Evaluating and validating abundance monitoring methods in the absence of populations of known size: review and application to a passive tracking index

Rarely is it possible to obtain absolute numbers in free-ranging populations and although various direct and indirect methods are used to estimate abundance, few are validated against populations of known size. In this paper, we apply grounding, calibration and verification methods, used to validate mathematical models, to methods of estimating relative abundance. To illustrate how this might be done, we consider and evaluate the widely applied passive tracking index (PTI) methodology. Using published data, we examine the rationality of PTI methodology, how conceptually animal activity and abundance are related and how alternative methods are subject to similar biases or produce similar abundance estimates and trends. We then attune the method against populations representing a range of densities likely to be encountered in the field. Finally, we compare PTI trends against a prediction that adjacent populations of the same species will have similar abundance values and trends in activity. We show that while PTI abundance estimates are subject to environmental and behavioural stochasticity peculiar to each species, the PTI method and associated variance estimate showed high probability of detection, high precision of abundance values and, generally, low variability between surveys, and suggest that the PTI method applied using this procedure and for these species provides a sensitive and credible index of abundance. This same or similar validation approach can and should be applied to alternative relative abundance methods in order to demonstrate their credibility and justify their use.

Stock assessment of the Queensland east coast common coral trout (Plectropomus leopardus) fishery

Common coral trout Plectropomus leopardus is an iconic fish of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and is the most important fish for the commercial fishery there. Most of the catch is exported live to Asia. This stock assessment was undertaken in response to falls in catch sizes and catch rates in recent years, in order to gauge the status of the stock. It is the first stock assessment ever conducted of coral trout on the GBR, and brings together a multitude of different data sources for the first time. The GBR is very large and was divided into a regional structure based on the Bioregions defined by expert committees appointed by the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority (GBRMPA) as part of the 2004 rezoning of the GBR. The regional structure consists of six Regions, from the Far Northern Region in the north to the Swains and Capricorn–Bunker Regions in the south. Regions also closely follow the boundaries between Bioregions. Two of the northern Regions are split into Subregions on the basis of potential changes in fishing intensity between the Subregions; there are nine Subregions altogether, which include four Regions that are not split. Bioregions are split into Subbioregions along the Subregion boundaries. Finally, each Subbioregion is split into a “blue” population which is open to fishing and a “green” population which is closed to fishing. The fishery is unusual in that catch rates as an indicator of abundance of coral trout are heavily influenced by tropical cyclones. After a major cyclone, catch rates fall for two to three years, and rebound after that. This effect is well correlated with the times of occurrence of cyclones, and usually occurs in the same month that the cyclone strikes. However, statistical analyses correlating catch rates with cyclone wind energy did not provide significantly different catch rate trends. Alternative indicators of cyclone strength may explain more of the catch rate decline, and future work should investigate this. Another feature of catch rates is the phenomenon of social learning in coral trout populations, whereby when a population of coral trout is fished, individuals quickly learn not to take bait. Then the catch rate falls sharply even when the population size is still high. The social learning may take place by fish directly observing their fellows being hooked, or perhaps heeding a chemo-sensory cue emitted by fish that are hooked. As part of the assessment, analysis of data from replenishment closures of Boult Reef in the Capricorn–Bunker Region (closed 1983–86) and Bramble Reef in the Townsville Subregion (closed 1992–95) estimated a strong social learning effect. A major data source for the stock assessment was the large collection of underwater visual survey (UVS) data collected by divers who counted the coral trout that they sighted. This allowed estimation of the density of coral trout in the different Bioregions (expressed as a number of fish per hectare). Combined with mapping data of all the 3000 or so reefs making up the GBR, the UVS results provided direct estimates of the population size in each Subbioregion. A regional population dynamic model was developed to account for the intricacies of coral trout population dynamics and catch rates. Because the statistical analysis of catch rates did not attribute much of the decline to tropical cyclones, (and thereby implied “real” declines in biomass), and because in contrast the UVS data indicate relatively stable population sizes, model outputs were unduly influenced by the unlikely hypothesis that falling catch rates are real. The alternative hypothesis that UVS data are closer to the mark and declining catch rates are an artefact of spurious (e.g., cyclone impact) effects is much more probable. Judging by the population size estimates provided by the UVS data, there is no biological problem with the status of coral trout stocks. The estimate of the total number of Plectropomus leopardus on blue zones on the GBR in the mid-1980s (the time of the major UVS series) was 5.34 million legal-sized fish, or about 8400 t exploitable biomass, with an 2 additional 3350 t in green zones (using the current zoning which was introduced on 1 July 2004). For the offshore regions favoured by commercial fishers, the figure was about 4.90 million legal-sized fish in blue zones, or about 7700 t exploitable biomass. There is, however, an economic problem, as indicated by relatively low catch rates and anecdotal information provided by commercial fishers. The costs of fishing the GBR by hook and line (the only method compatible with the GBR’s high conservation status) are high, and commercial fishers are unable to operate profitably when catch rates are depressed (e.g., from a tropical cyclone). The economic problem is compounded by the effect of social learning in coral trout, whereby catch rates fall rapidly if fishers keep returning to the same fishing locations. In response, commercial fishers tend to spread out over the GBR, including the Far Northern and Swains Regions which are far from port and incur higher travel costs. The economic problem provides some logic to a reduction in the TACC. Such a reduction during good times, such as when the fishery is rebounding after a major tropical cyclone, could provide a net benefit to the fishery, as it would provide a margin of stock safety and make the fishery more economically robust by providing higher catch rates during subsequent periods of depressed catches. During hard times when catch rates are low (e.g., shortly after a major tropical cyclone), a change to the TACC would have little effect as even a reduced TACC would not come close to being filled. Quota adjustments based on catch rates should take account of long-term trends in order to mitigate variability and cyclone effects in data.

