An application of the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy logic inference in a decision support system for forage selection

Forage selection plays a prominent role in the process of returning cultivated lands back into grasslands. The conventional method of selecting forage species can only provide attempts for problem-solving without considering the relationships among the decision factors globally. Therefore, this study is dedicated to developing a decision support system to help farmers correctly select suitable forage species for the target sites. After collecting data through a field study, we developed this decision support system. It consists of three steps: (1) the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), (2) weights determination, and (3) decision making. In the first step, six factors influencing forage growth were selected by reviewing the related references and by interviewing experts. Then a fuzzy matrix was devised to determine the weight of each factor in the second step. Finally, a gradual alternative decision support system was created to help farmers choose suitable forage species for their lands in the third step. The results showed that the AHP and fuzzy logic are useful for forage selection decision making, and the proposed system can provide accurate results in a certain area (Gansu Province) of China.

一种个体软件过程能力度量方法

个体软件过程(PSP)是由卡内基×梅隆大学软件工程研究所的Humphrey领导开发的.它是一种可用于控制、管理和改进个人工作方式的自我持续改进过程.随着工业界对软件过程改进需求的日益增长,PSP成为了软件组织为达成完全(从宏观到微观)量化过程管理研究中的一个热点课题.软件过程研究表明,高水平的个体软件过程能力是软件项目成功的关键,如何进行有效的个体软件过程能力度量是PSP中的一个核心问题.现有方法不能同时有效处理个体软件过程能力度量中的可变规模收益、多变量输入/输出以及决策者偏好问题.提出了一种综合了数据包络分析(DEA)和层次分析法(AHP)的个体软件过程能力评价方法--PSPADA,介绍了PSPADA的个体软件过程能力评价模型和核心算法(集成决策者偏好和估计规模收益).实验结果显示,PSPADA能够在考虑决策者偏好的同时,有效地进行多指标、规模收益可变的量化评估.

黄土高原沟壑区王东沟流域土地利用效益评价

依据黄土高原沟壑区王东沟流域1986-2007年生态经济系统演变过程调查、监测资料和研究成果,建立了黄土高原沟壑区王东沟流域土地利用效益评价指标体系。运用层次分析法确定指标权重,对黄土高原沟壑区王东沟流域1986-2007年的土地利用效益进行了定量评价和动态分析。结果表明:区域土地利用效益在这20余年中呈增长态势,分别于1991年、1998年、2003年达到峰值点。影响区域土地利用效益值的主要因素为区域的果业和第三产业。

普及型水下机器人模块连接结构综合分析研究

针对普及型模块化自治水下机器人的成本、强度、模块化程度、长度及拆装方便程度五个影响因素,运用层次分析的方法进行分析比较,从而在普及型模块化自治水下机器人的三个模块连接结构中的选出最优的拉杆连接结构。

水资源分配的决策模型及应用

水资源规划是一个复杂的系统规划问题,所以,在水资源规划中,含有大量的不精确的统计数据和模糊关系。由于这些特点,水资源规划必须用特殊的方法来解决。 本文将层次分析法(AHP)和模糊规划(Fuzzy Programming)方法相结合,形成了一种多目标规划的求解方法,并应用于大凌河流域水资源规划研究的课题中,通过实际分析可以看到,这种方法具有较好的实用性。

