1992 cohort (model validation data) included 4615 subjects, with 67 new cases of drug-treated diabetes during five years, ascertained using the Social Insurance Institution's Drug register. Baseline age, body mass index, waist circumference, history of antihypertensive drug treatment and high blood glucose, physical activity and daily consumption of fruits, berries or vegetables were selected into the risk score as categorical variables. In the 1987 cohort the optimal cut-off point of the risk score identified 78% of those who got diabetes during the follow-up (= sensitivity of the test) and 77% of those who remained free of diabetes (= specificity of the test). In the 1992 cohort the risk score performed equally well. The final Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) form includes, in addition to the predictors of the model, a question about family history of diabetes and the age category of over 64 years. When applied to the DPS population, the baseline FINDRISC value was associated with diabetes risk among the control group participants only, indicating that the intensive lifestyle intervention given to the intervention group participants abolished the diabetes risk associated with baseline risk factors. In conclusion, the intensive lifestyle intervention produced long-term beneficial changes in diet, physical activity, body weight, and cardiovascular risk factors, and reduced diabetes risk. Furthermore, the effects of the intervention were sustained after the intervention was discontinued. The FINDRISC proved to be a simple, fast, inexpensive, non-invasive, and reliable tool to identify individuals at high risk of type 2 diabetes. The use of FINDRISC to identify high-risk subjects, followed by lifestyle intervention, provides a feasible scheme in preventing type 2 diabetes, which could be implemented in the primary health care system.

Type 1 and type 2 diabetes among young adults in Finland : Incidence and perinatal exposures

This study aimed to examine the incidence of young adult-onset T1DM and T2DM among Finns, and to explore the possible risk factors for young adult-onset T1DM and T2DM that occur during the perinatal period and childhood. In the studies I-II, the incidence of diabetes was examined among 15-39-year-old Finns during the years 1992-2001. Information on the new diagnoses of diabetes was collected from four sources: standardized national reports filled in by diabetes nurses, the Hospital Discharge Register, the Drug Reimbursement Register, and the Drug Prescription Register. The type of diabetes was assigned using information obtained from these four data sources. The incidence of T1DM was 18 per 100,000/year, and there was a clear male predominance in the incidence of T1DM. The incidence of T1DM increased on average 3.9% per year during 1992-2001. The incidence of T2DM was 13 per 100,000/year, and it displayed an increase of 4.3% per year. In the studies III-V, the effects of perinatal exposures and childhood growth on the risk for young adult-onset T1DM and T2DM were explored in a case-control setting. Individuals diagnosed with T1DM (n=1,388) and T2DM (n=1,121) during the period 1992-1996 were chosen as the diabetes cases for the study, and two controls were chosen for each case from the National Population Register. Data on the study subjects parents and siblings was obtained from the National Population Register. The study subjects original birth records and child welfare clinic records were traced nationwide. The risk for young adult-onset T2DM was the lowest among the offspring of mothers aged about 30 years, whereas the risk for T2DM increased towards younger and older maternal ages. Birth orders second to fourth were found protective of T2DM. In addition, the risk for T2DM was observed to decrease with increasing birth weight until 4.2 kg, after which the risk began to increase. A high body mass index (BMI) at the BMI rebound between ages 3-11 years substantially increased the risk for T2DM, and the excess weight gain in individuals diagnosed with T2DM began in early childhood. Maternal age, birth order, or body size at birth had no effect on the risk for young adult-onset T1DM. Instead, individuals with T1DM were observed to have a higher maximum BMI before the age of 3 than their control subjects. In conclusion, the increasing trend in the development of both T1DM and T2DM among young Finnish adults is alarming. The high risk for T1DM among the Finnish population extends to at least 40 years of age, and at least 200-300 young Finnish adults are diagnosed with T2DM every year. Growth during the fetal period and childhood notably affects the risk for T2DM. T2DM prevention should also target childhood obesity. Rapid growth during the first years of life may be a risk factor for late-onset T1DM.

Statistical analysis of the associations of hereditary factors with the risk of Type 1 diabetes and Diabetic Nephropathy based on the familial data collected through ascertaiment from population-based registers

In genetic epidemiology, population-based disease registries are commonly used to collect genotype or other risk factor information concerning affected subjects and their relatives. This work presents two new approaches for the statistical inference of ascertained data: a conditional and full likelihood approaches for the disease with variable age at onset phenotype using familial data obtained from population-based registry of incident cases. The aim is to obtain statistically reliable estimates of the general population parameters. The statistical analysis of familial data with variable age at onset becomes more complicated when some of the study subjects are non-susceptible, that is to say these subjects never get the disease. A statistical model for a variable age at onset with long-term survivors is proposed for studies of familial aggregation, using latent variable approach, as well as for prospective studies of genetic association studies with candidate genes. In addition, we explore the possibility of a genetic explanation of the observed increase in the incidence of Type 1 diabetes (T1D) in Finland in recent decades and the hypothesis of non-Mendelian transmission of T1D associated genes. Both classical and Bayesian statistical inference were used in the modelling and estimation. Despite the fact that this work contains five studies with different statistical models, they all concern data obtained from nationwide registries of T1D and genetics of T1D. In the analyses of T1D data, non-Mendelian transmission of T1D susceptibility alleles was not observed. In addition, non-Mendelian transmission of T1D susceptibility genes did not make a plausible explanation for the increase in T1D incidence in Finland. Instead, the Human Leucocyte Antigen associations with T1D were confirmed in the population-based analysis, which combines T1D registry information, reference sample of healthy subjects and birth cohort information of the Finnish population. Finally, a substantial familial variation in the susceptibility of T1D nephropathy was observed. The presented studies show the benefits of sophisticated statistical modelling to explore risk factors for complex diseases.