Synthesis of Silica Vesicles with Controlled Entrance Size for High Loading, Sustained Release, and Cellular Delivery of Therapeutical Proteins

A rationally designed two-step synthesis of silica vesicles is developed with the formation of vesicular structure in the first step and fine control over the entrance size by tuning the temperature in the second step. The silica vesicles have a uniform size of ≈50 nm with excellent cellular uptake performance. When the entrance size is equal to the wall thickness, silica vesicles after hydrophobic modification show the highest loading amount (563 mg/g) towards Ribonuclease A with a sustained release behavior. Consequently, the silica vesicles are excellent nano-carriers for cellular delivery applications of therapeutical biomolecules.

The effect of 3-5-6 TPA on fruit drop and fruit size in the lychee (Litchi Chinensis) cultivars 'Fay Zee Siu' (feizixiao) , 'Kaimana', 'Kwai Mai Pink', 'Souey Tung' and 'Tai So' (Mauritus)

Fruit drop can cause major yield losses in Australian lychee orchards, the severity varying with cultivar and season. Research in China, South Africa and Israel has demonstrated the potential for synthetic auxins used as foliar sprays to reduce fruit drop in lychee. Trials tested the efficacy of the synthetic auxin 3-5-6 trichloro-2-phridyl-oxyacetic acid (TPA) applied as a foliar spray at 50 ppm on fruit drop and fruit size on the cultivars ‘Fay Zee Siu’, ‘Kaimana’, ‘Kwai Mai Pink’, ‘Souey Tung’ and ‘Tai So’. TPA reduced fruit drop when applied to fruit greater than 12 mm in length but increased fruit drop when fruit were smaller. Fruit size at the time of application had less effect on the response than the level of natural fruit drop. When natural fruit drop was high, TPA significantly reduced it; by up to 18.7 in ‘Fay Zee Siu’, 37.1 in ‘Kaimana’, 39.8 in ‘Kwai Mai Pink’, 15.1 in ‘Souey Tung’ and 7.7 in ‘Tai So’. TPA was less effective when natural fruit drop was low. TPA increased the number of large fruit and frequently increased the number of small fruit at harvest. The small fruit were associated with an increase in the retention of fruit with poorly developed (chicken tongue) seed. Average fruit size was generally larger (up to 12.7 in ‘Souey Tung’ and 22 in ‘Tai So’) with TPA applications.

