Identifying risk-efficient strategies using stochastic frontier analysis and simulation: An application to irrigated cropping in Australia

In irrigated cropping, as with any other industry, profit and risk are inter-dependent. An increase in profit would normally coincide with an increase in risk, and this means that risk can be traded for profit. It is desirable to manage a farm so that it achieves the maximum possible profit for the desired level of risk. This paper identifies risk-efficient cropping strategies that allocate land and water between crop enterprises for a case study of an irrigated farm in Southern Queensland, Australia. This is achieved by applying stochastic frontier analysis to the output of a simulation experiment. The simulation experiment involved changes to the levels of business risk by systematically varying the crop sowing rules in a bioeconomic model of the case study farm. This model utilises the multi-field capability of the process based Agricultural Production System Simulator (APSIM) and is parameterised using data collected from interviews with a collaborating farmer. We found sowing rules that increased the farm area sown to cotton caused the greatest increase in risk-efficiency. Increasing maize area also improved risk-efficiency but to a lesser extent than cotton. Sowing rules that increased the areas sown to wheat reduced the risk-efficiency of the farm business. Sowing rules were identified that had the potential to improve the expected farm profit by ca. $50,000 Annually, without significantly increasing risk. The concept of the shadow price of risk is discussed and an expression is derived from the estimated frontier equation that quantifies the trade-off between profit and risk.

Response of irrigated cotton to applied nitrogen

Like all high yielding farming systems nitrogen (N) is a key component to their productivity and profitability and Australian irrigated cotton growers are tending to apply more N than is required for the level of lint yield that is being achieved. This suggests either over application of N or inefficient systems limiting the response of cotton to N inputs. To investigate this four replicated trials were established in commercial fields during the 2014/15 season. The trials were aiming to measure the difference in response of irrigated cotton to the application of N under flood and overhead irrigation systems. The application treatments utilized eight upfront rates of applied N, ranging from 0 N kg/ha to a maximum of 410 kg N/ha, with three of the fours trials receiving a growerdetermined in-crop application of N in the irrigation water. The two flood irrigation systems had lower lint yields from similar levels of N input compared to one of the overhead irrigated sites; the result from the second overhead site was impacted by disease. This paper discusses the response of plant N uptake, lint yield and fertilizer N recovery to N application..

Risk management strategies using seasonal climate forecasting in irrigated cotton production: a tale of stochastic dominance.

Decision-making in agriculture is carried out in an uncertain environment with farmers often seeking information to reduce risk. As a result of the extreme variability of rainfall and stream-flows in north-eastern Australia, water supplies for irrigated agriculture are a limiting factor and a source of risk. The present study examined the use of seasonal climate forecasting (SCF) when calculating planting areas for irrigated cotton in the northern Murray Darling Basin. Results show that minimising risk by adjusting plant areas in response to SCF can lead to significant gains in gross margin returns. However, how farmers respond to SCF is dependent on several other factors including irrigators’ attitude towards risk.

Extent of dense native woodland and exotic weed infestation in the extensive grazing lands of the Upper Herbert and Upper Burdekin River Catchments of far north Queensland: results of a producer survey

The Mt Garnet Landcare Group commissioned a survey of landholders within the Upper Herbert and Upper Burdekin River Catchments to assess the density of native woodlands and to gauge the extent of exotic weed infestation. Twenty-four of 49 landholders responded, representing an area of nearly 500 000 ha or 47% of the total area. Dense native woodland covers 24% (>117 000 ha) of the area surveyed, while a further 30% (140 000 ha) supports moderately dense stands. The dense stands are largely confined to the highly fertile alluvial soils (26% dense woodland) and the lower fertility sandy-surfaced soils (33% or >96 000 ha). Moderate and dense infestations of exotic weeds, principally Lantana camara, occur on 54% (20 000 ha) of alluvial soils and on 13% of sandy-surfaced soils (39 000 ha), where praxelis (Praxelis clematidia) is the major weed. Basaltic soils have low levels of both dense woodland and exotic weed infestation. Some implications of the results are discussed.