土地利用总体规划环境影响评价指标体系研究——以邛崃市土地利用总体规划为例

土地利用是人类根据土地质量特性来开发利用土地，创造财富，满足人类生产和生活的需要，同时改善环境，满足人类生存需要的过程。土地利用总体规划是对未来各类用地在空间上、时间上作出总体的协调的预先安排，不仅受到一定历史背景的制约，同时也受影响于当前的社会经济发展情况。但是，国内传统的土地利用总体规划往往从狭窄的技术经济观点出发，对远期的生态环境问题、社会问题缺少考虑，将新的用地尽量安排在最便捷、最经济的地方。 由于土地利用总体规划对环境影响具有长期性、复杂性、综合性、有时还有不可逆转性等特点，迫切需要在编制土地利用总体规划时对规划区与土地利用有关的环境影响进行科学研究，把环境保护纳入土地利用活动的计划、决策和规划实施中，促进土地资源持续、协调的利用。为更好地进行土地利用总体规划环境影响评价必须首先建立相应的评价指标体系，而目前国内关于该项研究的理论和实践的相关报道都较少。 本论文在综述国内外土地利用总体规划环境影响评价的理论与实践的基础上，在国内第一批开展了相关领域的案例研究，采用理论研究和案例分析相结合的研究方法对土地利用总体规划环境影响评价方法和指标体系进行了研究，对邛崃市土地利用总体规划进行了环境影响评价，其研究的主要内容和论点如下: (1)第一次根据FAO 确定的五大原则，引入了生态用地的概念并按照价值模型构建了以土地资源可持续利用为目标的县级土地利用总体规划环境影响评价的指标体系。以生产性、稳定性、保护性、经济活力、社会可接受性五个方面作为指标层来度量土地利用总体规划的环境影响，并选取了土地利用率、土地整理率、水面指数、生态用地面积比例、耕地转化率、建设用地产值指数、公众满意度等21 个元指标作为具体的评价指标。该指标体系强调了规划方案的公众参与，便于充分吸收公众的意见和建议；并且评价指标获取容易，实用性较强。 (2)在土地利用总体规划环境影响评价方法上进行了有益的探索和尝试，由于土地利用总体规划环境影响评价的主要对象是几个拟定的规划方案，所以采用综合评分法（包括特尔斐法和层次分析法）和公众参与相结合的评价方法。应用上述指标体系和评价方法对邛崃市土地利用总体规划的三个方案进行了评价筛选，高方案最终得分为92.049；中方案最终得分为91.028；而低方案最终得分为95.541，为最优方案。 （3）开展了对土地利用总体规划替代方案和公众参与机制的研究，对公众参与的方式、程序及主要内容从理论和实践两方面进行了有益的尝试，收到了良好的效果。 （4）对邛崃市土地利用总体规划进行了环境影响评价，根据邛崃市的具体情况，对规划实施后可能造成的环境正、负面影响进行了分析和预测，提出了预防或者减轻不良环境影响的对策和措施。 Land use is a process, which is to develop land according to its mass property. Bycreating the wealth and improving the environment, it can meet the need of production,life and human survival. Land use planning, as a planning form to guide land use, issubject to the historical background, and influenced by development of economic andsociety. The land use planning in the past, from narrow economic technology view,lacking of concerning ecologic environmentand social problem, arranged new land in the most convenient and economic place. Because of complexity, comprehensive and sometimes irreversible characteristicsof environmental impact caused by land use planning which has been implemented, it isneed to carry on scientific research on environmental impact related to land use as theland use planning is forming, to bring environmental protection within the plan, policymaking and implementing of land use activity, promoting the sustainment, harmonious use of land resource. This paper, taking the readjustment of land use planning in Qionglai as an example,assessed its environmental impact of land use planning. The main contents and results arepresented as follows: (1) On the basis of the five criterions of AFO, for the first time propose county classoverall planning of land uses SEA index by inducting ecological land use andestablishing the Value factor system, according to Productivity criterion，Stabilitycriterion，Sheltered criterion，Economic livingness criterion，Social acceptabilitycriterion，the environmental impact of land use system was assessed by using Valuemodel. Through identifying the factors of environmental impact of land use planning, thepaper established the factor system of SEA of land use planning. From the land usefactors, 21 factors was chosen to assess the environmental impact degree of land useplanning, such as, index of land use degree, the rate of land collating, index of watersurface, the rate of ecological use land, cultivated land conversion ratio, forest landconversion ratio, public satisfaction degree and so on. These indexes make a point thatpublic participation of plan project fully absorb public idea and propose and the index easily get, better utility. (2) Attempt useful assessment method system of SEA of land use planning. In viewof there are no or almost no inevitable contact among the factors of SEA of land useplanning，we use AHP （Analytic Hierarchy Process） as the main assess method . Thereare three plans are compared in this paper apply the foregoing index and assessmentmethod. The high plan finally score is 92.049，while the middle plan is 91.028. The lowplan score is 95.541，is the best one，as the selected plan. (3) Carry on the research of the alternative scheme of overall planing of land useand public participation，to the fashion ，procedure and object matter carry out helpfulattempt from theory to practice，the results is good. （4）Took place SEA of Qionglai County overall planing of land use，according to thecircumstance of Qionglai，we analyze and forecast the positive and negative affect afterthe plan implement，and put forward the countermeasure and means to prevent or abatebad environmental impact.

bridge the gap between software test process and business value: a case study

Chinese Academy of Sciences (ISCAS)

