Reduction-Based Model Updating of a Scaled Offshore Platform Structure

This paper attempts to develop a reduction-based model updating technique for jacket offshore platform structure. A reduced model is used instead of the direct finite-element model of the real structure in order to circumvent such difficulties as huge degrees of freedom and incomplete experimental data that are usually civil engineers' trouble during the model updating. The whole process consists of three steps: reduction of FE model, the first model updating to minimize the reduction error, and the second model updating to minimize the modeling error of the reduced model and the real structure. According to the performance of jacket platforms, a local-rigidity assumption is employed to obtain the reduced model. The technique is applied in a downscale model of a four-legged offshore platform where its effectiveness is well proven. Furthermore, a comparison between the real structure and its numerical models in the following model validation shows that the updated models have good approximation to the real structure. Besides, some difficulties in the field of model updating are also discussed.

若尔盖湿地公路对两栖类的生态影响

本文考察了若尔盖高寒泥炭湿地公路对高原林蛙（Rana kukunoris）、倭蛙（Narorana pleskei）和岷山蟾蜍（Bufo minshanicus）的生态影响。分析了公路对两栖动物空间分布和栖息地利用的影响，并用IBM模型探讨其可能作用机制，考察了两栖动物公路死亡的季节差异及影响公路死亡空间分布的景观因素。最后通过对若尔盖高寒湿地两栖动物陆地核心栖息地的分析，为若尔盖路域栖息地的管理提供依据。 1. 对公路周边6个沼泽水凼群进行了调查，每个样地设置5条样线（距离公路10m、20m、50m、100m和150m）。调查表明，在繁殖季节(5月)，距离公路距离对高原林蛙和倭蛙的相对数量都有显著作用，其效应明显大于其他各项栖息地环境参数。公路导致高原林蛙和倭蛙在公路周边种群密度降低，其相对数量从距离公路100m处到公路边缘一直呈现逐渐降低的趋势。在繁殖季节，若尔盖高寒湿地的公路生态影响域大约在100-150m之间，这一距离远远大于森林栖息地中公路对两栖类的生态影响域（35-40 m）。 在繁殖后期（9月），对公路周边16个草地样点的样线调查表明，公路对周边高原林蛙和倭蛙密度分布并未造成显著影响。 2. 二次模型的拟合表明繁殖季节高原林蛙和倭蛙在公路周边的密度分布符合钟型曲线。前人对森林公路两侧两栖类分布的研究也显示了类似的规律。我们通过基于个体的模型，模拟在了公路边缘100单位距离内的栖息地空间，栖息地环境质量呈梯度变化，动物个体在其中通过随机运动寻找适宜的栖息地。拟合结果表明，动物个体仅仅依照简单的运动规则寻找适宜栖息地，这种活动就可以导致公路周边栖息地中的动物分布曲线出现3个局部峰。公路周边两栖动物的钟型分布曲线可能仅仅是个体寻找适宜栖息地过程中出现的临时性群体分布模式。 3. 在若尔盖高寒湿地，公路交通造成了大量两栖类死亡。但是公路两栖类动物死亡的季节分布很不均匀：5月、8月和9月死亡数量很高，而7月和10月死亡数量却很低。这种季节性差异和两栖类各个生活史阶段的迁移运动有密切的关系。利用景观参数的逻辑斯蒂回归模型显示，距离公路1000-2000m范围内的湿草地比例对三种两栖类公路死亡概率均有很强的贡献。湿草地这一栖息地类型分类中有大量的沼泽水体，是两栖类重要的繁殖点和取食点。两栖类公路死亡概率湿草地的关系从一个侧面表明，要维持一个区域较高的两栖类种群数量，需要1000-2000m半径范围内存在大面积的湿草地。 4. 高原林蛙和岷山蟾蜍不同性别和年龄个体分布点的水体距离存在显著差异。不同种类、年龄的两栖类分布点距离水体距离的差异可能是由于对水体的依赖性造成的。而相同种类、年龄段的个体中，高原林蛙雌性、岷山蟾蜍亚成体和雌性的体重与分布点距水体距离有显著负相关，这可能是因为体重更大的个体对水体的依赖性更弱。考虑到过大的陆地核心栖息地面积在实际保护工作中存在操作上的困难，因此我们认为可以以水体周边90%个体的分布区为低限确定3种两栖类的最小陆地核心栖息地。但是，在同样的水体距离-两栖类密度分布格局下，水体的面积和分形参数对最小陆地核心栖息地半径的确定有一定影响。 Ecological effects of alpine wetland road on Rana kukunoris, Narorana pleskei, Bufo minshanicus was studied in Zoige wetland. The effects of road on distribution of amphibians and its possible underline mechanism was discussed based on empirical data and computer simulation. Road killed amphibians was surveyed in different season and those landscape factor which could have impact on road killing distribution was analyses. Core terrestrial habitat of amphibians in Zoige wetland was discussed in the consideration of conservation management. 1. Six pool groups was investigated in breeding season (May) of R. kukunoris, N. pleskei. Five transects at distance of 10m, 20m, 50m, 100m and 150m from road edge was surveyed in each pool groups. There was a significant effects of distance from road edge on relative counts of R. kukunoris, N. pleskei, which is much important than effects of other environmental factors. Road caused the density of R. kukunoris, N. pleskei decreased from distance of 100m from road to 10m from road. Road ecological effect zone of alpine wetland for amphibians is about 100-150m. It is much wider than those of forest roads, which is about 35-40m. However, studies on 16 grassland near road showed no significant effect of road on amphibians after breeding season (Sep.). 2. Quadratic model fit indicated that the distribution of R. kukunoris and N. Pleskei followed a hump like curve. Previous studies on forest road showed similar results. A 100×100 habitat with gradual environment besides road was simulated with a individual-based model, and animal seek for suitable habitat with stochastic locomotion in it. Simulation results indicated that 3 density peak of animal distribution can emergent followed a simply rules. The hump like density cure could be a temporal swarm pattern during the process of individual seeking for habitat. 3. Road traffic caused mass death of amphibians in Zoige wetland. There was much road killed amphibians in May, Aug and Sep than those in July and Oct. The fluctuation of road kill could be related with migration of amphibians between seasons. Logistic regression of landscape variables indicated that wet grassland in 1000-2000m is essential to predict the probability of road kill. Wet grassland is an important breeding and forage habitat for amphibians. It also indicated that mass wet grassland in 1000-2000m is essential for maintain a big amphibian population. 4. There was significant differences among distance from aquatic site of subadults, female and males of R. kukunoris and B. Minshanicus. Possibly, it was because of their dependence on water. There was a significant negative relationship between distance from aquatic site and individuals body mass. Estimates of core habitat that are too large may make it difficult to establish protective regulations. The smallest suitable terrestrial core habitats were defined as the terrestrial habitats used during migration to and from the wetlands, and for foraging by 90% of any life stage (adults, and subadults) in a season. However, even with the same amphibian distribution pattern along the distance from aquatic sites, the radii of smallest suitable terrestrial core habitats will be varied with the fractal parameters of aquatic site.