Protein supplementation and growth enhancer strategies in successive years to maximise growth of Brahman cross steers grazing sown grass pastures on brigalow lands

A strategy comprising a winter/spring protein supplement, rumen modifier and hormonal growth promotant (Compudose 400) was used in either the first year (Tl), second year (T2), or in both years (T1+2) following weaning in Brahman cross steers as a means of increasing liveweight gain up to 2.5 years of age. T2 produced the heaviest final liveweight (544.7 kg) and highest overall liveweight gain (366.7 kg), but these were not significantly different from T1 (538.6 kg; 360.9 kg), or T1+2 (528.7 kg; 349.3 kg). However, final liveweight and overall liveweight gains of T1 and T2 but not T1+2 were significantly greater than for untreated (C) steers (504.9 kg; 325.2 kg, both P < 0.05). Regardless of the strategy imposed, liveweight and liveweight gain were enhanced, however final liveweights in each treatment were below the preferred minimum target liveweight (570-580 kg) for premium export markets. Treatment in both years gave no benefit over treatment in 1 year only. 19th Biennial Conference. 5-9 July 1992. LaTrobe University, Melbourne.

Spectral and thermal sensing for nitrogen and water status in rainfed and irrigated wheat environments

Variable-rate technologies and site-specific crop nutrient management require real-time spatial information about the potential for response to in-season crop management interventions. Thermal and spectral properties of canopies can provide relevant information for non-destructive measurement of crop water and nitrogen stresses. In previous studies, foliage temperature was successfully estimated from canopy-scale (mixed foliage and soil) temperatures and the multispectral Canopy Chlorophyll Content Index (CCCI) was effective in measuring canopy-scale N status in rainfed wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) systems in Horsham, Victoria, Australia. In the present study, results showed that under irrigated wheat systems in Maricopa, Arizona, USA, the theoretical derivation of foliage temperature unmixing produced relationships similar to those in Horsham. Derivation of the CCCI led to an r2 relationship with chlorophyll a of 0.53 after Zadoks stage 43. This was later than the relationship (r2 = 0.68) developed for Horsham after Zadoks stage 33 but early enough to be used for potential mid-season N fertilizer recommendations. Additionally, ground-based hyperspectral data estimated plant N (g kg)1) in Horsham with an r2 = 0.86 but was confounded by water supply and N interactions. By combining canopy thermal and spectral properties, varying water and N status can potentially be identified eventually permitting targeted N applications to those parts of a field where N can be used most efficiently by the crop.

Detection of Arcobacter spp. in piggery effluent and effluent-irrigated soils in southeast Queensland

Aims: To investigate the occurrence and levels of Arcobacter spp. in pig effluent ponds and effluent-treated soil. Methods and Results: A Most Probable Number (MPN) method was developed to assess the levels of Arcobacter spp. in seven pig effluent ponds and six effluent-treated soils, immediately after effluent irrigation. Arcobacter spp. levels in the effluent ponds varied from 6.5 × 105 to 1.1 × 108 MPN 100 ml-1 and in freshly irrigated soils from 9.5 × 102 to 2.8 × 104 MPN g-1 in all piggery environments tested. Eighty-three Arcobacter isolates were subjected to an abbreviated phenotypic test scheme and examined using a multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The PCR identified 35% of these isolates as Arcobacter butzleri, 49% as Arcobacter cryaerophilus while 16% gave no band. All 13 nonreactive isolates were subjected to partial 16S rDNA sequencing and showed a high similarity (>99%) to Arcobacter cibarius. Conclusions: A. butzleri, A. cryaerophilus and A. cibarius were isolated from both piggery effluent and effluent-irrigated soil, at levels suggestive of good survival in the effluent pond. Significance and Impact of the Study: This is the first study to provide quantitative information on Arcobacter spp. levels in piggery effluent and to associate A. cibarius with pigs and piggery effluent environments.

