Estimating and forecasting generalized fractional Long memory stochastic volatility models

In recent years fractionally differenced processes have received a great deal of attention due to its flexibility in financial applications with long memory. This paper considers a class of models generated by Gegenbauer polynomials, incorporating the long memory in stochastic volatility (SV) components in order to develop the General Long Memory SV (GLMSV) model. We examine the statistical properties of the new model, suggest using the spectral likelihood estimation for long memory processes, and investigate the finite sample properties via Monte Carlo experiments. We apply the model to three exchange rate return series. Overall, the results of the out-of-sample forecasts show the adequacy of the new GLMSV model.

Robust fitting of Zernike polynomials to noisy point clouds defined over connected domains of arbitrary shape

A new method for fitting a series of Zernike polynomials to point clouds defined over connected domains of arbitrary shape defined within the unit circle is presented in this work. The method is based on the application of machine learning fitting techniques by constructing an extended training set in order to ensure the smooth variation of local curvature over the whole domain. Therefore this technique is best suited for fitting points corresponding to ophthalmic lenses surfaces, particularly progressive power ones, in non-regular domains. We have tested our method by fitting numerical and real surfaces reaching an accuracy of 1 micron in elevation and 0.1 D in local curvature in agreement with the customary tolerances in the ophthalmic manufacturing industry.

E-polynomials of the SL(2, C)-character varieties of surface groups

We compute the E-polynomials of the moduli spaces of representations of the fundamental group of a once-punctured surface of any genus into SL(2, C), for any possible holonomy around the puncture. We follow the geometric technique introduced in [12], based on stratifying the space of representations, and on the analysis of the behavior of the E-polynomial under fibrations.

Generalized isotropic Lipkin-Meshkov-Glick models: ground state entanglement and quantum entropies

We introduce a new class of generalized isotropic Lipkin–Meshkov–Glick models with su(m+1) spin and long-range non-constant interactions, whose non-degenerate ground state is a Dicke state of su(m+1) type. We evaluate in closed form the reduced density matrix of a block of Lspins when the whole system is in its ground state, and study the corresponding von Neumann and Rényi entanglement entropies in the thermodynamic limit. We show that both of these entropies scale as a log L when L tends to infinity, where the coefficient a is equal to (m  −  k)/2 in the ground state phase with k vanishing magnon densities. In particular, our results show that none of these generalized Lipkin–Meshkov–Glick models are critical, since when L-->∞ their Rényi entropy R_q becomes independent of the parameter q. We have also computed the Tsallis entanglement entropy of the ground state of these generalized su(m+1) Lipkin–Meshkov–Glick models, finding that it can be made extensive by an appropriate choice of its parameter only when m-k≥3. Finally, in the su(3) case we construct in detail the phase diagram of the ground state in parameter space, showing that it is determined in a simple way by the weights of the fundamental representation of su(3). This is also true in the su(m+1) case; for instance, we prove that the region for which all the magnon densities are non-vanishing is an (m  +  1)-simplex in R^m whose vertices are the weights of the fundamental representation of su(m+1).

Topologies on groups related to the theory of shape and generalized coverings

El presente trabajo consiste en dos partes diferenciadas: la principal de ellas (Cap tulos 1 y 2) est a dedicada a introducir estructura adicional en grupos que aparecen de manera natural en el contexto de la teor a de la forma. En la segunda parte (Cap tulo 3), se plantea c omo generalizar la teor a de espacios recubridores y, en particular, se propone una l nea de trabajo relacionada con la teor a de la forma. El punto de partida de esta tesis doctoral son los trabajos [25, 26, 68, 69, 70] en los que los autores introducen y utilizan algunas ultram etricas en el conjunto de los mor smos shape entre dos espacios topol ogicos punteados. En particular, si el dominio es (S1; 1); la construcci on realizada en [68] permite explicitar una ultram etrica en el grupo shape 1(X; x0) de un espacio m etrico compacto X; como ya fue observado en [69] y [80]. Si el espacio no es m etrico compacto, la construcci on nos lleva a utilizar el concepto de ultram etrica generalizada, en el sentido de Priess-Crampe y Ribenboim [78, 79]. En [7], D. K. Biss introduce la idea de topologizar el grupo fundamental de un espacio, de forma que la topolog a en 1(X; x0) sea una topolog a de grupo que permita detectar la (no) existencia de un recubridor universal para X: La forma de proceder sugerida es tomar en 1(X; x0)la toplog a cociente inducida por la topolog a compacto-abierta en el espacio de lazos (X; x0): Sin embargo, hay algunos errores en el art culo mencionado: en concreto, el error relacionado con el presente trabajo fue puesto de mani esto por P. Fabel en [33], mostrando que, en general, la operaci on de grupo en 1(X; x0)con la topolog a cociente no es continua. Utilizando un punto de vista similar, varios autores han tratado de dotar al grupo fundamental con una topolog a, de forma que 1(X; x0) sea un grupo topol ogico y la proyecci on q (X; x0){u100000} 1(X; x0)sea continua...