地理信息系统与基于个体的空间直观景观模型

In this paper,the development of Individual-based Spatial Explicit Landscape Model was outlined at first.Then several issues,pertaining to develop Individual-based Spatial Explicit Landscape Models,were discussed in details.And at last,the application perspectives of such models were illustrated,including animal movement,plant competition and landscape change.This study has relatively important significance guiding roles in developing Individual-based Spatial Explicit Landscape Model in our country and in landscape management.

Assessing the consequence of land use change on agricultural productivity in China

China's cultivated land has been undergoing dramatic changes along with its rapidly growing economy and population. The impacts of land use transformation on food production at the national scale, however, have been poorly understood due to the lack of detailed spatially explicit agricultural productivity information on cropland change and crop productivity. This study evaluates the effect of the cropland transformation on agricultural productivity by combining the land use data of China for the period of 1990-2000 from TM images and a satellite-based NPP (net primary production) model driven with NOAH/AVHRR data. The cropland area of China has a net increase of 2.79 Mha in the study period, which causes a slightly increased agricultural productivity (6.96 Mt C) at the national level. Although the newly cultivated lands compensated for the loss from urban expansion, but the contribution to production is insignificant because of the low productivity. The decrease in crop production resulting from urban expansion is about twice of that from abandonment of arable lands to forests and grasslands. The productivity of arable lands occupied by urban expansion was 80% higher than that of the newly cultivated lands in the regions with unfavorable natural conditions. Significance of cropland transformation impacts is spatially diverse with the differences in land use change intensity and land productivity across China. The increase in arable land area and yet decline in land quality may reduce the production potential and sustainability of China's agro-ecosystems. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Model analysis of dissolved inorganic phosphorus exports from the Yangtze river to the estuary