The shifting influence of drought and heat stress for crops in Northeast Australia

Characterization of drought environment types (ETs) has proven useful for breeding crops for drought-prone regions. Here we consider how changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations will affect drought ET frequencies in sorghum and wheat systems of Northeast Australia. We also modify APSIM (the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) to incorporate extreme heat effects on grain number and weight, and then evaluate changes in the occurrence of heat-induced yield losses of more than 10, as well as the co-occurrence of drought and heat. More than six million simulations spanning representative locations, soil types, management systems, and 33 climate projections led to three key findings. First, the projected frequency of drought decreased slightly for most climate projections for both sorghum and wheat, but for different reasons. In sorghum, warming exacerbated drought stresses by raising the atmospheric vapor pressure deficit and reducing transpiration efficiency (TE), but an increase in TE due to elevated CO2 more than offset these effects. In wheat, warming reduced drought stress during spring by hastening development through winter and reducing exposure to terminal drought. Elevated CO2 increased TE but also raised radiation use efficiency and overall growth rates and water use, thereby offsetting much of the drought reduction from warming. Second, adding explicit effects of heat on grain number and grain size often switched projected yield impacts from positive to negative. Finally, although average yield losses associated with drought will remain generally higher than for heat stress for the next half century, the relative importance of heat is steadily growing. This trend, as well as the likely high degree of genetic variability in heat tolerance, suggests that more emphasis on heat tolerance is warranted in breeding programs. At the same time, work on drought tolerance should continue with an emphasis on drought that co-occurs with extreme heat. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

The shifting influence of drought and heat stress for crops in Northeast Australia

Characterization of drought environment types (ETs) has proven useful for breeding crops for drought-prone regions. Here we consider how changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations will affect drought ET frequencies in sorghum and wheat systems of Northeast Australia. We also modify APSIM (the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) to incorporate extreme heat effects on grain number and weight, and then evaluate changes in the occurrence of heat-induced yield losses of more than 10%, as well as the co-occurrence of drought and heat. More than six million simulations spanning representative locations, soil types, management systems, and 33 climate projections led to three key findings. First, the projected frequency of drought decreased slightly for most climate projections for both sorghum and wheat, but for different reasons. In sorghum, warming exacerbated drought stresses by raising the atmospheric vapor pressure deficit and reducing transpiration efficiency (TE), but an increase in TE due to elevated CO2 more than offset these effects. In wheat, warming reduced drought stress during spring by hastening development through winter and reducing exposure to terminal drought. Elevated CO2 increased TE but also raised radiation use efficiency and overall growth rates and water use, thereby offsetting much of the drought reduction from warming. Second, adding explicit effects of heat on grain number and grain size often switched projected yield impacts from positive to negative. Finally, although average yield losses associated with drought will remain generally higher than for heat stress for the next half century, the relative importance of heat is steadily growing. This trend, as well as the likely high degree of genetic variability in heat tolerance, suggests that more emphasis on heat tolerance is warranted in breeding programs. At the same time, work on drought tolerance should continue with an emphasis on drought that co-occurs with extreme heat. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Fine root dry matter relative to mango (Mangifera indica) tree scion size grafted on size-controlling rootstocks, is negatively related to scion growth rate

Knowledge of root dry matter (DM) allocation, in relation to differing vigour conferred by rootstock cultivars, is required to understand the structural relationships between rootstock and scion. We investigated the mass of roots (four size classes up to 23 mm diameter) by coring proximal to five polyembryonic mango rootstock cultivars known to differ in their effects on the vigour and productivity of scion cultivar ‘Kensington Pride’, in a field trial of 13-year-old trees. Significant differences in fine (<0.64 and 0.64–1.88 mm diameter) and small (1.88–7.50 mm) root DM contents were observed between rootstock cultivars. There was a complex relationship between the amount of feeder (fine and small size classes) roots and scion size (trunk cross sectional area, TCSA), with intermediate size trees on rootstock MYP having the most feeder roots, while the smallest trees, on the rootstock Vellaikulamban had the least of these roots. Across rootstock cultivars, tree vigour (TCSA growth rate) was negatively and significantly related to the ratio of fine root DM/scion TCSA, suggesting this may be a useful indicator of the vigour that different rootstocks confer on the scion. In contrast non-ratio root DM and scion TCSA results had no significant relationships. The significant rootstock effects on orchard root growth and tree size could not be predicted from earlier differences in nursery seedling vigour, nor did seedling vigour predict root DM allocation.