Bayesian estimation in generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models

Esta tesis doctoral nace con el propósito de entender, analizar y sobre todo modelizar el comportamiento estadístico de las series financieras. En este sentido, se puede afirmar que los modelos que mejor recogen las especiales características de estas series son los modelos de heterocedasticidad condicionada en tiempo discreto,si los intervalos de tiempo en los que se recogen los datos lo permiten, y en tiempo continuo si tenemos datos diarios o datos intradía. Con esta finalidad, en esta tesis se proponen distintos estimadores bayesianos para la estimación de los parámetros de los modelos GARCH en tiempo discreto (Bollerslev (1986)) y COGARCH en tiempo continuo (Kluppelberg et al. (2004)). En el capítulo 1 se introducen las características de las series financieras y se presentan los modelos ARCH, GARCH y COGARCH, así como sus principales propiedades. Mandelbrot (1963) destacó que las series financieras no presentan estacionariedad y que sus incrementos no presentan autocorrelación, aunque sus cuadrados sí están correlacionados. Señaló también que la volatilidad que presentan no es constante y que aparecen clusters de volatilidad. Observó la falta de normalidad de las series financieras, debida principalmente a su comportamiento leptocúrtico, y también destacó los efectos estacionales que presentan las series, analizando como se ven afectadas por la época del año o el día de la semana. Posteriormente Black (1976) completó la lista de características especiales incluyendo los denominados leverage effects relacionados con como las fluctuaciones positivas y negativas de los precios de los activos afectan a la volatilidad de las series de forma distinta.

Multivariate orthogonal polynomials and integrable systems

Multivariate orthogonal polynomials in D real dimensions are considered from the perspective of the Cholesky factorization of a moment matrix. The approach allows for the construction of corresponding multivariate orthogonal polynomials, associated second kind functions, Jacobi type matrices and associated three term relations and also Christoffel-Darboux formulae. The multivariate orthogonal polynomials, their second kind functions and the corresponding Christoffel-Darboux kernels are shown to be quasi-determinants as well as Schur complements of bordered truncations of the moment matrix; quasi-tau functions are introduced. It is proven that the second kind functions are multivariate Cauchy transforms of the multivariate orthogonal polynomials. Discrete and continuous deformations of the measure lead to Toda type integrable hierarchy, being the corresponding flows described through Lax and Zakharov-Shabat equations; bilinear equations are found. Varying size matrix nonlinear partial difference and differential equations of the 2D Toda lattice type are shown to be solved by matrix coefficients of the multivariate orthogonal polynomials. The discrete flows, which are shown to be connected with a Gauss-Borel factorization of the Jacobi type matrices and its quasi-determinants, lead to expressions for the multivariate orthogonal polynomials and their second kind functions in terms of shifted quasi-tau matrices, which generalize to the multidimensional realm, those that relate the Baker and adjoint Baker functions to ratios of Miwa shifted tau-functions in the 1D scenario. In this context, the multivariate extension of the elementary Darboux transformation is given in terms of quasi-determinants of matrices built up by the evaluation, at a poised set of nodes lying in an appropriate hyperplane in R^D, of the multivariate orthogonal polynomials. The multivariate Christoffel formula for the iteration of m elementary Darboux transformations is given as a quasi-determinant. It is shown, using congruences in the space of semi-infinite matrices, that the discrete and continuous flows are intimately connected and determine nonlinear partial difference-differential equations that involve only one site in the integrable lattice behaving as a Kadomstev-Petviashvili type system. Finally, a brief discussion of measures with a particular linear isometry invariance and some of its consequences for the corresponding multivariate polynomials is given. In particular, it is shown that the Toda times that preserve the invariance condition lay in a secant variety of the Veronese variety of the fixed point set of the linear isometry.