Integrating grazing and forage systems on marginal cropping lands

Planned grazing systems are being introduced to beef cattle enterprises across the marginal cropping lands of Queensland, as they are on more extensive grazing properties. Systems range from continuous grazing with opportunistic summer rest periods to cell systems with more than 60 paddocks. The aim of planned grazing is to increase production, improve sustainability and increase economic viability from both the pastured and cropping lands of a property. Managing the more intensive grazing systems on native or sown pastures with strategic summer and winter forage crops is a challenge under the variable rainfall conditions. Under favourable conditions, integrating summer and winter crops with summer-growing grass-based pastures offers a wider range of options for breeding, finishing and marketing cattle. The integration of pasture grazing systems with opportunistic forage cropping systems on marginal cropping lands is discussed, and a current research project assessing grazing systems is described.

The effect of endophyte on the performance of irrigated perennial ryegrasses in subtropical Australia

The effect of fungal endophyte (Neotyphodium lolii) infection on the performance of perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne) growing under irrigation in a subtropical environment was investigated. Seed of 4 cultivars, infected with standard (common toxic or wild-type) endophyte or the novel endophyte AR1, or free of endophyte (Nil), was sown in pure swards, which were fertilised with 50 kg N/ha.month. Seasonal and total yield, persistence, and rust susceptibility were assessed over 3 years, along with details of the presence of endophyte and alkaloids in plant shoots. Endophyte occurrence in tillers in both the standard and AR1 treatments was above 95% for Bronsyn and Impact throughout and rose to that level in Samson by the end of the second year. Meridian AR1 only reached 93% while, in the standard treatment, the endophyte had mostly died before sowing. Nil Zendophyte treatments carried an average of ?0.6% infection throughout. Infection of the standard endophyte was associated with increased dry matter (DM) yields in all 3 years compared with no endophyte. AR1 also significantly increased yields in the second and third years. Over the full 3 years, standard and AR1 increased yields by 18% and 11%, respectively. Infection with both endophytes was associated with increased yields in all 4 seasons, the effects increasing in intensity over time. There was 27% better persistence in standard infected plants compared with Nil at the end of the first year, increasing to 198% by the end of the experiment, while for AR1 the improvements were 20 and 134%, respectively. The effect of endophyte on crown rust (Puccinia coronata) infection was inconsistent, with endophyte increasing rust damage on one occasion and reducing it on another. Cultivar differences in rust infection were greater than endophyte effects. Plants infected with the AR1 endophyte had no detectable ergovaline or lolitrem B in leaf, pseudostem, or dead tissue. In standard infected plants, ergovaline and lolitrem B were highest in pseudostem and considerably lower in leaf. Dead tissue had very low or no detectable ergovaline but high lolitrem B concentrations. Peramine concentration was high and at similar levels in leaf and pseudostem, but not detectable in dead material. Concentration was similar in both AR1 and standard infected plants. Endophyte presence appeared to have a similar effect in the subtropics as has been demonstrated in temperate areas, in terms of improving yields and persistence and increasing tolerance of plants to stress factors.

Comparison of nitrogen fertilization methods and rates for subsurface drip irrigated corn in the semi-arid Great Plains