In this paper, we estimate the inputs of phosphorus (P) to the Yangtze River Basin and exports of dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP) from the river to the estuary for the period 1970-2003, by using the global NEWS-DIP model. Modeled DIP yields range from 2.5 kg P km(-2) yr(-1) in 1970 to 4.6 kg P km(-2) yr(-1) in 1985, and then dramatically increase to 14.1 kg P km(-2) yr(-1) in 2003. No significant difference between the modeled and measured values at the level of P = 0.05 is observed. The study also demonstrates variable source contributions of P to the modeled DIP during the period 1970-2003. Point sewage P input accounted for approximately 100% in the period 1970-1985 and substantially decreased to 24.8% in 2003. Chemical fertilizer contributed 25.4% of DIP yields in 1986 and increased continuously to 50.3% in 2003, while a stable trend in manure P contribution averaging 22.9% of DIP yields was shown in the same period. The study concludes that P inputs to the Yangtze River Basin and the river DIP export to the estuary have substantially increased during the study period consequence to human pressure.

Comment on: Computation of the optical trapping force using an FDTD based technique

In this comment, problems associated with an oversimplified FDTD based model used for trapping force calculation in recent papers "Computation of the optical trapping force using an FDTD based technique" [Opt. Express 13, 3707 (2005)], and "Rigorous time domain simulation of momentum transfer between light and microscopic particles in optical trapping" [Opt. Express 12, 2220 (2004)] are discussed. A more rigorous model using in Poynting vector is also presented.

基于MDA的TRISO-Model模型管理方法及应用

TRISO-Model(tridimensional integrated software development model)是为处理软件开发的复杂性和动态性而提出的三维集成软件开发方法学,其中,多维模型之间的语义一致性维护以及对模型应用中公共操作部分的重用,提出了基于一致语义进行模型管理的需求.给出了基于MDA(model driven architecture)进行模型管理的方法MDA-MMMethod(MDA based model management method),应用MDA的4层模型管理结构,基于MDA核心标准MOF(meta object facility)所提供的公共语义基础管理模型和元模型,MDA-MMMethod支持各种MDA模型操作标准实现在TRSIO-model应用中的重用.开发了相应的支持系统MDA-MMSystem(MDA based model management system),应用于SoftPM的项目实践中.与传统方法相比,模型应用的开发效率得到了显著提高,同时降低了开发成本.最后,给出了模型融合的应用实例介绍.

不同森林管理预案下友好林业局森林景观的动态变化

Knowledge about cumulative effects of forest management alternatives on forest landscape is required to make forest management decision. In this paper,a spatially explicit landscape model,LANDIS,was applied to simulate forest landscape changes in 200 years under four management alternatives (no cutting,clearcutting,selective cutting I and II) in Youhao Forestry Bureau located in Small Khingan Mountains. APACK was used to calculate distribution area of the representative species and species age cohort for six species. The results showed:1) timber harvest decreased area percentage of representative conifer species,Pinus koraiensis,Picea koraiensis and Picea jezoensis,Larix gmelinii to some extent compared to no cutting. The most influencing cutting mode for the area percentage of Tilia amurensis and Quercus mongolica was selective cutting II,followed by selective cutting I and clearcutting. To the contrast,the change of area percentage of Betula phatyphylla was contrary to the management alternatives; 2) As to species age cohort composition,timber harvest significantly changed age structure,that is,it decreased over-matured age cohort of representative species,and increased seedling and middle-age cohort (B. phatyphylla was not included,because its area percentage of over-mature age cohort was the highest under clearcutting than other three scenarios).

