51 resultados para system dynamics

em Chinese Academy of Sciences Institutional Repositories Grid Portal


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GCTE(全球变化和陆地生态系统),作为IGBP的核心计划之一,其目的是研究陆地生态系统与全球气候变化及人类社会经济和土地利用改变之间相互作用的耦合机理关系,预测生态系统结构、功能的未来变化。其中,植物个体水平的生理生态学模型研究是GCTE中必不可少的重要环节,它不仅可以揭示植物在个体水平上对全球变化的动态响应机制,而且可通过揭示大尺度响应所隐含的微观生物学机理,为大尺度研究提供重要的生理学参数和规律,在全球变化各尺度研究中发挥着不可替代的作用。本文主要围绕植物个体的生理生态学模型开展了如下研究:在开顶式气室CO2倍增大豆生长实验基础上,建立描述植物主要生理过程的生理生态模型,分析植物个体的光合作用、气孔传导度、蒸腾作用以及水分利用效率在全球场变化下的动态响应机制;在此基础上,建立起以统计性天气模型驱动的植物个体生长发育系统动力学模型,通过敏感度分析探讨植物个体的生理生态特性,如光合、呼吸、绿色及非绿色生物量等,对全球变化,特别是对CO2增加,气温升高及降水改变共同作用的响应机制;针对固氮植物的特点,将前一模型发展成为基于共生固氮和同化过程相互作用机制的植物个体生理生态系统动力学模型,模拟不同CO2浓度、气候变化以及固氮与不固氮条件下植物个体生物量的动态响应,并分析CO2浓度、气候条件和是否具固氮能力在对植物生长发育影响方面的相互作用;以中间锦鸡儿为研究材料进行水分控制实验,观测水分对植物同化物分配等过程的影响;将水分利用效率模型应用到NECT样带的主要植物种,得出各植物种的描述其水分利用效率特性的参数,结合样带上各植被类型的结构特征,得到沿样带各植被类型在植物种类组成方面的水分利用效率参数;应用系统聚类分析、因子分析等多元统计方法对样带上锡林河流域122种植物的化学成分与植物类群和所处生境的关系进行了定量分析。结果表明: 1)CO2倍增情况下,净光合速率提高45%,其中光量子效率显著增加,而CO2传导系数略有下降;气孔传导度、蒸腾速率下降约30%;水分利用效率随CO2浓度增加几乎呈线性增长,倍增后提高近一倍。(当气温,水分适宜,光合有效辐射为1000μmol photons m-2 s-1); 2)在北京地区仅CO2倍增而气候条件维持现状的情况下可导致大豆总生物量峰值提高70%,绿色部分提高56%,其中,全生育期内总净光合量增加,而单位干重的暗呼吸速率下降;由于受同化物分配中物候因素的影响,绿色生物量比总生物量提前10日左右到达其峰值。 3)CO2浓度增加和具固氮能力在模拟范围内对植物生长均产生正效应;而在水分为植物生长限制因子的干旱半干旱地区,降水增加对植物生长产生正效应,气温升高则具负效应; 4)随着C供给条件的好转,具固氮能力对植物生长的影响增强;反之随植物吸收N能力的提高,C供给对植物生长的作用加剧。 5)气温、降水在对植物生长发育影响方面,随着一方条件的好转,另一方对植物生长产生的效应增强; 6)具固氮能力对植物生长的正效应随气候条件的好转而增强,气候变化对植物生长的影响随植物具备了固氮能力而加剧; 7)气候条件越恶劣,如在此半干旱区变得更为干旱,CO2浓度增加对植物生长的正效应越加显著;且随CO2浓度的增加,气候因子的效应逐渐减弱。这主要是因CO2增加提高了植物个体的水分利用效率,从而使得CO2的正效应在水分胁迫下更为明显;同时由于水分利用效率的提高,使得植物个体抵御和适应外界环境变化,特别是由气温、降水改变导致的水分条件变化,的能力得到增强。 8)锦鸡儿水分生理生态实验的初步结果表明,土壤水分状况影响着植物的同化物分配,随着水分胁迫的加剧,同化物分配向根部集中,植物的根冠比增加。 9)沿样带水分递减梯度,植被类型在植物种类组成方面的反映水分利用效率特性的参数kv逐渐增加,从而显示出随着水分条件的不足,植被类型中耐旱品种,尤其是C4种增加;人为活动干扰,主要是对草场等的过度利用而导致的盐渍化、沙化,使得退化了的植被类型中k_v值显著提高,表明原有的植物种逐渐被耐旱、耐盐碱的品种,特别是C4植物所代替;在样带动上,这种由于人为活动干扰所引起的植被类型在植物种类组成方面反映水分利用效率特性的参数kv的变化明显大于因样带水分梯度改变而带来的变化。 10)锡林河流域草原植物化学成分一方面与植物类群有关,受自身历史演化的决定,另一方面更受到所处生境条件的极度大影响和制约。其中,禾本科、豆科植物分别具有明显的化学成分特征;撂荒地群落与自然群落中植物、沙质与非沙质生境中植物化学成分差异较显著;因子分析中认为存在大量元素与微量元素两个公共因子,豆科与禾本科相比,豆科植物因其固氮能力,所含大量元素水平较高,而禾本科植物因细胞壁硅质化,含微量元素稍高;沙质生境因其养分贫瘠,植物的大量与微量元素均较非沙质生境中的低;特别是本区地带性土壤-栗钙土与特异性生境沙带中的疏林沙土相比,疏林沙土上植物大量与微量元素含量较栗钙土区植物明显偏低。