网络联盟企业中的设计伙伴选择方法

如何选择网络联盟企业的成员是组建网络联盟企业的关键。采用层次分析法建立了选择设计伙伴的数学模型，并在Ｍａｔｌａｂ环境下开发了一个设计伙伴选择系统。

三峡库区堆积层斜坡稳定性分级与应用研究

Considering the lacking of standard for the classification of Accumulative slopes so far, research working was conducted based on the results of geological investigation, data analysis and experiment carried out in Wanzhou. By mean of statistical method and grey system, the author studied in detail inflationary factors to Accumulative slopes. In order to study the mechanism of Rock-Soil Aggregate (RSA), numerical testing method was used. Coordinates in the two and three dimensional space and its corresponding rock fragments in the sample were generated randomly by VB and Particle flow code. After being built the models of RSA with different rock content, uniaxial and triaxial numerical simulation tests were carried out respectively. In order to study the effect of rainfall in Accumulative slopes, in situ infiltration testing had been conducted on site in Wanzhou, Three Gorges Area. Relationship between the infiltration rate and amount of precipitation has been obtained. Eleven factors are considered in the classification of Accumulative slopes in this paper.(1)On the basis of four basic factors and four inducing factors, sum-and-difference method for the classification system has been built. (2)After weight of factors being determined by analytic hierarchy process and membership function of Accumulative slopes stability being built in virtue of fuzzy mathematics, AHP-FM model of Accumulative slopes stability has been completed. In the end of this paper, having been applied on stability of Accumulative slopes in Three Gorge area and compared with result by limit equilibrium, classification system has good effect.

黄土高原沟坡地土地生产力评价的指标体系与评价方法

通过对渭北黄土高原地区沟坡地土壤理化性质的分析和对当地社会经济状况的调查研究,应用层次分析法对沟坡地上地自然生产力和现实生产力进行了分析和评价。在分析过程中,把当地主要造林树种根系垂直分布特征及其根系抗旱性特性纳入了分析评价体系。结果表明,嘴头村和西坡村不同树种沟坡地上刺槐(Robinia pseudoacacia)的自然生产力属于中等稍微偏上水平,而山杏(Prunus armeniacia var.ansu)、油松(Pinus tabulaeformis)和侧柏(Platycladus orientalis)的自然生产力水平则较低。两地沟坡地上的现实生产力计算结果则证明刺槐和山杏两个树种表现出了较高的水平,具有较好的发展前途;而油松和侧柏的现实生产力水平则较低,其发展推广受到了限制。群众对沟坡开发治理的态度和对开发方案的认可对沟坡开发的成功起到了重要作用。

陕北黄土高原可持续发展评价研究

通过对陕北黄土高原可持续发展评价指标体系和方法的初步研究 ,设计出了包括 1个高级综合指标——可持续发展综合指数、人口状况等 5个基本指标和人口自然增长率等 30个元素指标的层次性指标体系结构框架 ,熵技术支持下确定可持续发展指标权重的层次分析法 ,以及由递阶多层次综合评价、主成份分析和回归分析等数学方法所集成的可持续发展全面综合评价模型 ,并依次对该地区可持续发展现状及趋势进行了全面分析评价

a fuzzy-based method for evaluating the trustworthiness of software processes

University of Paderborn; Fraunhofer Inst. Exp. Softw. Eng. (IESE); Chinese Academy of Science (ISCAS)