Mechanics of metallic foams: A fractal approach

A fractal approach was proposed to investigate the meso structures and size effect of metallic foams: For a series At foams of different relative densities, the information dimension method was applied to measure meso structures. The generalized sierpinski carpet was introduced to map the meso structures of the foam according to specific dimension. The results show that the fractal-based model can not only reveal the variation of yield strength with specimen size, but also bridge the meso structures and mechanical proper-ties of Al foams directly. Key words: metallic foams; fractal; size effect; meso structures

松嫩平原盐碱化草地模拟模型研究

松嫩平原盐碱化草地是我国著名的天然草场，又是东北西部绿色生态屏障，具有较高的经济价值和重要的生态意义。但是由于各种自然因素和人为因素，致使草地出现退化、沙化和盐渍化，尤其是草地盐渍化加重，生态环境日趋恶化。当地地形条件和气候要素是导致草地原生盐碱化的主要原因。而人类对草地的过度使用，如过度放牧和割草等则是导致草地快速次生盐碱化的主要原因，不仅导致土壤的退化，而且引起草地群落发生次生演替过程。在典型的次生演替过程中，常常可以出现羊革(Aneurolepidium chinense)群落、羊草和一虎尾草(Aneurotepidium chinense＆Chloris virgata)群落、虎尾草(Chloris virgata)群落、碱蓬(Suaeda glauca)群落等演替阶段。 本文试图建立一个过程模型，来模拟草地的生态学过程机理以及人类过度放牧对草地生态系统的影响。本模型包括5个部分：1）主要气候因子的模拟，2)土壤水分动态的模拟，3）土壤盐碱化动态的模拟，4）草地群落生长的模拟，5)不同放牧强度对草地生态系统的影响评价。以下将对各个部分分别描述a 在气候因子模拟子模型中，给出了影响草地生态系统主要气候园子的种类，并重点介绍了如何利用解析法计算太阳辐射，包括平地和坡地的理论可照时间，天文辐射日总量以及总辐射量。利用改进后的Penman式，模拟了全国的潜在蒸散量，与900多个气象站点的水面蒸发观测资料进行了验证，模拟结果很好。 利用面向对象技术，将土壤水分动力学模型与水分平衡模型相结合，建立了土壤水分动态的物理过程模型。模型以ld为步长，可以模拟多种土壤质地的水分动态。利用松嫩平原4中典型土壤（碳酸盐草甸黑钙土、栗钙土、碱化盐土、草甸碱土）1997年土壤湿度观测资料对模型进行了验证，效果根理想。 在水盐平衡模型和动力学模型基础上建立了物理过程模型，来模拟土壤盐碱化动态。模型以ld为步长，适合于模拟异质性强的多层土壤水盐动态。模拟了1997年羊草及碱蓬群落下的土壤盐分、碱化度、pH值动态，并与实验资料进行了比较，模拟结果可以反映土壤盐分和碱化的季节变化规律。 模型将气候要素、土壤湿度、土壤盐分浓度、碱化度和pH值作为影响草地群落生长最重要的环境因子，在土壤水分动态和盐碱化动态模型基础上，建立了过程模型来模拟以羊草(A．chinense)、虎尾草(C.virgata)、星星草(Puccinellialenuiflora)和碱蓬(S. glauca)为建群种的4种植物群落的地上生物量、地下生物量以及枯死生物量变化动态。利用吉林省长岭的气候资料和实验资料，模拟了1991年土壤湿度动态，1991年4种群落土壤盐分、碱化度和pH值变化动态，以及1991年4种群落生长动态，并分另fj利用实验资料进行了验证，模拟效果非常理想。 在此基础上，利用模型对不同放牧强度对土壤水分动态、盐碱化动态的影响进行了评价，并探讨了对群落演替和生长的可能影响。模型选择不放牧、轻牧、重牧、过牧、极牧5种放牧强度，利用模型每15天将地上生物量分别去除0%. 25%、50%、75%和90%，并且相应改变了土壤导水特性来模拟不同的放牧强度。模拟结果表明，重牧、过牧、极牧下土壤湿度显著降低，但在轻牧下土壤温度略有上升。在不放牧时，土壤以脱盐、脱碱过程为主，而轻牧下脱盐、脱碱过程则会变缓：重牧、过牧、极牧下则以盐碱化为主。．不放牧时羊草群落一直占优势，而轻牧下则被羊草一虎尾草群落替代：虎尾草可以忍受轻的盐碱，因此在重牧F取代羊草群落成为优势种;在过牧和极牧下，土壤盐碱化非常迅速，最终只有碱蓬可以忍受强度的盐碱，这时草地变为碱蓬群落或光碱斑。不放牧下草地群落生长良好，生物量最大;轻牧下，草地群落生物量保持在中等水平;而重牧、过牧、极牧下草地生物量迅速减少。通过将每年收割的生物量进行累加，可以发现轻牧下收获的生物量总量是最大的，随着放牧强度的增加，收获的生物量迅速减少，如果同时考虑到适口性的问题，则可以发现轻牧下可 以收获最多的生物量，而过牧和极牧下只能收获极少的适口性非常差的碱蓬。 模拟结果表明，过牧是导致松嫩草地次生盐碱化最重要的原因，它不仅造成草地土壤的退化，而且加速了草地群落的次生演替。适宜的放牧强度对于保护草地免受退化，保持较高的草地生产力水平至关重要。而过牧不仅降低了草地的生产力，而且严重破坏了草地环境，引起草地的迅速退化。