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水资源是人类赖以生存和发展的最重要的物质资源之一,水资源的可持续利用是实现社会经济可持续发展的必要前提。随着人口的增加,社会经济的发展和人民生活水平的提高,青岛市水资源供需矛盾进一步凸显。本文在分析青岛市水资源利用现状的基础上,运行系统动力学方法,研究了青岛市水资源复合系统可持续利用状况,主要结论如下: (1)采用系统动力学Vensim-PLE软件,以水资源供需平衡为核心,建立了青岛市水资源-社会-经济-生态环境复合系统动力学模型,并以青岛市2000~2008年的统计资料作为基础数据检验了模型的有效性。为了提高模拟效果,分析了模型主要参数的敏感度,发现工业供水比例对模拟结果影响最大,生活供水比例、第三产业供水比例、回用水工业供水比例、污水处理投资系数及回用水生态环境供水比例等参数的敏感度依次减小。 (2)运用所建立的系统动力学模型模拟趋势条件下青岛市2009~2030年的水资源利用及需求状况。结果表明,现状趋势方案下青岛市2009~2030年的总需水量快速增加,2020年、2030年的总需水量分别为96190.6万吨、137300万吨;水资源供需差额急速增加,缺水程度越来越大,到2030年缺水程度达到0.5055;随着青岛市污水处理能力的提高,污水回用量增加,从3000万吨左右增加到接近10000万吨;现状趋势条件下2009~2030年青岛市GDP值快速增长,人口承载力逐渐上升,但上升趋势逐渐趋缓。 (3)假设了5种水资源发展方案:现状趋势发展型,提高污水处理投资系数,提高海水淡化产量,调整各行业用水定额,调整产业结构。用建立的系统动力学模型模拟分析了在这5种方案下的青岛市水资源可持续利用能力。综合比较这5种方案的优缺点,提出优化方案。优化方案1:将污水处理投资系数由0.001提高至0.003;从2009年起海水淡

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在综合分析米脂县农地承载力系统结构、关系的基础上,以1998年为起始年建立系统动力学模型,根据米脂县社会经济发展现状及未来规划,设定了3种不同的方案和3种营养标准,模拟了米脂县2008-2028年农地人口承载力趋势,通过各方案比较,得出了较优的方案,最后提出了提高该地区农地承载力的政策建议。