孤岛油田曲流河微相单砂体储层建筑结构及挖潜方向研究

In the intermediary and later stage of oil field development, remaining oil disperses fiercely, the contradiction in the layer has become the main problem and the distribution of remaining oil is transforming to the difference of single sand-body. So, the fine description research of reservoir is becoming a tendency and the methods of remaining oil research need new developments. In the research of “The Single-sand-body Architectural Element and Potentiality Analysis Research of Meandering River, GuDao Oil Field”, the research principle is analytical hierarchy process and schema prescription what are reservoir fine description methods under the condition of dense well pattern. The knowledge of regional sedimentary system and sedimentary facies is the foundation of this research. According to the 3D distribution model of the microfacies sand-body of fluvial facies, stratigraphic unit classification & coenocorrelation of 154 wells are completed in the research of meandering river sand-body in Ng3-4. In this research, the 3D distribution of microfacies sand-body in the main layers are settled. The architectural element model of Ng4 point bar is analysed using the drill core and FMI data. According to the overgrow model of point bar, the surfaces of lateral accretion is traced and the architectural element model of point bar is settled. In the research, the control of micro-facies sand-body of meandering river to the distribution of remaining oil is analysed and the potential area is proposed. All these will play an important role in the development of GuDao oil field. In this research, abundant of logging data, drill core data and production performance data are used to analyse the contributing factor of single sand-body in the Ng3-4 meandering river. Using the technology of geological modeling, all that are researched including the 3D distribution scales of meandering river point bar, the control affection of inner lateral accretion layer to the distribution of oil & gas and remaining. Then, the way of remaining oil development in the sand-body of meandering river is improved. The innovation of the research technology includes (1) the presentation of the conception and research methods of micro-facies sand-body (2) enriching the content of reservoir architectural element research and (3) to renew the research method of remaining oil analysis. The research has practiced with obvious effect.(1)It is deepened into understand the river facies reservoir construction of Gudao oil field, By Building the reservoir construction and studying the effect of diffent deposit or geological interface to fluid partition and to the distribution of the remaining oil, we improved the understanding to the distribution of the remaining oil；(2)By building the distribution mod of the remaining oil in the reservoir construction and making the remaining oil description detailed,the development direction of old oil field is more clear；(3)Expanded the application scales of the horizontal well and enhanced the application effects of the horizontal well technique , we designed and drilled 23 ports horizontal wells in all , the cumulative hydrocarbon production is 10.6*104 t；(4) According to the findings of the internal building structure in reservoir of the fluvial facies in the region of interest, and uniting the injection/production corresponding states、the producing history and the dynamic monitoring documents of the oil/water wells in the flooding units , we researched the residual oil distribution in the point bar , and found the distribution regular patterns of the remaining oil, and comprehended the distribution of the remaining oil . In base of that , we proceeded the optimizing designs of the oil well potentialities , and advanced the effect of the treatment potentials . It is proved that , it was very important that internal building structure research of the single sand body of reservoir for guiding the high efficiency potentialities of the remaining oil in the high water cut stage .

黄骅坳陷大港探区油气资源潜力与资源结构预测

Facing the problems that Dagang region of Huanghua Depression has high exploration degree and its remaining resource potential and structure are not clear, the theory of Petroleum Accumulation System (PAS) is applied to divide and evaluate the oil/gas systems quantitatively. Then, the petroleum accumulation systems are taken as units to forecast and analyse the oil/gas resources and their structure using statistical methods of sampling analysis of discovery process model and generalized pareto distribution model. The exploration benefit of the unit is estimated using exploration simulation methods. On the basis of the above study, the resource potential of Huanghua Depression is discussed.Huanghua Depression can be diveded into four petroleum accumulation systems, i.e. North PAS5 Middle Qibei PAS, Middle Qinan PAS and South PAS. Each PAS can be diveded futher into several sub- PASs. Using the basic princple of Analytical Hierarchy Process, the method of quantitative evaluation of PAS is established. Then the elements and maturity of PAS are evaluated quantitatively.Taking migration and accumulation units and sub-PASs as prediction units, sampling analysis of discovery process model and generalized pareto distribution model are applied comparatively to forecast the resource structure of eight migration and accumulation units in six PASs of medium-high exploration degree. The results of these two methods are contrasted and analyzed. An examination of X2 data of these two models from exploration samples shows that generalized pareto distribution model is more effective than sampling analysis of discovery process model in Huanghua Depression. It is concluded that minimum and maximum size of reservoir and discovery sequence of reservoirs are the sensitive parameters of these two methods.Aiming at the difficult problem of forecast in low exploration degree, by analysis of relativity between resource parameters and their possible influential geological factors, forecast models for resource parameters were established by liner regressing. Then the resource structure is forecasted in PASs of low exploration degree.Based on the forecast results, beginning with the analysis of exploration history and benefit variation, the exploration benefit variation of the above PASs is fitted effectively using exploration simulation method. The single well exploration benefit of remaining oil resource is also forecasted reasonably.The results of resource forecast show that the total oil resources ofHuanghua Depression amount to 2.28 b illion ton. By the end o f 2 003, the accumulative total proved oil reserve is 0.90 billion ton and the remaining oil resources is 1.38 billion ton. The remaining oil resource is concentrated in Kongdian-Dengmingshi, Banqiao-Beidagang, Qidong-Yangerzhuang and Baidong-Qizhong sub-PASs.