In semi-arid areas such as western Nebraska, interest in subsurface drip irrigation (SDI) for corn is increasing due to restricted irrigation allocations. However, crop response quantification to nitrogen (N) applications with SDI and the environmental benefits of multiple in-season (IS) SDI N applications instead of a single early-season (ES) surface application are lacking. The study was conducted in 2004, 2005, and 2006 at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln West Central Research and Extension Center in North Platte, Nebraska, comparing two N application methods (IS and ES) and three N rates (128, 186, and 278 kg N ha(-1)) using a randomized complete block design with four replications. No grain yield or biomass response was observed in 2004. In 2005 and 2006, corn grain yield and biomass production increased with increasing N rates, and the IS treatment increased grain yield, total N uptake, and gross return after N application costs (GRN) compared to the ES treatment. Chlorophyll meter readings taken at the R3 corn growth stage in 2006 showed that less N was supplied to the plant with ES compared to the IS treatment. At the end of the study, soil NO3-N masses in the 0.9 to 1.8 m depth were greater under the IS treatment compared to the ES treatment. Results suggested that greater losses of NO3-N below the root zone under the ES treatment may have had a negative effect on corn production. Under SDI systems, fertigating a recommended N rate at various corn growth stages can increase yields, GRN, and reduce NO3-N leaching in soils compared to concentrated early-season applications.

Comparative productivity of irrigated short-term ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum) pasture receiving nitrogen, grown alone or in a mixture with white (Trifolium repens) and Persian (T. resupinatum) clovers

Dairy farms in subtropical Australia use irrigated, annually sown short-term ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum) or mixtures of short-term ryegrass and white (Trifolium repens) and Persian (shaftal) (T. resupinatum) clover during the winter-spring period in all-year-round milk production systems. A series of small plot cutting experiments was conducted in 3 dairying regions (tropical upland, north Queensland, and subtropical southeast Queensland and northern New South Wales) to determine the most effective rate and frequency of application of nitrogen (N) fertiliser. The experiments were not grazed, nor was harvested material returned to the plots, after sampling. Rates up to 100 kg N/ha.month (as urea or calcium ammonium nitrate) and up to 200 kg N/ha every 2 months (as urea) were applied to pure stands of ryegrass in 1991. In 1993 and 1994, urea, at rates up to 150 kg N/ha.month and to 200 kg N/ha every 2 months, was applied to pure stands of ryegrass; urea, at rates up to 50 kg N/ha.month, was also applied to ryegrass-clover mixtures. The results indicate that applications of 50-85 kg N/ha.month can be recommended for short-term ryegrass pastures throughout the subtropics and tropical uplands of eastern Australia, irrespective of soil type. At this rate, dry matter yields will reach about 90% of their potential, forage nitrogen concentration will be increased, there is minimal risk to stock from nitrate poisoning and there will be no substantial increase in soil N. The rate of N for ryegrass-clover pastures is slightly higher than for pure ryegrass but, at these rates, the clover component will be suppressed. However, increased ryegrass yields and higher forage nitrogen concentrations will compensate for the reduced clover component. At application rates up to 100 kg N/ha.month, build-up of NO3--N and NH4+-N in soil was generally restricted to the surface layers (0-20 cm) of the soil, but there was a substantial increase throughout the soil profile at 150 kg N/ha.month. The build-up of NO3--N and NH4+-N was greater and was found at lower rates on the lighter soil compared with heavy clays. Generally, most of the soil N was in the NO3--N form and most was in the top 20 cm.

Sown pasture grasses and legumes for marginal cropping lands in southern inland Queensland

A rich suite of pasture legumes and grasses have been released for the Queensland grain belt, particularly from forage evaluation programs carried out during the past 50 years (Gramshaw and Walker 1988; http://www.pi.csiro.au/ahpc/). Thus, there is an extensive and comprehensive knowledge of the adaptation of those species and adaptation is being extended widely - for example, to farmer groups in 'LeyGrain' workshops developed and delivered by the authors, and as written information (e.g. Lloyd et al. 2006; 2007a; 2007b) and on the website www.dpi.qld.gov.au. However, our knowledge is broad and, as we come to understand natural systems, their limitations and the extent of variation within those systems, it is equally clear that our knowledge of pasture plant adaptation is not as well defined as it needs to be. It is an interesting conflict - the more we understand, the more we begin to realise our lack of understanding. The appropriate species for sowing in different situations are discussed.