Prediction and elucidation of the population dynamics of Microcystis spp. in Lake Dianchi (China) by means of artificial neural networks

Lake Dianchi is a shallow and turbid lake, located in Southwest China. Since 1985, Lake Dianchi has experienced severe cyanabacterial blooms (dominated by Microcystis spp.). In extreme cases, the algal cell densities have exceeded three billion cells per liter. To predict and elucidate the population dynamics ofMicrocystis spp. in Lake Dianchi, a neural network based model was developed. The correlation coefficient (R 2) between the predicted algal concentrations by the model and the observed values was 0.911. Sensitivity analysis was performed to clarify the algal dynamics to the changes of environmental factors. The results of a sensitivity analysis of the neural network model suggested that small increases in pH could cause significantly reduced algal abundance. Further investigations on raw data showed that the response of Microcystis spp. concentration to pH increase was dependent on algal biomass and pH level. When Microcystis spp. population and pH were moderate or low, the response of Microcystis spp. population would be more likely to be positive in Lake Dianchi; contrarily, Microcystis spp. population in Lake Dianchi would be more likely to show negative response to pH increase when Microcystis spp. population and pH were high. The paper concluded that the extremely high concentration of algal population and high pH could explain the distinctive response of Microcystis spp. population to +1 SD (standard deviation) pH increase in Lake Dianchi. And the paper also elucidated the algal dynamics to changes of other environmental factors. One SD increase of water temperature (WT) had strongest positive relationship with Microcystis spp. biomass. Chemical oxygen demand (COD) and total phosphorus (TP) had strong positive effect on Microcystis spp. abundance while total nitrogen (TN), biological oxygen demand in five days (BOD5), and dissolved oxygen had only weak relationship with Microcystis spp. concentration. And transparency (Tr) had moderate positive relationship with Microcystis spp. concentration.

Carrier channels of multimodal-sized quantum dots: A surface-mediated adatom migration picture

This paper focuses on the study of carrier channels of multimodal-sized quantum dots formed on patterned substrate by a rate-equation-based model. Surface-mediated indium adatom migration is revealed by a direct comparison between quantum dot wetting layer, which acts as carrier channel, formed on a flat substrate and on a patterned substrate. For the assessment of suitability, the carrier channel of the dot-in-well structure has also been studied by the present model, and the transition energies of the carrier channel (e.g., InGaAs quantum well) obtained from theoretical simulation agree fairly well with those obtained from the reflectance measurements.

基于安全状态域的网络评估模型

将基于攻击图的评估与依赖标准的评估相结合,提出了一种基于安全状态域(security state region,简称SSR)的网络安全评估模型(security-state-region-based evaluation model,简称SSREM).该模型将攻击的影响分为攻击能力改变和环境改变,通过两者之间的因果关系建立数学模型,提出了安全状态域趋向指数的概念,借助Matlab进行攻击趋势的曲面拟合,进而进行安全状态域的划分和网络的安全性评估.实验结果表明,依据SSREM进行的评估能够通过安全状态城和安全状态域趋向指数反映网络进入不同状态的难易程度,对网络安全性量化评估具有借鉴意义.