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Tongji Univ, Inst Dev Study, Syst Engn Soc China, Comm Syst Dynam, Syst Dynam Soc, China Chapter, Shanghai Inst Foreign Trade, Syst Dynam Soc, Chapters Asia Pacific Area

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在带式输送机动态过程仿真的基础上 ,以多驱动带式输送机系统为对象 ,对可控多驱动系统进行动力学分析·采用基于功率跟踪的方法 ,在合理的启动曲线的基础上 ,将第一驱动按合理启动曲线启动 ,其他驱动顺次跟踪第一驱动功率的控制策略·基于有限元方法建立了系统的动力学方程 ,提出了可控启动过程的动态分析算法 ,开发了动态设计软件BCD 2 0 ,通过对实际系统的仿真 ,证明了算法和软件的正确性·

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采用多种科学预测方法与财政经济实际相结合的方式建立了一个综合的财政收支系统动力学模型.这个模型集中了时间序列分析模型,灰色系统预测模型的参数综合性强和系统动力学模型结构分明,用动态反馈方式预测系统发展变化的特点,对东北两大城市预算内财政收支“八五”计划指标进行了全面定量的预测与分析,得到了很好的应用效果。

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A dynamic model is built up by means of system dynamics method for the development offorest resources in Liaoning province.Prediction and strategy research are made for the fo-rest ecology and timber production in 2000 in Liaoning.The impactions of various designson the development of forest resources are understood by adjusting different parameters andadding disturbances to the model.Various parameters are determined according to the dataprovided by Land Dept.and Forestry Dept.of Liaoning province,the data of provincialforest statistics in 1978 is taken as the original values for running model,which is perfor-med on IBM PC/X7 computer in DYNAMO language of system dynamics.

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Based on a viewpoint of an intricate system demanding high, this thesis advances a new concept that urban sustainable development stratagem is a high harmony and amalgamation among urban economy, geo-environment and tech-capital, and the optimum field of which lies in their mutual matching part, which quantitatively demarcates the optimum value field of urban sustainable development and establishes the academic foundation to describe and analyze sustainable development stratagem. And establishes a series of cause-effect model, a analysissitus model, flux model as well as its recognizing mode for urban system are established by the approach of System Dynamics, which can distinguish urban states by its polarity of entropy flows. At the same time, the matter flow, energy flow and information flow which exist in the course of urban development are analyzed based on the input/output (I/O) relationships of urban economy. And a new type of I/O relationships, namely new resources-environment account, are established, in which both resource and environment factors are considered. All above that settles a theoretic foundation for resource economy and environment economy as well as quantitative relationships of inter-function between urban development and geoenvironment, and gives a new approach to analyze natinal economy and urban sustainable development. Based on an analysis of the connection between resource-environmental construct of geoenvironment and urban economy development, the Geoenvironmental Carrying Capability (GeCC) is analyzed. Further more, a series of definitions and formula about the Gross Carrying Capability (GCC), Structure Carrying Capability (SCC) and Impulse Carrying Capability (ICC) is achieved, which can be applied to evaluate both the quality and capacity of geoenvironment and thereunder to determine the scale and velocity for urban development. A demonstrative study of the above is applied to Beihai city (Guangxi province, PRC), and the numerical value laws between the urban development and its geoenvironment is studied by the I/O relationship in the urban economy as following: · the relationships between the urban economic development and land use as well as consumption of underground water, metal mineral, mineral energy source, metalloid mineral and other geologic resources. · the relationships between urban economy and waste output such as industrial "3 waste", dust, rubbish and living polluted water as well as the restricting impact of both resource-environmental factors and tech-capital on the urban grow. · Optimization and control analysis on the reciprocity between urban economy and its geoenvironment are discussed, and sensitive factors and its order of the urban geoenvironmental resources, wastes and economic sections are fixed, which can be applied to determine the urban industrial structure, scale, grow rate matching with its geoenvironment and tech-capital. · a sustainable development stratagem for the city is suggested.