The effects of high stocking rates on milk production from dryland and irrigated Mediterranean pastures

An experiment using herds of similar to 20 cows (farmlets) assessed the effects of high stocking rates on production and profitability of feeding systems based on dryland and irrigated perennial ryegrass-based pastures in a Mediterranean environment in South Australia over 4 years. A target level of milk production of 7000 L/cow.year was set, based on predicted intakes of 2.7 t DM/cow.year as concentrates, pasture intakes from 1.5 to 2.7 t/cow.year and purchased fodder. In years 1 and 2, up to 1.5 t DM/cow.year of purchased fodder was used and in years 3 and 4 the amounts were increased if necessary to enable levels of milk production per cow to be maintained at target levels. Cows in dryland farmlets calved in March to May inclusive and were stocked at 2.5, 2.9, 3.3, 3.6 and 4.1 cows/ha, while those in irrigated farmlets calved in August to October inclusive and were stocked at 4.1, 5.2, 6.3 and 7.4 cows/ha. In the first 2 years, when inputs of purchased fodder were limited, milk production per cow was reduced with higher stocking rates (P < 0.01), but in years 3 and 4 there were no differences. Mean production was 7149 kg/cow.year in years 1 and 2, and 8162 kg/cow.year in years 3 and 4. Production per hectare was very closely related to stocking rate in all years (P < 0.01), increasing from 18 to 34 t milk/ha.year for dryland farmlets (1300 to 2200 kg milk solids/ha) and from 30 to 60 t milk/ha.year for irrigated farmlets (2200 to 4100 kg milk solids/ha). Almost all of these increases were attributed to the increases in grain and purchased fodder inputs associated with the increases in stocking rate. Net pasture accumulation rates and pasture harvest were generally not altered with stocking rate, though as stocking rate increased there was a change to more of the pasture being grazed and less conserved in both dryland and irrigated farmlets. Total pasture harvest averaged similar to 8 and 14 t DM/ha.year for dryland and irrigated pastures, respectively. An exception was at the highest stocking rate under irrigation, where pugging during winter was associated with a 14% reduction in annual pasture growth. There were several indications that these high stocking rates may not be sustainable without substantial changes in management practice. There were large and positive nutrient balances and associated increases in soil mineral content (P < 0.01), especially for phosphorus and nitrate nitrogen, with both stocking rate and succeeding years. Levels under irrigation were considerably higher (up to 90 and 240 mg/kg of soil for nitrate nitrogen and phosphorus, respectively) than under dryland pastures (60 and 140 mg/kg, respectively). Soil organic carbon levels did not change with stocking rate, indicating a high level of utilisation of forage grown. Weed ingress was also high (to 22% DM) in all treatments and especially in heavily stocked irrigated pastures during winter. It was concluded the higher stocking rates used exceeded those that are feasible for Mediterranean pastures in this environment and upper levels of stocking are suggested to be 2.5 cows/ha for dryland pastures and 5.2 cows/ha for irrigated pastures. To sustain these suggested stocking rates will require further development of management practices to avoid large increases in soil minerals and weed invasion of pastures.

The performance of irrigated mixtures of tall fescue, ryegrass and white clover in subtropical Australia. 2. The effects on yield and botanical composition of managing for quality.