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The modeling of petroleum flow path (petroleum charging) and the detail of corresponding software development are presented in this paper, containing principle of petroleum charging, quantitative method, and practical modeling in two oil fields. The Modeling of Petroleum Flow Path is based on the result of basin modeling, according to the principle of petroleum migrating along the shortest path from the source to trap, Petroleum System Dynamics (Prof. Wu Chonglong, 1998), the concept of Petroleum Migration and Dynamic Accumulation (Zhou Donyan, Li Honhui, 2002), etc. The simulation is done combing with all parameters of basin, and considering the flow potential, non-uniformity of source and porous layer. It's the extending of basin modeling, but not belong to it. It is a powerful simulating tool of petroleum system, and can express quantitatively every kind of geology elements of a petroleum basin, and can recuperate dynamically the geology processes with 3D graphics. At result, we can give a result that the petroleum flow shows itself the phenomena of main path, and without using the special theory such as deflection flow in fractures(Tian Kaiming, 1989, 1994, Zhang Fawang, Hou Xingwei, 1998), and flow potential(England, 1987). The contour map of petroleum flow quantitative show clearly where the coteau - dividing slot is, and which convergence region are the main flow path of petroleum, and where is the favorable play of petroleum. The farsighted trap can be determined if there are enough information about structural diagram and can be evaluated, such as the entrapment extent, spill point, area, oil column thickness, etc. Making full use of the result of basin modeling with this new tool, the critical moment and scheme of the petroleum generation and expulsion can be showed clearly. It's powerful analysis tool for geologist.

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To attempt to control the quantum state of a physical system with a femtosecond two-colour laser field, a model for the two-level system is analysed as a first step. We investigate the coherent control of the two-colour laser pulses propagating in a two-level medium. Based on calculating the influence of the laser field with various laser parameters on the electron dynamics, it is found the electronic state can be changed up and down by choosing the appropriate laser pulses and the coherent control of the two-colour laser pulses can substantially modify the behaviour of the electronic dynamics: a quicker change of two states can be produced even for small pulse duration. Moreover, the oscillatory structures around the resonant frequency and the propagation features of the laser pulses depend sensitively on the relative phase of the two-colour laser pulses. Finally, the influence of a finite lifetime of the upper level is discussed in brief.

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Spin dynamics in the first and second subbands have been examined simultaneously by time resolved Kerr rotation in a single-barrier heterostructure of a 500 nm thick GaAs absorption layer. By scanning the wavelengths of the probe and pump beams towards the short wavelength in the zero magnetic field, the spin coherent time T-2(1)* in the 1st subband E-1 decreases in accordance with the D'yakonov-Perel' (DP) spin decoherence mechanism. Meanwhile, the spin coherence time T-2(2)* in the 2nd subband E-2 remains very low at wavelengths longer than 810 nm, and then is dramatically enhanced afterwards. At 803 nm, T-2(2)* (450 ps) becomes ten times longer than T-2(1)* (50 ps). A new feature has been discovered at the wavelength of 811nm under the bias of -0.3V (807nm under the bias of -0.6V) that the spin coherence times (T-2(1)* and T-2(2)*) and the effective g* factors (vertical bar g*(E-1)vertical bar and vertical bar g*(E-2)vertical bar) all display a sudden change, presumably due to the "resonant" spin exchange coupling between two spin opposite bands. Copyright (C) EPLA, 2008.

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We report on time-resolved Kerr rotation measurements of spin coherence of electrons in the first excited subband of a high-mobility low-density two-dimensional electron system in a GaAs/Al0.35Ga0.65As heterostructure. While the transverse spin lifetime (T-2(*)) of electrons decreases monotonically with increasing magnetic field, it has a nonmonotonic dependence on the temperature and reaches a peak value of 596 ps at 36 K, indicating the effect of intersubband electron-electron scattering on the electron-spin relaxation.