The effects on yield, botanical composition and persistence, of using a variable defoliation schedule as a means of optimising the quality of the tall fescue component of simple and complex temperate pasture mixtures in a subtropical environment was studied in a small plot cutting experiment at Gatton Research Station in south-east Queensland. A management schedule of 2-, 3- and 4-weekly defoliations in summer, autumn and spring and winter, respectively, was imposed on 5 temperate pasture mixtures: 2 simple mixtures including tall fescue (Festuca arundinacea) and white clover (Trifolium repens); 2 mixtures including perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne), tall fescue and white clover; and a complex mixture, which included perennial ryegrass, tall fescue, white, red (T. pratense) and Persian (T. resupinatum) clovers and chicory (Cichorium intybus). Yield from the variable cutting schedule was 9% less than with a standard 4-weekly defoliation. This loss resulted from reductions in both the clover component (13%) and cumulative grass yield (6%). There was no interaction between cutting schedule and sowing mixture, with simple and complex sowing mixtures reacting in a similar manner to both cutting schedules. The experiment also demonstrated that, in complex mixtures, the cutting schedules used failed to give balanced production from all sown components. This was especially true of the grass and white clover components of the complex mixture, as chicory and Persian clover components dominated the mixtures, particularly in the first year. Quality measurements (made only in the final summer) suggested that variable management had achieved a quality improvement with increases in yields of digestible crude protein (19%) and digestible dry matter (9%) of the total forage produced in early summer. The improvements in the yields of digestible crude protein and digestible dry matter of the tall fescue component in late summer were even greater (28 and 19%, respectively). While advantages at other times of the year were expected to be smaller, the data suggested that the small loss in total yield was likely to be offset by increases in digestibility of available forage for grazing stock, especially in the critical summer period.

The performance of irrigated mixtures of tall fescue, ryegrass and white clover in subtropical Australia. 1. The effects of sowing mixture combinations, nitrogen and oversowing on establishment, productivity, botanical composition and persistence.

In the subtropics of Australia, the ryegrass component of irrigated perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne) - white clover (Trifolium repens) pastures declines by approximately 40% in the summer following establishment, being replaced by summer-active C4 grasses. Tall fescue (Festuca arundinacea) is more persistent than perennial ryegrass and might resist this invasion, although tall fescue does not compete vigorously as a seedling. This series of experiments investigated the influence of ryegrass and tall fescue genotype, sowing time and sowing mixture as a means of improving tall fescue establishment and the productivity and persistence of tall fescue, ryegrass and white clover-based mixtures in a subtropical environment. Tall fescue frequency at the end of the establishment year decreased as the number of companion species sown in the mixture increased. Neither sowing mixture combinations nor sowing rates influenced overall pasture yield (of around 14 t/ha) in the establishment year but had a significant effect on botanical composition and component yields. Perennial ryegrass was less competitive than short-rotation ryegrass, increasing first-year yields of tall fescue by 40% in one experiment and by 10% in another but total yield was unaffected. The higher establishment-year yield (3.5 t/ha) allowed Dovey tall fescue to compete more successfully with the remaining pasture components than Vulcan (1.4 t/ha). Sowing 2 ryegrass cultivars in the mixture reduced tall fescue yields by 30% compared with a single ryegrass (1.6 t/ha), although tall fescue alone achieved higher yields (7.1 t/ha). Component sowing rate had little influence on composition or yield. Oversowing the ryegrass component into a 6-week-old sward of tall fescue and white clover improved tall fescue, white clover and overall yields in the establishment year by 83, 17 and 11%, respectively, but reduced ryegrass yields by 40%. The inclusion of red (T. pratense) and Persian (T. resupinatum) clovers and chicory (Cichorium intybus) increased first-year yields by 25% but suppressed perennial grass and clover components. Yields were generally maintained at around 12 t/ha/yr in the second and third years, with tall fescue becoming dominant in all 3 experiments. The lower tall fescue seeding rate used in the first experiment resulted in tall fescue dominance in the second year following establishment, whereas in Experiments 2 and 3 dominance occurred by the end of the first year. Invasion by the C4 grasses was relatively minor (<10%) even in the third year. As ryegrass plants died, tall fescue and, to a lesser extent, white clover increased as a proportion of the total sward. Treatment effects continued into the second, but rarely the third, year and mostly affected the yield of one of the components rather than total cumulative yield. Once tall fescue became dominant, it was difficult to re-introduce other pasture components, even following removal of foliage and moderate renovation. Severe renovation (reducing the tall fescue population by at least 30%) seems a possible option for redressing this situation.